项目一：Titanic数据集乘客获救预测.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "背景说明：泰坦尼克沉船是震惊世界的海难事件，1912年4月15日，在它的处女航中，撞上冰川后沉没。造成了超过1502人死亡，该事件也引起了全世界对于船舶安全法规的重视。在这场灾难中，有一些因素也导致了部分乘客的获救机率比较高，如老人，小孩，上流阶层，我们的目标是利用机器学习算法对获救乘客就行准确的预测。"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "该数据集由两部分组成：\n",
    "* 训练集：891条\n",
    "* 测试集：418条"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 数据特征说明"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "字段           含义\n",
    "_________________________\n",
    "* PassengerID: 乘客编号\n",
    "* Survived：是否获救（获救：1，没有获救：0）\n",
    "* Pclass：船舱等级\n",
    "* Name：姓名\n",
    "* Sex：性别\n",
    "* Age：年龄\n",
    "* SibSp：兄弟姐妹和妻子的数量\n",
    "* Parch：孩子和老人的数量\n",
    "* Ticket：船票编号\n",
    "* Fare：船票价格\n",
    "* Cabin：船舱编号\n",
    "* Embarked：登陆港口"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 数据处理"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "%matplotlib inline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "(891, 12) (418, 11)\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train = pd.read_csv('D:\\\\Py_dataset\\\\train.csv')\n",
    "df_test = pd.read_csv('D:\\\\Py_dataset\\\\test.csv')\n",
    "print(df_train.shape,df_test.shape)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PassengerId</th>\n",
       "      <th>Survived</th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Name</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sex</th>\n",
       "      <th>Age</th>\n",
       "      <th>SibSp</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ticket</th>\n",
       "      <th>Fare</th>\n",
       "      <th>Cabin</th>\n",
       "      <th>Embarked</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Braund, Mr. Owen Harris</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>A/5 21171</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.2500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PC 17599</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.2833</td>\n",
       "      <td>C85</td>\n",
       "      <td>C</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Heikkinen, Miss. Laina</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>STON/O2. 3101282</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.9250</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113803</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.1000</td>\n",
       "      <td>C123</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Allen, Mr. William Henry</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>373450</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PassengerId  Survived  Pclass  \\\n",
       "0            1         0       3   \n",
       "1            2         1       1   \n",
       "2            3         1       3   \n",
       "3            4         1       1   \n",
       "4            5         0       3   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                Name     Sex   Age  SibSp  \\\n",
       "0                            Braund, Mr. Owen Harris    male  22.0      1   \n",
       "1  Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...  female  38.0      1   \n",
       "2                             Heikkinen, Miss. Laina  female  26.0      0   \n",
       "3       Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)  female  35.0      1   \n",
       "4                           Allen, Mr. William Henry    male  35.0      0   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Parch            Ticket     Fare Cabin Embarked  \n",
       "0      0         A/5 21171   7.2500   NaN        S  \n",
       "1      0          PC 17599  71.2833   C85        C  \n",
       "2      0  STON/O2. 3101282   7.9250   NaN        S  \n",
       "3      0            113803  53.1000  C123        S  \n",
       "4      0            373450   8.0500   NaN        S  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th>PassengerId</th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Name</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sex</th>\n",
       "      <th>Age</th>\n",
       "      <th>SibSp</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ticket</th>\n",
       "      <th>Fare</th>\n",
       "      <th>Cabin</th>\n",
       "      <th>Embarked</th>\n",
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       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>892</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kelly, Mr. James</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>330911</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.8292</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Q</td>\n",
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       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>893</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wilkes, Mrs. James (Ellen Needs)</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>47.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>363272</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0000</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>894</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>Myles, Mr. Thomas Francis</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>240276</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.6875</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>895</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wirz, Mr. Albert</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>315154</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.6625</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>896</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hirvonen, Mrs. Alexander (Helga E Lindqvist)</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3101298</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.2875</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
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      "text/plain": [
       "   PassengerId  Pclass                                          Name     Sex  \\\n",
       "0          892       3                              Kelly, Mr. James    male   \n",
       "1          893       3              Wilkes, Mrs. James (Ellen Needs)  female   \n",
       "2          894       2                     Myles, Mr. Thomas Francis    male   \n",
       "3          895       3                              Wirz, Mr. Albert    male   \n",
       "4          896       3  Hirvonen, Mrs. Alexander (Helga E Lindqvist)  female   \n",
       "\n",
       "    Age  SibSp  Parch   Ticket     Fare Cabin Embarked  \n",
       "0  34.5      0      0   330911   7.8292   NaN        Q  \n",
       "1  47.0      1      0   363272   7.0000   NaN        S  \n",
       "2  62.0      0      0   240276   9.6875   NaN        Q  \n",
       "3  27.0      0      0   315154   8.6625   NaN        S  \n",
       "4  22.0      1      1  3101298  12.2875   NaN        S  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_test.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
      "RangeIndex: 891 entries, 0 to 890\n",
      "Data columns (total 12 columns):\n",
      "PassengerId    891 non-null int64\n",
      "Survived       891 non-null int64\n",
      "Pclass         891 non-null int64\n",
      "Name           891 non-null object\n",
      "Sex            891 non-null object\n",
      "Age            714 non-null float64\n",
      "SibSp          891 non-null int64\n",
      "Parch          891 non-null int64\n",
      "Ticket         891 non-null object\n",
      "Fare           891 non-null float64\n",
      "Cabin          204 non-null object\n",
      "Embarked       889 non-null object\n",
      "dtypes: float64(2), int64(5), object(5)\n",
      "memory usage: 83.6+ KB\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train.info()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "PassengerId      0\n",
       "Survived         0\n",
       "Pclass           0\n",
       "Name             0\n",
       "Sex              0\n",
       "Age            177\n",
       "SibSp            0\n",
       "Parch            0\n",
       "Ticket           0\n",
       "Fare             0\n",
       "Cabin          687\n",
       "Embarked         2\n",
       "dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 6,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train.isnull().sum()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "可以看出\"Age\",\"Cabin\",\"Embarked\"三个特征存在缺失值。"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PassengerId</th>\n",
       "      <th>Survived</th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Age</th>\n",
       "      <th>SibSp</th>\n",
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       "      <th>Fare</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>count</th>\n",
       "      <td>891.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>891.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>891.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>714.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>891.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>891.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>891.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>mean</th>\n",
       "      <td>446.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.383838</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.308642</td>\n",
       "      <td>29.699118</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.523008</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.381594</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.204208</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>std</th>\n",
       "      <td>257.353842</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.486592</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.836071</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.526497</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.102743</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.806057</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.693429</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>min</th>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.420000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25%</th>\n",
       "      <td>223.500000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.125000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.910400</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>50%</th>\n",
       "      <td>446.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.454200</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>75%</th>\n",
       "      <td>668.500000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>max</th>\n",
       "      <td>891.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>80.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>512.329200</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       PassengerId    Survived      Pclass         Age       SibSp  \\\n",
       "count   891.000000  891.000000  891.000000  714.000000  891.000000   \n",
       "mean    446.000000    0.383838    2.308642   29.699118    0.523008   \n",
       "std     257.353842    0.486592    0.836071   14.526497    1.102743   \n",
       "min       1.000000    0.000000    1.000000    0.420000    0.000000   \n",
       "25%     223.500000    0.000000    2.000000   20.125000    0.000000   \n",
       "50%     446.000000    0.000000    3.000000   28.000000    0.000000   \n",
       "75%     668.500000    1.000000    3.000000   38.000000    1.000000   \n",
       "max     891.000000    1.000000    3.000000   80.000000    8.000000   \n",
       "\n",
       "            Parch        Fare  \n",
       "count  891.000000  891.000000  \n",
       "mean     0.381594   32.204208  \n",
       "std      0.806057   49.693429  \n",
       "min      0.000000    0.000000  \n",
       "25%      0.000000    7.910400  \n",
       "50%      0.000000   14.454200  \n",
       "75%      0.000000   31.000000  \n",
       "max      6.000000  512.329200  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train.describe()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 特征选取"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "不做复杂的特征工程，采用最快速的方法做一个预测。"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**数据空值处理**\n",
    "* 1.Cabin列缺失值数量较多，直接填充会对最终结果产生较大的误差影响，暂时不考虑该特征。\n",
    "* 2.Age列对最终结果的影响较大，取Age的中位数对空值进行填充。\n",
    "* 3.PassengerID为连续的序列值，对最终结果没有影响，不考虑该特征。"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "df_train['Age'] = df_train['Age'].fillna(df_train['Age'].median())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
      "RangeIndex: 891 entries, 0 to 890\n",
      "Data columns (total 12 columns):\n",
      "PassengerId    891 non-null int64\n",
      "Survived       891 non-null int64\n",
      "Pclass         891 non-null int64\n",
      "Name           891 non-null object\n",
      "Sex            891 non-null object\n",
      "Age            891 non-null float64\n",
      "SibSp          891 non-null int64\n",
      "Parch          891 non-null int64\n",
      "Ticket         891 non-null object\n",
      "Fare           891 non-null float64\n",
      "Cabin          204 non-null object\n",
      "Embarked       889 non-null object\n",
      "dtypes: float64(2), int64(5), object(5)\n",
      "memory usage: 83.6+ KB\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train.info()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### 线性回归算法"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression\n",
    "from sklearn.model_selection import KFold\n",
    "\n",
    "#选取简单的可用特征\n",
    "features = ['Pclass','Age','SibSp','Parch','Fare']\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "LR = LinearRegression()\n",
    "#样本分成三折交叉验证\n",
    "kf = KFold(n_splits = 3,shuffle = False)\n",
    "predictions = []\n",
    "for train_index,test_index in kf.split(df_train):\n",
    "    train_predictors = df_train[features].iloc[train_index,:]\n",
    "    train_target = df_train['Survived'].iloc[train_index]\n",
    "    LR.fit(train_predictors,train_target)\n",
    "    test_predictions = LR.predict(df_train[features].iloc[test_index,:])\n",
    "    predictions.append(test_predictions)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "predictions = np.concatenate(predictions,axis = 0)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "accuracy: 0.7037037037037037\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "predictions[predictions > 0.5] = 1\n",
    "predictions[predictions <= 0.5] = 0\n",
    "\n",
    "accuracy = sum(predictions == df_train['Survived'])/len(predictions)\n",
    "\n",
    "print('accuracy:',accuracy)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### 逻辑回归算法"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.6992143658810326\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\taon1\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\sklearn\\linear_model\\logistic.py:433: FutureWarning: Default solver will be changed to 'lbfgs' in 0.22. Specify a solver to silence this warning.\n",
      "  FutureWarning)\n",
      "C:\\Users\\taon1\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\sklearn\\linear_model\\logistic.py:433: FutureWarning: Default solver will be changed to 'lbfgs' in 0.22. Specify a solver to silence this warning.\n",
      "  FutureWarning)\n",
      "C:\\Users\\taon1\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\sklearn\\linear_model\\logistic.py:433: FutureWarning: Default solver will be changed to 'lbfgs' in 0.22. Specify a solver to silence this warning.\n",
      "  FutureWarning)\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score\n",
    "from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression\n",
    "\n",
    "Lr = LogisticRegression()\n",
    "\n",
    "score = cross_val_score(Lr,df_train[features],df_train['Survived'],cv=3)\n",
    "print(score.mean())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**增加\"Sex\",\"Embarked\"特征**"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PassengerId</th>\n",
       "      <th>Survived</th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Name</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sex</th>\n",
       "      <th>Age</th>\n",
       "      <th>SibSp</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ticket</th>\n",
       "      <th>Fare</th>\n",
       "      <th>Cabin</th>\n",
       "      <th>Embarked</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Braund, Mr. Owen Harris</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>A/5 21171</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.2500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PC 17599</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.2833</td>\n",
       "      <td>C85</td>\n",
       "      <td>C</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Heikkinen, Miss. Laina</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>STON/O2. 3101282</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.9250</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113803</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.1000</td>\n",
       "      <td>C123</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Allen, Mr. William Henry</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>373450</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PassengerId  Survived  Pclass  \\\n",
       "0            1         0       3   \n",
       "1            2         1       1   \n",
       "2            3         1       3   \n",
       "3            4         1       1   \n",
       "4            5         0       3   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                Name     Sex   Age  SibSp  \\\n",
       "0                            Braund, Mr. Owen Harris    male  22.0      1   \n",
       "1  Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...  female  38.0      1   \n",
       "2                             Heikkinen, Miss. Laina  female  26.0      0   \n",
       "3       Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)  female  35.0      1   \n",
       "4                           Allen, Mr. William Henry    male  35.0      0   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Parch            Ticket     Fare Cabin Embarked  \n",
       "0      0         A/5 21171   7.2500   NaN        S  \n",
       "1      0          PC 17599  71.2833   C85        C  \n",
       "2      0  STON/O2. 3101282   7.9250   NaN        S  \n",
       "3      0            113803  53.1000  C123        S  \n",
       "4      0            373450   8.0500   NaN        S  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 23,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "sex_map = {'male':0,'female':1}\n",
    "df_train['Sex'] = df_train['Sex'].map(sex_map)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "S    644\n",
       "C    168\n",
       "Q     77\n",
       "Name: Embarked, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 25,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train['Embarked'].value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 26,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "df_train['Embarked'] = df_train['Embarked'].fillna('S')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "embarked_map = {'S':0,'C':1,'Q':2}\n",
    "df_train['Embarked'] = df_train['Embarked'].map(embarked_map)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PassengerId</th>\n",
       "      <th>Survived</th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Name</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sex</th>\n",
       "      <th>Age</th>\n",
       "      <th>SibSp</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ticket</th>\n",
       "      <th>Fare</th>\n",
       "      <th>Cabin</th>\n",
       "      <th>Embarked</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Braund, Mr. Owen Harris</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>A/5 21171</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.2500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PC 17599</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.2833</td>\n",
       "      <td>C85</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Heikkinen, Miss. Laina</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>STON/O2. 3101282</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.9250</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113803</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.1000</td>\n",
       "      <td>C123</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Allen, Mr. William Henry</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>373450</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PassengerId  Survived  Pclass  \\\n",
       "0            1         0       3   \n",
       "1            2         1       1   \n",
       "2            3         1       3   \n",
       "3            4         1       1   \n",
       "4            5         0       3   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                Name  Sex   Age  SibSp  Parch  \\\n",
       "0                            Braund, Mr. Owen Harris    0  22.0      1      0   \n",
       "1  Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...    1  38.0      1      0   \n",
       "2                             Heikkinen, Miss. Laina    1  26.0      0      0   \n",
       "3       Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)    1  35.0      1      0   \n",
       "4                           Allen, Mr. William Henry    0  35.0      0      0   \n",
       "\n",
       "             Ticket     Fare Cabin  Embarked  \n",
       "0         A/5 21171   7.2500   NaN         0  \n",
       "1          PC 17599  71.2833   C85         1  \n",
       "2  STON/O2. 3101282   7.9250   NaN         0  \n",
       "3            113803  53.1000  C123         0  \n",
       "4            373450   8.0500   NaN         0  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 28,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.7878787878787877\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\taon1\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\sklearn\\linear_model\\logistic.py:433: FutureWarning: Default solver will be changed to 'lbfgs' in 0.22. Specify a solver to silence this warning.\n",
      "  FutureWarning)\n",
      "C:\\Users\\taon1\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\sklearn\\linear_model\\logistic.py:433: FutureWarning: Default solver will be changed to 'lbfgs' in 0.22. Specify a solver to silence this warning.\n",
      "  FutureWarning)\n",
      "C:\\Users\\taon1\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\sklearn\\linear_model\\logistic.py:433: FutureWarning: Default solver will be changed to 'lbfgs' in 0.22. Specify a solver to silence this warning.\n",
      "  FutureWarning)\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "features = ['Pclass','Age','SibSp','Parch','Fare','Sex','Embarked']\n",
    "\n",
    "score = cross_val_score(Lr,df_train[features],df_train['Survived'],cv=3)\n",
    "print(score.mean())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "从上述结果可以看出，增加新的'Sex','Embarked'特征，模型效果有一个极大的提升。"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### 随机森林算法"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 30,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.7957351290684623\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier\n",
    "from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score\n",
    "\n",
    "RFC = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators = 10,min_samples_split = 2,min_samples_leaf = 1)\n",
    "\n",
    "kf = KFold(n_splits = 3)\n",
    "\n",
    "scores = cross_val_score(RFC,df_train[features],df_train['Survived'],cv = kf)\n",
    "print(scores.mean())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### 使用网格搜索寻找最佳参数组合"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "GridSearchCV(cv=5, error_score='raise-deprecating',\n",
       "       estimator=RandomForestClassifier(bootstrap=True, class_weight=None, criterion='gini',\n",
       "            max_depth=None, max_features='auto', max_leaf_nodes=None,\n",
       "            min_impurity_decrease=0.0, min_impurity_split=None,\n",
       "            min_samples_leaf=1, min_samples_split=2,\n",
       "            min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0, n_estimators=30, n_jobs=None,\n",
       "            oob_score=False, random_state=None, verbose=0,\n",
       "            warm_start=False),\n",
       "       fit_params=None, iid='warn', n_jobs=None,\n",
       "       param_grid={'n_estimators': [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100], 'max_depth': [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]},\n",
       "       pre_dispatch='2*n_jobs', refit=True, return_train_score='warn',\n",
       "       scoring='roc_auc', verbose=0)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 34,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV\n",
    "\n",
    "param_grid = {'n_estimators':[10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100],'max_depth':[2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]}\n",
    "\n",
    "grid = GridSearchCV(RFC,param_grid = param_grid,scoring = 'roc_auc',cv = 5)\n",
    "grid.fit(df_train[features],df_train['Survived'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "{'max_depth': 7, 'n_estimators': 40} 0.8709830191144069\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(grid.best_params_,grid.best_score_)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 39,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#选择最佳的模型\n",
    "\n",
    "RFC = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators = 40,max_depth = 7)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### 对测试集数据进行处理"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PassengerId</th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Name</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sex</th>\n",
       "      <th>Age</th>\n",
       "      <th>SibSp</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ticket</th>\n",
       "      <th>Fare</th>\n",
       "      <th>Cabin</th>\n",
       "      <th>Embarked</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>892</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kelly, Mr. James</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>330911</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.8292</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>Q</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>893</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wilkes, Mrs. James (Ellen Needs)</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>47.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>363272</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0000</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>894</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>Myles, Mr. Thomas Francis</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>62.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>240276</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.6875</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>Q</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>895</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wirz, Mr. Albert</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>315154</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.6625</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>896</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hirvonen, Mrs. Alexander (Helga E Lindqvist)</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3101298</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.2875</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PassengerId  Pclass                                          Name     Sex  \\\n",
       "0          892       3                              Kelly, Mr. James    male   \n",
       "1          893       3              Wilkes, Mrs. James (Ellen Needs)  female   \n",
       "2          894       2                     Myles, Mr. Thomas Francis    male   \n",
       "3          895       3                              Wirz, Mr. Albert    male   \n",
       "4          896       3  Hirvonen, Mrs. Alexander (Helga E Lindqvist)  female   \n",
       "\n",
       "    Age  SibSp  Parch   Ticket     Fare Cabin Embarked  \n",
       "0  34.5      0      0   330911   7.8292   NaN        Q  \n",
       "1  47.0      1      0   363272   7.0000   NaN        S  \n",
       "2  62.0      0      0   240276   9.6875   NaN        Q  \n",
       "3  27.0      0      0   315154   8.6625   NaN        S  \n",
       "4  22.0      1      1  3101298  12.2875   NaN        S  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 44,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_test.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 45,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
      "RangeIndex: 418 entries, 0 to 417\n",
      "Data columns (total 11 columns):\n",
      "PassengerId    418 non-null int64\n",
      "Pclass         418 non-null int64\n",
      "Name           418 non-null object\n",
      "Sex            418 non-null object\n",
      "Age            418 non-null float64\n",
      "SibSp          418 non-null int64\n",
      "Parch          418 non-null int64\n",
      "Ticket         418 non-null object\n",
      "Fare           418 non-null float64\n",
      "Cabin          91 non-null object\n",
      "Embarked       418 non-null object\n",
      "dtypes: float64(2), int64(4), object(5)\n",
      "memory usage: 36.0+ KB\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_test.info()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 46,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# 对df_test的缺失数据集进行处理\n",
    "\n",
    "df_test['Age'] = df_test['Age'].fillna(df_test['Age'].median())\n",
    "df_test['Fare'] = df_test['Fare'].fillna(df_test['Fare'].max())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 47,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "sex_map = {'male':0,'female':1}\n",
    "df_test['Sex'] = df_test['Sex'].map(sex_map)\n",
    "embarked_map = {'S':0,'C':1,'Q':2}\n",
    "df_test['Embarked'] = df_test['Embarked'].map(embarked_map)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 48,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0], dtype=int64)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 48,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# 对RFC模型进行训练\n",
    "\n",
    "RFC.fit(df_train[features],df_train['Survived'])\n",
    "prediction = RFC.predict(df_test[features])\n",
    "prediction[:10]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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