Key uncertainties and modeling needs for managing living marine resources in the future Arctic

This repository containes the main code and data outputs for the manuscript Key uncertainties and modeling needs for managing living marine resources in the future Arctic published on the journal Earth's Future in 2024. Publication reference:

Mason, J. G., Bryndum-Buchholz, A., Palacios-Abrantes, J., Badhe, R., Morgante, I., Bianchi, D., Blanchard, J. L., Everett, J. D., Harrison, C. S., Heneghan, R. F., Novaglio, C. and Petrik, C. M., 2024. Key Uncertainties and Modeling Needs for Managing Living Marine Resources in the Future Arctic Ocean. Earth’s Future, 12 (8).

Data and code also available for download at Zenodo:

Authors

Julia G. Mason,1 Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz2, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes3, Renuka Badhe4, Isabella Morgante3, Daniele Bianchi5, Julia L. Blanchard6,7, Jason D. Everett8,9,10, Cheryl S. Harrison11, Ryan F. Heneghan12, Camilla Novaglio6,7, Colleen M. Petrik13

Author affiliations

• Environmental Defense Fund, 18 Tremont St. Ste 850, Boston MA 02108
• Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, Canada
• Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries,The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
• European Polar Board, Laan van Nieuw-Oost-Indië 300, 2593 CE The Hague, Netherlands
• Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
• Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
• Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
• School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia.
• Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
• Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
• Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
• School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Petrie, Australia
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, USA

Keywords

climate change, marine ecosystem models, risk, FishMIP, structural uncertainty, Central Arctic Ocean

Files and folders organization:

In this repository you will find all of the code related to the manuscript Key uncertainties and modeling needs for managing living marine resources in the future Arctic

• functions, this repository contains any personalized function needed to run the analysis
  • load_libraries.R, function to load all libraries needed
• R, contains the R scripts needed to run the analysis
  • arctic_esm_uncert_analysis.Rmd, script used to estimate the difference in proejctions between ESMs shown on figure 2
  • cdf_to_csv.Rmd, script to man ipulate the FishMip data and transform it to .csv for further analysis
  • fishimp_analysis.Rmd, main script for data manipulation, cleaning anad analysis for project.
• results, contains the two main datasets outputed from this project
  • proportion_cahnge_ssp_126, results for the proportion change analysis for each Arctic Large Merine Ecosystem under SSP1-2.6
  • proportion_cahnge_ssp_585, results for the proportion change analysis for each Arctic Large Merine Ecosystem under SSP5-8.5

Data

Model output data used for this analysis can be extracted from FishMIP, available at (https://www.isimip.org/about/marine-ecosystems-fisheries/). Outputs for ESMs can be found in the ISIMIP website (https://data.isimip.org/). Polygons for the Arctic Large Marine Ecoregions were extracted from Protection Of The Marine Environment-PAME (https://pame.is/projects/ecosystem-approach/arctic-large-marine-ecosystems-lme-s)

This repository has been archived and is no longer updated. The master branch contains the most updated version. You can dowload the V1 zip file to reproduce paper's figures and analyses. Septemebr of 2024