Simulation: "Flatten the Curve"

In this repo, we investigate:

• Impact of Social Distancing on "Flattening the Curve"
• Influence of the Duration of One-shot Social Distancing
• Efficacy of the Lightswitch Method (cyclic approach to social distancing, described here by Marissa Childs et al)

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List of experiments

• No Social Distancing (Activity Level 100%)
• Social Distancing: Continuous
  • Activity Level 70%
  • Activity Level 40%
• Social Distancing: On-shot (Short-term)
  • Activity Level 40% -> 100%
  • Activity Level 40% -> 70%
• Social Distancing: On-shot (Mid-term)
  • Activity Level 40% -> 100%
  • Activity Level 40% -> 70%
• Social Distancing: On-shot (Long-term)
  • Activity Level 40% -> 100%
  • Activity Level 40% -> 70%
• Social Distancing: Lightswitch (Cyclic social distancing)
  • Activity Level 40% -> 100% (Repeated)
  • Activity Level 40% -> 70% (Repeated) -> 100%

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Color code in simulations

• Healthy person is shown in light gray
• Infected person is shown in red
• Recoverd person is shown in green
• Dead person is removed from simulation, but displayed in dark gray in counter and stacked area chart

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TL;DR

• Social distancing works for flattening the curve.
• If we quit social distancing too early, we could see a resurgence.
• Lightswich method could potentially help reduce the total social distancing period.

Note:

• This simulation is vastly oversimplified and should not be readily applied to any COVID-19 decision making.
• Initial state is randomly initialized on each run, therefore the simulation result varies.

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Experiments

No Social Distancing (Activity Level 100%)

　　

　　

Social Distancing: Continuous

• Activity Level 70%

• Activity Level 40%

Social Distancing: On-shot (Short-term)

• Activity Level 40% -> 100%
  
  

• Activity Level 40% -> 70%

Social Distancing: One-shot (Mid-term)

• Activity Level 40% -> 100%

• Activity Level 40% -> 70%

Social Distancing: One-shot (Long-term)

• Activity Level 40% -> 100%

• Activity Level 40% -> 70%

Social Distancing: Lightswitch (Cyclic Social Distancing)

• Activity Level 40% -> 100% (Repeated)

• Activity Level 40% -> 70% (Repeated) -> 100%

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Requirements

• python (v3.6.9 was used)
• numpy (v1.17.2 was used)
• matplotlib (v3.1.1 was used)
• imagemagick (to save .gif)
• ffmpeg (to safe .mp4)

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Link to abbreviated version of interactive:

• Notebook
• Slide
• HTML

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Acknowledgements

This repo is

• Inspired by the simulation in this Washington Post article by Harry Stevens
• Based on this elastic collision implementation by Christian Hill

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Copyright (c) 2020 Rikiya Yamashita
Released under the MIT license