-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 1
/
Copy pathpart-three-rubber-meets-the-road.html
412 lines (369 loc) · 37.9 KB
/
part-three-rubber-meets-the-road.html
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="" xml:lang="">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge" />
<title>Part Three – Rubber meets the road | Probabilistic Reasoning: from an elementary point of view</title>
<meta name="description" content="Learning is inference." />
<meta name="generator" content="bookdown 0.22 and GitBook 2.6.7" />
<meta property="og:title" content="Part Three – Rubber meets the road | Probabilistic Reasoning: from an elementary point of view" />
<meta property="og:type" content="book" />
<meta property="og:description" content="Learning is inference." />
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary" />
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Part Three – Rubber meets the road | Probabilistic Reasoning: from an elementary point of view" />
<meta name="twitter:description" content="Learning is inference." />
<meta name="author" content="William G. Foote" />
<meta name="date" content="2021-07-16" />
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1" />
<meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes" />
<meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style" content="black" />
<link rel="prev" href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"/>
<link rel="next" href="gausss-robots-again.html"/>
<script src="libs/jquery-2.2.3/jquery.min.js"></script>
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/style.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-table.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-bookdown.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-highlight.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-search.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-fontsettings.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/css/plugin-clipboard.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="libs/anchor-sections-1.0.1/anchor-sections.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/anchor-sections-1.0.1/anchor-sections.js"></script>
<script src="libs/kePrint-0.0.1/kePrint.js"></script>
<link href="libs/lightable-0.0.1/lightable.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/htmlwidgets-1.5.1/htmlwidgets.js"></script>
<script src="libs/plotly-binding-4.9.2.2/plotly.js"></script>
<script src="libs/typedarray-0.1/typedarray.min.js"></script>
<link href="libs/crosstalk-1.1.0.1/css/crosstalk.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/crosstalk-1.1.0.1/js/crosstalk.min.js"></script>
<link href="libs/plotly-htmlwidgets-css-1.52.2/plotly-htmlwidgets.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/plotly-main-1.52.2/plotly-latest.min.js"></script>
<style type="text/css">
a.sourceLine { display: inline-block; line-height: 1.25; }
a.sourceLine { pointer-events: none; color: inherit; text-decoration: inherit; }
a.sourceLine:empty { height: 1.2em; }
.sourceCode { overflow: visible; }
code.sourceCode { white-space: pre; position: relative; }
pre.sourceCode { margin: 0; }
@media screen {
div.sourceCode { overflow: auto; }
}
@media print {
code.sourceCode { white-space: pre-wrap; }
a.sourceLine { text-indent: -1em; padding-left: 1em; }
}
pre.numberSource a.sourceLine
{ position: relative; left: -4em; }
pre.numberSource a.sourceLine::before
{ content: attr(title);
position: relative; left: -1em; text-align: right; vertical-align: baseline;
border: none; pointer-events: all; display: inline-block;
-webkit-touch-callout: none; -webkit-user-select: none;
-khtml-user-select: none; -moz-user-select: none;
-ms-user-select: none; user-select: none;
padding: 0 4px; width: 4em;
color: #aaaaaa;
}
pre.numberSource { margin-left: 3em; border-left: 1px solid #aaaaaa; padding-left: 4px; }
div.sourceCode
{ }
@media screen {
a.sourceLine::before { text-decoration: underline; }
}
code span.al { color: #ff0000; font-weight: bold; } /* Alert */
code span.an { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* Annotation */
code span.at { color: #7d9029; } /* Attribute */
code span.bn { color: #40a070; } /* BaseN */
code span.bu { } /* BuiltIn */
code span.cf { color: #007020; font-weight: bold; } /* ControlFlow */
code span.ch { color: #4070a0; } /* Char */
code span.cn { color: #880000; } /* Constant */
code span.co { color: #60a0b0; font-style: italic; } /* Comment */
code span.cv { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* CommentVar */
code span.do { color: #ba2121; font-style: italic; } /* Documentation */
code span.dt { color: #902000; } /* DataType */
code span.dv { color: #40a070; } /* DecVal */
code span.er { color: #ff0000; font-weight: bold; } /* Error */
code span.ex { } /* Extension */
code span.fl { color: #40a070; } /* Float */
code span.fu { color: #06287e; } /* Function */
code span.im { } /* Import */
code span.in { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* Information */
code span.kw { color: #007020; font-weight: bold; } /* Keyword */
code span.op { color: #666666; } /* Operator */
code span.ot { color: #007020; } /* Other */
code span.pp { color: #bc7a00; } /* Preprocessor */
code span.sc { color: #4070a0; } /* SpecialChar */
code span.ss { color: #bb6688; } /* SpecialString */
code span.st { color: #4070a0; } /* String */
code span.va { color: #19177c; } /* Variable */
code span.vs { color: #4070a0; } /* VerbatimString */
code span.wa { color: #60a0b0; font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; } /* Warning */
</style>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="style.css" type="text/css" />
</head>
<body>
<div class="book without-animation with-summary font-size-2 font-family-1" data-basepath=".">
<div class="book-summary">
<nav role="navigation">
<ul class="summary">
<li><a href="./">Probabilistic Reasoning</a></li>
<li class="divider"></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Prologomena for a Future Statistics</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#why-this-book"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Why this book</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#premises"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Premises</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#so-many-questions-and-too-little-time"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>So many questions and too little time</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#dont-we-know-everything-we-need-to-know"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Don’t we know everything we need to know?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#what-we-desire"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>What we desire</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#frequentist-or-probabilistic"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Frequentist or probabilistic?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#a-work-in-progress"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>A work in progress</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="part-one-the-basics.html"><a href="part-one-the-basics.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Part One – The Basics</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1" data-path="counting-the-ways.html"><a href="counting-the-ways.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1</b> Counting the Ways</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.1" data-path="counting-the-ways.html"><a href="counting-the-ways.html#plausibility-probability-and-information"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.1</b> Plausibility, probability and information</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.2" data-path="counting-the-ways.html"><a href="counting-the-ways.html#some-surprise"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.2</b> Some Surprise</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.3" data-path="counting-the-ways.html"><a href="counting-the-ways.html#how-many-ways"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.3</b> How many ways?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.4" data-path="counting-the-ways.html"><a href="counting-the-ways.html#back-to-data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.4</b> Back to data</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.5" data-path="counting-the-ways.html"><a href="counting-the-ways.html#checking-our-grip-on-reality"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.5</b> Checking our grip on reality</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2</b> Probability for Real People</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#can-we-rationally-reason"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1</b> Can we rationally reason?</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.1" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#priors-what-we-think-might-happen"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.1</b> Priors: what we think might happen</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.2" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#likelihoods-thinking-about-the-data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.2</b> Likelihoods: thinking about the data</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.3" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#altogether-now"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.3</b> Altogether now</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1.4" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#updating-beliefs"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1.4</b> Updating beliefs</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.2" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#whats-next"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.2</b> What’s next?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.3" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#try-this-out-if-this-is-reasonable"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.3</b> Try this out, if this is reasonable</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.4" data-path="probability-for-real-people.html"><a href="probability-for-real-people.html#endnotes"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.4</b> Endnotes</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="part-two-the-fantastic-four.html"><a href="part-two-the-fantastic-four.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Part Two – The Fantastic Four</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3</b> Algorithmics 1: counting made easy</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.1" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#whats-an-algorithm"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.1</b> What’s an algorithm?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.2" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#our-first-job-unobserved-hypotheses"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.2</b> Our first job: unobserved hypotheses</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.3" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#possibilities-abound"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.3</b> Possibilities abound</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.4" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#observed-data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.4</b> Observed data</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.5" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#is-anything-really-plausible"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.5</b> Is anything really plausible?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.6" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#interpretation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.6</b> Interpretation</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.7" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#locales"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.7</b> 10 locales?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.8" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#next"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.8</b> Next</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.9" data-path="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html"><a href="algorithmics-1-counting-made-easy.html#references-and-endnotes"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.9</b> References and endnotes</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4" data-path="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><a href="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4</b> Algorithmics 2: binomial ups and downs</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.1" data-path="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><a href="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html#anatomy-of-an-algorithm"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.1</b> Anatomy of an algorithm</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.2" data-path="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><a href="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html#ups-and-downs"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.2</b> Ups and downs</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.3" data-path="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><a href="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html#dispensing-with-the-bag-of-beans"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.3</b> Dispensing with the bag of beans</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.4" data-path="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><a href="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html#great-expectations"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.4</b> Great expectations</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.5" data-path="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><a href="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html#then-there-were-eleven"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.5</b> Then there were eleven</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4.6" data-path="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html"><a href="algorithmics-2-binomial-ups-and-downs.html#references-and-endnotes-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4.6</b> References and endnotes</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5</b> Algorithmics 3: playing musical raptors</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.1" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#is-there-more-to-life-than-binary"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.1</b> Is there more to life than binary?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.2" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#exploring-what-we-do-know"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.2</b> Exploring what we do know</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.2.1" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#summarize-the-data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.2.1</b> Summarize the data</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.3" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#whence-the-binomial-generates-the-poisson"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.3</b> Whence the binomial generates the Poisson</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.4" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#approximating-poisson"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.4</b> Approximating Poisson</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.5" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#zooming-in-for-a-closer-look"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.5</b> Zooming in for a closer look</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.6" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#probability-intervals"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.6</b> Probability intervals</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5.7" data-path="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html"><a href="algorithmics-3-playing-musical-raptors.html#references-and-endnotes-2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5.7</b> References and endnotes</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6</b> Algorithmics 4: Gaussian blues</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.1" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#while-we-wait-for-the-other-shoe-to-drop"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.1</b> While we wait for the other shoe to drop</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.2" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#is-there-more-to-life-than-just-counting"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.2</b> Is there more to life than just counting?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.3" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#gauss-gauss-where-is-gauss"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.3</b> Gauss, Gauss, where is Gauss?</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.3.1" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#full-time-equivalent"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.3.1</b> Full time equivalent</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.3.2" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#compound-growth"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.3.2</b> Compound growth</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.3.3" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#log-products"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.3.3</b> Log products</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.4" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#assume-and-simplify"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.4</b> Assume and simplify</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.5" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#how-do-we-get-there"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.5</b> How do we get there?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.6" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#grid-lock"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.6</b> Grid lock</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.7" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#onward-we-march"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.7</b> Onward we march</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.8" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#what-does-it-all-mean"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.8</b> What does it all mean?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.9" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#a-provisional-finding"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.9</b> A provisional finding</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.10" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#just-one-more-thing"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.10</b> Just one more thing</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.10.1" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#one-way"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.10.1</b> One way</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.10.2" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#or-the-other"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.10.2</b> Or the other</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.11" data-path="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html"><a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html#references-and-endnotes-3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.11</b> References and endnotes</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="part-three-rubber-meets-the-road.html"><a href="part-three-rubber-meets-the-road.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Part Three – Rubber meets the road</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7" data-path="gausss-robots-again.html"><a href="gausss-robots-again.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7</b> Gauss’s robots again</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.1" data-path="gausss-robots-again.html"><a href="gausss-robots-again.html#an-auspicious-result"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.1</b> An auspicious result</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.2" data-path="gausss-robots-again.html"><a href="gausss-robots-again.html#tale-of-two-populations"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.2</b> Tale of two populations</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.3" data-path="gausss-robots-again.html"><a href="gausss-robots-again.html#education-is-the-key"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.3</b> Education is the key</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.4" data-path="gausss-robots-again.html"><a href="gausss-robots-again.html#sample-until-we-drop"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.4</b> Sample until we drop</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.5" data-path="gausss-robots-again.html"><a href="gausss-robots-again.html#results-results-we-want-results"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.5</b> Results, results, we want results!</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.6" data-path="gausss-robots-again.html"><a href="gausss-robots-again.html#yet-another-rocky-road-we-have-traveled"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.6</b> Yet another rocky road we have traveled</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8</b> Gauss’s robots go rogue</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.1" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#spreadsheets-really"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.1</b> Spreadsheets? Really?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.2" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#an-auspicious-result-again"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.2</b> An auspicious result again?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.3" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#the-most-uninformative-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.3</b> The most uninformative distribution</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.4" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#simulate-until-morale-improves"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.4</b> Simulate until morale improves!</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.5" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#is-it-true-that-gauss-is-in-the-house-again"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.5</b> Is it true that Gauss is in the house again?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.6" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#and-again"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.6</b> And again?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.7" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#the-association"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.7</b> The Association</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.8" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#a-tale-of-coir"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.8</b> A tale of coir</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.8.1" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#business-situation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.8.1</b> Business Situation</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.8.2" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#business-questions"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.8.2</b> Business Questions</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.8.3" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.8.3</b> Data</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.8.4" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#analysis"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.8.4</b> Analysis</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.8.5" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#results"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.8.5</b> Results</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.9" data-path="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html"><a href="gausss-robots-go-rogue.html#endnotes-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.9</b> Endnotes</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9</b> Credible interval training?</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.1" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#imagine-this"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.1</b> Imagine this…</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.2" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#try-this-on-for-size"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.2</b> Try this on for size</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.3" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#what-about-the-sampled-standard-deviation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.3</b> What about the sampled standard deviation?</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.3.1" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#heres-the-promised-derivation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.3.1</b> Here’s the promised derivation</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.4" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#probability-intervals-1-known-population-standard-deviation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.4</b> Probability intervals 1: known population standard deviation</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.5" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#our-first-procedure-emerges"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.5</b> Our first procedure emerges</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.6" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#probability-intervals-2-on-to-the-unknown-standard-deviation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.6</b> Probability intervals 2: on to the unknown standard deviation</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.6.1" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#by-the-way-who-is-student"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.6.1</b> By the way, who is Student?</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.7" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#our-second-procedure"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.7</b> Our second procedure</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.8" data-path="credible-interval-training.html"><a href="credible-interval-training.html#exercises"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.8</b> Exercises</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10</b> Hypothetically Speaking</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.1" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#imagine-this-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.1</b> Imagine this…</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.1.1" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#for-those-who-really-want-to-or-even-need-to"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.1.1</b> For those who really want to, or even need to</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.1.2" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#finally-an-excel-screenshot"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.1.2</b> Finally an excel screenshot</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.2" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#can-we-be-wrong"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.2</b> Can we be wrong?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.3" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#yet-another-way"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.3</b> Yet another way</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.3.1" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#population-standard-deviation-known"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.3.1</b> Population standard deviation known</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.3.2" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#control-is-probability"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.3.2</b> Control is probability</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.3.3" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#on-to-the-unknown"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.3.3</b> On to the unknown</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.3.4" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#on-with-our-story"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.3.4</b> On with our story…</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.4" data-path="hypothetically-speaking.html"><a href="hypothetically-speaking.html#exercises-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.4</b> Exercises</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="part-four-the-test-of-a-relationship.html"><a href="part-four-the-test-of-a-relationship.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Part Four – The Test of a Relationship</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11</b> Relationships Put to the Test</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.1" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#its-not-so-hard-to-imagine-this"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.1</b> It’s not so hard to imagine this…</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.2" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#the-maths-the-maths"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.2</b> The maths! The maths!</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.2.1" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#what-did-we-all-expect"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.2.1</b> What did we all expect?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.2.2" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#walking-the-straight-line"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.2.2</b> Walking the straight line</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.2.3" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#a-short-variance-diatribe"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.2.3</b> A short variance diatribe</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.3" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#does-education-matter"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.3</b> Does education matter?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.4" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#back-to-the-business-at-hand"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.4</b> Back to the business at hand</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.5" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#does-it-really-matter"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.5</b> Does it really matter?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.6" data-path="relationships-put-to-the-test.html"><a href="relationships-put-to-the-test.html#references-and-endnotes-4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.6</b> References and endnotes</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12</b> The journey continues</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.1" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#backing-up"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.1</b> Backing up</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.2" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#fences-and-neighbors"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.2</b> Fences and neighbors</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.2.1" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#tukeys-fences."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.2.1</b> Tukey’s fences.</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.2.2" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#credibility-intervals."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.2.2</b> Credibility intervals.</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.3" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#binomial-raptors."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.3</b> Binomial raptors.</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.3.1" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#cloudy-or-clear."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.3.1</b> Cloudy or clear.</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.3.2" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#binomial-sightings."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.3.2</b> Binomial sightings.</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.3.3" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#poisson-raptors."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.3.3</b> Poisson raptors.</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.3.4" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#poisson-expectations."><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.3.4</b> Poisson expectations.</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.4" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#managing-relationships"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.4</b> Managing relationships</a><ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.4.1" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#drawing-the-line"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.4.1</b> Drawing the line</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.4.2" data-path="the-journey-continues.html"><a href="the-journey-continues.html#does-it-matter"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.4.2</b> Does it matter?</a></li>
</ul></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="references.html"><a href="references.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>References</a></li>
<li class="divider"></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/rstudio/bookdown" target="blank">Published with bookdown</a></li>
</ul>
</nav>
</div>
<div class="book-body">
<div class="body-inner">
<div class="book-header" role="navigation">
<h1>
<i class="fa fa-circle-o-notch fa-spin"></i><a href="./">Probabilistic Reasoning: from an elementary point of view</a>
</h1>
</div>
<div class="page-wrapper" tabindex="-1" role="main">
<div class="page-inner">
<section class="normal" id="section-">
<div id="part-three-rubber-meets-the-road" class="section level1 unnumbered">
<h1>Part Three – Rubber meets the road</h1>
<ul>
<li><p>Samples meet the population</p></li>
<li><p>Credibility meets confidence</p></li>
<li><p>A death knell for the null?</p></li>
</ul>
</div>
</section>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<a href="algorithmics-4-gaussian-blues.html" class="navigation navigation-prev " aria-label="Previous page"><i class="fa fa-angle-left"></i></a>
<a href="gausss-robots-again.html" class="navigation navigation-next " aria-label="Next page"><i class="fa fa-angle-right"></i></a>
</div>
</div>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/app.min.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/lunr.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/clipboard.min.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-search.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-sharing.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-fontsettings.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-bookdown.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/jquery.highlight.js"></script>
<script src="libs/gitbook-2.6.7/js/plugin-clipboard.js"></script>
<script>
gitbook.require(["gitbook"], function(gitbook) {
gitbook.start({
"sharing": {
"github": false,
"facebook": true,
"twitter": true,
"linkedin": false,
"weibo": false,
"instapaper": false,
"vk": false,
"whatsapp": false,
"all": ["facebook", "twitter", "linkedin", "weibo", "instapaper"]
},
"fontsettings": {
"theme": "white",
"family": "sans",
"size": 2
},
"edit": {
"link": null,
"text": null
},
"history": {
"link": null,
"text": null
},
"view": {
"link": null,
"text": null
},
"download": ["book-probability.pdf", "book-probability.epub"],
"toc": {
"collapse": "subsection"
}
});
});
</script>
<!-- dynamically load mathjax for compatibility with self-contained -->
<script>
(function () {
var script = document.createElement("script");
script.type = "text/javascript";
var src = "true";
if (src === "" || src === "true") src = "https://mathjax.rstudio.com/latest/MathJax.js?config=TeX-MML-AM_CHTML";
if (location.protocol !== "file:")
if (/^https?:/.test(src))
src = src.replace(/^https?:/, '');
script.src = src;
document.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(script);
})();
</script>
</body>
</html>