This project is in very early stages! Right now I am collecting data on the 2022/2023 season.
The aim of this project is to develop a model that can estimate the outcome of a rugby game based on the team's 'attack' and 'defence' and a measure of home-ground advantage.
A Bayesian model will be built to estimate suitable ratings per team (much like FIFA, but not as detailed as Rugby 08). Basically, the model takes in some prior measures for each team, and after observing matches against various teams, updates the measures to form a distribution over, e.g. attack strength. From there, we can simulate possible realities and see how the season plays out.
The current on-going season will be used to test the model with the aim to get it to a point where, following each week's games, the posterior updates via GitHub Actions, ECS, etc.
MIT licensed.