Background Mexico experienced an unprecedented rise of violence after 2005. The net effect of this rise on lifespan inequality and life expectancy for the young population in the last decade is unknown. We quantify the effect of rising homicides on lifespan inequality and average lifespan from 2005 to 2015.
Methods Life expectancy and lifespan inequality conditional on surviving to age 15, as measured by years of life lost, with age- and cause-specific contributions to the changes between 1995 and 2015 were calculated. We analysed medically amenable conditions, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, traffic accidents and homicides by state and sex.
Results Mexican male life expectancy at age 15 increased more than twice in 1995-2005 (1.17 years) than in 2005-2015 (0.55 years). Lifespan inequality decreased by more than half a year for males in 1995-2005 (from 14.31 to 13.77), while in 2005-2015, the reduction was about four times smaller. Homicides between ages 15-49 had the largest effect on slowing down male life expectancy and lifespan inequality in 2005-2015. At the state level, some states experienced reductions in life expectancy in 2005-2015 particularly in the North. In the same period five states showed a large increase in lifespan inequality.
Conclusions After ten years of the unexpected increase of violence in Mexico, the country has not been able to reduce the levels homicides to those prior to 2005. Thus, life expectancy slowed down and inequality of lifespans increased among young Mexican males.