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CBO June 2024 baseline update #446

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CBO June 2024 baseline update #446

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62a3d6c
update baseline files
Aug 16, 2024
27ebe87
adjustment for report
Aug 20, 2024
86db500
add report
Aug 20, 2024
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34 changes: 17 additions & 17 deletions cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -4,21 +4,21 @@ Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59
HH,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22854626,22821510,23221112,23585391,23903307,24185899,24470699,24744460,25022636,25303020,25585612,25872620,26161835,26455466,26751304,27049351,27354020,27658689,27969982,28281275
SS_return,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,31684352,32736570,33818929,34953351,36139836,37386604,38614191,39891101,41154310,42384637,43664287,44875433,46007115,47097695,48141692,49089784,49843325,50509181,51128455,51758690
Dep_return,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,99911398,100735190,101549290,102373082,103187182,104001282,104805690,105610099,106414507,107209224,107984557,108759890,109525532,110281482,111018049,111744924,112452416,113150216,113828632,114487666
INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143545768,146829495,146407301,147423693,155851925,161152798,187688437,206390043,228281554,245200565,259414411,269015402,280789908,293643353,307325547,318959322,329498521
DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,401130545,421201081,463481652,494147800,519032208,589253614,607337472,627255187,644269296,657411931,676208956,702570637,730460531,759190943,788812813,819300670,850603574
SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,485895257,491852335,503691560,536549154,552846820,564386318,591174436,617887623,645837184,672587837,698626637,725002631,752053011,780452163,810687144,843245011,876364867
SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77467361,78425945,80308673,85549315,88149545,89986353,94251191,98516028,102970287,107235125,111385162,115592599,119909097,124437976,129253856,134448577,139723659
CGNS,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,1249696525,1110880523,1505896298,1631599158,1522675479,1983609468,3582355270,2279853674,2417823667,2270900077,2235790697,2184818645,2186369662,2221620044,2278866663,2350072434,2430795807,2518569257,2611700765,2709062319
Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1069779122,1093456192,1156992981,1219534934,1278031226,1337787642,1397212446,1458626920,1521102551,1586827977,1654941006,1725839572,1798329875,1872743525
SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1348629314,1385360103,1322308403,1621317337,1711451646,1881479653,1909154695,1962219682,2005382591,2054977620,2118791018,2192845028,2260551551,2331050969,2411198566,2493885158,2582834603
SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,212774811,218567895,208634508,255797226,270021168,296849659,301206993,309587767,316399232,324229078,334279328,345982360,356650316,367785726,380423665,393462278,407502577
INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143545768,146829495,146407301,134695343,144655980,157571972,186343673,218664926,236553418,245826037,258570024,270985638,285793682,302009037,318928048,334471022,352265693
DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,401130545,421201081,463481652,543865676,577588252,589126263,615335122,646154092,670529096,689962876,711663506,739247758,768283813,798109444,828750122,860205848,892654912
SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,485895257,491852335,503691560,528568917,538722176,565510295,595108356,618936668,647223422,673936609,698813967,724065983,750104784,777417425,806490963,838149649,870819914
SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77467361,78425945,80308673,84275029,85893716,90164294,94882593,98682489,103194148,107453246,111419602,115449099,119599136,123950074,128588013,133633494,138839696
CGNS,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,1249696525,1110880523,1505896298,1631599158,1522675479,1983609468,3582355270,2158874365,2349155924,2472250256,2396038931,2300439897,2274143112,2291627301,2339708822,2406543545,2485363398,2572290839,2665140344,2763136404
Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1075416519,1097236565,1154340088,1228952704,1302172553,1362127935,1418103979,1477993039,1540534993,1605995129,1673776546,1744476146,1817430705,1894629893
SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1348629314,1385360103,1322308403,1710012883,1877332629,1906192534,2004874792,2074612511,2104995814,2145281195,2173717935,2218319607,2285772231,2362703769,2447590822,2533493474,2622273653
SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,212774811,218567895,208634508,269787441,296198563,300739540,316315758,327317610,332109008,338469714,342960607,349989104,360640365,372777461,386166665,399722816,413729726
SS,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,709246515,726500323,755946821,795975655,848657280,898463271,939067232,1016191751,1138003633,1234049828,1311634449,1389794197,1470139428,1555315724,1643310143,1733317505,1824417609,1916150353,2012484111,2113648936
UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,10193061,7633144,10209705,11790928,12207039,12762963,13318888,13928075,14537262,15093186,15565889,16008631,16481333
wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147839507,154870229,157088051,170920853,185370987,196128564,205571452,215128661,224468661,233637180,243022908,252808758,262914707,273260729,283789663,294478647,305339112
wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338812769,354925502,360008217,391709690,424825940,449479730,471120571,493023407,514428451,535440502,556950344,579377172,602537587,626248193,650377992,674874585,699764171
wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493044939,516492406,523888842,570021256,618212472,654089002,685581047,717454351,748603262,779180283,810481698,843117521,876820872,911324867,946438878,982086653,1018306316
wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541291719,567033631,575153844,625800532,678707487,718094705,752668395,787660653,821857632,855426759,889791166,925620559,962621941,1000502316,1039052399,1078188477,1117952406
wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541048906,566779271,574895841,625519811,678403032,717772582,752330763,787307324,821488963,855043032,889392023,925205344,962190129,1000053511,1038586301,1077704823,1117450915
wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185371609,1241743674,1259526081,1370436973,1486297606,1572551448,1648264173,1724893516,1799781283,1873294122,1948548536,2027011117,2108040231,2190994245,2275414849,2361118720,2448197519
wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087039738,1138735488,1155042766,1256753103,1363002580,1442101280,1511533295,1581805892,1650481385,1717896005,1786907730,1858861489,1933168876,2009241484,2086659022,2165253373,2245108597
wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5133013315,5566972838,5890039223,6173623532,6460641064,6741135471,7016480042,7298347739,7592231719,7895728728,8206435506,8522635444,8843641895,9169798182
UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,10193061,7633144,9600518,10486003,11458039,12456706,13288928,13928075,14454040,14953373,15426075,15868818,16341520
wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147839507,154870229,157088051,171298111,184639335,196277181,207274830,216752015,225726189,234517449,243583079,253037400,262731794,272666261,282829370,293255416,304070153
wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338812769,354925502,360008217,392574276,423149168,449820325,475024306,496743745,517310403,537457868,558234123,579901163,602118394,624885815,648177228,672071231,696856019
wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493044939,516492406,523888842,571279413,615772411,654584640,691261815,722868238,752797118,782115982,812349870,843880041,876210856,909342317,943236297,978007175,1014074335
wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541291719,567033631,575153844,627181806,676028654,718638843,758905053,793604314,826461876,858649731,891842147,926457694,961952233,998325764,1035536430,1073709802,1113306305
wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541048906,566779271,574895841,626900465,675725401,718316476,758564624,793248319,826091142,858264558,891442085,926042104,961520721,997877935,1035071910,1073228158,1112806898
wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185371609,1241743674,1259526081,1373461815,1480431245,1573743053,1661921795,1737909505,1809864091,1880352087,1953039969,2028844355,2106573641,2186227827,2267715250,2351310897,2438023049
wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087039738,1138735488,1155042766,1259527021,1357622859,1443194036,1524057957,1593742147,1659727779,1724368481,1791026578,1860542652,1931823946,2004870461,2079598139,2156259153,2235778144
wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5144342954,5545000204,5894502414,6224778570,6509392846,6778900936,7042915867,7315170537,7599098168,7890235569,8188582741,8493796362,8806906397,9131689395
Binary file modified cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz
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12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md
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Expand Up @@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the
To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the
specific variables.

Previous Document: February 2023
Previous Document: February 2024

Current Document: February 2024
Current Document: June 2024

| Variable | Name In CBO Document |
|----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
Expand All @@ -70,9 +70,9 @@ Current Document: February 2024

Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#7)

Previous: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51138-2024-02-Revenue.xlsx)
Previous: [June 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx)

Current: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51138-2024-02-Revenue.xlsx)
Current: [June 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx)

In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations`
tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ column of this table.
Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)

Series ID: CUSR0000SAM
Access Date:
Access Date: August 16 2024

Manual Instructions:

Expand All @@ -126,7 +126,7 @@ Source: [CBO Unemployment Compensation projections](https://www.cbo.gov/about/pr

Previous: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51316-2024-02-unemployment.xlsx)

Current: [February 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-02/51316-2024-02-unemployment.xlsx)
Current: [June 2024](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51316-2024-06-unemployment.xlsx)

Note: Change the `Total Benefits` number from the table to be in terms of
billions rather than millions of dollars
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion history/report_utils.py
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Expand Up @@ -763,7 +763,7 @@ def validation_table(df_tax_data, df_cbo, category):
new_df = new_df.set_index("Year").round(1)
new_df = new_df.rename_axis(index=None).squeeze()
new_df.index = new_df.index.astype(str)
df_cbo = df_cbo.drop(columns=["2019", "2022"], axis=1, inplace=False)
df_cbo = df_cbo.drop(columns=["2022"], axis=1, inplace=False)
df_cbo = df_cbo.transpose()
df_cbo_sal = df_cbo.loc[:, df_cbo.columns.str.contains(category)].squeeze()
df_cbo_sal = df_cbo_sal.astype(float)
Expand Down
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26 changes: 13 additions & 13 deletions puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv
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@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034
GDP,14718.6,14418.7,14964.4,15517.9,16163.2,16800.0,17348.1,18036.7,18624.5,19479.6,20527.2,21372.6,21060.5,23315.1,25419.5,27340.9,28418.0,29564.9,30812.7,32074.8,33371.4,34714.2,36094.5,37515.9,38979.4,40487.6,42036.7
TPY,12429.6,12087.5,12429.3,13202.0,13887.7,14166.9,14694.2,15458.5,15928.7,16850.2,17706.0,18424.4,19832.3,21294.8,21766.7,23030.5,24275.3,25439.7,26630.3,27812.2,29035.1,30278.7,31587.2,32943.3,34353.8,35797.6,37278.7
Wages,6531.9,6251.4,6377.5,6633.2,6932.1,7124.7,7477.8,7854.8,8085.3,8474.7,8900.5,9323.5,9457.4,10290.1,11160.2,11807.6,12375.8,12951.6,13513.9,14066.1,14630.7,15220.3,15828.2,16451.1,17085.4,17728.3,18382.3
SCHC,979.5,937.5,986.7,1068.1,1187.9,1253.5,1268.5,1336.8,1298.7,1466.4,1541.5,1560.5,1598.0,1702.3,1754.0,1790.6,1875.5,1960.3,2049.0,2133.8,2216.4,2300.1,2386.0,2476.1,2572.0,2675.3,2780.3
SCHF,47.0,35.5,46.0,75.5,72.3,83.2,78.1,40.0,43.2,39.5,38.9,38.4,45.2,51.3,90.1,59.3,53.5,51.9,51.6,51.9,52.6,53.5,54.4,55.3,56.2,57.0,57.8
INTS,1361.6,1264.3,1195.0,1231.6,1255.9,1255.2,1302.0,1302.8,1415.3,1553.4,1615.0,1652.0,1647.3,1658.6,1753.4,1813.1,2111.7,2322.0,2568.3,2758.7,2918.7,3026.6,3159.1,3303.7,3457.7,3588.5,3707.1
DIVS,805.4,553.7,544.6,682.2,832.7,824.5,815.5,951.1,962.5,1154.5,1253.3,1316.0,1448.1,1543.9,1621.6,1841.0,1897.5,1959.8,2012.9,2054.0,2112.7,2195.1,2282.2,2372.0,2464.5,2559.8,2657.6
RENTS,262.1,333.7,402.8,485.3,533.0,595.8,610.8,659.6,707.4,652.7,681.9,692.1,719.9,723.8,783.4,961.1,959.8,947.4,940.9,965.1,1010.0,1061.5,1114.7,1164.8,1210.8,1257.7,1305.8
CGNS,498.0,263.0,394.0,404.0,647.0,511.0,716.0,725.0,641.0,871.3,944.0,881.0,1147.7,2072.7,1319.1,1398.9,1313.9,1293.6,1264.1,1265.0,1285.4,1318.5,1359.7,1406.4,1457.2,1511.1,1567.4
BOOK,1285.1,1397.0,1746.4,1816.6,2022.8,2106.9,2072.9,2088.1,2073.5,2128.9,2305.0,2367.8,2260.1,2771.1,2925.1,3215.7,3263.0,3353.8,3427.5,3512.3,3621.3,3748.0,3863.6,3984.2,4121.1,4262.4,4414.5
GDP,14718.6,14418.7,14964.4,15517.9,16163.2,16800.0,17348.1,18036.7,18624.5,19479.6,20527.2,21372.6,21060.5,23594.1,25744.1,27360.9,28792.1,30009.4,31131.7,32252.3,33413.8,34666.9,35990.0,37367.4,38791.9,40262.4,41783.2
TPY,12429.6,12087.5,12429.3,13202.0,13887.7,14166.9,14694.2,15458.5,15928.7,16850.2,17706.0,18424.4,19832.3,21407.7,21840.8,22978.4,24463.4,25921.3,27113.7,28228.4,29420.5,30665.6,31968.6,33317.5,34725.8,36176.8,37714.3
Wages,6531.9,6251.4,6377.5,6633.2,6932.1,7124.7,7477.8,7854.8,8085.3,8474.7,8900.5,9323.5,9457.4,10312.6,11116.0,11816.3,12478.4,13049.0,13589.3,14119.1,14664.4,15233.4,15817.1,16415.2,17027.1,17655.1,18305.9
SCHC,979.5,937.5,986.7,1068.1,1187.9,1253.5,1268.5,1336.8,1298.7,1466.4,1541.5,1560.5,1598.0,1676.9,1709.2,1794.1,1888.0,1963.6,2053.4,2138.1,2217.1,2297.2,2379.8,2466.4,2558.7,2659.1,2762.7
SCHF,47.0,35.5,46.0,75.5,72.3,83.2,78.1,40.0,43.2,39.5,38.9,38.4,45.2,72.3,81.8,54.3,38.7,41.8,44.0,45.9,47.7,49.4,50.9,52.3,53.6,54.7,55.8
INTS,1361.6,1264.3,1195.0,1231.6,1255.9,1255.2,1302.0,1302.8,1415.3,1553.4,1615.0,1652.0,1647.3,1515.5,1627.5,1772.8,2096.6,2460.1,2661.4,2765.8,2909.2,3048.8,3215.4,3397.9,3588.3,3763.1,3963.3
DIVS,805.4,553.7,544.6,682.2,832.7,824.5,815.5,951.1,962.5,1154.5,1253.3,1316.0,1448.1,1699.2,1804.6,1840.6,1922.5,2018.8,2095.0,2155.7,2223.5,2309.7,2400.4,2493.6,2589.3,2687.6,2789.0
RENTS,262.1,333.7,402.8,485.3,533.0,595.8,610.8,659.6,707.4,652.7,681.9,692.1,719.9,814.2,878.3,967.4,1033.3,1051.3,1079.0,1106.6,1136.7,1169.4,1199.5,1228.9,1261.8,1300.0,1343.8
CGNS,498.0,263.0,394.0,404.0,647.0,511.0,716.0,725.0,641.0,871.3,944.0,881.0,1147.7,2072.7,1249.1,1359.2,1430.4,1386.3,1331.0,1315.8,1325.9,1353.7,1392.4,1438.0,1488.3,1542.0,1598.7
BOOK,1285.1,1397.0,1746.4,1816.6,2022.8,2106.9,2072.9,2088.1,2073.5,2128.9,2305.0,2367.8,2260.1,2922.7,3208.7,3258.0,3426.7,3545.9,3597.8,3666.7,3715.3,3791.5,3906.8,4038.3,4183.3,4330.2,4481.9
RETS,142.5,140.5,142.9,145.4,144.9,146.6,148.3,147.8,149.7,149.9,152.5,153.5,160.1,164.4,163.2,165.2,167.1,168.7,170.3,171.9,173.6,175.3,177.0,178.6,180.4,182.1,183.8
SOCSEC,503.0,544.5,572.5,591.5,627.2,663.2,698.2,733.7,762.1,791.1,833.0,888.1,940.2,982.7,1063.4,1190.9,1291.4,1372.6,1454.4,1538.5,1627.6,1719.7,1813.9,1909.2,2005.2,2106.0,2211.9
CPIU,215.3,214.5,218.1,224.9,229.6,233.0,236.7,237.0,240.0,245.1,251.1,255.6,258.8,271.0,292.9,304.7,312.6,320.4,327.9,335.1,342.4,350.0,357.8,365.8,374.1,382.5,391.1
CPIM,364.1,375.6,388.4,400.3,414.9,425.1,435.3,446.8,463.7,475.3,484.7,498.4,518.9,525.3,546.5,549.1,556.8,533.8,541.3,548.5,555.8,563.4,571.2,579.2,587.5,595.9,604.5
UCOMP,51.1,131.2,138.9,107.2,83.6,62.2,43.8,39.9,31.2,31.1,28.7,27.0,27.925,240.656,36.743,27.511,36.8,42.5,44.0,46.0,48.0,50.2,52.4,54.4,56.1,57.7,59.4
CPIU,215.3,214.5,218.1,224.9,229.6,233.0,236.7,237.0,240.0,245.1,251.1,255.6,258.8,271.0,292.6,304.7,314.4,322.1,329.3,336.4,343.7,351.2,359.1,367.1,375.3,383.7,392.4
CPIM,364.1,375.6,388.4,400.3,414.9,425.1,435.3,446.8,463.7,475.3,484.7,498.4,518.9,525.3,546.5,549.1,561.4,535.7,542.9,550.0,557.3,564.8,572.7,580.7,588.9,597.3,606.0
UCOMP,51.1,131.2,138.9,107.2,83.6,62.2,43.8,39.9,31.2,31.1,28.7,27.0,27.925,240.656,36.743,27.511,34.6,37.8,41.3,44.9,47.9,50.2,52.1,53.9,55.6,57.2,58.9
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