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fix rsv forecasts
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nikosbosse committed Dec 3, 2024
1 parent d3c35b7 commit 7b9afb6
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion rsv/Metaculus-cp.yaml
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@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
schema_version: "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/HopkinsIDD/rsv-forecast-hub/main/hub-config/model-metadata-schema.json"
team_name: "Metaculus"
team_abbr: "Metaculus"
model_name: "Metaculus Community Prediction"
Expand All @@ -19,7 +20,6 @@ model_contributors:
website_url: "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30048/us-rsv-hospitalization-forecasts-2024-25/"
repo_url: "https://github.com/Metaculus/respiratory-diseases"
license: "CC-BY-4.0"
designated_model: true
team_funding: "This project is supported by the National Science Foundation under Award No. 2438211. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this project are those of Metaculus and our forecasters, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation."
methods: "A recency-weighted average of predictions made by forecasters on the Metaculus prediction platform. Missing forecasts are linearly interpolated."
data_inputs: "Users are allowed to make use of any data they choose. The recency-weighted average takes only the numeric forecasts made by forecasters on the platform into account. We only launch new questions every 2 weeks. This means that alternatingly, only the forecasts 1, 3, 5 or 0, 2, 4 will actually be available. Missing forecasts are linearly interpolated to always produce a set for horizons 1, 2, 3, 4."
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5 changes: 5 additions & 0 deletions rsv/run-rsv-forecasts.py
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Expand Up @@ -114,4 +114,9 @@
]
]

forecasts_df_full.to_csv(
f"rsv/submissions-diagnostics/{origin_date}-Metaculus-cp.csv", index=False
)

forecasts_df_full = forecasts_df_full.drop(columns=["target_end_date"])
forecasts_df_full.to_csv(f"rsv/submissions/{origin_date}-Metaculus-cp.csv", index=False)
93 changes: 93 additions & 0 deletions rsv/submissions-diagnostics/2024-12-01-Metaculus-cp.csv
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origin_date,horizon,target,target_end_date,location,output_type,output_type_id,value,age_group
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.01,1767.8596906257987,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.025,2578.1596755449323,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.05,3193.6772553706355,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.1,3886.3740505468854,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.15,4363.404977218843,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.2,4753.317289074213,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.25,5097.253950899942,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.3,5414.847026122849,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.35,5718.025971324473,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.4,6015.017767344966,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.45,6312.300265300781,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.5,6615.810327732924,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.55,6931.777544339922,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.6,7268.217977232432,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.65,7635.077656258643,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.7,8046.468849389479,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.75,8526.480574429359,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.8,9114.990935815265,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.85,9891.220212938037,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.9,11057.962281943504,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.95,13361.693484680149,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.975,16252.485294486802,0-130
2024-12-01,1,inc hosp,2024-12-07,US,quantile,0.99,21445.955112133346,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.01,2348.1701304215107,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.025,3268.7988225120207,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.05,3911.593398436191,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.1,4611.993728150896,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.15,5082.847259168992,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.2,5461.29316181222,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.25,5792.110435939508,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.3,6094.5449102428665,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.35,6380.923561169797,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.4,6659.606975256591,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.45,6936.590521008839,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.5,7217.530678214111,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.55,7507.655838659483,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.6,7814.688422318302,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.65,8145.997486586967,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.7,8515.868720205777,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.75,8943.292243987678,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.8,9461.739628373934,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.85,10137.27267647527,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.9,11132.047345813357,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.95,13023.756162780432,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.975,15289.18908122327,0-130
2024-12-01,2,inc hosp,2024-12-14,US,quantile,0.99,19206.826013072725,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.01,2928.480570217223,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.025,3959.437969479109,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.05,4629.509541501747,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.1,5337.613405754905,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.15,5802.289541119142,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.2,6169.269034550229,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.25,6486.966920979074,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.3,6774.2427943628845,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.35,7043.8211510151195,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.4,7304.196183168216,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.45,7560.8807767168955,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.5,7819.2510286952975,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.55,8083.534132979044,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.6,8361.158867404172,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.65,8656.917316915291,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.7,8985.268591022073,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.75,9360.103913546,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.8,9808.488320932604,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.85,10383.325140012503,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.9,11206.132409683207,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.95,12685.818840880716,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.975,14325.892867959741,0-130
2024-12-01,3,inc hosp,2024-12-21,US,quantile,0.99,16967.696914012104,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.01,2928.480570217223,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.025,3959.437969479109,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.05,4629.509541501747,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.1,5337.613405754905,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.15,5802.289541119142,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.2,6169.269034550229,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.25,6486.966920979074,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.3,6774.2427943628845,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.35,7043.8211510151195,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.4,7304.196183168216,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.45,7560.8807767168955,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.5,7819.2510286952975,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.55,8083.534132979044,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.6,8361.158867404172,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.65,8656.917316915291,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.7,8985.268591022073,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.75,9360.103913546,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.8,9808.488320932604,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.85,10383.325140012503,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.9,11206.132409683207,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.95,12685.818840880716,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.975,14325.892867959741,0-130
2024-12-01,4,inc hosp,2024-12-28,US,quantile,0.99,16967.696914012104,0-130

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