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@article{baldocchi2008accumulated,
title={Accumulated winter chill is decreasing in the fruit growing regions of California},
author={Baldocchi, Dennis and Wong, Simon},
journal={Climatic Change},
volume={87},
number={1},
pages={153--166},
year={2008},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-007-9367-8},
publisher={Springer}
}
@book{crossa1955effets,
title={Effets des hivers doux sur le comportement des arbres fruitiers {\`a} feuilles caduques: Observations faites en Tunisie {\`a} la suite de l'hiver 1954-1955},
author={Crossa-Raynaud, P},
year={1955},
publisher={Impr. La Rapide}
}
@article{linvill1990calculating,
title={Calculating chilling hours and chill units from daily maximum and minimum temperature observations},
author={Linvill, Dale E.},
journal={HortScience},
volume={25},
number={1},
pages={14--16},
year={1990},
doi={10.21273/HORTSCI.25.1.14},
publisher={American Society for Horticultural Science}
}
@article{spencer1971fourier,
title={Fourier series reprensentation of the position of the sun},
author={Spencer, JW},
journal={Search},
volume={2},
number={5},
pages={172},
year={1971}
}
@article{almorox2005statistical,
title={Statistical validation of daylength definitions for estimation of global solar radiation in Toledo, Spain},
author={Almorox, J and Hontoria, C and Benito, M},
journal={Energy Conversion and Management},
volume={46},
number={9-10},
pages={1465--1471},
year={2005},
doi={doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2004.07.007},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{luedeling_climate_2009,
title = {Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the {Arabian} {Peninsula}},
volume = {96},
issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-009-9581-7},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-009-9581-7},
abstract = {Fruit production systems that rely on winter chill for breaking of dormancy might be vulnerable to climatic change. We investigated decreases in the number of winter chilling hours (0–7.2◦C) in four mountain oases of Oman, a marginal area for the production of fruit trees with chilling requirements. Winter chill was calculated from long-term hourly temperature records. These were generated based on the correlation of hourly temperature measurements in the oases with daylength and daily minimum and maximum temperatures recorded at a nearby weather station. Winter chill was estimated for historic temperature records between 1983 and 2008, as well as for three sets of synthetic 100-year weather records, generated to represent historic conditions, and climatic changes likely to occur within the next 30 years (temperatures elevated by 1◦C and 2◦C). Our analysis detected a decrease in the numbers of chilling hours in high-elevation oases by an average of 1.2–9.5 h/year between 1983 and 2008, a period during which, according to the scenario analysis, winter chill was sufficient for most important species in most years in the highest oasis. In the two climate change scenarios, pomegranates, the most important tree crop, received insufficient chilling in 13\% and 75\% of years, respectively. While production of most traditional fruit trees is marginal today, with trees barely fulfilling their chilling requirements, such production might become impossible in the near future. Similar developments are likely to affect other fruit production regions around the world.},
language = {en},
number = {1-2},
urldate = {2020-06-10},
journal = {Climatic Change},
author = {Luedeling, Eike and Gebauer, Jens and Buerkert, Andreas},
month = sep,
year = {2009},
pages = {219--237},
file = {Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Climate change effects on winter chill for tree cr.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\GH3R36FR\\Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Climate change effects on winter chill for tree cr.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{luedeling_interpolating_2018,
title = {Interpolating hourly temperatures for computing agroclimatic metrics},
volume = {62},
issn = {0020-7128, 1432-1254},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00484-018-1582-7},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-018-1582-7},
abstract = {Calculating many agroclimatic metrics, e.g., chill or heat accumulation in orchards, requires continuous records of hourly temperature. Such records are often unavailable, with farm managers and researchers relying on daily data or hourly records with gaps. While procedures for generating idealized temperature curves exist, interpolating hourly records has long been a challenge. The SolveHours procedure combines measured hourly temperatures, idealized daily temperature curves and proxy data to fill gaps in such records. It first determines daily temperature extremes by solving systems of linear equations that express the typical relationships between hourly temperatures and daily temperature extremes for every hour. After filling gaps in this record with bias-corrected data from proxy stations or by linear interpolation, SolveHours uses these data to generate an idealized temperature curve. Deviations of recorded hourly temperatures from this curve are calculated, linearly interpolated, and added to the idealized curve to obtain a gapless record. The procedure was compared to alternative gap-filling algorithms using an 8-month dataset from an orchard near Winters, CA, in which half the records were replaced by 500 gaps of random length. The SolveHours procedure achieved ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) values of 6.7 (when using temperature extremes from a proxy station) and 8.2 (with temperature extremes measured on site), with root mean square errors of 1.6 and 1.3 °C, respectively. It outperformed all other algorithms in reproducing recorded accumulation of Chill Portions and Growing Degree Hours. The SolveHours procedure is implemented in the chillR package for the R programming environment (https:// cran.r-project.org/web/packages/chillR/vignettes/hourly\_temperatures.html).},
language = {en},
number = {10},
urldate = {2019-02-01},
journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
author = {Luedeling, Eike},
month = oct,
year = {2018},
pages = {1799--1807},
file = {Luedeling - 2018 - Interpolating hourly temperatures for computing ag.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\MEZJSZK9\\Luedeling - 2018 - Interpolating hourly temperatures for computing ag.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{richardson1974model,
title={A model for estimating the completion of rest for "Redhaven" and "Elberta" peach trees},
author={Richardson, EA and Seeley, SD and Walker, DR},
journal={HortScience},
volume={9},
number={4},
pages={331--332},
year={1974}
}
@article{luedeling2009validation,
title={Validation of winter chill models using historic records of walnut phenology},
author={Luedeling, Eike and Zhang, Minghua and McGranahan, Gale and Leslie, Charles},
journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
volume={149},
number={11},
pages={1854--1864},
year={2009},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{luedeling_sensitivity_2009,
title = {Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees to climatic changes expected in {California}'s {Central} {Valley}},
volume = {133},
issn = {01678809},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167880909001248},
doi = {10.1016/j.agee.2009.04.016},
abstract = {Many fruit and nut crops require cold temperatures in winter to break dormancy. Quantifying this chilling requirement and selecting appropriate cultivars for the climate of a growing region is crucial for successful cultivation of such crops. Several models exist to quantify winter chill, and each growing region uses a model that has been shown to perform well under local climatic conditions. We tested the sensitivity of four commonly used chilling models to projected climatic change likely to affect fruit and nut production in the near future.},
language = {en},
number = {1-2},
urldate = {2020-06-10},
journal = {Agriculture, Ecosystems \& Environment},
author = {Luedeling, Eike and Zhang, Minghua and Luedeling, Volker and Girvetz, Evan H.},
month = sep,
year = {2009},
pages = {23--31},
file = {Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and n.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\7CD243PC\\Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and n.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@Manual{ExcelDM,
title = {Dynamic Model Chilling Portions (Excel worksheet)},
author = {Erez, A and Fishman, S},
year = {1997},
url = {http://ucanr.edu/sites/fruittree/files/49319.xls},
}
@article{luedeling_climatic_2009,
title = {Climatic {Changes} {Lead} to {Declining} {Winter} {Chill} for {Fruit} and {Nut} {Trees} in {California} during 1950–2099},
volume = {4},
issn = {1932-6203},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006166},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0006166},
abstract = {Background: Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location’s suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model).
Methodology/Principal Findings: Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041–2060 and 2080–2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, ‘‘safe winter chill’’, the 10\% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50–75\% by mid-21st century, and 90–100\% by late century.
Conclusions/Significance: Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.},
language = {en},
number = {7},
urldate = {2020-06-10},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
author = {Luedeling, Eike and Zhang, Minghua and Girvetz, Evan H.},
editor = {Hazen, Samuel P.},
month = jul,
year = {2009},
pages = {e6166},
file = {Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill fo.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\62WI6REG\\Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill fo.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{luedeling_global_2011,
title = {A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees},
volume = {55},
issn = {0020-7128, 1432-1254},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00484-010-0352-y},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-010-0352-y},
language = {en},
number = {3},
urldate = {2019-02-01},
journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
author = {Luedeling, Eike and Brown, Patrick H.},
month = may,
year = {2011},
keywords = {cultivars, heat requirements, plants, prediction, temperature-dependence, Chilling requirement, phenology, simulation, climate-change, Chill Portions, Chilling Hours, dormancy breaking, rest, Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, Biophysics, Meteorology \& Atmospheric, Physiology, Sciences, completion, Dynamic Model, Utah Model, Winter chill},
pages = {411--421},
file = {Luedeling und Brown - 2011 - A global analysis of the comparability of winter c.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\GQSDN6UH\\Luedeling und Brown - 2011 - A global analysis of the comparability of winter c.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{luedeling2011climate,
title={Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees},
author={Luedeling, Eike and Girvetz, Evan H and Semenov, Mikhail A and Brown, Patrick H},
journal={PloS one},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0020155},
volume={6},
number={5},
year={2011},
pages={e20155},
publisher={Public Library of Science}
}
@article{luedeling_auswirkungen_2009,
title = {Auswirkungen des {Klimawandels} auf die {Verfügbarkeit} von {Kältewirkung} ({Chilling}) für {Obstgehölze} in {Deutschland}},
volume = {51},
issn = {0014-0309, 1439-0302},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10341-009-0085-4},
doi = {10.1007/s10341-009-0085-4},
abstract = {To quantify the effects of climate change on fruit production in Germany, this study aimed at determining long-term trends in winter chill, as calculated with the Chilling Hours and Dynamic Models (Chill Portions). An idealized daily temperature curve was used to convert daily temperature records from 43 weather stations, taken throughout the twentieth and late nineteenth centuries, into an hourly dataset, which was then converted to units of winter chill. Besides exposing temporal trends in winter chill, the data could be spatially interpolated, yielding contiguous maps of typical winter chill in Germany around 2010, as well as chilling losses since 1950.},
language = {de},
number = {3},
urldate = {2020-06-10},
journal = {Erwerbs-Obstbau},
author = {Luedeling, Eike and Blanke, Michael and Gebauer, Jens},
month = sep,
year = {2009},
pages = {81--94},
file = {Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Verfügbarkei.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\K3RMZ8SE\\Luedeling et al. - 2009 - Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Verfügbarkei.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{benmoussa2017chilling,
title={Chilling and heat requirements for local and foreign almond (\textit{Prunus {dulcis}} Mill.) cultivars in a warm Mediterranean location based on 30 years of phenology records},
author={Benmoussa, Ha{\"\i}fa and Ghrab, Mohamed and Mimoun, Mehdi Ben and Luedeling, Eike},
journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
volume={239},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.02.030},
pages={34--46},
year={2017},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{benmoussa_performance_2017,
title = {Performance of pistachio (\textit{{Pistacia} {vera}} {L}.) in warming {Mediterranean} orchards},
volume = {140},
copyright = {All rights reserved},
issn = {00988472},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0098847217301119},
doi = {10.1016/j.envexpbot.2017.05.007},
abstract = {Woody perennial species from temperate regions fall dormant during the cold winter season to avoid unfavourable conditions. To break out of dormancy and eventually flower, they must fulfil cultivar-specific chilling and heat requirements. Phenology analysis can clarify the climatic requirements of tree cultivars and thus provide critical information to ensure the future viability of orchards in warm growing regions, where warmer winters are expected as a result of climate change. We used Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression to correlate first bloom dates of 4 local and 3 foreign pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) cultivars with daily chill and heat accumulation (quantified with the Dynamic Model and Growing Degree Hours Model, respectively) for 18-year records (1997–2016) from Sfax, Tunisia. PLS outputs allowed delineation of the chilling phase, during which high chill accumulation was correlated to early bloom, and the forcing phase, when this was true for high heat accumulation. Both phases showed discontinuities. During September and October, high heat accumulation appeared to first have a bloom-delaying effect, followed by a bloom-advancing effect, indicating that temperature during dormancy induction may affect bloom dates. Chilling requirements were estimated between 32.1 ± 2.3 and 33.3 ± 2.2 Chill Portions and heat requirements between 9974 ± 198 and 12,738 ± 235 Growing Degree Hours. This study revealed limitations of the Dynamic Model, which is often considered the most accurate among commonly used models, in the warm Tunisian climate. High temperatures during the chilling phase had a significant bloom-delaying effect on all pistachio cultivars. Low chill accumulation was related to very low yields and associated with zero production in 1995, 2001 and 2007. Low flowering percentage, high bud fall percentage, long and inhomogeneous bloom, and co-occurrence of several phenological stages on the same branch were symptoms of lack of chill in 2016.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2019-02-01},
journal = {Environmental and Experimental Botany},
author = {Benmoussa, Haïfa and Luedeling, Eike and Ghrab, Mohamed and Ben Yahmed, Jihène and Ben Mimoun, Mehdi},
month = aug,
year = {2017},
pages = {76--85},
file = {Benmoussa et al. - 2017 - Performance of pistachio ( Pistacia vera L.) in wa.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\BKS9LA8V\\Benmoussa et al. - 2017 - Performance of pistachio ( Pistacia vera L.) in wa.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{platts2015africlim,
title={AFRICLIM: high-resolution climate projections for ecological applications in Africa},
author={Platts, Philip John and Omeny, Peter and Marchant, Robert},
journal={African Journal of Ecology},
pages={103--108},
year={2015},
doi={10.1111/aje.12180},
publisher={York}
}
@article{fernandez2020prospects,
title={Prospects of decreasing winter chill for deciduous fruit production in Chile throughout the 21st century},
author={Fernandez, Eduardo and Whitney, Cory and Cuneo, Italo F and Luedeling, Eike},
journal={Climatic Change},
volumn={159},
pages={423--439},
year={2020},
doi={10.1007/s10584-019-02608-1},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{delclimate,
title={Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier--perspectives for farming in North Patagonia},
author={{del Barrio}, Ricardo and Fernandez, Eduardo and Brendel, Andrea S and Whitney, Cory and Campoy, Jose A and Luedeling, Eike},
journal={International Journal of Climatology},
volume={41},
number={1},
pages={726--742},
year={2020},
doi={doi.org/10.1002/joc.6649},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{benmoussa2018climate,
title={Climate change threatens central Tunisian nut orchards},
author={Benmoussa, Ha{\"\i}fa and Mimoun, Mehdi Ben and Ghrab, Mohamed and Luedeling, Eike},
journal={International journal of biometeorology},
volume={62},
number={12},
pages={2245--2255},
year={2018},
doi={10.1007/s00484-018-1628-x},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{fernandez2020importance,
title={The importance of chill model selection—a multi-site analysis},
author={Fernandez, Eduardo and Whitney, Cory and Luedeling, Eike},
journal={European Journal of Agronomy},
volume={119},
pages={126103},
year={2020},
doi={10.1016/j.eja.2020.126103},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{buerkert2020revisiting,
title={Revisiting climate change effects on winter chill in mountain oases of northern Oman},
author={Buerkert, Andreas and Fernandez, Eduardo and Tietjen, Beke and Luedeling, Eike},
journal={Climatic Change},
volume={162},
pages={1399--1417},
year={2020},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02862-8},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{benmoussa2020severe,
title={Severe winter chill decline impacts Tunisian fruit and nut orchards},
author={Benmoussa, Ha{\"\i}fa and Luedeling, Eike and Ghrab, Mohamed and Mimoun, Mehdi Ben},
journal={Climatic Change},
volume={162},
pages={1249--1267},
year={2020},
doi={10.1007/s10584-020-02774-7},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{hanninen_experiments_2019,
title = {Experiments Are Necessary in Process-Based Tree Phenology Modelling},
volume = {24},
issn = {13601385},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1360138518302681},
doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2018.11.006},
pages = {199--209},
number = {3},
journaltitle = {Trends in Plant Science},
author = {Hänninen, Heikki and Kramer, Koen and Tanino, Karen and Zhang, Rui and Wu, Jiasheng and Fu, Yongshuo H.},
urldate = {2020-08-26},
date = {2019-03},
langid = {english},
file = {10.1016@j.tplants.2018.11.006.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/BVK49HWZ/10.1016@j.tplants.2018.11.006.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{singh_photoperiod-_2017,
title = {Photoperiod- and temperature-mediated control of phenology in trees - a molecular perspective},
volume = {213},
issn = {0028646X},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/nph.14346},
doi = {10.1111/nph.14346},
pages = {511--524},
number = {2},
journaltitle = {New Phytologist},
author = {Singh, Rajesh Kumar and Svystun, Tetiana and {AlDahmash}, Badr and Jönsson, Anna Maria and Bhalerao, Rishikesh P.},
urldate = {2020-08-26},
date = {2017-01},
langid = {english},
file = {nph.14346.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/URLNTG3W/nph.14346.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{gaeta_evaluation_2018,
title = {Evaluation of three modelling approaches for almond blooming in Mediterranean climate conditions},
volume = {97},
issn = {1161-0301},
doi = {10.1016/j.eja.2018.04.005},
abstract = {Chilling and heat requirements for breaking dormancy and flowering were studied in seven almond cultivars in Southern Italy. Chilling portions ({CP}), computed through the Dynamic model, and growing degree hours ({GDH}) were used to determine chill and heat accumulation, respectively. Then, using full bloom dates and temperature data from nine seasons (2003/2004-2007/2008 and 2009/2010-2012/2013), three sequential methods for the estimation of thermal requirements were compared: 1) the Ashcroft Method ({AM}), where chilling and heat requirements were selected considering the lowest variability of the {GDH} at several intervals of {CP}, and two variations: 2) modified Ashcroft Method ({AMm}) that took into consideration the lowest variability in both {CP} and {GDH}, and 3) reverse Ashcroft Method ({AMr}) opposite to {AM}. All methods were effective in predicting full bloom dates; however the modified Ashcroft method was the most accurate under Mediterranean conditions and allowed to classify almond cultivars for their thermal requirements. The results from {AMm}, showed chilling requirements ranging between 24-62 {CP} and heat requirements between 3263 and 6699 {GDH}, respectively.},
pages = {1--10},
journaltitle = {European Journal of Agronomy},
shortjournal = {Eur. J. Agron.},
author = {Gaeta, Liliana and Stellacci, Anna Maria and Losciale, Pasquale},
date = {2018-07},
note = {{WOS}:000436224900001},
keywords = {Flowering, sweet cherry, endodormancy break, Sequential model, Dynamic model, Dormancy, heat requirements, deciduous fruit-trees, temperate fruit, prediction model, rest completion, chilling requirements, bud break, dormancy breaking, Growing degree hour, Prunus amygdalus Batsch},
file = {Gaeta_etal_2018_EuropJAgron.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/693WCWWM/Gaeta_etal_2018_EuropJAgron.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{nash_river_1970,
title = {River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles},
volume = {10},
issn = {0022-1694},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0022169470902556},
doi = {10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6},
abstract = {The principles governing the application of the conceptual model technique to river flow forecasting are discussed. The necessity for a systematic approach to the development and testing of the model is explained and some preliminary ideas suggested.},
pages = {282--290},
number = {3},
journaltitle = {Journal of Hydrology},
shortjournal = {Journal of Hydrology},
author = {Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.},
urldate = {2020-08-07},
date = {1970-04-01},
langid = {english}
}
@book{burnham_model_2003,
title = {Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach},
isbn = {978-0-387-95364-9},
shorttitle = {Model Selection and Multimodel Inference},
abstract = {We wrote this book to introduce graduate students and research workers in various scienti?c disciplines to the use of information-theoretic approaches in the analysis of empirical data. These methods allow the data-based selection of a “best” model and a ranking and weighting of the remaining models in a pre-de?ned set. Traditional statistical inference can then be based on this selected best model. However, we now emphasize that information-theoretic approaches allow formal inference to be based on more than one model (m- timodel inference). Such procedures lead to more robust inferences in many cases, and we advocate these approaches throughout the book. The second edition was prepared with three goals in mind. First, we have tried to improve the presentation of the material. Boxes now highlight ess- tial expressions and points. Some reorganization has been done to improve the ?ow of concepts, and a new chapter has been added. Chapters 2 and 4 have been streamlined in view of the detailed theory provided in Chapter 7. S- ond, concepts related to making formal inferences from more than one model (multimodel inference) have been emphasized throughout the book, but p- ticularly in Chapters 4, 5, and 6. Third, new technical material has been added to Chapters 5 and 6. Well over 100 new references to the technical literature are given. These changes result primarily from our experiences while giving several seminars, workshops, and graduate courses on material in the ?rst e- tion.},
pagetotal = {512},
publisher = {Springer Science \& Business Media},
author = {Burnham, Kenneth P. and Anderson, David R.},
date = {2003-12-04},
langid = {english},
keywords = {Mathematics / Probability \& Statistics / General, Mathematics / Probability \& Statistics / Stochastic Processes, Medical / Biostatistics, Science / Life Sciences / Ecology}
}
@article{chmielewski_performance_2016,
title = {Performance of models for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom under current and changed climate conditions},
volume = {218-219},
issn = {01681923},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192315007881},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.022},
abstract = {Six phenological models, two simple forcing (F)-models and one sequential chilling/forcing ({CF})-model, each with and without day length ({DL})-term in the forcing approach were optimised (2001–2010) and validated (2011–2015) on very accurate blossoming data of an experimental sweet cherry orchard at Berlin-Dahlem (cultivar ‘Summit’). In parallel, in 3 seasons (2011/2012–2013/2014) climate chamber experiments were performed in order to determine the end of dormancy for ‘Summit’, which is usually an unknown or uncertain parameter in phenological modelling. Additionally, in the season 2013/2014 an in situ climate change experiment on three trees in the sweet cherry orchard were arranged, which was used to validate the phenological models for distinctly warmer climate conditions at the experimental site. On the basis of our climate chamber experiments we quantified the chilling requirement of ‘Summit’ trees. Thus, we were able to identify a {CF}-model for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom which is mostly physiologically based and works well for current and for future climate conditions at the experimental site. This paper also shows how phenological models can fail under warmer climates, if either the model is too simple or the model parameters are wrong. Additional, we confirmed that phenological models with {DL}-term in the forcing approach clearly surpassed the conventional phenological models without this parameter. The reason for this behaviour is extensively discussed.},
pages = {85--91},
journaltitle = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
author = {Chmielewski, Frank-M. and Götz, Klaus-Peter},
urldate = {2020-07-17},
date = {2016-03},
langid = {english},
file = {chmielewski2016.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/QE67HH8F/chmielewski2016.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{caffarra_modelling_2011,
title = {Modelling the timing of Betula pubescens budburst. {II}. Integrating complex effects of photoperiod into process-based models},
volume = {46},
issn = {0936-577X, 1616-1572},
url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v46/n2/p159-170/},
doi = {10.3354/cr00983},
abstract = {Despite experimental evidence of the individual and interactive effects of photoperiod and temperature on bud growth, photoperiod has not yet been effectively accounted for in models of budburst. However, in some tree species, such as Betula pubescens (birch), photoperiod has an important role in phenological control, and its inclusion in process-based models of budburst might affect phenological projections under climate change scenarios. The aim of the present study was to integrate photoperiod into a process-based phenological model (Chuine 2000; J Theor Biol 207: 337–347; Unified model), using experimental findings in which photoperiod was found to significantly affect budburst in B. pubescens (Caffarra et al. 2011; Clim Res 46:147–157, this issue). The effect of photoperiod was integrated into the model at 2 levels. Firstly, photoperiod, in interaction with temperature, affects the course of dormancy induction. Secondly, photoperiod modifies the response to temperature during the phase of forcing. The resulting model ({DORMPHOT}) for the simulation of birch budburst was fitted to a large phenological dataset, including data from different latitudes, and validated with 7 datasets from 4 different European countries. Besides giving more biological realism to the model, the newly introduced mechanisms improved its predictive performance. The {DORMPHOT} model outperformed the Unified model, the linear regression model (budburst date vs. spring average temperature), and the {UniForc} model. It also proved to be more accurate at predicting budburst in extremely warm years, which suggests it might be more reliable than previous models when using future climate change scenarios.},
pages = {159--170},
number = {2},
journaltitle = {Climate Research},
author = {Caffarra, A and Donnelly, A and Chuine, I},
urldate = {2020-07-17},
date = {2011-03-08},
langid = {english},
file = {c046p159.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/HVGLPDW5/c046p159.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{blumel_shortcomings_2012,
title = {Shortcomings of classical phenological forcing models and a way to overcome them},
volume = {164},
issn = {01681923},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192312001700},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.05.001},
abstract = {A theoretical study proves that the common Spring-Warming model, which is widely used in phenological studies and frequently described in the literature, has systematic defects that do not allow a reliable projection of phenological stages for the future (e.g., up to 2100). When calculating spring phenological phases (e.g., beginning of blossom or leaf unfolding, etc.), defects occur because either the advance in blossom is included implicitly in the model and cannot be calibrated sufficiently to observations, or the model parameters attain unphysiological values or lie in a range so that a prognosis for the far future cannot be accomplished. Therefore, the introduction of a daylength term is suggested, which improves the Spring-Warming model and eliminates almost all of the discussed shortcomings. The performance of this improved model is demonstrated by calculating the beginning of apple blossom in Germany. For this purpose, we compared the improved model (M1) with three different versions of the original Spring-Warming model (M2–M4). The models were calibrated (optimized) using observed blossoming and temperature data (1962–2009), which have been regionalized on a 0.2◦ grid. The optimization was done for a representative grid point. The performance of the various model versions in predicting the beginning of apple blossom was compared with observations from independent years, which were not used in the optimization. Also, the beginning of blossom and its possible future changes were calculated with these models, using temperatures from the Regional Climate Model {REMO}-{UBA} with {GHG} emission scenario A1B (2001–2100). The new daylength term improved the performance of model M1 remarkably, and the model calibration automatically led to model parameters with meaningful values. These results, which were confirmed by other fruit tree species and locations, provided strong evidence that the conventional Spring-Warming models in phenology must be extended by photoperiodic sensitivity, at least for species which are photosensitive.},
pages = {10--19},
journaltitle = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
author = {Blümel, Klaus and Chmielewski, Frank-M.},
urldate = {2020-07-17},
date = {2012-10},
langid = {english},
file = {Shortcomings.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/IA3YL4HD/Shortcomings.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{harrington_modeling_2010,
title = {Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir},
volume = {259},
issn = {0378-1127},
doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.06.018},
abstract = {Most temperate woody plants have a winter chilling requirement to prevent budburst during midwinter periods of warm weather. The date of spring budburst is dependent on both chilling and forcing; modeling this date is an important part of predicting potential effects of global warming on trees. There is no clear evidence from the literature that the curves of chilling or forcing effectiveness differ by species so we combined our data and published information to develop new curves on the effectiveness of temperature for chilling and forcing. The new curves predict effectiveness over a wide range of temperatures and we suggest both functions may be operating at the same time. We present experimental data from 13 winter environments for 5 genotypes of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) and use them to test various assumptions of starting and stopping dates for accumulating chilling and forcing units and the relationship between budburst and the accumulation of chilling and forcing units. Chilling started too early to be effective in one treatment but the other 12 environments resulted in budburst from many combinations of chilling and forcing. Previous reports have suggested benefits or cancellations of effects from alternating day/night or periodic temperatures. Our simple models do not include these effects but nevertheless were effective in predicting relationships between chilling and forcing for treatments with a wide range of conditions. Overall, the date of budburst changed only slightly (+1 to -11 days) across a wide range of treatments in our colder test environment (Olympia, {WA}, {USA}) but was substantially later (+29 days) in the warmest treatment in our warmer environment (Corvallis, {OR}, {USA}). An analysis of historical climate data for both environments predicted a wide range in date to budburst could result from the same mean temperature due to the relative weightings of specific temperatures in the chilling and forcing functions. In the absence of improved understanding of the basic physiological mechanisms involved in dormancy induction and release, we suggest that simple, universal functions be considered for modeling the effectiveness of temperature for chilling and forcing. Future research should be designed to determine the exact shape of the curves; data are particularly lacking at the temperature extremes. We discuss the implications of our data and proposed functions for predicting effects of climate change. Both suggest that the trend toward earlier budburst will be reversed if winter temperatures rise substantially. Published by Elsevier B.V.},
pages = {798--808},
number = {4},
journaltitle = {Forest Ecology and Management},
shortjournal = {For. Ecol. Manage.},
author = {Harrington, C. A. and Gould, P. J. and St Clair, J. B.},
date = {2010-02},
keywords = {seedlings, Forestry, requirements, Climate change, chilling, Modeling, Chilling, Global warming, Dormancy, betula-pendula, bud-burst phenology, shoot apical meristem, flushing temperature, Forcing, cambial meristem, cold-storage, mitotic index, vernalization},
file = {Harrington_etal_2010_ForEcolManagem.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/7C5PGST5/Harrington_etal_2010_ForEcolManagem.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{cannell_thermal_1983,
title = {Thermal Time, Chill Days and Prediction of Budburst in Picea sitchensis},
volume = {20},
issn = {0021-8901},
url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/2403139},
doi = {10.2307/2403139},
abstract = {[(1) The dates of budhurst of lateral shoots on 2- to 10-year old trees of Picea sitchensis were recorded on fourteen occasions at sites near meteorological stations in lowland and upland Britain between 1960 and 1980. (2) The following relationship accounted for 92\% of the variation in thermal time from 1 February to the date of budburst among the fourteen observations: thermal time = 67.4 + 4401.8 exp (-0.042 x chill days) where thermal time was day degrees {\textgreater}5 ⚬C accumulated from 1 February, and chill days were the number of days ⩽5 ⚬C counted from 1 November, both based on mean daily air temperature ((max. + min.)/2). This model may be used to estimate the date of budburst on young P. sitchensis of most provenances growing in upland Britain. (3) The following features or assumptions of the model were examined with reference to the literature and/or by experimentation: the small effect of provenance; linearity in the relationship between bud growth rate and temperature; the large effect of chilling on thermal time to budhurst; the omission of daylength and soil temperature as variables; the choice of starting dates for effective chilling and thermal time; and the use of simple fixed base temperatures. (4) The model was applied to mean daily temperatures at Eskdalemuir for the period 1912-82. The predicted dates of budburst ranged from 23 April in 1961 to 30 May in 1923, with a mean date of 12 May.]},
pages = {951--963},
number = {3},
journaltitle = {Journal of Applied Ecology},
author = {Cannell, M. G. R. and Smith, R. I.},
urldate = {2019-02-04},
date = {1983},
file = {Cannell_Smith_1983_JApplEcol.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/KRIIGQZ9/Cannell_Smith_1983_JApplEcol.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{landsberg_apple_1974,
title = {Apple fruit bud development and growth; analysis and an empirical model},
volume = {38},
issn = {1095-8290},
pages = {1013--1023},
number = {5},
journaltitle = {Annals of Botany},
shortjournal = {Annals of Botany},
author = {Landsberg, {JJ}},
date = {1974},
file = {Landsberg - 1974 - Apple fruit bud development and growth\; analysis a.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/K88VPVXZ/Landsberg - 1974 - Apple fruit bud development and growth\; analysis a.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{ashcroft_statistical_1977,
title = {A statistical method of determining chill unit and growing degree hour requirements for deciduous fruit trees.},
issn = {0018-5345},
url = {http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=US19780226119},
journaltitle = {{HortScience}},
author = {Ashcroft, G. L. and Richarson, E. A. and Seeley, S. D.},
urldate = {2020-03-30},
date = {1977}
}
@article{richardson_climate_2013,
title = {Climate change, phenology, and phenological control of vegetation feedbacks to the climate system},
volume = {169},
issn = {0168-1923},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.012},
abstract = {Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change. Phenology also controls many feedbacks of vegetation to the climate system by influencing the seasonality of albedo, surface roughness length, canopy conductance, and fluxes of water, energy, {CO}2 and biogenic volatile organic compounds. In this review, we first discuss the environmental drivers of phenology, and the impacts of climate change on phenology, in different biomes. We then examine the vegetation-climate feedbacks that are mediated by phenology, and assess the potential impact on these feedbacks of shifts in phenology driven by climate change. We finish with an overview of phenological modeling and we suggest ways in which models might be improved using existing data sets. Several key weaknesses in our current understanding emerge from this analysis. First, we need a better understanding of the drivers of phenology, particularly in under-studied biomes (e.g. tropical forests). We do not have a mechanistic understanding of the role of photoperiod, even in well-studied biomes. In all biomes, the factors controlling senescence and dormancy are not well-documented. Second, for the most part (i.e. with the exception of phenology impacts on {CO}2 exchange) we have only a qualitative understanding of the feedbacks between vegetation and climate that are mediated by phenology. We need to quantify the magnitude of these feedbacks, and ensure that they are accurately reproduced by models. Third, we need to work towards a new understanding of phenological processes that enables progress beyond the modeling paradigms currently in use. Accurate representation of phenological processes in models that couple the land surface to the climate system is particularly important, especially when such models are being used to predict future climate. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
pages = {156--173},
journaltitle = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
shortjournal = {Agric. For. Meteorol.},
author = {Richardson, A. D. and Keenan, T. F. and Migliavacca, M. and Ryu, Y. and Sonnentag, O. and Toomey, M.},
date = {2013-02},
keywords = {forest, Forestry, Climate change, Phenology, Global warming, cycle, Agriculture, Meteorology \& Atmospheric Sciences, leaf bud burst, Budburst, Autumn senescence, Biosphere-atmosphere interactions, boreal aspen forest, Carbon, carbon-dioxide exchange, deciduous, interannual variability, Models, net ecosystem productivity, northern hardwood forest, organic-compounds, Seasonality, Spring onset, spring starting earlier, terrestrial biosphere model, volatile}
}
@article{basler_evaluating_2016,
title = {Evaluating phenological models for the prediction of leaf-out dates in six temperate tree species across central Europe},
volume = {217},
issn = {0168-1923},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.007},
abstract = {Inter-annual variation in climate is reflected by changes in the timing of phenology. Over the last decades a considerable number of models have been developed in order to explain the inter-annual variation of spring phenology in trees. Contrary to empirical models, "process-based" models aim at simulating physiological processes in order to yield more realistic predictions of growing season onset dates. Despite the increasing knowledge on the environmental controls of seasonal dormancy in trees, the detailed action and interaction of the involved environmental drivers (chilling, photoperiod and warm temperature) remains to be elucidated. This study aims at a uniform comparison of a wide range of existing models (and new recombinations), on a multitude of long-term observation series in six tree species across central Europe, using extensive cross-validation. Even though the assessed models differ in the phases of dormancy and environmental drivers accounted for, they yielded a surprisingly similar quality of prediction of leaf unfolding dates. Depending on the species, the lowest average prediction errors for leaf unfolding ({RMSE}) ranged from 7 to 9 days for the dataset pooled across sites and years and from 4 to 6 days for site-specific predictions, in absence of any obvious geographical pattern. Simple models, that feature ecodormancy release only, performed similar or better than more complex models, which additionally include endodormancy release through chilling temperatures. Model parameterisation tended to converge towards similar behaviour and models with many parameters tended to overfit on the 40 year time-series of leaf unfolding. Additionally, all models tended to underestimate the inter-annual variation of leaf unfolding and failed to predict very early or late dates of leaf unfolding in certain years. The transfer of site-specific parameters to other sites was associated with an almost doubling of the average prediction error, independent of distance and climatic similarity between the calibration and validation sites. The findings challenge the accurate implementation of the physiological processes controlling spring phenology in the models and highlight shortcomings associated with model parameterisation on observational time-series only. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
pages = {10--21},
journaltitle = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
shortjournal = {Agric. For. Meteorol.},
author = {Basler, D.},
date = {2016-02},
keywords = {Spring phenology, climate-change, temperature, Forestry, douglas-fir, Temperature, Chilling, Agriculture, Meteorology \& Atmospheric Sciences, betula-pendula, Bud burst, bud-burst phenology, dormancy breaking, flushing, norway spruce, Photoperiod, picea-abies, Process-based, spring phenology, thermal time},
file = {Basler_2016_AgriForestMeteorol.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/MYSFR54Y/Basler_2016_AgriForestMeteorol.pdf:application/pdf;BaslerAFM2016_Supplement.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/YPML3JLZ/BaslerAFM2016_Supplement.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{lundell_beyond_2020,
title = {Beyond rest and quiescence (endodormancy and ecodormancy): A novel model for quantifying plant–environment interaction in bud dormancy release},
volume = {43},
issn = {0140-7791, 1365-3040},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pce.13650},
doi = {10.1111/pce.13650},
shorttitle = {Beyond rest and quiescence (endodormancy and ecodormancy)},
abstract = {Bud dormancy of plants has traditionally been explained either by physiological growth arresting conditions in the bud or by unfavourable environmental conditions, such as non-growth-promoting low air temperatures. This conceptual dichotomy has provided the framework also for developing process-based plant phenology models. Here, we propose a novel model that in addition to covering the classical dichotomy as a special case also allows the quantification of an interaction of physiological and environmental factors. According to this plant–environment interaction suggested conceptually decades ago, rather than being unambiguous, the concept of “non-growth-promoting low air temperature” depends on the dormancy status of the plant. We parameterized the model with experimental results of growth onset for seven boreal plant species and found that based on the strength of the interaction, the species can be classified into three dormancy types, only one of which represents the traditional dichotomy. We also tested the model with four species in an independent experiment. Our study suggests that interaction of environmental and physiological factors may be involved in many such phenomena that have until now been considered simply as plant traits without any considerations of effects of the environmental factors.},
pages = {40--54},
number = {1},
journaltitle = {Plant, Cell \& Environment},
author = {Lundell, Robin and Hänninen, Heikki and Saarinen, Timo and Åström, Helena and Zhang, Rui},
urldate = {2020-07-09},
date = {2020-01},
langid = {english},
file = {pce.13650.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/5J5IENRI/pce.13650.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{kwon_chilling_2020,
title = {Chilling and heat requirement of peach cultivars and changes in chilling accumulation spectrums based on 100-year records in Republic of Korea},
volume = {288-289},
issn = {0168-1923},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192320301118},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108009},
abstract = {Chilling and heat requirements of peach cultivars and spectrums of chilling accumulation over the last 100 years (1919–2018) were evaluated to determine phenological characteristics for dormancy break in Republic of Korea. Chilling requirement was calculated by using Chill Hours, Utah, Dynamic, North Carolina, and Low Chilling models and heat requirement was estimated in growing degree hours ({GDH}). Chilling requirement of 15 cultivars ranged between 263 and 2123 chill hour ({CH}), 377 and 1134 chill unit ({CU}), and 21.3 and 74.8 chilling portion ({CP}). The Dynamic model showed the highest precision with the smallest variation among years, followed by the Utah model. Heat requirement ranged from 4824 to 5506 {GDH} and was positively correlated with flowering date. During last 100 years, the initiation date of chilling accumulation had been delayed for 10–12 days in Chill Hours and Utah models. In contrast, the Dynamic model showed no significant changes in chilling accumulation spectrum. Although the chill accumulation was enough to fulfill the chilling requirement so far in Republic of Korea, reduced chills were monitored from 100-year data. Therefore, continuous monitoring or estimation of chilling accumulation in the future is needed.},
pages = {108009},
journaltitle = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
shortjournal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
author = {Kwon, Jung-Hyun and Nam, Eun-Young and Yun, Seok-Kyu and Kim, Sung-Jong and Song, Seung-Yeob and Lee, Ju-Hyun and Hwang, Ki-dong},
urldate = {2020-07-09},
date = {2020-07-15},
langid = {english},
keywords = {Bloom date, Deciduous fruit species, Dormancy, Global warming, Temperate climate}
}
@article{hanninen_experiments_2018,
title = {Experiments Are Necessary in Process-Based Tree Phenology Modelling},
issn = {1360-1385},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1360138518302681},
doi = {10.1016/j.tplants.2018.11.006},
abstract = {In boreal and temperate trees, air temperature is a major environmental factor regulating the timing of spring phenological events, such as vegetative bud burst, through underlying physiological processes. This has been established by experimental research, and mathematical process-based tree phenology models have been developed based on the results. The models have often been applied when assessing the effects of climate change. Currently, there is an increasing trend to develop process-based tree phenology models using only observational phenological records from natural conditions. We point out that this method runs a high risk of producing models that do not simulate the real physiological processes in the trees and discuss experimental designs facilitating the development of biologically realistic process-based models for tree spring phenology.},
journaltitle = {Trends in Plant Science},
shortjournal = {Trends in Plant Science},
author = {Hänninen, Heikki and Kramer, Koen and Tanino, Karen and Zhang, Rui and Wu, Jiasheng and Fu, Yongshuo H.},
urldate = {2019-01-28},
date = {2018-12-07},
keywords = {bud burst, climate change, dormancy, phenology, process-based modelling},
file = {Haenninen_etal_2018_TrendsPlantSci.pdf:/home/katja/Zotero/storage/3JKSEX2X/Haenninen_etal_2018_TrendsPlantSci.pdf:application/pdf}
}
@article{Egea:2020,
author = {Egea, Jose A and Egea, José and Ruiz, David},
title = "{Reducing the uncertainty on chilling requirements for endodormancy breaking of temperate fruits by data-based parameter estimation of the dynamic model: a test case in apricot}",
journal = {Tree Physiology},
year = {2020},
month = {04},
abstract = "{The Dynamic model has been described as one of the most accurate models to quantify chill accumulation based on hourly temperatures in nuts and temperate fruits. This model considers that a dynamic process occurs at a biochemical level that determines the endodormancy breaking through the accumulation of the so-called portions. The kinetic parameters present in the model should reflect how the fruit trees integrate chilling exposure and thus they should be characteristic for each species. However, the original parameter values, reported in the late 1980s, are still being used. Even if the use of such parameter values is useful to compare among chilling requirements (CRs) for different species or cultivars, it is not the optimal choice when one intends to explain the CR variations in different years for a given cultivar. In this work we propose a data-based model calibration that makes use of phenological data for different apricot cultivars within different years to obtain model parameters, which minimize the variations among years and that have, at the same time, physical meaning to characterize the incumbent species. Results reveal that the estimation not only reduces the accumulated portion dispersion within the considered time periods but also allows to improve the CR predictions for subsequent years. We propose a set of model parameter values to predict endodormancy breaking dates in the apricot cultivars studied here. }",
issn = {1758-4469},
doi = {10.1093/treephys/tpaa054},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpaa054},
note = {tpaa054},
eprint = {https://academic.oup.com/treephys/article-pdf/doi/10.1093/treephys/tpaa054/33416460/tpaa054.pdf},
}
@Book{gps:2006,
author = {Carl Edward Rasmussen and Christopher K. I. Williams},
title = {Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning},
publisher = {The MIT Press},
year = {2006}
}
@Article{kernlab:2004,
title = {kernlab -- An {S4} Package for Kernel Methods in {R}},
author = {Alexandros Karatzoglou and Alex Smola and Kurt Hornik and Achim Zeileis},
journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
year = {2004},
volume = {11},
number = {9},
pages = {1--20},
url = {http://www.jstatsoft.org/v11/i09/},
}
@article{campoy2011dormancy,
title={Dormancy in temperate fruit trees in a global warming context: a review},
author={Campoy, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Ruiz, D and Egea, J},
journal={Scientia Horticulturae},
volume={130},
number={2},
pages={357--372},
year={2011},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{vegis1964dormancy,
title={Dormancy in higher plants},
author={Vegis, Anseklis},
journal={Annual review of plant physiology},
volume={15},
number={1},
pages={185--224},
year={1964},
publisher={Annual Reviews 4139 El Camino Way, PO Box 10139, Palo Alto, CA 94303-0139, USA}
}
@article{heide2005low,
title={Low temperature, but not photoperiod, controls growth cessation and dormancy induction and release in apple and pear},
author={Heide, OM and Prestrud, AK},
journal={Tree physiology},
volume={25},
number={1},
pages={109--114},
year={2005},
publisher={Heron Publishing}
}
@article{samish1954dormancy,
title={Dormancy in woody plants},
author={Samish, RM},
journal={Annual Review of Plant Physiology},
volume={5},
number={1},
pages={183--204},
year={1954},
publisher={Annual Reviews 4139 El Camino Way, PO Box 10139, Palo Alto, CA 94303-0139, USA}
}
@article{luedeling2012climate,
title={Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: a review},
author={Luedeling, Eike},
journal={Scientia Horticulturae},
volume={144},
pages={218--229},
year={2012},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{knight1801xv,
title={XV. Account of some experiments on the ascent of the sap in trees. In a letter from Thomas Andrew Knight, Esq. to the Right Hon. Sir Joseph Banks, Bart. KBPR S},
author={Knight, Thomas Andrew},
journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London},
number={91},
pages={333--353},
year={1801},
publisher={The Royal Society London}
}
@article{fadon2015flower,
title={Flower development in sweet cherry framed in the BBCH scale},
author={Fad{\'o}n, E and Herrero, M and Rodrigo, J},
journal={Scientia Horticulturae},
volume={192},
pages={141--147},
year={2015},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{luedeling2009validation,
title={Validation of winter chill models using historic records of walnut phenology},
author={Luedeling, Eike and Zhang, Minghua and McGranahan, Gale and Leslie, Charles},
journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
volume={149},
number={11},
pages={1854--1864},
year={2009},
doi={10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.06.013},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@Article{fishman:1987a,
author = {Fishman, S. and Erez, A. and Couvillon, G. A.},
title = {The Temperature Dependence of Dormancy Breaking in Plants: Mathematical Analysis of a Two-step Model involving a cooperative Transition},
journal = {J. theor. Biol.},
year = {1987},
volume = {124},
pages = {473-483}
}
@Article{fishman:1987b,
author = {Fishman, S. and Erez, A. and Couvillon, G. A.},
title = {The Temperature Dependence of Dormancy Breaking in Plants: Computer Simulation of Processes studied under Controlled Temperatures},
journal = {J. theor. Biol.},
year = {1987},
volume = {126},
pages = {309-321}
}
@Article{Anderson:1986,
author = {Anderson, J. L. and Kesner, C. D. and Richardson, E.A.},
title = {Validation of chill unit and flower bud phenology models for 'montmorency' sour cherry},
year = {1986},
journal = {Acta Horticulturae},
volume = {184},
pages = {71-78}
}
@Article{GenSA:2013,
title = {Generalized Simulated Annealing for Efficient Global Optimization: the {GenSA} Package for {R}.},
author = {{Yang Xiang} and Sylvain Gubian and Brian Suomela and Julia Hoeng},
journal = {The R Journal Volume 5/1, June 2013},
year = {2013},
url = {https://journal.r-project.org/archive/2013/RJ-2013-002/index.html},
}
@ARTICLE{Tsallis:1996a,
author = {{Tsallis}, Constantino and {Stariolo}, Daniel A.},
title = "{Generalized simulated annealing}",
journal = {Physica {A} Statistical Mechanics and its Applications},
keywords = {Condensed Matter},
year = 1996,
month = Feb,
volume = {233},
pages = {395-406},
doi = {10.1016/S0378-4371(96)00271-3},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
eprint = {cond-mat/9501047},
primaryClass = {cond-mat},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/\#abs/1996PhyA..233..395T},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
@article{Asse:2020107931,
title = "Process-based models outcompete correlative models in projecting spring phenology of trees in a future warmer climate",
journal = "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology",
volume = "285-286",
pages = "107931",
year = "2020",
issn = "0168-1923",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107931",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192320300332",
author = "Daphné Asse and Christophe F. Randin and Marc Bonhomme and Anne Delestrade and Isabelle Chuine",
keywords = "Budburst, Elevation gradients, Alps, citizen science, Endodormancy release, Climate change impact",
abstract = "Many phenology models have been developed to explain historical trends in plant phenology and to forecast future ones. Two main types of model can be distinguished: correlative models, that statistically relate descriptors of climate to the date of occurrence of a phenological event, and process-based models that build upon explicit causal relationships determined experimentally. While process-based models are believed to provide more robust projections in novel conditions, it is still unclear whether this assertion always holds true and why. In addition, the efficiency and robustness of the two model categories have rarely been compared. Here we aimed at comparing the efficiency and the robustness of correlative and process-based phenology models with contrasting levels of complexity in both historical and future climatic conditions. Models were calibrated, validated and compared using budburst dates of five tree species across the French Alps collected during 8 years by a citizen-science program. Process-based models were less efficient, yet more robust than correlative models, even when their parameter estimates relied entirely on inverse modeling, i.e. parameter values estimated using observed budburst dates and optimization algorithms. Their robustness further slightly increased when their parameter estimates relied on forward estimation, i.e. parameter values measured experimentally. Our results therefore suggest that the robustness of process-based models comes both from the fact that they describe causal relationships and the fact that their parameters can be directly measured. Process-based models projected a reduction in the phenological cline along the elevation gradient for all species by the end of the 21st century. This was due to a delaying effect of winter warming at low elevation where conditions will move away from optimal chilling conditions that break bud dormancy vs an advancing effect of spring warming at high elevation where optimal chilling conditions for dormancy release will persist even under the most pessimistic emissions scenario RCP 8.5. These results advocate for increasing efforts in developing process-based phenology models as well as forward modelling, in order to provide accurate projections in future climatic conditions."
}
@article{Chiune:2000337,
title = "A Unified Model for Budburst of Trees",
journal = "Journal of Theoretical Biology",
volume = "207",
number = "3",
pages = "337 - 347",
year = "2000",
issn = "0022-5193",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.2000.2178",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519300921787",
author = "Isabelle Chuine",
abstract = "Accurate plant phenology (seasonal plant activity driven by environmental factors) models are vital tools for ecosystem simulation models and for predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change. Since the early 1970s, efforts have concentrated on predicting phenology of the temperate and boreal forests because they represent one-third of the carbon captured in plant ecosystems and they are the principal ecosystems with seasonal patterns of growth on Earth (one-fifth of the plant ecosystems area). Numerous phenological models have been developed to predict the growth timing of temperate or boreal trees. They are in general empirical, nonlinear and non-nested. For these reasons they are particularly difficult to fit, to test and to compare with each other. The methodological difficulties as well as the diversity of models used have greatly slowed down their improvement. The aim of this study was to show that the most widely used models simulating vegetative or reproductive phenology of trees are particular cases of a more general model. This unified model has three main advantages. First, it allows for a direct estimation of (i) the response of bud growth to either chilling or forcing temperatures and (ii) the periods when these temperatures affect the bud growth. Second, it can be simplified according to standard statistical tests for any particular species. Third, it provides a standardized framework for phenological models, which is essential for comparative studies as well as for robust model identification."
}
@article{harrington2010modeling,
title={Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir},
author={Harrington, Constance A and Gould, Peter J and Clair, J Bradley St},
journal={Forest Ecology and Management},
volume={259},
number={4},
pages={798--808},
year={2010},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{pope2014biologically,
title={A biologically based approach to modeling spring phenology in temperate deciduous trees},
author={Pope, KS and Da Silva, David and Brown, PH and DeJong, TM},
journal={Agricultural and forest meteorology},
volume={198},
pages={15--23},
year={2014},
doi={10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.07.009},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{heide2008interaction,
title={Interaction of photoperiod and temperature in the control of growth and dormancy of Prunus species},
author={Heide, Ola M},
journal={Scientia Horticulturae},
volume={115},
number={3},
pages={309--314},
year={2008},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{darbyshire2017global,
title={A global evaluation of apple flowering phenology models for climate adaptation},
author={Darbyshire, Rebecca and Farrera, Isabelle and Martinez-L{\"u}scher, Johann and Leite, Gabriel Berenhauser and Mathieu, Vincent and El Yaacoubi, Adnane and Legave, Jean-Michel},
journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
volume={240},
pages={67--77},
year={2017},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{fadon2020conceptual,
title={A conceptual framework for winter dormancy in deciduous trees},
author={Fad{\'o}n, Erica and Fernandez, Eduardo and Behn, Helen and Luedeling, Eike},
journal={Agronomy},
volume={10},
number={2},
pages={241},
year={2020},
doi={10.3390/agronomy10020241},
publisher={Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute}
}
@article{fernandez_importance_2020,
title = {The importance of chill model selection — a multi-site analysis},
volume = {119},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1161030120301106},
doi = {10.1016/j.eja.2020.126103},
journal = {European Journal of Agronomy},
author = {Eduardo Fernandez and Cory Whitney and Eike Luedeling},
month = {sep},
year = {2020},
pages = {126103},
note = {Last visited on 06/10/2020},
}
@inproceedings{weinberger1950chilling,
title={Chilling requirements of peach varieties.},
author={Weinberger, J Hm and others},
booktitle={Proceedings. American Society for Horticultural Science},
volume={56},
pages={122--8},
year={1950}
}
@inproceedings{hutchins_title_1932,
title = {unpublished paper},
author = {Hutchins, Lee Milo},
booktitle={Meeting of the American Society for Horticultural Science},
year = {1932}
}
@article{campoy2011seasonal,
title={Seasonal progression of bud dormancy in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) in a Mediterranean climate: a single-node cutting approach},
author={Campoy, JA and Ruiz, D and Egea, J},
journal={Plant Biosystems-An International Journal Dealing with all Aspects of Plant Biology},
volume={145},
number={3},
pages={596--605},
year={2011},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@article{luedeling2013differential,
title={Differential responses of trees to temperature variation during the chilling and forcing phases},
author={Luedeling, Eike and Guo, Liang and Dai, Junhu and Leslie, Charles and Blanke, Michael M},
journal={Agricultural and forest meteorology},
volume={181},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.06.018},
pages={33--42},
year={2013},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{luedeling2012partial,
title={Partial least squares regression for analyzing walnut phenology in California},
author={Luedeling, Eike and Gassner, Anja},
journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
volume={158},
pages={43--52},
year={2012},
doi={10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.020},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{zhang2011dynamic,
title={The dynamic model provides the best description of the chill process on ‘Sirora’pistachio trees in Australia},
author={Zhang, Jianlu and Taylor, Cathy},
journal={HortScience},
volume={46},
number={3},
pages={420--425},
year={2011},
publisher={American Society for Horticultural Science}
}
@article{ruiz2007chilling,
title={Chilling and heat requirements of apricot cultivars for flowering},
author={Ruiz, David and Campoy, Jose Antonio and Egea, Jos{\'e}},
journal={Environmental and Experimental Botany},
volume={61},
number={3},
pages={254--263},
year={2007},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{glozer2006102,
title={(102) The Dynamic Model and Rest-breaking Agents in CaliforniaFrench'Prune Production},
author={Glozer, Kitren and Niederholzer, Franz J},
journal={Hortscience},
volume={41},
number={4},
pages={1031A--1031},
year={2006},
publisher={American Society for Horticultural Science}
}
@article{erez_dynamic_1990,
title = {The dynamic model for rest completion in peach buds},
volume = {276},
journal = {Acta Horticulturae},
author = {Erez, A. and Fishman, S. and Linsley-Noakes, G. C. and Allan, P.},
year = {1990},
pages = {165--174}
}
}
@article{diez2019blooming,
title={Blooming under Mediterranean Climate: Estimating Cultivar-Specific Chill and Heat Requirements of Almond and Apple Trees Using a Statistical Approach},
author={D{\'\i}ez-Palet, Isabel and Funes, Inmaculada and Sav{\'e}, Robert and Biel, Carmen and de Herralde, Felicidad and Miarnau, Xavier and Vargas, Francisco and {\`A}vila, Gl{\`o}ria and Carb{\'o}, Joaquim and Aranda, Xavier},
journal={Agronomy},
volume={9},
number={11},
pages={760},
year={2019},
publisher={Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute}
}
@article{el2019response,
title={Response of almond flowering and dormancy to Mediterranean temperature conditions in the context of adaptation to climate variations},
author={El Yaacoubi, Adnane and Oukabli, Ahmed and Legave, Jean-Michel and Ainane, Tarik and Mouhajir, Abdelmounaim and Zouhair, Rachid and Hafidi, Majida},
journal={Scientia Horticulturae},
volume={257},
pages={108687},
year={2019},
publisher={Elsevier}
}
@article{egea2020reducing,
title={Reducing the uncertainty on chilling requirements for endodormancy breaking of temperate fruits by data-based parameter estimation of the Dynamic model: a test case in apricot},
author={Egea, Jose A and Egea, Jos{\'e} and Ruiz, David},
journal={Tree Physiology},
year={2020}
}
@article{lang1987endo,
title={Endo-, para-, and ecodormancy: physiological terminology and classification for dormancy research},
author={Lang, GA and Early, JD and Martin, GC and Darnell, RL},
journal={HortScience},
volume={22},
number={3},
pages={371--377},
year={1987}
}
@article{okie2011increasing,
title={Increasing chilling reduces heat requirement for floral budbreak in peach},
author={Okie, William R and Blackburn, Bryan},
journal={HortScience},
volume={46},
number={2},
pages={245--252},
year={2011},
publisher={American Society for Horticultural Science}
}
@article{richardson1975pheno,
title={Pheno-climatography of spring peach bud development},
author={Richardson, EA},
journal={HortScience},
volume={10},
pages={236--237},
year={1975}
}
@article{frenguelli1998use,
title={The use of the pheno-climatic model for forecasting the pollination of some arboreal taxa},
author={Frenguelli, Giuseppe and Bricchi, Emma},
journal={Aerobiologia},
volume={14},
number={1},
pages={39--44},
year={1998},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{hoffmann2013future,
title={Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties},
author={Hoffmann, Holger and Rath, Thomas},
journal={PLoS One},
volume={8},
number={10},
pages={e75033},
year={2013},
publisher={Public Library of Science}
}
@article{chuine2016can,
title={Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break},
author={Chuine, Isabelle and Bonhomme, Marc and Legave, Jean-Michel and Garc{\'\i}a de Cort{\'a}zar-Atauri, I{\~n}aki and Charrier, Guillaume and Lacointe, Andr{\'e} and Am{\'e}glio, Thierry},
journal={Global Change Biology},
volume={22},
number={10},
pages={3444--3460},
year={2016},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{chung2011predicting,
title={Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and mid-Atlantic states in response to climate change},
author={Chung, Uran and Mack, Liz and Yun, Jin I and Kim, Soo-Hyung},
journal={PloS one},
volume={6},
number={11},
year={2011},
publisher={Public Library of Science}
}
@article{juknys2016response,
title={Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania},
author={Juknys, Romualdas and Kanapickas, Arvydas and {\v{S}}veikauskait{\.e}, Irma and Sujetovien{\.e}, Gintar{\.e}},
journal={International journal of biometeorology},
volume={60},
number={10},
pages={1589--1602},
year={2016},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{meier_phanologische_1994,
title = {Ph{\"a}nologische {Entwicklungsstadien} des {Kernobstes} ({Malus} domestica {Bork}. und {Pyrus} communis {L}.), des {Steinobstes} ({Prunus}-{Arten}), der {Johannisbeere} ({Ribes}-{Arten}) und der {Erdbeere} ({Fragaria} x ananassa {Duch}.)},
volume = {46},
journal = {Nachrichtenblatt des Deutschen Pflanzenschutzdienstes},
author = {Meier, U. and Graf, H. and Hack, H. and Heß, M. and Kennel, W. and Klose, R. and Mappes, D. and Seipp, D. and Stauß, R. and Streif, J. and van den Boom, T.},
year = {1994},
pages = {141--153},
file = {Meier_et_al_BBCH_1994.pdf:C\:\\Users\\EL\\Zotero\\storage\\7IFTGA5E\\Meier_et_al_BBCH_1994.pdf:application/pdf}