4. Método para estimar los factores del voto.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "8deb2bb7",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Lectura de datos y ajustes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 105,
   "id": "da04e5a7",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Leer librerías \n",
    "\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 131,
   "id": "08d42ae8",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos por elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>% de electores</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de personas</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos proporcionales</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>Nulos</td>\n",
       "      <td>91.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.640638</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>Blancos</td>\n",
       "      <td>122.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.243493</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ausentes</td>\n",
       "      <td>140.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.754828</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1001</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13907</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>83</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13908</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>84</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13909</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>85</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13910</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>87</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13911</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>198.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.066543</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>13912 rows × 6 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "      PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos por elección política  \\\n",
       "0               210752             Nulos                         91.0   \n",
       "1               210752           Blancos                        122.0   \n",
       "2               210752          Ausentes                        140.0   \n",
       "3               210752                10                          0.0   \n",
       "4               210752              1001                          0.0   \n",
       "...                ...               ...                          ...   \n",
       "13907           190750                83                          0.0   \n",
       "13908           190750                84                          0.0   \n",
       "13909           190750                85                          0.0   \n",
       "13910           190750                87                          0.0   \n",
       "13911           190750                 9                        198.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       % de electores  Número de personas  Votos proporcionales  \n",
       "0            7.640638                  17                     1  \n",
       "1           10.243493                  17                     1  \n",
       "2           11.754828                  17                     1  \n",
       "3            0.000000                  17                     0  \n",
       "4            0.000000                  17                     0  \n",
       "...               ...                 ...                   ...  \n",
       "13907        0.000000                  46                     0  \n",
       "13908        0.000000                  46                     0  \n",
       "13909        0.000000                  46                     0  \n",
       "13910        0.000000                  46                     0  \n",
       "13911        4.066543                  46                     1  \n",
       "\n",
       "[13912 rows x 6 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 131,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Cargar las bases y ajustar el tipo de datos\n",
    "\n",
    "muestra = pd.read_csv('Data/muestra.csv')\n",
    "votesper = pd.read_csv('Data/muestreo2_ajustado.csv')\n",
    "votesper = votesper.astype({'PARROQUIA_CODIGO': str})\n",
    "votesper"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "e2545c4f",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Aseguramos el tipo de dato:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 107,
   "id": "01df97ed",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "{'Identificador de persona': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Identificador de hogar': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'Area': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Sexo': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Edad': dtype('float64'),\n",
       " 'Seguro Social - Alternativa 1': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Seguro Social - Alternativa 2': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Estado civil': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Nivel de instrucción': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Nivel de instrucción.1': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Cómo se considera': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Condición de inactividad': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Categoría de ocupación': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Cuántos años trabaja': dtype('float64'),\n",
       " 'Condición de actividad': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Ingreso Laboral': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Grupo de Ocupación CIUO8 (población ocupada de 15 años y más)': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Rama de Actividad CIIU4 (población ocupada de 15 años y más)': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Ingreso per cápita': dtype('float64'),\n",
       " 'Pobreza': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Extrema Pobreza': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Forma de tenencia de la vivienda': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Con relación al mes anterior, la situación económica de su hogar es:': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Cómo cree usted que será la situación económica de su hogar dentro de los próximos 3 meses:': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Planea usted o algún miembro del hogar adquirir un vehículo en los próximos 3 meses': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Planea usted o algún miembro del hogar adquirir un inmueble (casa, departamento, pieza) en los próximos 3 meses': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Usted o algún miembro del hogar tiene planes de endeudamiento en los próximos 3 meses (bancos, financieras, etc.)': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Con relación al mes anterior, la situación económica del país es:': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Usted considera que durante los próximos 3 meses la situación económica del país será:': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'En los 3 meses anteriores, considera que la situación en Ecuador para encontrar/mejorar un puesto de trabajo es:': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Considera usted que la situación en Ecuador para encontrar/mejorar un puesto de trabajo dentro de 3 meses será:': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Género del jefe/a de hogar': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Cónyuge': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'Hijo o Hija': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'Parientes': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'No parientes': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'Empleado(a) doméstico(a)': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'Tipology': dtype('O'),\n",
       " 'Ciudad': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'Número de mujeres en el hogar': dtype('int64'),\n",
       " 'Número de personas del hogar': dtype('int64')}"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 107,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Revisamos el tipo de datos por columna \n",
    "\n",
    "dict(muestra.dtypes)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 108,
   "id": "e6e7c063",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Creamos un diccionario para modificar el tipo de datos según deseemos\n",
    "\n",
    "NEW = {'Identificador de persona': str,\n",
    "       'Identificador de hogar': str,\n",
    "       'Area': str,\n",
    "       'Sexo': str,\n",
    "       'Edad': float,\n",
    "       'Seguro Social - Alternativa 1': str,\n",
    "       'Seguro Social - Alternativa 2': str,\n",
    "       'Estado civil': str,\n",
    "       'Nivel de instrucción': str,\n",
    "       'Nivel de instrucción.1': str,\n",
    "       'Cómo se considera': str,\n",
    "       'Condición de inactividad': str,\n",
    "       'Categoría de ocupación': str,\n",
    "       'Cuántos años trabaja': float,\n",
    "       'Condición de actividad': str,\n",
    "       'Ingreso Laboral': str,\n",
    "       'Grupo de Ocupación CIUO8 (población ocupada de 15 años y más)': str,\n",
    "       'Rama de Actividad CIIU4 (población ocupada de 15 años y más)': str,\n",
    "       'Ingreso per cápita': float,\n",
    "       'Pobreza': str,\n",
    "       'Extrema Pobreza': str,\n",
    "       'Forma de tenencia de la vivienda': str,\n",
    "       'Con relación al mes anterior, la situación económica de su hogar es:': str,\n",
    "       'Cómo cree usted que será la situación económica de su hogar dentro de los próximos 3 meses:': str,\n",
    "       'Planea usted o algún miembro del hogar adquirir un vehículo en los próximos 3 meses': str,\n",
    "       'Planea usted o algún miembro del hogar adquirir un inmueble (casa, departamento, pieza) en los próximos 3 meses': str,\n",
    "       'Usted o algún miembro del hogar tiene planes de endeudamiento en los próximos 3 meses (bancos, financieras, etc.)': str,\n",
    "       'Con relación al mes anterior, la situación económica del país es:': str,\n",
    "       'Usted considera que durante los próximos 3 meses la situación económica del país será:': str,\n",
    "       'En los 3 meses anteriores, considera que la situación en Ecuador para encontrar/mejorar un puesto de trabajo es:': str,\n",
    "       'Considera usted que la situación en Ecuador para encontrar/mejorar un puesto de trabajo dentro de 3 meses será:': str,\n",
    "       'Género del jefe/a de hogar': str,\n",
    "       'Cónyuge': int,\n",
    "       'Hijo o Hija': int,\n",
    "       'Parientes': int,\n",
    "       'No parientes': int,\n",
    "       'Empleado(a) doméstico(a)': int,\n",
    "       'Tipology': str,\n",
    "       'Ciudad': str,\n",
    "       'Número de mujeres en el hogar': int,\n",
    "       'Número de personas del hogar': int}\n",
    "\n",
    "muestra = muestra.astype(NEW)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 109,
   "id": "0bdce072",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Index(['PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 'Elección política', 'Votos por elección política',\n",
       "       '% de electores', 'Número de personas', 'Votos proporcionales'],\n",
       "      dtype='object')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 109,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "votesper.columns"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "abb72f9c",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Un problema emergente\n",
    "Hay un problema en cuanto a nuestro método. Vamos a ilustrarlos antes de expresarlo con jerga ténica y de forma precisa. Observemos a continuación los resultados reales para una ciduad en las elecciones del 2020:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 110,
   "id": "0a0b64fe",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
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       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos por elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>% de electores</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de personas</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos proporcionales</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1030</td>\n",
       "      <td>355.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>29.806885</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>55</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>206.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>17.296390</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ausentes</td>\n",
       "      <td>140.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.754828</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>Blancos</td>\n",
       "      <td>122.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.243493</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>Nulos</td>\n",
       "      <td>91.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.640638</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1045</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>30</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1043</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>29</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1042</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1040</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>93</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>94 rows × 6 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos por elección política  \\\n",
       "21           210752              1030                        355.0   \n",
       "55           210752                 2                        206.0   \n",
       "2            210752          Ausentes                        140.0   \n",
       "1            210752           Blancos                        122.0   \n",
       "0            210752             Nulos                         91.0   \n",
       "..              ...               ...                          ...   \n",
       "31           210752              1045                          0.0   \n",
       "30           210752              1043                          0.0   \n",
       "29           210752              1042                          0.0   \n",
       "28           210752              1040                          0.0   \n",
       "93           210752                 9                          0.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    % de electores  Número de personas  Votos proporcionales  \n",
       "21       29.806885                  17                     5  \n",
       "55       17.296390                  17                     2  \n",
       "2        11.754828                  17                     1  \n",
       "1        10.243493                  17                     1  \n",
       "0         7.640638                  17                     1  \n",
       "..             ...                 ...                   ...  \n",
       "31        0.000000                  17                     0  \n",
       "30        0.000000                  17                     0  \n",
       "29        0.000000                  17                     0  \n",
       "28        0.000000                  17                     0  \n",
       "93        0.000000                  17                     0  \n",
       "\n",
       "[94 rows x 6 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 110,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "votesper[votesper['PARROQUIA_CODIGO'] == '210752'].sort_values(by='% de electores', ascending=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "f110f53c",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "En la ciudad 80352, 653 personas votaron por la organización política (op) 47; 213 personas estuvieron ausentes; 118 obtaron por el blanco; 108, por la op 9; etc.\n",
    "En nuestro método de estimación, relativizamos este número de elecciones de forma proporcional. Es decir, esos 653 votos para la op 47 son 49,97% del total de votos de la ciudad (suma de votos de todos los votos para cada elección política). Esos 49,97% votos para unoa muestra de 10 personas son 4 votos. \n",
    "## El problema\n",
    "Este inconveniente surge de muestras muy pequeñas. Por ejemplo, para la misma ciudad 210752 cuando el % de electores es muy pequeño (como un 2,68% para el caso de la op 1004) los votos proporcionales de la muestra serán 0. Pero pasa lo mismo para la op 1031, 1046, 24, etc. Aquí está el problema. No es posible distuinguir elecciones electorales en una muestra como la de esta ciudad."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "881cb892",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "<center><b>% de electores demasiado pequeño y asignación del voto</b></center>"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 111,
   "id": "05d0fffb",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos por elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>% de electores</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de personas</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos proporcionales</th>\n",
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       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1004</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.686818</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1031</td>\n",
       "      <td>21.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.763224</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>32</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1046</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.839631</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>57</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.503778</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>60</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.091520</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>66</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>42</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.679261</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>67</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>44</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.854744</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>74</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>61</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.755668</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>83</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.862301</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>85</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>78</td>\n",
       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.343409</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos por elección política  \\\n",
       "6            210752              1004                         32.0   \n",
       "22           210752              1031                         21.0   \n",
       "32           210752              1046                         10.0   \n",
       "57           210752                24                          6.0   \n",
       "60           210752                29                         13.0   \n",
       "66           210752                42                         20.0   \n",
       "67           210752                44                         34.0   \n",
       "74           210752                61                          9.0   \n",
       "83           210752                75                         46.0   \n",
       "85           210752                78                         16.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    % de electores  Número de personas  Votos proporcionales  \n",
       "6         2.686818                  17                     0  \n",
       "22        1.763224                  17                     0  \n",
       "32        0.839631                  17                     0  \n",
       "57        0.503778                  17                     0  \n",
       "60        1.091520                  17                     0  \n",
       "66        1.679261                  17                     0  \n",
       "67        2.854744                  17                     0  \n",
       "74        0.755668                  17                     0  \n",
       "83        3.862301                  17                     0  \n",
       "85        1.343409                  17                     0  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 111,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "votesper.loc[( (votesper['PARROQUIA_CODIGO'] == '210752') & (votesper['% de electores'] < 5) & (votesper['% de electores'] != 0)), ]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "222ef0bb",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Al ser imposible distinguir la elección política con muestras tan pequeñas será mejor descartar estos casos. Esta es una elección adecuada debido a que nuestro método consirtirá en asignar aleatoriamente una elección política para una persona de la muestra del ENEMDU. Para ganar claridad describámoslo. <br>"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "86f8ad7f",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Asiganación proporcinal de voto"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 112,
   "id": "fe0f32e1",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Elección política</th>\n",
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       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
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       "      <td>17</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1030</td>\n",
       "      <td>355.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>29.806885</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>55</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>206.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>17.296390</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos por elección política  \\\n",
       "0            210752             Nulos                         91.0   \n",
       "1            210752           Blancos                        122.0   \n",
       "2            210752          Ausentes                        140.0   \n",
       "21           210752              1030                        355.0   \n",
       "55           210752                 2                        206.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    % de electores  Número de personas  Votos proporcionales  \n",
       "0         7.640638                  17                     1  \n",
       "1        10.243493                  17                     1  \n",
       "2        11.754828                  17                     1  \n",
       "21       29.806885                  17                     5  \n",
       "55       17.296390                  17                     2  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 112,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "votesper.loc[( (votesper['PARROQUIA_CODIGO'] == '210752') & (votesper['Votos proporcionales'] != 0) ), ]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "078e5fff",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "En la misma ciudad hay 1 elección política que asiganar a una de esas 17 personas de la muestra que sea Nulos. Es decir, suponer que una persona optó por el Nulo y tomar su información en cuenta para estudiar los factores (variables de la muestra obtenida del ENEMDU) asociados a esa decisión de ausentarse. Luego hay que suponer que 2 votó blanco y hacer lo mismo. Y así sucesivamente. Hay 10 personas de 17 a las que asignarles una elección política."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "4f10021f",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "El resto de personas (7) serán eliminadas de la base, pues será más peligroso estudiar sus factores asignando algún tipo de elección. Es decir, si, por ejemplo, para la ciudad 210752 elegimos una persona y suponemos que voto por la lista 1004, que se ve en la tabla **% de electores demasiado pequeño y asignación del voto**, para la que el porcentaje de Elección política es 2,68%, con 0 votos asignados, sus factores podrían ser los mismo o diferentes de una a la que asignaramos la op 1031 on un % de electores de 1,76%. Así, será mejor depurar 7 personas de la base para la simulación. En código sería lo siguiente:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "6979a258",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "<center><b>Base depurada</b></center>"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 113,
   "id": "a7930919",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos por elección política</th>\n",
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       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
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       "      <td>122.0</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2</th>\n",
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       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1030</td>\n",
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       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13839</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>1030</td>\n",
       "      <td>403.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.276854</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13840</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>1031</td>\n",
       "      <td>599.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.302321</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13872</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>175.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.594167</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13901</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>167.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.429862</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13911</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>198.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.066543</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "</table>\n",
       "<p>1037 rows × 6 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "      PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos por elección política  \\\n",
       "0               210752             Nulos                         91.0   \n",
       "1               210752           Blancos                        122.0   \n",
       "2               210752          Ausentes                        140.0   \n",
       "21              210752              1030                        355.0   \n",
       "55              210752                 2                        206.0   \n",
       "...                ...               ...                          ...   \n",
       "13839           190750              1030                        403.0   \n",
       "13840           190750              1031                        599.0   \n",
       "13872           190750                18                        175.0   \n",
       "13901           190750                75                        167.0   \n",
       "13911           190750                 9                        198.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       % de electores  Número de personas  Votos proporcionales  \n",
       "0            7.640638                  17                     1  \n",
       "1           10.243493                  17                     1  \n",
       "2           11.754828                  17                     1  \n",
       "21          29.806885                  17                     5  \n",
       "55          17.296390                  17                     2  \n",
       "...               ...                 ...                   ...  \n",
       "13839        8.276854                  46                     3  \n",
       "13840       12.302321                  46                     5  \n",
       "13872        3.594167                  46                     1  \n",
       "13901        3.429862                  46                     1  \n",
       "13911        4.066543                  46                     1  \n",
       "\n",
       "[1037 rows x 6 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 113,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "votesper[votesper['Votos proporcionales'] != 0]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "ac57b261",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Base para la simulación"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "bc023cd2",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Bueno, llegados a este punto vamos a usar solo 3 columnas: Ciudad, Elección electoral y Votos para la muestra."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 114,
   "id": "b4938937",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13901</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13911</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>1037 rows × 3 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "      PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos proporcionales\n",
       "0               210752             Nulos                     1\n",
       "1               210752           Blancos                     1\n",
       "2               210752          Ausentes                     1\n",
       "21              210752              1030                     5\n",
       "55              210752                 2                     2\n",
       "...                ...               ...                   ...\n",
       "13839           190750              1030                     3\n",
       "13840           190750              1031                     5\n",
       "13872           190750                18                     1\n",
       "13901           190750                75                     1\n",
       "13911           190750                 9                     1\n",
       "\n",
       "[1037 rows x 3 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 114,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "v = votesper[votesper['Votos proporcionales'] != 0][['PARROQUIA_CODIGO', \n",
    "                                                     'Elección política', \n",
    "                                                     'Votos proporcionales']]\n",
    "v"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 115,
   "id": "649a0fe9",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
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       "  <tbody>\n",
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       "      <td>100254</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>100453</td>\n",
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       "      <th>143</th>\n",
       "      <td>230157</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>144</th>\n",
       "      <td>240152</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>145</th>\n",
       "      <td>240156</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>146</th>\n",
       "      <td>240250</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>147</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
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       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>148 rows × 2 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "    PARROQUIA_CODIGO  Número de personas\n",
       "0             100152                   6\n",
       "1             100157                  10\n",
       "2             100250                   8\n",
       "3             100254                   7\n",
       "4             100453                   5\n",
       "..               ...                 ...\n",
       "143           230157                   6\n",
       "144           240152                  11\n",
       "145           240156                  10\n",
       "146           240250                  12\n",
       "147           240350                   9\n",
       "\n",
       "[148 rows x 2 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 115,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "v = v.groupby(by=['PARROQUIA_CODIGO']).size().reset_index(name='Número de personas')\n",
    "v"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "29f4aa61",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Para seleccionar muestras de tamañao n, vamos a inspirarnos en el código de la respuesta 5 del siguiente *stackoverflow* https://stackoverflow.com/questions/22472213/python-random-selection-per-group."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "6cfb2770",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Como ejemplo seleccionemos una sola persona por cada ciudad:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 116,
   "id": "df65b698",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Identificador de persona</th>\n",
       "      <th>Identificador de hogar</th>\n",
       "      <th>Area</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sexo</th>\n",
       "      <th>Edad</th>\n",
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       "      <th>Tipology</th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de mujeres en el hogar</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de personas del hogar</th>\n",
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       "  </thead>\n",
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       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
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       "      <td>10015290090200504103</td>\n",
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       "      <td>19.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
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       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 5</td>\n",
       "      <td>100153</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
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       "      <td>10015790080100505105</td>\n",
       "      <td>100157900801005051</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>16.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>IESS, seguro general</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Educación Básica</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 16</td>\n",
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       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>10025000080300901102</td>\n",
       "      <td>100250000803009011</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>43.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Unión libre</td>\n",
       "      <td>Primaria</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
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       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
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       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 10</td>\n",
       "      <td>92150</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>362</th>\n",
       "      <td>09225090020200505108</td>\n",
       "      <td>92250900202005051</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Unión libre</td>\n",
       "      <td>Secundaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Media/Bachillerato</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 16</td>\n",
       "      <td>92250</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>363</th>\n",
       "      <td>09225190120200502102</td>\n",
       "      <td>92251901202005021</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
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       "      <td>75.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Secundaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Media/Bachillerato</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 11</td>\n",
       "      <td>92251</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>364</th>\n",
       "      <td>09235000050200502101</td>\n",
       "      <td>92350000502005021</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>IESS, seguro general</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Secundaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Media/Bachillerato</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 16</td>\n",
       "      <td>92350</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>365</th>\n",
       "      <td>09275000070200901102</td>\n",
       "      <td>92750000702009011</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Unión libre</td>\n",
       "      <td>Superior Universitario</td>\n",
       "      <td>Superior</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 10</td>\n",
       "      <td>92750</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>366 rows × 41 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "    Identificador de persona Identificador de hogar     Area     Sexo  Edad  \\\n",
       "0       10015000550200902101     100150005502009021   Urbana    Mujer  36.0   \n",
       "1       10015290090200504103     100152900902005041    Rural   Hombre  19.0   \n",
       "2       10015300020100901102     100153000201009011    Rural   Hombre  52.0   \n",
       "3       10015790080100505105     100157900801005051    Rural    Mujer  16.0   \n",
       "4       10025000080300901102     100250000803009011   Urbana   Hombre  43.0   \n",
       "..                       ...                    ...      ...      ...   ...   \n",
       "361     09215000510100907101      92150005101009071   Urbana   Hombre  52.0   \n",
       "362     09225090020200505108      92250900202005051    Rural   Hombre  28.0   \n",
       "363     09225190120200502102      92251901202005021    Rural    Mujer  75.0   \n",
       "364     09235000050200502101      92350000502005021   Urbana   Hombre  48.0   \n",
       "365     09275000070200901102      92750000702009011   Urbana    Mujer  34.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    Seguro Social - Alternativa 1 Seguro Social - Alternativa 2  \\\n",
       "0                         Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "1                         Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "2                         Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "3            IESS, seguro general                       Ninguno   \n",
       "4                         Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "..                            ...                           ...   \n",
       "361                       Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "362                       Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "363                       Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "364          IESS, seguro general                       Ninguno   \n",
       "365                       Ninguno                       Ninguno   \n",
       "\n",
       "       Estado civil     Nivel de instrucción        Nivel de instrucción.1  \\\n",
       "0     Divorciado(a)                 Primaria              Educación Básica   \n",
       "1        Soltero(a)         Educación  Media  Educación Media/Bachillerato   \n",
       "2       Separado(a)                 Primaria              Educación Básica   \n",
       "3        Soltero(a)         Educación Básica              Educación Básica   \n",
       "4       Unión libre                 Primaria              Educación Básica   \n",
       "..              ...                      ...                           ...   \n",
       "361     Unión libre                 Primaria              Educación Básica   \n",
       "362     Unión libre               Secundaria  Educación Media/Bachillerato   \n",
       "363       Casado(a)               Secundaria  Educación Media/Bachillerato   \n",
       "364       Casado(a)               Secundaria  Educación Media/Bachillerato   \n",
       "365     Unión libre   Superior Universitario                      Superior   \n",
       "\n",
       "     ... Género del jefe/a de hogar Cónyuge Hijo o Hija  Parientes  \\\n",
       "0    ...                      Mujer       0           3          0   \n",
       "1    ...                     Hombre       1           2          1   \n",
       "2    ...                      Mujer       0           1          0   \n",
       "3    ...                     Hombre       1           4          2   \n",
       "4    ...                      Mujer       1           1          2   \n",
       "..   ...                        ...     ...         ...        ...   \n",
       "361  ...                     Hombre       1           1          0   \n",
       "362  ...                     Hombre       1           5          3   \n",
       "363  ...                     Hombre       1           0          0   \n",
       "364  ...                     Hombre       1           3          1   \n",
       "365  ...                     Hombre       1           3          0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    No parientes Empleado(a) doméstico(a)       Tipology PARROQUIA_CODIGO  \\\n",
       "0              0                        0   Hogar tipo 5           100150   \n",
       "1              1                        0  Hogar tipo 16           100152   \n",
       "2              0                        0   Hogar tipo 5           100153   \n",
       "3              1                        0  Hogar tipo 16           100157   \n",
       "4              2                        0  Hogar tipo 16           100250   \n",
       "..           ...                      ...            ...              ...   \n",
       "361            1                        0  Hogar tipo 10            92150   \n",
       "362            1                        0  Hogar tipo 16            92250   \n",
       "363            1                        0  Hogar tipo 11            92251   \n",
       "364            1                        0  Hogar tipo 16            92350   \n",
       "365            1                        0  Hogar tipo 10            92750   \n",
       "\n",
       "     Número de mujeres en el hogar Número de personas del hogar  \n",
       "0                                2                            4  \n",
       "1                                3                            5  \n",
       "2                                1                            2  \n",
       "3                                4                            8  \n",
       "4                                2                            6  \n",
       "..                             ...                          ...  \n",
       "361                              2                            3  \n",
       "362                              6                           10  \n",
       "363                              1                            2  \n",
       "364                              4                            6  \n",
       "365                              3                            5  \n",
       "\n",
       "[366 rows x 41 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 116,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Solo un ajuste antes:\n",
    "\n",
    "muestra.rename(columns={'Ciudad': 'PARROQUIA_CODIGO'}, inplace=True)\n",
    "\n",
    "# Seleccionar solo una persona de muestra\n",
    "\n",
    "n = 1\n",
    "muestra.groupby(by=['PARROQUIA_CODIGO']).apply(lambda x: x.sample(min(n,len(x)))).reset_index(drop=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "45a3baf7",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Ahoa especifiquemos el tamaño de la muestra:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "14125d52",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Algortimo para seleccionar submuestras especificadas de tamaño n y obtener una base para la simulación"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "5bed04cf",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Descripcción**: \n",
    "\n",
    "Vamos a filtrar la base *muestra*, obteniendo submuestras para cada ciudad. <br>\n",
    "Lo que deseamos es que en cada ciudad se elija un número de persona especificadas en la columna *Número de personas a seleccionar* de la tabla *v* aleatoriamente (v['Número de personas a seleccionar']). <br>\n",
    "Para cada submuestra de ciudad vamos a elegir un número n de persona aleatoriamente.\n",
    "Vamos a hacer esto 91 veces, ya que hay 91 ciudades. Esta selección significa tomar un número n de personas con  muestra.shape[1] (41) valores de variables.\n",
    "Finalmente, vamos a juntar estas submustras obtenidas de la selección de el número n de personas en una base llamada df_simulation.\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 117,
   "id": "8ee30d37",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
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       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Identificador de persona</th>\n",
       "      <th>Identificador de hogar</th>\n",
       "      <th>Area</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sexo</th>\n",
       "      <th>Edad</th>\n",
       "      <th>Seguro Social - Alternativa 1</th>\n",
       "      <th>Seguro Social - Alternativa 2</th>\n",
       "      <th>Estado civil</th>\n",
       "      <th>Nivel de instrucción</th>\n",
       "      <th>Nivel de instrucción.1</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>Género del jefe/a de hogar</th>\n",
       "      <th>Cónyuge</th>\n",
       "      <th>Hijo o Hija</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parientes</th>\n",
       "      <th>No parientes</th>\n",
       "      <th>Empleado(a) doméstico(a)</th>\n",
       "      <th>Tipology</th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de mujeres en el hogar</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de personas del hogar</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>10015290090200507101</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152900902005071</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>74.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>IESS, seguro general</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Separado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Primaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Básica</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 1</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>10015290090200503101</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152900902005031</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>63.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Primaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Básica</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 11</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>10015290090200504102</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152900902005041</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>40.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Primaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Básica</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 16</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>10015290090200501102</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152900902005011</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>69.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 11</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>10015290090200501101</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152900902005011</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rural</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>76.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 11</td>\n",
       "      <td>100152</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>24035000140600502105</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350001406005021</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Soltero(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Superior Universitario</td>\n",
       "      <td>Superior</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 16</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>24035000140600502103</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350001406005021</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>57.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>IESS, seguro general</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Separado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Superior Universitario</td>\n",
       "      <td>Superior</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 16</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>24035000140600504105</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350001406005041</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Soltero(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Secundaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Media/Bachillerato</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 10</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>24035000140600504101</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350001406005041</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Básica</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Básica</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 10</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>24035000140600501102</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350001406005011</td>\n",
       "      <td>Urbana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mujer</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ninguno</td>\n",
       "      <td>Casado(a)</td>\n",
       "      <td>Secundaria</td>\n",
       "      <td>Educación Media/Bachillerato</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hombre</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hogar tipo 10</td>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>1037 rows × 41 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   Identificador de persona Identificador de hogar     Area     Sexo  Edad  \\\n",
       "0      10015290090200507101     100152900902005071    Rural    Mujer  74.0   \n",
       "1      10015290090200503101     100152900902005031    Rural   Hombre  63.0   \n",
       "2      10015290090200504102     100152900902005041    Rural    Mujer  40.0   \n",
       "3      10015290090200501102     100152900902005011    Rural    Mujer  69.0   \n",
       "4      10015290090200501101     100152900902005011    Rural   Hombre  76.0   \n",
       "..                      ...                    ...      ...      ...   ...   \n",
       "4      24035000140600502105     240350001406005021   Urbana    Mujer  20.0   \n",
       "5      24035000140600502103     240350001406005021   Urbana    Mujer  57.0   \n",
       "6      24035000140600504105     240350001406005041   Urbana   Hombre  27.0   \n",
       "7      24035000140600504101     240350001406005041   Urbana   Hombre  59.0   \n",
       "8      24035000140600501102     240350001406005011   Urbana    Mujer  32.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Seguro Social - Alternativa 1 Seguro Social - Alternativa 2  Estado civil  \\\n",
       "0           IESS, seguro general                       Ninguno   Separado(a)   \n",
       "1                        Ninguno                       Ninguno     Casado(a)   \n",
       "2                        Ninguno                       Ninguno     Casado(a)   \n",
       "3                        Ninguno                       Ninguno     Casado(a)   \n",
       "4                        Ninguno                       Ninguno     Casado(a)   \n",
       "..                           ...                           ...           ...   \n",
       "4                        Ninguno                       Ninguno    Soltero(a)   \n",
       "5           IESS, seguro general                       Ninguno   Separado(a)   \n",
       "6                        Ninguno                       Ninguno    Soltero(a)   \n",
       "7                        Ninguno                       Ninguno     Casado(a)   \n",
       "8                        Ninguno                       Ninguno     Casado(a)   \n",
       "\n",
       "       Nivel de instrucción        Nivel de instrucción.1  ...  \\\n",
       "0                  Primaria              Educación Básica  ...   \n",
       "1                  Primaria              Educación Básica  ...   \n",
       "2                  Primaria              Educación Básica  ...   \n",
       "3                   Ninguno                       Ninguno  ...   \n",
       "4                   Ninguno                       Ninguno  ...   \n",
       "..                      ...                           ...  ...   \n",
       "4    Superior Universitario                      Superior  ...   \n",
       "5    Superior Universitario                      Superior  ...   \n",
       "6                Secundaria  Educación Media/Bachillerato  ...   \n",
       "7          Educación Básica              Educación Básica  ...   \n",
       "8                Secundaria  Educación Media/Bachillerato  ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Género del jefe/a de hogar Cónyuge Hijo o Hija  Parientes No parientes  \\\n",
       "0                       Mujer       0           0          0            0   \n",
       "1                      Hombre       1           0          0            1   \n",
       "2                      Hombre       1           2          1            1   \n",
       "3                      Hombre       1           0          0            1   \n",
       "4                      Hombre       1           0          0            1   \n",
       "..                        ...     ...         ...        ...          ...   \n",
       "4                      Hombre       1           1          2            1   \n",
       "5                      Hombre       1           1          2            1   \n",
       "6                      Hombre       1           4          0            1   \n",
       "7                      Hombre       1           4          0            1   \n",
       "8                      Hombre       1           3          0            1   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Empleado(a) doméstico(a)       Tipology PARROQUIA_CODIGO  \\\n",
       "0                         0   Hogar tipo 1           100152   \n",
       "1                         0  Hogar tipo 11           100152   \n",
       "2                         0  Hogar tipo 16           100152   \n",
       "3                         0  Hogar tipo 11           100152   \n",
       "4                         0  Hogar tipo 11           100152   \n",
       "..                      ...            ...              ...   \n",
       "4                         0  Hogar tipo 16           240350   \n",
       "5                         0  Hogar tipo 16           240350   \n",
       "6                         0  Hogar tipo 10           240350   \n",
       "7                         0  Hogar tipo 10           240350   \n",
       "8                         0  Hogar tipo 10           240350   \n",
       "\n",
       "    Número de mujeres en el hogar Número de personas del hogar  \n",
       "0                               1                            1  \n",
       "1                               1                            2  \n",
       "2                               3                            5  \n",
       "3                               1                            2  \n",
       "4                               1                            2  \n",
       "..                            ...                          ...  \n",
       "4                               4                            5  \n",
       "5                               4                            5  \n",
       "6                               2                            6  \n",
       "7                               2                            6  \n",
       "8                               3                            5  \n",
       "\n",
       "[1037 rows x 41 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 117,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "limit = v.shape[0] # Número indicador de filas apra usar en el bucle\n",
    "Frames = [] # Submuestras a concatenar en una sola base\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(limit):\n",
    "    df_PARROQUIA_CODIGO = muestra[muestra['PARROQUIA_CODIGO'] == v['PARROQUIA_CODIGO'][i]]\n",
    "    select = v['Número de personas'][i]\n",
    "    frame = df_PARROQUIA_CODIGO.groupby(by=['PARROQUIA_CODIGO']).apply(lambda x: x.sample(min(select,len(x)))).reset_index(drop=True)\n",
    "    Frames.append(frame)\n",
    "\n",
    "df_simulation = pd.concat(Frames)\n",
    "df_simulation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "61dfc113",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Será importante verificar que lo que hemos hecho no contenga errores. Para asegurarnos vamos a contar el número de persona que hay en cada submuestra. La siguiente tabla debería ser equivalente a la tabla *v*."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "14a764ce",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "<center><b>Verificación de personas seleccionadas del ENEMDU por parroquia</b></center>"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 118,
   "id": "15d74d75",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Número de personas seleccionadas</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>100152</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
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       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>100157</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>100250</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>100254</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>100453</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
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       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "      <th>143</th>\n",
       "      <td>230157</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>144</th>\n",
       "      <td>240152</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>145</th>\n",
       "      <td>240156</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>146</th>\n",
       "      <td>240250</td>\n",
       "      <td>12</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>147</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>148 rows × 2 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "    PARROQUIA_CODIGO  Número de personas seleccionadas\n",
       "0             100152                                 6\n",
       "1             100157                                10\n",
       "2             100250                                 8\n",
       "3             100254                                 7\n",
       "4             100453                                 5\n",
       "..               ...                               ...\n",
       "143           230157                                 6\n",
       "144           240152                                11\n",
       "145           240156                                10\n",
       "146           240250                                12\n",
       "147           240350                                 9\n",
       "\n",
       "[148 rows x 2 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 118,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_simulation.groupby(by=['PARROQUIA_CODIGO'])['Identificador de persona'].size().reset_index(name='Número de personas seleccionadas')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "6a3d1628",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Una vez verificado podemos proceder a asignar una elección política aleatoriamente a cada persona de una ciudad."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "d5cc5129",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### AAG2"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 119,
   "id": "61960161",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "(1037, 3)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 119,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "r = votesper[votesper['Votos proporcionales'] != 0][['PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 'Elección política', 'Votos proporcionales']]\n",
    "r.shape"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 120,
   "id": "36464919",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>Votos proporcionales</th>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ausentes</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>210752</td>\n",
       "      <td>1030</td>\n",
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       "      <th>...</th>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>1031</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>1031</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>190750</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>3702 rows × 3 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política Votos proporcionales\n",
       "0            210752             Nulos                    1\n",
       "0            210752           Blancos                    1\n",
       "0            210752          Ausentes                    1\n",
       "0            210752              1030                    5\n",
       "1            210752              1030                    5\n",
       "..              ...               ...                  ...\n",
       "3            190750              1031                    5\n",
       "4            190750              1031                    5\n",
       "0            190750                18                    1\n",
       "0            190750                75                    1\n",
       "0            190750                 9                    1\n",
       "\n",
       "[3702 rows x 3 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 120,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "lim = r.shape[0]\n",
    "FRAMES = []\n",
    "\n",
    "for ner in range(lim):\n",
    "    row = r.values[ner] # selecciona la fila para repetir el número de veces indicado\n",
    "    n_repit = r['Votos proporcionales'].values[ner] # selecciona el número de veces indicado\n",
    "    sigma = np.repeat([r.values[ner]], [n_repit], axis=0)\n",
    "    k = pd.DataFrame(sigma) # Creo un DataFrame\n",
    "    FRAMES.append(k) # Agrego el df para concatenarlo luego\n",
    "\n",
    "df_s = pd.concat(FRAMES)\n",
    "df_s.rename(columns={0: 'PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 1: 'Elección política', 2: 'Votos proporcionales'}, inplace=True)\n",
    "df_s"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "7216fecf",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Verifiación\n",
    "Lo que hemos hecho debería haber repetido la elección política el número de veces el número de votos proporcionales, vamos a crear un conteo de esa repetición que llamaremos *n*."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 121,
   "id": "55e74056",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PARROQUIA_CODIGO</th>\n",
       "      <th>Elección política</th>\n",
       "      <th>n</th>\n",
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       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>100152</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1032</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>42</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1033</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>84</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1034</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ausentes</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1035</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Blancos</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1036</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Nulos</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>1037 rows × 3 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "     PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  n\n",
       "0              100152              1030  3\n",
       "1              100152                18  1\n",
       "2              100152                 2  2\n",
       "3              100152          Ausentes  3\n",
       "4              100152           Blancos  2\n",
       "...               ...               ... ..\n",
       "1032           240350                42  1\n",
       "1033           240350                84  3\n",
       "1034           240350          Ausentes  4\n",
       "1035           240350           Blancos  1\n",
       "1036           240350             Nulos  2\n",
       "\n",
       "[1037 rows x 3 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 121,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_s.groupby(by=['PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 'Elección política']).size().reset_index(name='n').sort_values(['PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 'Elección política'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "51d0c6eb",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "*n* deberá ser igual a lso votos proporcionales para cada parroquia y elección política."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 122,
   "id": "0bedc879",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
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       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9866</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
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       "      <td>3</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9778</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ausentes</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9777</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Blancos</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9776</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Nulos</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>1037 rows × 3 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "     PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos proporcionales\n",
       "303            100152              1030                     3\n",
       "336            100152                18                     1\n",
       "337            100152                 2                     2\n",
       "284            100152          Ausentes                     3\n",
       "283            100152           Blancos                     2\n",
       "...               ...               ...                   ...\n",
       "9842           240350                42                     1\n",
       "9866           240350                84                     3\n",
       "9778           240350          Ausentes                     4\n",
       "9777           240350           Blancos                     1\n",
       "9776           240350             Nulos                     2\n",
       "\n",
       "[1037 rows x 3 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 122,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "r.sort_values(['PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 'Elección política'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "8ca4c9f4",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Una vez verificado, procedemos a emparejar las bases:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 123,
   "id": "794e4a93",
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9866</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>84</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9778</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ausentes</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9777</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Blancos</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>19</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9776</th>\n",
       "      <td>240350</td>\n",
       "      <td>Nulos</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>1037 rows × 4 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "     PARROQUIA_CODIGO Elección política  Votos proporcionales  random\n",
       "303            100152              1030                     3       5\n",
       "336            100152                18                     1       6\n",
       "337            100152                 2                     2      12\n",
       "284            100152          Ausentes                     3       9\n",
       "283            100152           Blancos                     2       3\n",
       "...               ...               ...                   ...     ...\n",
       "9842           240350                42                     1      16\n",
       "9866           240350                84                     3       2\n",
       "9778           240350          Ausentes                     4      17\n",
       "9777           240350           Blancos                     1      19\n",
       "9776           240350             Nulos                     2       2\n",
       "\n",
       "[1037 rows x 4 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 123,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "r['random'] = np.random.randint(0, 20, r.shape[0])\n",
    "Ya = r.sort_values(by=['PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 'Elección política', 'random'])\n",
    "Ya"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "91165740",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Finalmente tenemos la muestra para nuestro análisis."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 124,
   "id": "f915272d",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "df_regresion = df_simulation.merge(Ya, on=['PARROQUIA_CODIGO'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 127,
   "id": "df9bf558",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Index(['Identificador de persona', 'Identificador de hogar', 'Area', 'Sexo',\n",
       "       'Edad', 'Seguro Social - Alternativa 1',\n",
       "       'Seguro Social - Alternativa 2', 'Estado civil', 'Nivel de instrucción',\n",
       "       'Nivel de instrucción.1', 'Cómo se considera',\n",
       "       'Condición de inactividad', 'Categoría de ocupación',\n",
       "       'Cuántos años trabaja', 'Condición de actividad', 'Ingreso Laboral',\n",
       "       'Grupo de Ocupación CIUO8 (población ocupada de 15 años y más)',\n",
       "       'Rama de Actividad CIIU4 (población ocupada de 15 años y más)',\n",
       "       'Ingreso per cápita', 'Pobreza', 'Extrema Pobreza',\n",
       "       'Forma de tenencia de la vivienda',\n",
       "       'Con relación al mes anterior, la situación económica de su hogar es:',\n",
       "       'Cómo cree usted que será la situación económica de su hogar dentro de los próximos 3 meses:',\n",
       "       'Planea usted o algún miembro del hogar adquirir un vehículo en los próximos 3 meses',\n",
       "       'Planea usted o algún miembro del hogar adquirir un inmueble (casa, departamento, pieza) en los próximos 3 meses',\n",
       "       'Usted o algún miembro del hogar tiene planes de endeudamiento en los próximos 3 meses (bancos, financieras, etc.)',\n",
       "       'Con relación al mes anterior, la situación económica del país es:',\n",
       "       'Usted considera que durante los próximos 3 meses la situación económica del país será:',\n",
       "       'En los 3 meses anteriores, considera que la situación en Ecuador para encontrar/mejorar un puesto de trabajo es:',\n",
       "       'Considera usted que la situación en Ecuador para encontrar/mejorar un puesto de trabajo dentro de 3 meses será:',\n",
       "       'Género del jefe/a de hogar', 'Cónyuge', 'Hijo o Hija', 'Parientes',\n",
       "       'No parientes', 'Empleado(a) doméstico(a)', 'Tipology',\n",
       "       'PARROQUIA_CODIGO', 'Número de mujeres en el hogar',\n",
       "       'Número de personas del hogar', 'Elección política',\n",
       "       'Votos proporcionales', 'random'],\n",
       "      dtype='object')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 127,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_regresion.columns"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 125,
   "id": "0304e586",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "df_regresion.to_csv('Data/df_regresion.csv', index_label=False, encoding='utf-8')"
   ]
  }
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