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Methodology

There are several different version of compute life tables for identifying and studying bridge maintenance patterns:

  1. Life table by O'Brien Chin (v1)
  2. New proposed method (v2)

Data

💡 A brief comparison of methods

Item Description Version 1 (O'Brien Chin) Version 2
Study window To observe the behavior of the bridges as they pass through this window Established as five year study window 2013 - 2017 Established as five year multiple study windows from 1992 to 2020, with an option of overlapping study windows
$leave(x)$ The number of bridges that leave the study at age $x$ Computed similar to the described definition, similar to mortality rate New approach use the concept of conditional probability of dying instead of mortality rate, change in notation used as $D_x$
$exposures(x)$ The number of bridges in the study at age $x$ Assumes that a bridge be a part of the study for the entire year for it to contribute ot the exposure for that year Exposures are computed similar to the previous method
Hazard rate $h(x)$ Hazard rate age $x$. See equation 1 Computed as $leaves(x) \over exposure(x)$ $D_x \over P_x + (0.5 * D_x)$
$S(x)$ Survival rate age $x$. See equation 2 Computed as $S(x) = 1 - h(x)$ Computed as $P_x = 1 - Q_x$
$F(x)$ The mortality rate (or cumulative probability of failure) of bridges exposed at age 1 before reaching age $x$ $1 - P_x$ Conditional probability of death $q_x = (D_x / (P_x + (0.5 * D_x)))$
$_yP_1$ Probability of survival at age $y$ for the next year. See Equation 5 This version can compute the probability of survival for next 5 years. Although, this method is so far not implemented, the version can implement next 5 years of probability

Verifying the simulation with gravel bridges

Required gravel bridge format

Why is gravel bridges showing the same patterns as the overall bridge

  • The range of the condition ratings with respect to age.

References

  1. Intuition for cumulative hazard function -- survival analysis
  2. Methodology to calculating national life tables
  3. Computing Life Tables
  4. Validation by simulation bridge life cycles