README.md

Cliodynamics

Work and code associated with looking at some research by Turchin et al

• Turchin's website: https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/
• Journal : http://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics

Preprint

Turchin, P., Korotayev, A., 2020. The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment [WWW Document]. URL osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/7ahqn

• Preprint : https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/7ahqn/
• Supplementary : https://osf.io/7ymnw/ License CC-By Attribution 4.0 International

Data Sources

• Cross National Time Series - https://www.cntsdata.com/
• Production Workers - https://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/uswage/

Plot from Paper Data

USA Political Stress Indicator prediction [data up to 2011]

Australian Reseach

Australian Political Stress Indicator prediction [data up to 2011 - see notebook]

Australia

Aim to replicate this from Australian Data Sources

• ABS
• ausmacrostrat.org : http://ausmacrodata.org/categories.php
• others

Approach

Find repos of people that have done the hard work of data mining government websites

Need Data

• Production Wage - use Fitter Wage from FWC
• Unskilled Wage - use Minimum Wage from FWC
• GDP per capital: ausmacrodata Real GDP and ausmacrodata Estimated Resident Population - use
• Urbanization - World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=AU - ABS census has this and can interpolate between for a good approximation
• Percent of population aged 20-29: ausmacrodata employed 20-24 and ausmacrodata employed 25-34 - ABS has breakdowns of 20-24 and 25-29 so can add them
• National Debt scaled by GDP: ausmacrodata Current Account and ausmacrodata Real GDP - see economic history
• Distrust [percent responding negatively to the government]
  • https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/link.aspx?_id=1713CA0133C845D8B54945046F5C7B8B
  • https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/Trends-in-Australian-Political-Opinion-1987-2019.pdf
  • https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.26193/231VJS&version=2.0
    • https://australianelectionstudy.org/interactive-charts/

Higher Education

• https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-statistics/student-data/selected-higher-education-statistics-time-series-data
• https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-statistics/student-data/selected-higher-education-statistics-2013-student-data
• Higher Education Students by Gender and Broad Field of Study, 1983-2000 ...

References

Minimum Wage

• https://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/auswages/auswagesources.php
• https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/assets/documents/hilda-bibliography/other-publications/2013/Bray_Reflections_on_Evolution_of_Minimum_Wage.pdf
• https://www.fwc.gov.au/waltzing-matilda-and-the-sunshine-harvester-factory/historical-material/australian-minimum-wage-since-1906
• https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1819/Quick_Guides/Earnings

Economic History

• https://github.com/MattCowgill/auseconhist
• https://rse.anu.edu.au/research/centre-economic-history/source-papers-economic-history
• https://github.com/MattCowgill/auseconhist
• https://rse.anu.edu.au/research/centre-economic-history/source-papers-economic-history

Distrust

• https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataverse.xhtml?alias=australian-voter-study
• data from each 3 year election cycle only