This project involves a comprehensive statistical analysis of the stock performance of three major companies—Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple—compared to the S&P 500 index. The analysis covers descriptive statistics, price trends, moving averages, correlations with the S&P 500, regression analyses, and trading volumes from 2018 to 2023. The goal is to derive actionable investment insights and understand the behaviour of these stocks relative to the broader market.
- Descriptive Statistics: Detailed statistical overview of Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, and S&P 500 stocks, highlighting key metrics such as mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis.
- Stock Performance Analysis: Examination of price trends, trading volumes, and intraday price changes for each company over the five-year period.
- Moving Average Analysis: Comparison of 50-day moving averages with adjusted closing prices to identify trends and potential buy/sell signals.
- Regression Analysis: Linear regression models to assess the relationship between each stock and the S&P 500 index, providing insights into market sensitivity and volatility.
- Comparative Analysis: A side-by-side comparison of Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple’s stock performance and their correlation with the broader market.
The dataset, obtained from Yahoo Finance, includes daily stock values of Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, and the S&P 500 index from 2018 to 2023. Key variables include:
- Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Adjusted Close prices
- Percentage change in stock prices
- Trading Volume
- Microsoft: Exhibits robust growth with moderate volatility, reflecting strong company performance.
- Tesla: Shows the highest volatility and sensitivity to market changes, offering high-risk, high-reward opportunities.
- Apple: Demonstrates consistent growth with the least volatility among the three, making it a stable investment choice.
- S&P 500: Reflects overall market growth with less dramatic peaks compared to individual stocks, indicating its broad market representation.
- All three stocks are positively correlated with the S&P 500 index, indicating they generally move in the same direction as the broader market.
- Microsoft and Apple are suitable for more conservative investors, offering predictable performance with strong correlations to the market.
- Tesla is ideal for risk-tolerant investors, displaying higher sensitivity and potential for higher returns during bullish markets.
- Moving averages and regression models provide valuable insights for identifying long-term trends and making informed investment decisions.
- Investment Strategy: Balance portfolios by combining high-volatility stocks like Tesla with more stable options like Microsoft and Apple to manage risk and maximize returns.
- Market Monitoring: Regularly track market indices like the S&P 500 to anticipate broader market movements and adjust investments accordingly.
- Further Analysis: Incorporate additional technical indicators and market factors for a more comprehensive investment strategy.
- Microsoft Excel: For data analysis, statistical calculations, and visualization.
- Yahoo Finance: Source for historical stock prices and financial data.