submit-flu-forecasts.yaml

name: Make Flu Forecast Submission

on:
  schedule:
    # Every Wednesday at 6pm CET (17:00 UTC)
    - cron: '0 17 * * 3'
  workflow_dispatch:  # Allow manual triggering

jobs:
  submit-forecast:
    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
    permissions:
      contents: write
      pull-requests: write

    steps:
      - name: Checkout repository
        uses: actions/checkout@v4

      - name: Set up Python
        uses: actions/setup-python@v4
        with:
          python-version: '3.10'

      - name: Install dependencies
        run: |
          python -m pip install --upgrade pip
          pip install requests pandas numpy

      - name: Create required directories
        run: |
          mkdir -p flu/submissions

      - name: Run flu forecasting script
        run: python flu/run-flu-forecasts.py
        env:
          PYTHONPATH: ${{ github.workspace }}

      - name: Commit forecasts to repository
        run: |
          # Configure git
          git config user.name "github-actions[bot]"
          git config user.email "github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com"

          # Pull latest changes
          git pull origin main --rebase

          # Add and commit the new forecasts
          git add flu/submissions/

          # Only commit if there are changes
          if git diff --staged --quiet; then
            echo "No new forecasts to commit"
          else
            git commit -m "Store flu forecasts $(date +%Y-%m-%d)"
            # Try to push, if it fails due to conflicts, pull and push again
            git push || (git pull --rebase origin main && git push)
          fi

      - name: Fork and sync target repository
        run: |
          # Install GitHub CLI
          gh auth login --with-token <<< "${{ secrets.PRIVATE_ACCESS_TOKEN }}"

          # Fork the repository (if not already forked)
          gh repo fork cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub --clone=true || true

          # Sync the fork with upstream
          pushd FluSight-forecast-hub

          # Add upstream remote if it doesn't exist
          git remote add upstream https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub.git 2>/dev/null || true

          # Set the origin remote with authentication token
          git remote set-url origin "https://${{ secrets.PRIVATE_ACCESS_TOKEN }}@github.com/${{ github.actor }}/FluSight-forecast-hub.git"

          # Fetch and sync with upstream
          git fetch upstream
          git checkout main
          git reset --hard upstream/main
          git push origin main --force

          popd

      - name: Copy forecast files
        run: |
          # Create target directory if it doesn't exist
          mkdir -p FluSight-forecast-hub/model-output/Metaculus-cp

          # Copy new forecasts
          cp -r flu/submissions/* FluSight-forecast-hub/model-output/Metaculus-cp/

      - name: Create Pull Request
        run: |
          cd FluSight-forecast-hub

          # Setup git config
          git config user.name "github-actions[bot]"
          git config user.email "github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com"

          # Create a new branch with timestamp to ensure uniqueness
          BRANCH_NAME="flu-forecast-update-$(date +%Y%m%d-%H%M%S)"
          git checkout -b $BRANCH_NAME

          # Add and commit changes
          git add model-output/Metaculus-cp/

          # Only commit if there are changes
          if git diff --staged --quiet; then
            echo "No changes to commit"
            exit 0
          else
            git commit -m "Update flu forecasts $(date +%Y-%m-%d)"

            # Set the remote URL with authentication token
            git remote set-url origin "https://${{ secrets.PRIVATE_ACCESS_TOKEN }}@github.com/${{ github.actor }}/FluSight-forecast-hub.git"

            # Force push to fork with the new unique branch
            git push -f origin $BRANCH_NAME

            # Create PR
            gh pr create \
              --title "Update flu forecasts $(date +%Y-%m-%d)" \
              --body "Automated flu forecast submission from Metaculus" \
              --repo cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub \
              --base main \
              --head "${{ github.actor }}:$BRANCH_NAME"
          fi
        env:
          PRIVATE_ACCESS_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.PRIVATE_ACCESS_TOKEN }}