Merge pull request #412 from bodiyang/master

CBO baseline update
PSLmodels · Aug 6, 2022 · b76d900 · b76d900
2 parents c949e40 + 8b9bcec
commit b76d900
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Showing 21 changed files with 174 additions and 157 deletions.
diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage1.py b/cps_stage1/stage1.py
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 
 def main(syr=2014):
     SYR = str(syr)  # Start year of CPS
-    EYR = 2031  # Last year in our extrapolation
+    EYR = 2032  # Last year in our extrapolation
 
     # Read in state SOI estimates
     soi_estimates = pd.read_csv(

diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv b/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
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diff --git a/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz b/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz
diff --git a/cps_stage2/solver.jl b/cps_stage2/solver.jl
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol)
 
 end
 
-year_list = [x for x in 2014:2031]
+year_list = [x for x in 2014:2032]
 tol = 0.70
 
 # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order)

diff --git a/cps_stage2/stage2.py b/cps_stage2/stage2.py
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
 STAGE_1_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "puf_stage1", "Stage_I_factors.csv")
 STAGE_2_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "cps_stage1", "stage_2_targets.csv")
 START_YEAR = 2014
-END_YEAR = 2031
+END_YEAR = 2032
 
 # Read hashes used to see which years can be skipped
 with open(Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "datahashes.json")) as f:
@@ -62,12 +62,15 @@ def main():
     # write .npz input files for solver
     skipped_years = []
     for year in range(START_YEAR, END_YEAR + 1):
-        factor_match = _factors[year].equals(CUR_FACTORS[year])
-        target_match = stage_2_targets[f"{year}"].equals(CUR_TARGETS[f"{year}"])
-        if files_match and factor_match and target_match:
-            print(f"Skipping {year}")
-            skipped_years.append(year)
-            continue
+        try:
+            factor_match = _factors[year].equals(CUR_FACTORS[year])
+            target_match = stage_2_targets[f"{year}"].equals(CUR_TARGETS[f"{year}"])
+            if files_match and factor_match and target_match:
+                print(f"Skipping {year}")
+                skipped_years.append(year)
+                continue
+        except KeyError:
+            pass
         dataprep(cps, stage_1_factors, stage_2_targets, year)
 
     # Solver (in Julia)

diff --git a/docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md b/docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md
@@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the
 To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the 
 specific variables.
 
-Previous Document: July 2020
+Previous Document: February 2021
 
-Current Document: February 2021
+Current Document: May 2022
 
 | Variable | Name In CBO Document                                |
 |----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
@@ -70,9 +70,9 @@ Current Document: February 2021
 
 Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#7)
 
-Previous: [January 2020](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-01/51138-2020-01-revenue-projections.xlsx)
+Previous: [February 2021](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/51138-2021-02-11-revenueprojections.xlsx)
 
-Current: [February 2021](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-02/51138-2021-02-11-revenueprojections.xlsx)
+Current: [May 2022](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-05/51138-2022-05-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
 
 In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations`
 tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
@@ -81,9 +81,9 @@ tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
 
 Source: [IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projections-of-federal-tax-return-filings)
 
-Previous: [Fall 2019 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/19projpub6187tables.xls)
+Previous: [Fall 2020 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/20projpub6187tables.xls)
 
-Current: [Fall 2020 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/20projpub6187tables.xls)
+Current: [Fall 2021 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/21projpub6187tables.xls)
 
 The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the
 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the
@@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ column of this table.
 Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
 
 Series ID: CUSR0000SAM
-Access Date: June 16 2021
+Access Date: June 27 2022
 
 Manual Instructions:
 
@@ -124,9 +124,9 @@ Manual Instructions:
 
 Source: [CBO Unemployment Compensation projections](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#24)
 
-Previous: [January 2020](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-01/51316-2020-01-unemployment.pdf)
+Previous: [March 2020](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-03/51316-2020-03-unemployment.pdf)
 
-Current: [March 2020](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-03/51316-2020-03-unemployment.pdf)
+Current: [May 2022](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-05/51316-2022-05-unemployment.xlsx)
 
 Note: Change the `Total Benefits` number from the table to be in terms of
 billions rather than millions of dollars

diff --git a/history/reports/taxdata_report_2022-07-25.pdf b/history/reports/taxdata_report_2022-07-25.pdf
diff --git a/history/reports/taxdata_report_2022-08-02.pdf b/history/reports/taxdata_report_2022-08-02.pdf
diff --git a/puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv b/puf_stage1/CBO_baseline.csv
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
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