-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
Copy pathindex.html
555 lines (358 loc) · 17.2 KB
/
index.html
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="" xml:lang="">
<head>
<title>Public Budgeting</title>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta name="author" content="Petr Bouchal" />
<meta name="date" content="2021-03-30" />
<script src="libs/header-attrs/header-attrs.js"></script>
<script src="libs/clipboard/clipboard.min.js"></script>
<link href="libs/shareon/shareon.min.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/shareon/shareon.min.js"></script>
<link href="libs/xaringanExtra-shareagain/shareagain.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/xaringanExtra-shareagain/shareagain.js"></script>
<link href="libs/xaringanExtra-extra-styles/xaringanExtra-extra-styles.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<meta name="description" content="Description"/>
<meta name="generator" content="xaringan and remark.js"/>
<meta name="github-repo" content="petrbouchal/ies2021"/>
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Title"/>
<meta name="twitter:description" content="Description"/>
<meta name="twitter:url" content="https://petrbouchal.xyz/ies2021"/>
<meta name="twitter:image:src" content="https://petrbouchal.xyz/ies2021/twitter_card.png"/>
<meta name="twitter:image:alt" content="social alt"/>
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/>
<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@petrbouchal"/>
<meta name="twitter:site" content="@petrbouchal"/>
<meta property="og:title" content="Title"/>
<meta property="og:description" content="Description"/>
<meta property="og:url" content="https://petrbouchal.xyz/ies2021"/>
<meta property="og:image" content="https://petrbouchal.xyz/ies2021/twitter_card.png"/>
<meta property="og:image:alt" content="social alt"/>
<meta property="og:type" content="website"/>
<meta property="og:locale" content="cs_CZ"/>
<meta property="article:author" content="Petr Bouchal"/>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="xaringan-themer.css" type="text/css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" href="slides.css" type="text/css" />
</head>
<body>
<textarea id="source">
class: bottom, left, inverse, title-slide
# Public Budgeting
## IES Public Economics BA course: Guest Lecture
### Petr Bouchal
### March 30, 2021
---
class: large, inverse
# This lecture
Motivation
Concepts
Data ↔ Examples ↔ Empirical questions
*Examples are micro- & local-level but hopefully stimulate and illustrate*
---
class: large, inverse, middle
# Key takeaways
---
class: large, inverse, center, middle
What use are budgets and accounts
Public money = not just cash flowing
More budgets than just the central state's
Data offers multiple ways of looking at public money
---
class: large, left, middle, inverse
# Why care about budgets?
---
class: left, top, large
0. What is a budget good for? (Concepts)
--
1. How do we understand public money? (Data)
--
2. Where does public money come from? (Revenue)
--
3. How is public money spent? By whom? (Spending)
--
4. Why is that so? (Political economy)
--
5. How is public money managed? (Rules, institutions)
--
---
class: large, inverse, middle
# What is a budget?
---
class: large, middle
A plan
An expression of collective decisions
A solution to collective action problems
An accountability tool
???
Someone writes the plan, someone has influence over it
Collective decisions: both between institutions, between state and society, and between groups of citizens/voters (=> intergenerational and other equity and distributional effects)
Collective action problems: public money = common pool resource
Acctounability for following the plan
---
class: inverse, middle
# What else can we know about public money?
---
class: large
# Think *stocks and flows*
.center[
Budgets / P&L × balance sheets
= What is raised/spent × what is owned and owed
*Reflected in different data published*
]
---
class: large
# Think *principals and agents*: who accounts to whom
Spenders (public orgs) → finance ministry
Executive → legislature (Supreme Audit Institutions)
Member states ↔︎ EU
State → voters?
???
Related information asymmetries and attempts to alleviate them
The data you see is often a by-product of these processes
---
class: large
# Think *ex ante* and *ex post* accountability
Budgets as plans × accounts as records of what happened
Accounting and economics concepts/language can clash
Accountability → data is generated!
???
Data often a reflection of budgeting and accounting processes
To work with some parts of it, you need some familiarity with accounting concepts and with the rules around budgeting and accounting in the public sector
---
class: inverse, middle
# Where does money come from?
---
class: large, middle
Money = what we get each year? Or: what we own?
Tax or another means?
What kind of tax?
Who pays it?
Who collects it? Who sets the rates? (tax autonomy?)
Who gets to spend it?
???
- Tax or something else: some revenue sources are similar to tax (insurance, fees etc.)
- Using own assets (property, investments) to generate income
- Tax on what? Wealth x income x consumption => efficiency and equity consequences
---
class: center, middle
## Aside: credits and data sources
Data:
- [Státní pokladna MF ČR (State Treasury)](https://monitor.statnipokladna.cz/) via own [R package](https://petrbouchal.xyz/statnipokladna/) combined with [CZSO data](https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/otevrena_data) via own [R package](https://petrbouchal.xyz/czso/)
- [WOFI SNG database](http://www.sng-wofi.org/data/) via [OECD R package](https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/OECD/index.html)
Analysis:
- mostly own/colleagues at IPR Praha (publication in [CZ](http://www.iprpraha.cz/uploads/assets/dokumenty/chude_mesto_prazske.pdf) and [EN](http://www.iprpraha.cz/uploads/assets/dokumenty/ssp/analyzy/ekonomika/chude%20mesto%20aj/ipr_chude_mesto_prazske_sazba_en.pdf))
- with Petr Janský, [work in progress](https://obce-covid19.netlify.app/)
Apologies for Czech/inadequate labels; will try to explain as I go.
---
## Who gets to spend it: income by level of gov't
.small[source: IPR Praha calculations based on SNG/WOFI database]
???
See variation in extent of public spending
Fiscal federalism != actual political federalism: large variation in role of local spending even in unitary states (Denmark...)
---
## Where money comes from: sources of income by region (CZ)
???
One chart exposing multiple issues of budgeting in the modern state
A version of fiscal federalism
Spatial and socioeconomic patterns
Own resources x what a city/region can raise
Automatic transfers (share of tax) vs. subsidies to regions
Subsidies from state can come with strings (current/investment)
Only small share of wealth tax, and smaller in Prague => distributive and efficiency issues
---
## Property income = sell vs. maintain an asset
???
Lesson = top-level budgets can hide detail. It can look good that a budget contains a lot of "own-source" income - but are we selling things, or using our assets to generate sustainable income? Very different long-term consequences
Highlights link between asset income and investment/maintenance cost
---
## What kind of tax? (Local income)
???
Surprising variation: large property taxes in France and US
Czechia way down there
---
## Impact of shocks
---
class: inverse, middle
# How is public money spent?
---
class: middle, large
By whom?
Capital vs. current?
Own activity vs. outsourced?
Where?
In what sector?
---
class: large
## Capital spending by level of govt
---
class: large
## Capital spending → assets
???
Again, linkage between stocks and flows
Invest => own an asset => generate income & maintenance cost
One of the hardest practical questions in managing public money
- account for future income and cost
- have processes for linking stocks and flows, not planning just cash
---
class: inverse, middle
# How is public money managed?
---
class: large, middle
## "The *administrative economy* of public spending"
The *political* problem: how not to spend too much / spend wisely
×
the *administrative* problem of (not) implementing spending plans properly
Institutions, rules, incentives
---
## Investment funding + cycles (Prague)
???
A large chunk of investment spending even in a rich city funded by EU
This money has its own cycles
Election cycles visible in overall spending - different for EU and Prague money
Very little state money subsidising Prague investments - less than in other regions. Could compare with benefit? Tells you st about the financial relationships between the different levels of govt
---
## Implementation gap (Prague)
???
tl;dr:
- spending plans get revised upwards but then not even the initial plan is spent.
- the problem is bigger for investment
- similar patterns at national level
Highlights issue of practical implementation: budgeting is meaningless if we cannot actually execute on plans
This is not just because of admin capacity - also incentives
---
class: large, middle
→ Public Financial Management
- how to achieve efficiency?
- how to run budgeting as a planning process?
- how to budget for results? (link spending to policy outcomes)
- how to understand impacts (and on whom)
---
class: large, inverse, middle
# How to get and use the data
If you like lots of data and work in R...
---
class: medium
## {statnipokladna}
On CRAN. Documentation at [petrbouchal.github.io/statnipokladna](https://petrbouchal.github.io/statnipokladna) also explains how to use and understand the data.
<img src="images/sp.png" alt="drawing" width="250"/>
Provides data published at [monitor.statnipokladna.cz/](https://monitor.statnipokladna.cz/).
---
class: medium
## Also useful
[<img src="images/czso.png" alt="drawing" width="250"/>](https://petrbouchal.xyz/czso)
[<img src="images/vsezved.png" alt="drawing" width="250"/>](https://petrbouchal.xyz/vsezved)
Czech statistical data // school register
{[CzechData](https://jancaha.github.io/CzechData/)}
{[RCzechia](https://cran.r-project.org/package=RCzechia)} for Czech geospatial data and metadata, also geocoding
{[eurostat](https://cran.r-project.org/package=eurostat)
{[wbstats](gshs-ornl.github.io/wbstats/)}
{[oecd](https://cran.r-project.org/package=OECD)} for accessing data from these orgs
---
class: inverse, bottom, right, large
layout: false
.left[[petrbouchal.xyz/ies2021](https://petrbouchal.xyz/ies2021)]
<a href="https://twitter.com/petrbouchal"><svg style="height:0.8em;top:.04em;position:relative;fill:white;" viewBox="0 0 512 512"><path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"/></svg></a> <a href="https://github.com/petrbouchal"><svg style="height:0.8em;top:.04em;position:relative;fill:white;" viewBox="0 0 496 512"><path d="M165.9 397.4c0 2-2.3 3.6-5.2 3.6-3.3.3-5.6-1.3-5.6-3.6 0-2 2.3-3.6 5.2-3.6 3-.3 5.6 1.3 5.6 3.6zm-31.1-4.5c-.7 2 1.3 4.3 4.3 4.9 2.6 1 5.6 0 6.2-2s-1.3-4.3-4.3-5.2c-2.6-.7-5.5.3-6.2 2.3zm44.2-1.7c-2.9.7-4.9 2.6-4.6 4.9.3 2 2.9 3.3 5.9 2.6 2.9-.7 4.9-2.6 4.6-4.6-.3-1.9-3-3.2-5.9-2.9zM244.8 8C106.1 8 0 113.3 0 252c0 110.9 69.8 205.8 169.5 239.2 12.8 2.3 17.3-5.6 17.3-12.1 0-6.2-.3-40.4-.3-61.4 0 0-70 15-84.7-29.8 0 0-11.4-29.1-27.8-36.6 0 0-22.9-15.7 1.6-15.4 0 0 24.9 2 38.6 25.8 21.9 38.6 58.6 27.5 72.9 20.9 2.3-16 8.8-27.1 16-33.7-55.9-6.2-112.3-14.3-112.3-110.5 0-27.5 7.6-41.3 23.6-58.9-2.6-6.5-11.1-33.3 2.6-67.9 20.9-6.5 69 27 69 27 20-5.6 41.5-8.5 62.8-8.5s42.8 2.9 62.8 8.5c0 0 48.1-33.6 69-27 13.7 34.7 5.2 61.4 2.6 67.9 16 17.7 25.8 31.5 25.8 58.9 0 96.5-58.9 104.2-114.8 110.5 9.2 7.9 17 22.9 17 46.4 0 33.7-.3 75.4-.3 83.6 0 6.5 4.6 14.4 17.3 12.1C428.2 457.8 496 362.9 496 252 496 113.3 383.5 8 244.8 8zM97.2 352.9c-1.3 1-1 3.3.7 5.2 1.6 1.6 3.9 2.3 5.2 1 1.3-1 1-3.3-.7-5.2-1.6-1.6-3.9-2.3-5.2-1zm-10.8-8.1c-.7 1.3.3 2.9 2.3 3.9 1.6 1 3.6.7 4.3-.7.7-1.3-.3-2.9-2.3-3.9-2-.6-3.6-.3-4.3.7zm32.4 35.6c-1.6 1.3-1 4.3 1.3 6.2 2.3 2.3 5.2 2.6 6.5 1 1.3-1.3.7-4.3-1.3-6.2-2.2-2.3-5.2-2.6-6.5-1zm-11.4-14.7c-1.6 1-1.6 3.6 0 5.9 1.6 2.3 4.3 3.3 5.6 2.3 1.6-1.3 1.6-3.9 0-6.2-1.4-2.3-4-3.3-5.6-2z"/></svg></a> <a href="https://linkedin.com/in/petrbouchal"><svg style="height:0.8em;top:.04em;position:relative;fill:white;" viewBox="0 0 448 512"><path d="M416 32H31.9C14.3 32 0 46.5 0 64.3v383.4C0 465.5 14.3 480 31.9 480H416c17.6 0 32-14.5 32-32.3V64.3c0-17.8-14.4-32.3-32-32.3zM135.4 416H69V202.2h66.5V416zm-33.2-243c-21.3 0-38.5-17.3-38.5-38.5S80.9 96 102.2 96c21.2 0 38.5 17.3 38.5 38.5 0 21.3-17.2 38.5-38.5 38.5zm282.1 243h-66.4V312c0-24.8-.5-56.7-34.5-56.7-34.6 0-39.9 27-39.9 54.9V416h-66.4V202.2h63.7v29.2h.9c8.9-16.8 30.6-34.5 62.9-34.5 67.2 0 79.7 44.3 79.7 101.9V416z"/></svg></a> petrbouchal
[petrbouchal.xyz](https://petrbouchal.xyz)
pbouchal@gmail.com
</textarea>
<style data-target="print-only">@media screen {.remark-slide-container{display:block;}.remark-slide-scaler{box-shadow:none;}}</style>
<script src="https://remarkjs.com/downloads/remark-latest.min.js"></script>
<script src="macros.js"></script>
<script>var slideshow = remark.create({
"ratio": "16:9",
"slideNumberFormat": "",
"highlightStyle": "github",
"highlightLines": true,
"countIncrementalSlides": false
});
if (window.HTMLWidgets) slideshow.on('afterShowSlide', function (slide) {
window.dispatchEvent(new Event('resize'));
});
(function(d) {
var s = d.createElement("style"), r = d.querySelector(".remark-slide-scaler");
if (!r) return;
s.type = "text/css"; s.innerHTML = "@page {size: " + r.style.width + " " + r.style.height +"; }";
d.head.appendChild(s);
})(document);
(function(d) {
var el = d.getElementsByClassName("remark-slides-area");
if (!el) return;
var slide, slides = slideshow.getSlides(), els = el[0].children;
for (var i = 1; i < slides.length; i++) {
slide = slides[i];
if (slide.properties.continued === "true" || slide.properties.count === "false") {
els[i - 1].className += ' has-continuation';
}
}
var s = d.createElement("style");
s.type = "text/css"; s.innerHTML = "@media print { .has-continuation { display: none; } }";
d.head.appendChild(s);
})(document);
// delete the temporary CSS (for displaying all slides initially) when the user
// starts to view slides
(function() {
var deleted = false;
slideshow.on('beforeShowSlide', function(slide) {
if (deleted) return;
var sheets = document.styleSheets, node;
for (var i = 0; i < sheets.length; i++) {
node = sheets[i].ownerNode;
if (node.dataset["target"] !== "print-only") continue;
node.parentNode.removeChild(node);
}
deleted = true;
});
})();
(function() {
"use strict"
// Replace <script> tags in slides area to make them executable
var scripts = document.querySelectorAll(
'.remark-slides-area .remark-slide-container script'
);
if (!scripts.length) return;
for (var i = 0; i < scripts.length; i++) {
var s = document.createElement('script');
var code = document.createTextNode(scripts[i].textContent);
s.appendChild(code);
var scriptAttrs = scripts[i].attributes;
for (var j = 0; j < scriptAttrs.length; j++) {
s.setAttribute(scriptAttrs[j].name, scriptAttrs[j].value);
}
scripts[i].parentElement.replaceChild(s, scripts[i]);
}
})();
(function() {
var links = document.getElementsByTagName('a');
for (var i = 0; i < links.length; i++) {
if (/^(https?:)?\/\//.test(links[i].getAttribute('href'))) {
links[i].target = '_blank';
}
}
})();
// adds .remark-code-has-line-highlighted class to <pre> parent elements
// of code chunks containing highlighted lines with class .remark-code-line-highlighted
(function(d) {
const hlines = d.querySelectorAll('.remark-code-line-highlighted');
const preParents = [];
const findPreParent = function(line, p = 0) {
if (p > 1) return null; // traverse up no further than grandparent
const el = line.parentElement;
return el.tagName === "PRE" ? el : findPreParent(el, ++p);
};
for (let line of hlines) {
let pre = findPreParent(line);
if (pre && !preParents.includes(pre)) preParents.push(pre);
}
preParents.forEach(p => p.classList.add("remark-code-has-line-highlighted"));
})(document);</script>
</body>
</html>