references.bib

@article{Do2020,
   abstract = {Agroforestry interventions have the potential to benefit the livelihoods of farmers and communities worldwide. However, given the high system complexity, the long-term benefits of agroforestry are difficult to anticipate. This study aimed to integrate uncertainty into long-term performance projections for agroforestry interventions in the highlands of Northwest Vietnam. We applied decision analysis and probabilistic modeling approaches to produce economic ex-ante assessments for seven agroforestry options (intercropping of maize, forage grass, or coffee with tea, nut, fruit, and timber trees) promoted in the region. Our results indicate that farmers likely prefer annual monocultures due to the relatively early incomes and short time-lag on returns. However, the results also show that annual profits from monocrops can be expected to decrease over time, due mainly to unsustainable soil use. Agroforestry systems, on the other hand, return substantial profits in the long term, but they also incur high establishment and maintenance costs and can generate net losses in the first few years. Initial financial incentives to compensate for these losses may help in promoting agroforestry adoption in the region. Uncertainties related to farmers’ time preference, crop yields, and crop prices appeared to have the greatest influence on whether monocropping or agroforestry emerged as the preferable option. Narrowing these key knowledge gaps may offer additional clarity on farmers’ optimal course of action and provide guidance for agencies promoting agroforestry interventions in Vietnam and elsewhere. Our model produced a set of plausible ranges for net present values and highlighted critical variables, more clarity on which would support decision-making under uncertainty. Our innovative research approach proved effective in providing forecasts of uncertain outcomes and can be useful for informing similar development interventions in other contexts.},
   author = {Hoa Do and Eike Luedeling and Cory Whitney},
   doi = {10.1007/s13593-020-00624-5},
   issn = {17730155},
   issue = {3},
   journal = {Agronomy for Sustainable Development},
   keywords = {Agroforestry,Decision analysis,Monte Carlo simulation,Probabilistic modeling,Uncertainty},
   month = {6},
   publisher = {Springer},
   title = {Decision analysis of agroforestry options reveals adoption risks for resource-poor farmers},
   volume = {40},
   year = {2020},
}
@report{Crystal2004,
   author = {Eric Crystal and Peter Whittlesey},
   title = {THE ROLE OF RICE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA},
   year = {2004},
}
@report{ACRON2018,
   author = {ACRON},
   title = {Market Garden Crop Rotations},
   url = {www.acornorganic.org/membership.html.},
   year = {2018},
}
@report{Wright2005,
   author = {Jerry Wright and Bill Wilcke and Edward Usset and Ward Stienstra and Michael Schmitt and Gary Sands and George Rehm and Bruce Potter and Ken Ostlie and Kent Olson and Seth Naeve and Vance Morey and Gerald Miller and Ian Macrae and John Lamb and Vern Hofman and Dale Hicks and Dean Herzfeld and Ken Hellevang and Jeff Gunsolus and Bev Durgan and Kent Crookston and Don Breneman and Michael Bennett},
   title = {SOYBEAN FIELD BOOK},
   year = {2005},
}
@report{MOALF2016,
   author = {MOALF},
   title = {Chilli production},
   url = {https://www.southdevonchillifarm.co.uk/onli},
   year = {2016},
}
@article{Yoshida1981,
   author = {Shouichi Yoshida},
   title = {Fundamentals of rice crop sciences},
   year = {1981},
}
@article{BPS2018,
   author = {BPS},
   title = {[SOUH2018] Struktur Ongkos Usaha Tanaman Cabai Besar per Hektar per Musim Tanam di Indonesia},
   year = {2018},
}
@article{Mucharam2020,
   abstract = {Indonesia is rated the highest rice consumer and the third-largest producer in the world, consequently, farming is one of the most strategic production systems in the country. Therefore, this study aims to assess the sustainability of rice farming at the provincial level in Indonesia. Furthermore, 32 sustainability indicators, which are categorized into five dimensions, namely economic, ecological, social, technological, and institutional were used. The rapid appraisal approach (Rapsusagri), consisting of multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analysis was adopted to assess the sustainability of rice farming. Monte Carlo simulation was used to define the validity and sensitivity analysis to assess the dominant attributes which affect sustainability. The result showed that the economic and social dimensions are at a better level, meanwhile the ecological, technological, and institutional still have various weaknesses and needs improvement. Furthermore, irrigated paddy areas, agricultural infrastructure, rice productivity, use of chemical and organic fertilizers, cropping index, land suitability, village accessibility, officers, and agricultural extension institution were pointed out as the leveraging indicators for sustaining the rice farming system. Also, provinces in Java Island were found to have higher sustainability levels than others. However, it is predicted that this condition will last for a short period due to rapid land conversion, therefore Indonesia needs to consider the development of rice production areas outside Java islands.},
   author = {Iim Mucharam and Ernan Rustiadi and Akhmad Fauzi and Harianto},
   doi = {10.18280/ijsdp.150819},
   issn = {1743761X},
   issue = {8},
   journal = {International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning},
   keywords = {Agriculture,Multidimensional scaling,Rapid appraisal,Rice production area,Sustainability},
   month = {12},
   pages = {1323-13332},
   publisher = {International Information and Engineering Technology Association},
   title = {Assessment of rice farming sustainability: Evidence from Indonesia provincial data},
   volume = {15},
   year = {2020},
}
@report{Jagung2017,
   author = {Kedelai Jagung},
   title = {Nilai Produksi dan Biaya Produksi per Musim Tanam per Hektar Budidaya Tanaman Padi Sawah, Padi Ladang, Jagung, dan Kedelai, 2017 Uraian Padi Sawah Padi Ladang},
   year = {2017},
}
@report{Amirrullah2019,
   author = {Johanes Amirrullah},
   title = {The Effect of Various Crop Rotation on the Improvement of Soil Properties of Irrigation Paddy Field},
   year = {2019},
}
@report{Fao2018,
   author = {Fao},
   title = {SMALL FAMILY FARMS COUNTRY FACTSHEET},
   url = {www.fao.org/family-farming/data-sources/dataportrait/farm-size/en},
   year = {2018},
}
@article{BPS2022,
   author = {BPS},
   title = {Statistik Indonesia 2022},
   year = {2022},
}
@inproceedings{BRIN2022,
   abstract = {More than 40 countries produce world rice, only six major exporting countries, namely India, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Myanmar, and the United States. The availability of rice on the world market annually ranges from 39-42 million tons that 40% of it imported by Asian countries, and China imports 6 million tons per year. Retail rice prices in Japan are USD 5.20/kg, Saudi Arabia USD 2.30/kg, and in Africa around USD 1.0 / kg, higher than Indonesia. The price of medium rice offered in the world market ranges from USD 0.34 - USD 0.4 per kg, while the price of special rice is USD 1,000/ton or more. Indonesia has the opportunity to export Basmati and aromatic rice to Japan and Saudi Arabia, which purchased at high prices. This export opportunities driven by reciprocal bilateral trade. Rice export to African countries needs to be explore under bilateral trade agreements. Indonesia has chance to export rice if it is able to consistently achieve a production surplus of at least 2 million tons per year. At the stage of exports, the role of the government needed in the form of tax breaks, quality assurance certification and subsidies for the rice production process.},
   author = {BRIN},
   doi = {10.1051/e3sconf/202236101016},
   issn = {22671242},
   journal = {E3S Web of Conferences},
   month = {11},
   publisher = {EDP Sciences},
   title = {Competitiveness of Indonesian Rice Prices in The International Market},
   volume = {361},
   year = {2022},
}
@report{USDA2012,
   author = {USDA},
   title = {INDONESIA: Stagnating Rice Production Ensures Continued Need for Imports},
   year = {2012},
}
@inproceedings{Setiartiti2021,
   abstract = {This critical review evaluates the agriculture sector's challenges by assessing the agriculture sector related to government food security policies. The agriculture sector faces many problems, including during 2019 it only grew by 3.08% than the previous year, as the second GDP contributor, although it has the potential to reduce unemployment, it has not been supported by adequate human resources and even tends to degeneration due to the lowest income compared to others. Another serious problem is that every year, there is a reduction of between 150,000 to 200,000 hectares of land due to conversion of function for infrastructure development. As an agrarian country, Indonesian farmers' welfare has also not changed much from year to year. Farmers Exchange Rate (NTP) in 2019 was 104.46, only growing 1.25% from the previous year. The low wages of agricultural laborers, limited land ownership, agricultural products' selling price do not benefit the farmers, making their welfare still low. With this phenomenon, Indonesia urgently needs to reform its governance in the agricultural sector, and restore BULOG's role. Strengthening the Bulog's role will be able to maintain food price stability and motivate farmers' interest to continue planting rice and various other food commodities.},
   author = {Lilies Setiartiti},
   doi = {10.1051/e3sconf/202123201034},
   issn = {22671242},
   journal = {E3S Web of Conferences},
   month = {1},
   publisher = {EDP Sciences},
   title = {Critical Point of View: The Challenges of Agricultural Sector on Governance and Food Security in Indonesia},
   volume = {232},
   year = {2021},
}
@article{Antriyandarti2015,
   abstract = {… The coefficient of seed price is significantly positive … rice farming in East Java. If the location of the farm land is the same village with the farmer’s house, the farmer can manage the rice …},
   author = {Ernoiz Antriyandarti},
   doi = {10.7310/arfe.51.74},
   issn = {0388-8525},
   issue = {2},
   journal = {Journal of Rural Problems},
   pages = {74-85},
   publisher = {The Association for Regional Agricultural and Forestry Economics},
   title = {Competitiveness and Cost Efficiency of Rice Farming in Indonesia},
   volume = {51},
   year = {2015},
}
@article{Krisdiana2021,
   abstract = {This research was conducted to determine the financial feasibility of growing soybean varieties and their competitiveness in the rice-based cropping system of Indonesia. The research was conducted at two locations in 2020. The results showed that the use of improved varieties of soybean yielded 2.24 t/ha and 2.09 t/ha, which was higher than using local (non-improved) varieties. The use of improved varieties was financially feasible with Revenue Cost (R/C) ratios of 1.88– 1.98 and Benefit Cost (B/C) ratios of 0.88–0.98. The competitiveness of soybeans in Mojokerto and Pasuruan was lower compared to maize and mungbean. Soybean could compete with competing crops if the productivity and price were higher than the current conditions. To be able to compete with maize, the soybean productivity should be 5.14–5.22 t/ha if the current soybean price per kg is IDR 7200 (about US $ 0.51). To compete with mungbean, the soybean productivity should reach 3.05 t/ha with the current price per kg of IDR 7200 (about US $ 0.51). When measured by the price level, to be able to compete with maize, the soybean selling price per kg should be IDR 14,428–IDR 14,893 (about USD 1.06) with a productivity level of 2.24 t/ha.},
   author = {Ruly Krisdiana and Nila Prasetiaswati and Imam Sutrisno and Fachrur Rozi and Arief Harsono and Made Jana Mejaya},
   doi = {10.3390/su13158334},
   issn = {20711050},
   issue = {15},
   journal = {Sustainability (Switzerland)},
   keywords = {Competitiveness level,Cropping pattern,Financial feasibility,Indonesia,Soybean},
   month = {8},
   publisher = {MDPI AG},
   title = {Financial feasibility and competitiveness levels of soybean varieties in rice-based cropping system of Indonesia},
   volume = {13},
   year = {2021},
}
@report{Harsono2020,
   abstract = {Soybean is the third important food crop in Indonesia after rice and maize, particularly as a good source of protein. The demand for soybean consumption tends to increase annually. In 2020, the figure was about 3.28 million tons, while the domestic production was 0.63 million tons, thus around 81% of the soybean needed was imported. Efforts to increase the domestic soybean production have been conducted since the last decade, which is concerned with increasing the current productivity (1.5 t/ha) through introducing the high-yielding improved varieties and extending the harvested area, particularly to outside of Java. The potential planting area is focused on the irrigated lowland after rice (optimal land) and suboptimal lands (dry, acid, tidal, and shaded lands). The series of the study showed that the yield potential of soybean grown in such lands varied from 1.8 t/ha to 3.0 t/ha. A number of soybeans improved varieties adapted to different land types or agro-ecological conditions also have been released and supported with advanced cultivation technology. The results, challenges, and opportunities to achieve soybean self-sufficiency are discussed in this paper.},
   author = {Arief Harsono and Didik Harnowo and Erliana Ginting and Dian Adi Anggraeni Elisabeth},
   keywords = {Indonesia,self-sufficiency,soybean},
   title = {Opportunities to Achieve Self-Sufficiency},
   url = {www.intechopen.com},
   year = {2020},
}
@report{Schilling1999,
   author = {Robert Schilling},
   title = {THE SOYBEAN COMMODITY SYSTEM IN INDONESIA : OVERVIEW AND PROPOSALS},
   year = {1999},
}
@report{Wandschneider2019,
   author = {Tiago Wandschneider and Paul Gniffke and Teddy Kristedi and Kuntoro Boga and Witono Adiyoga and Howard Hall N/A N/A},
   title = {Final report:  Eastern Indonesia Agribusiness Development Opportunities-Chilli Value Chain project number},
   year = {2019},
}
@inproceedings{Sundari2021,
   abstract = {Horticultural crops are one of the most prominent national income supporters in Indonesia. Chili is one of the vegetable commodities that have excellent and promising business opportunities. The need for chili increases every year, in line with the increasing population and the development of industries that require chili as raw material. This study aimed to determine the number of costs, revenues, income, and profits and determine the efficiency of chili farming in Indonesia. The total respondent was 342 from four provinces: West Java, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Central Java, and East Java. The basic research method used in this research was descriptive and analytical. This study was carried out using survey techniques with a simple random sampling method. The method of analysis used is the analysis of costs, revenues, income, and farming profits. The results showed that the chili farming business obtained IDR 114,510,523.99. The costs incurred are IDR 41,120,740.16 per growing season so that the income is IDR 91,905,415.11 and the profit is IDR 73,389,783.83. The R/C ratio of 2.78 indicates that it is efficient.},
   author = {M. T. Sundari and Darsono and J. Sutrisno and E. Antriyandarti},
   doi = {10.1088/1755-1315/905/1/012046},
   issn = {17551315},
   issue = {1},
   journal = {IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science},
   month = {11},
   publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},
   title = {Analysis of chili farming in Indonesia},
   volume = {905},
   year = {2021},
}
@report{Stantec2005,
   author = {Stantec},
   title = {Helping our clients prioritise programmes and projects.},
   year = {2005},
}
@article{article,
author = {Sundari, M and Darsono, and Antriyandarti, Ernoiz},
year = {2021},
month = {11},
pages = {012046},
title = {Analysis of chili farming in Indonesia},
volume = {905},
journal = {IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science},
doi = {10.1088/1755-1315/905/1/012046}
}
@inbook{Harsono2021,
   author = {Arief Harsono and Didik Harnowo and Erliana Ginting and Dian Adi Anggraeni Elisabeth},
   city = {Rijeka},
   doi = {10.5772/intechopen.101264},
   editor = {Jose C Jimenez-Lopez and Alfonso Clemente},
   journal = {Legumes Research},
   publisher = {IntechOpen},
   title = {Soybean in Indonesia: Current Status, Challenges and Opportunities to Achieve Self-Sufficiency},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.101264},
   year = {2021},
}
@online{whitney_decision_nodate,
	title = {Decision Analysis and Forecasting for Agricultural Development},
	url = {https://agtools.app/decision_analysis/#section-seminar_schedule},
	titleaddon = {Decision Analysis and Forecasting for Agricultural Development},
	author = {Whitney, Corry and Luedeling, Eike},
}