From ac4017756f62a1b4712e6a824be7ef3004178f35 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ben Wilson Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2024 23:50:46 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 1/6] Added benchmark object, and ability to benchmark multiple bots at once --- .../test_benchmarker.py | 11 +- .../test_binary_report.py | 8 +- .../forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py | 40 +++-- .../forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py | 161 ++++++++++++------ .../questions_and_reports/binary_report.py | 36 ---- .../questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py | 56 +++++- .../multiple_choice_report.py | 19 +++ forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py | 3 + front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py | 2 +- pyproject.toml | 2 +- scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py | 9 +- 11 files changed, 226 insertions(+), 121 deletions(-) diff --git a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py b/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py index 56588f0..e954a2d 100644 --- a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py +++ b/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py @@ -1,5 +1,4 @@ import os -from typing import Literal from unittest.mock import Mock import pytest @@ -34,7 +33,7 @@ async def test_file_is_made_for_benchmark(mocker: Mock) -> None: if os.path.isfile(os.path.join(absolute_path, f)) ) - await Benchmarker.benchmark_forecast_bot(bot, "shallow") + await Benchmarker.run_benchmark([bot], 10) files_after = set( f @@ -62,14 +61,10 @@ async def test_each_benchmark_mode_calls_forecaster_more_time( bot_type, mocker ) - modes: list[Literal["shallow", "medium", "deep"]] = [ - "shallow", - "medium", - "deep", - ] + modes: list[int] = [1, 5, 10] num_calls_for_modes = [] for mode in modes: - score = await Benchmarker.benchmark_forecast_bot(bot, mode) + score = await Benchmarker.run_benchmark([bot], mode) assert isinstance(score, float), "The score should be a float" previous_calls = num_calls_for_modes[-1] if num_calls_for_modes else 0 diff --git a/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_binary_report.py b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_binary_report.py index a3a5caf..58f1ca4 100644 --- a/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_binary_report.py +++ b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_binary_report.py @@ -106,7 +106,9 @@ def test_calculate_average_expected_log_score() -> None: ), ] - average_score = BinaryReport.calculate_average_expected_log_score(reports) + average_score = BinaryReport.calculate_average_inverse_expected_log_score( + reports + ) assert isinstance(average_score, float) # Test with None community prediction @@ -116,7 +118,9 @@ def test_calculate_average_expected_log_score() -> None: ) ] with pytest.raises(AssertionError): - BinaryReport.calculate_average_expected_log_score(reports_with_none) + BinaryReport.calculate_average_inverse_expected_log_score( + reports_with_none + ) def test_calculate_average_deviation_points() -> None: diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py index 0177b63..df62394 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py @@ -1,3 +1,5 @@ +import asyncio +import inspect import logging import time from abc import ABC, abstractmethod @@ -46,6 +48,7 @@ def __init__( publish_reports_to_metaculus: bool = False, folder_to_save_reports_to: str | None = None, skip_previously_forecasted_questions: bool = False, + skip_questions_that_error: bool = True, ) -> None: assert ( research_reports_per_question > 0 @@ -63,6 +66,15 @@ def __init__( self.skip_previously_forecasted_questions = ( skip_previously_forecasted_questions ) + self.skip_questions_that_error = skip_questions_that_error + + def get_config(self) -> dict[str, str]: + params = inspect.signature(self.__init__).parameters + return { + name: str(getattr(self, name)) + for name in params.keys() + if name != "self" + } async def forecast_on_tournament( self, @@ -103,18 +115,13 @@ async def forecast_questions( ) questions = unforecasted_questions reports: list[ForecastReport] = [] - reports, _ = ( - async_batching.run_coroutines_while_removing_and_logging_exceptions( - [ - self._run_individual_question(question) - for question in questions - ] - ) + reports = await self._run_coroutines_and_error_if_configured( + [self._run_individual_question(question) for question in questions] ) if self.folder_to_save_reports_to: file_path = self.__create_file_path_to_save_to(questions) ForecastReport.save_object_list_to_file_path(reports, file_path) - async_batching.run_coroutines_while_removing_and_logging_exceptions( + await self._run_coroutines_and_error_if_configured( [report.publish_report_to_metaculus() for report in reports] ) return reports @@ -140,8 +147,8 @@ async def _run_individual_question( self._research_and_make_predictions(question) for _ in range(self.research_reports_per_question) ] - research_with_predictions_units, _ = ( - async_batching.run_coroutines_while_removing_and_logging_exceptions( + research_with_predictions_units = ( + await self._run_coroutines_and_error_if_configured( prediction_tasks ) ) @@ -225,6 +232,19 @@ async def _research_and_make_predictions( predictions=reasoned_predictions, ) + async def _run_coroutines_and_error_if_configured( + self, coroutines: list[Coroutine[Any, Any, Any]] + ) -> list[Any]: + if self.skip_questions_that_error: + outputs, _ = ( + async_batching.run_coroutines_while_removing_and_logging_exceptions( + coroutines + ) + ) + return outputs + else: + return await asyncio.gather(*coroutines) + @abstractmethod async def _run_forecast_on_binary( self, question: BinaryQuestion, research: str diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py index 9ff128e..899f4ae 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py @@ -1,9 +1,13 @@ import subprocess +import time from datetime import datetime -from typing import Literal import typeguard +from pydantic import BaseModel +from forecasting_tools.ai_models.resource_managers.monetary_cost_manager import ( + MonetaryCostManager, +) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import ( ForecastBot, ) @@ -11,85 +15,132 @@ from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.binary_report import ( BinaryReport, ) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.multiple_choice_report import ( + MultipleChoiceReport, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.numeric_report import ( + NumericReport, +) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.questions import ( MetaculusQuestion, ) +from forecasting_tools.util.jsonable import Jsonable -class Benchmarker: - - @classmethod - async def benchmark_forecast_bot( - cls, - forecast_bot: ForecastBot, - number_of_questions_to_test: ( - Literal["shallow", "medium", "deep"] | int - ), - file_path_to_save_reports: str = "logs/forecasts/benchmarks/", - ) -> float: - """ - Below are the conclusions of a rough (and potentially flawed) simulation of tournaments and skill levels - to help with choosing sample sizes. See https://chatgpt.com/share/3fbc8106-829d-4fb3-a9e6-af0badf266df +class BenchmarkForBot(BaseModel, Jsonable): + name: str + description: str + timestamp: datetime = datetime.now() + time_taken_in_minutes: float | None + total_cost: float | None + git_commit_hash: str + forecast_bot_config: dict[str, str] + forecast_reports: list[BinaryReport | NumericReport | MultipleChoiceReport] - lower = decent but lower quality = 50% of my deviation values (prediction - community vote) is above ~0.25 - higher = decent but higher quality = 50% of my devaiation values (predition - community vote) is above ~0.17 + @property + def average_expected_log_score(self) -> float: + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") - At 10 samples - - 20% of being lower, but seeming higher - - 40% chance of being lower but seeming higher - At 20 samples - - 5% of being lower, but seeming higher - - 20% being higher, but seeming lower +class Benchmarker: + """ + For an idea of how many questions are 'enough' to test with read: + https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DzqSh7akX28JEHf9H/comparing-two-forecasters-in-an-ideal-world + Also see the results of a rough (and probably flawed) simulation here: + https://chatgpt.com/share/3fbc8106-829d-4fb3-a9e6-af0badf266df - At 30 samples - - 3% of being lower, but seeming higher - - 10% of being higher, but seeming lower + TLDR: 100-200 questions is a decent starting point, but 500+ would be ideal. + Lower than 100 can differentiate between bots of large skill differences, + but not between bots of small skill differences. But even with 100 there is + ~30% of the 'worse bot' winning if there are not large skill differences. + """ - The chances for misidentification decreases as the bot gains a deviation distribution that leans more towards 0. The chances get higher as it leans more towards 1. - TODO: Incorporate the following analysis which is more rigorous. TLDR the numbers above are probably wrong: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DzqSh7akX28JEHf9H/comparing-two-forecasters-in-an-ideal-world - """ + def __init__( + self, + forecast_bots: list[ForecastBot], + number_of_questions_to_use: int, + file_path_to_save_reports: str | None = None, + ) -> None: + self.forecast_bots = forecast_bots + self.number_of_questions_to_use = number_of_questions_to_use + if ( + file_path_to_save_reports is not None + and not file_path_to_save_reports.endswith("/") + ): + file_path_to_save_reports += "/" + self.file_path_to_save_reports = file_path_to_save_reports - if isinstance(number_of_questions_to_test, int): - num_questions_to_benchmark_on = number_of_questions_to_test - elif number_of_questions_to_test == "shallow": - num_questions_to_benchmark_on = 10 - elif number_of_questions_to_test == "medium": - num_questions_to_benchmark_on = 30 - elif number_of_questions_to_test == "deep": - num_questions_to_benchmark_on = 100 + async def run_benchmark(self) -> list[BenchmarkForBot]: questions = MetaculusApi.get_benchmark_questions( - num_questions_to_benchmark_on, + self.number_of_questions_to_use, random_seed=42, # Choose a random seed so all benchmarks in a similar time period use the same questions ) - assert len(questions) == num_questions_to_benchmark_on questions = typeguard.check_type(questions, list[MetaculusQuestion]) - reports = await forecast_bot.forecast_questions(questions) - reports = typeguard.check_type(reports, list[BinaryReport]) - average_deviation_score = ( - BinaryReport.calculate_average_expected_log_score(reports) - ) - rounded_score = round(average_deviation_score, 4) + assert len(questions) == self.number_of_questions_to_use + benchmarks = [ + BenchmarkForBot( + forecast_reports=[], + forecast_bot_config=bot.get_config(), + description=f"This benchmark ran the {bot.__class__.__name__} bot on {self.number_of_questions_to_use} questions.", + name=f"Benchmark for {bot.__class__.__name__}", + time_taken_in_minutes=None, + total_cost=None, + git_commit_hash=self._get_git_commit_hash(), + ) + for bot in self.forecast_bots + ] - git_hash = cls.__get_git_commit_hash() - if not file_path_to_save_reports.endswith("/"): - file_path_to_save_reports += "/" + question_batch_size = 10 + for bot, benchmark in zip(self.forecast_bots, benchmarks): + with MonetaryCostManager() as cost_manager: + start_time = time.time() + for batch in self._batch_questions( + questions, question_batch_size + ): + reports = await bot.forecast_questions(batch) + reports = typeguard.check_type( + reports, + list[ + BinaryReport | MultipleChoiceReport | NumericReport + ], + ) + benchmark.forecast_reports.extend(reports) + if self.file_path_to_save_reports is not None: + self._save_benchmarks_to_file( + benchmarks, self.file_path_to_save_reports + ) + end_time = time.time() + benchmark.time_taken_in_minutes = (end_time - start_time) / 60 + benchmark.total_cost = cost_manager.current_usage + return benchmarks + + @classmethod + def _batch_questions( + cls, questions: list[MetaculusQuestion], batch_size: int + ) -> list[list[MetaculusQuestion]]: + return [ + questions[i : i + batch_size] + for i in range(0, len(questions), batch_size) + ] + + @classmethod + def _save_benchmarks_to_file( + cls, benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot], file_path_to_save_reports: str + ) -> None: file_path_to_save_reports = ( f"{file_path_to_save_reports}" - f"{datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d_%H-%M-%S')}__" - f"score_{rounded_score}__" - f"git_{git_hash}__" + f"benchmarks_" + f"{datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d_%H-%M-%S')}" f".json" ) - BinaryReport.save_object_list_to_file_path( - reports, file_path_to_save_reports + BenchmarkForBot.save_object_list_to_file_path( + benchmarks, file_path_to_save_reports ) - return average_deviation_score @classmethod - def __get_git_commit_hash(cls) -> str: + def _get_git_commit_hash(cls) -> str: try: return ( subprocess.check_output( diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py index 28bb386..a6b21f4 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py @@ -55,13 +55,6 @@ def community_prediction(self) -> float | None: @property def inversed_expected_log_score(self) -> float | None: - """ - Expected log score is evaluated to correlate closest to the baseline score - when assuming the community prediction is the true probability. - (see scripts/simulate_a_tournament.ipynb). - We invert the expected log score so it behaves like a brier score - (where it is positive and lower is better). - """ c = self.community_prediction p = self.prediction if c is None: @@ -75,32 +68,3 @@ def deviation_points(self) -> float | None: if self.community_prediction is None: return None return abs(self.prediction - self.community_prediction) - - @staticmethod - def calculate_average_expected_log_score( - reports: list[BinaryReport], - ) -> float: - deviation_scores: list[float | None] = [ - report.inversed_expected_log_score for report in reports - ] - validated_deviation_scores: list[float] = [] - for score in deviation_scores: - assert score is not None - validated_deviation_scores.append(score) - average_deviation_score = sum(validated_deviation_scores) / len( - validated_deviation_scores - ) - return average_deviation_score - - @staticmethod - def calculate_average_deviation_points( - reports: list[BinaryReport], - ) -> float: - validated_deviation_points: list[float] = [] - for report in reports: - assert report.deviation_points is not None - validated_deviation_points.append(report.deviation_points) - assert validated_deviation_points - return sum(validated_deviation_points) / len( - validated_deviation_points - ) diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py index f3bc75d..64fb28d 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py @@ -62,10 +62,52 @@ def research(self) -> str: def forecast_rationales(self) -> str: return self._get_section_content(index=2, expected_word="forecast") - @abstractmethod - async def publish_report_to_metaculus(self) -> None: - raise NotImplementedError( - "Subclass must implement this abstract method" + @property + def inversed_expected_log_score(self) -> float | None: + """ + Expected log score is evaluated to correlate closest to the baseline score + when assuming the community prediction is the true probability. + (see scripts/simulate_a_tournament.ipynb). + We invert the expected log score so it behaves like a brier score + (where it is positive and lower is better). + """ + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + + @property + def deviation_points(self) -> float | None: + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + + @property + def community_prediction(self) -> Any | None: + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + + @staticmethod + def calculate_average_inverse_expected_log_score( + reports: list[ForecastReport], + ) -> float: + deviation_scores: list[float | None] = [ + report.inversed_expected_log_score for report in reports + ] + validated_deviation_scores: list[float] = [] + for score in deviation_scores: + assert score is not None + validated_deviation_scores.append(score) + average_deviation_score = sum(validated_deviation_scores) / len( + validated_deviation_scores + ) + return average_deviation_score + + @staticmethod + def calculate_average_deviation_points( + reports: list[ForecastReport], + ) -> float: + validated_deviation_points: list[float] = [] + for report in reports: + assert report.deviation_points is not None + validated_deviation_points.append(report.deviation_points) + assert validated_deviation_points + return sum(validated_deviation_points) / len( + validated_deviation_points ) @classmethod @@ -84,6 +126,12 @@ def make_readable_prediction(cls, prediction: Any) -> str: "Subclass must implement this abstract method" ) + @abstractmethod + async def publish_report_to_metaculus(self) -> None: + raise NotImplementedError( + "Subclass must implement this abstract method" + ) + def _get_section_content(self, index: int, expected_word: str) -> str: if len(self.report_sections) <= index: raise ValueError(f"Report must have at least {index + 1} sections") diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py index 215f42a..6f2f4f6 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py @@ -22,6 +22,25 @@ class MultipleChoiceReport(ForecastReport): question: MultipleChoiceQuestion prediction: PredictedOptionList + @property + def inversed_expected_log_score(self) -> float | None: + """ + Expected log score is evaluated to correlate closest to the baseline score + when assuming the community prediction is the true probability. + (see scripts/simulate_a_tournament.ipynb). + We invert the expected log score so it behaves like a brier score + (where it is positive and lower is better). + """ + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + + @property + def deviation_points(self) -> float | None: + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + + @property + def community_prediction(self) -> PredictedOptionList | None: + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + async def publish_report_to_metaculus(self) -> None: if self.question.id_of_question is None: raise ValueError("Question ID is None") diff --git a/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py b/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py index a6878f6..5bbbf6e 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py @@ -19,6 +19,9 @@ class Jsonable(ABC): An interface that allows a class to be converted to and from json """ + def __dict__(self) -> dict: + return self.to_json() + def to_json(self) -> dict: if isinstance(self, BaseModel): return self._pydantic_model_to_dict(self) diff --git a/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py b/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py index 9c9845a..bd988be 100644 --- a/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py +++ b/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py @@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ def __display_stats_for_report_type( cls, reports: list[BinaryReport], title: str ) -> None: average_expected_log_score = ( - BinaryReport.calculate_average_expected_log_score(reports) + BinaryReport.calculate_average_inverse_expected_log_score(reports) ) average_deviation = BinaryReport.calculate_average_deviation_points( reports diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml index 16157bc..6193cbe 100644 --- a/pyproject.toml +++ b/pyproject.toml @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ [tool.poetry] name = "forecasting-tools" -version = "0.2.2" +version = "0.2.3" description = "AI forecasting and research tools to help humans reason about and forecast the future" authors = ["Benjamin Wilson "] license = "MIT" diff --git a/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py b/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py index 6bee821..d651f83 100644 --- a/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py +++ b/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py @@ -16,12 +16,13 @@ async def benchmark_forecast_bot() -> None: with MonetaryCostManager() as cost_manager: bot = MainBot() - score = await Benchmarker().benchmark_forecast_bot( - number_of_questions_to_test=100, - forecast_bot=bot, + benchmark = await Benchmarker().run_benchmark( + number_of_questions_to_use=100, + forecast_bots=[bot], + file_path_to_save_reports="logs/forecasts/benchmarks/", ) logger.info(f"Total Cost: {cost_manager.current_usage}") - logger.info(f"Final Score: {score}") + logger.info(f"Final Score: {benchmark.average_expected_log_score}") if __name__ == "__main__": From 8d8690d3176f68b7aeb993ec6ae4ae99321909d6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ben Wilson Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2024 05:05:01 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 2/6] Added some benchmark tests, and updated readme --- README.ipynb | 118 +- README.md | 86 +- .../test_forecast_database_manager.py | 6 +- .../test_forecasting_bots.py | 9 + .../benchmark_object_examples.json | 88080 ++++++++++++++++ .../forecasting_test_manager.py | 1 + .../test_forecasting}/test_benchmarker.py | 39 +- .../test_benchmark_for_bot.py | 35 + .../jsonable_assertations.py | 8 +- forecasting_tools/__init__.py | 6 + .../model_archetypes/openai_text_model.py | 5 +- .../forecasting/forecast_bots/bot_lists.py | 2 +- .../forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py | 2 +- .../forecasting/forecast_bots/main_bot.py | 4 + .../forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py | 38 +- .../benchmark_for_bot.py | 39 + .../questions_and_reports/binary_report.py | 13 + .../questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py | 17 - .../multiple_choice_report.py | 11 - .../questions_and_reports/numeric_report.py | 8 + forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py | 2 +- front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py | 2 +- scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py | 30 +- scripts/gather_saved_reports.py | 4 +- scripts/show_saved_report_app.py | 4 +- 25 files changed, 88450 insertions(+), 119 deletions(-) create mode 100644 code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_data/benchmark_object_examples.json rename code_tests/{low_cost_or_live_api_tests => unit_tests/test_forecasting}/test_benchmarker.py (68%) create mode 100644 code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_benchmark_for_bot.py create mode 100644 forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/benchmark_for_bot.py diff --git a/README.ipynb b/README.ipynb index 5725e33..8fa63cd 100644 --- a/README.ipynb +++ b/README.ipynb @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 5, + "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -10,11 +10,11 @@ "output_type": "stream", "text": [ "[NbConvertApp] Converting notebook README.ipynb to markdown\n", - "[NbConvertApp] Writing 29531 bytes to README.md\n", + "[NbConvertApp] Writing 32246 bytes to README.md\n", "┌──────────┬────────────┬───────────┐\n", "│ \u001b[1mlast_day\u001b[0m │ \u001b[1mlast_month\u001b[0m │ \u001b[1mlast_week\u001b[0m │\n", "├──────────┼────────────┼───────────┤\n", - "│ 190 │ 778 │ 369 │\n", + "│ 134 │ 905 │ 472 │\n", "└──────────┴────────────┴───────────┘\n", "\n" ] @@ -50,7 +50,8 @@ "\n", "Here are the tools most likely to be useful to you:\n", "- 🎯 **Forecasting Bot:** General Forecaster that integrates with the Metaculus AI benchmarking competition. You can forecast with a pre-existing bot or override the class to customize your own (without redoing all the API code, etc)\n", - "- 🔍 **Perplexity++ Smart Searcher:** An AI-powered internet-informed llm powered by Exa.ai. Its a better (but slightly more expensive) alternative to Perplexity.ai that is configurable, more accurate, able to decide on filters, able to link to exact paragraphs, etc.\n", + "- 📊 **Benchmarking:** Randomly sample quality questions from Metaculus and run you bot against them so you can get an early sense of how your bot is doing by comparing to the community prediction and expected log scores. \n", + "- 🔍 **Perplexity++ Smart Searcher:** A custom AI-powered internet-informed llm powered by Exa.ai and Gpt. Its a better (but slightly more expensive) alternative to Perplexity.ai that is configurable, more accurate, able to decide on filters, able to link to exact paragraphs, etc.\n", "- 🔑 **Key Factor Analysis:** Key Factors Analysis for scoring, ranking, and prioritizing important variables in forecasting questions\n", "\n", "\n", @@ -61,9 +62,9 @@ "- **Metaculus API Wrapper:** for interacting with questions and tournaments\n", "- **Monetary Cost Manager:** for tracking AI and API expenses\n", "\n", - "Join the [discord](https://discord.gg/Dtq4JNdXnw) for updates and to give feedback (btw feedback is very appreciated, even just a quick 'I did/didn't decide to use the tool for reason X' is helpful to know)\n", + "Join the [discord](https://discord.gg/Dtq4JNdXnw) for updates and to give feedback (btw feedback is very appreciated, even just a quick \"I did/didn't decide to use tool X for reason Y, though am busy and don't have time to elaborate\" is helpful to know)\n", "\n", - "Note: This package is still in a experimental phase. The goal is to keep the API fairly stable, though no guarantees are given at this phase. There will be special effort to keep the ForecastBot and TemplateBot APIs consistent." + "Note: This package is still in an experimental phase. The goal is to keep the package API fairly stable, though no guarantees are given at this phase. There will be special effort to keep the ForecastBot and TemplateBot APIs consistent." ] }, { @@ -275,8 +276,111 @@ "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ - "# Forecasting Tools Examples\n", + "# Forecasting Tools Examples" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ + "## Benchmarking\n", + "Below is an example of how to run the benchmarker" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "from forecasting_tools import Benchmarker, TemplateBot, BenchmarkForBot\n", + "\n", + "class CustomBot(TemplateBot):\n", + " ...\n", "\n", + "# Run benchmark on multiple bots\n", + "bots = [TemplateBot(), CustomBot()] # Add your custom bots here\n", + "benchmarker = Benchmarker(\n", + " forecast_bots=bots,\n", + " number_of_questions_to_use=2, # Recommended 100+ for meaningful results\n", + " file_path_to_save_reports=\"benchmarks/\"\n", + ")\n", + "benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot] = await benchmarker.run_benchmark()\n", + "\n", + "# View results\n", + "for benchmark in benchmarks:\n", + " print(f\"Bot: {benchmark.name}\")\n", + " print(f\"Score: {benchmark.average_inverse_expected_log_score}\") # Lower is better\n", + " print(f\"Num Forecasts: {len(benchmark.forecast_reports)}\")\n", + " print(f\"Time: {benchmark.time_taken_in_minutes}min\")\n", + " print(f\"Cost: ${benchmark.total_cost}\")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ + "The ideal number of questions to get a good sense of whether one bot is better than another can vary. 100+ should tell your something decent. See [this analysis](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DzqSh7akX28JEHf9H/comparing-two-forecasters-in-an-ideal-world) for exploration of the numbers.\n", + "\n", + "As of Dec 20, 2024 the benchmarker automatically selects a random set of questions from Metaculus that:\n", + "- Are binary questions (yes/no)\n", + "- Are currently open\n", + "- Will resolve within 3 months\n", + "- Have at least 40 forecasters\n", + "- Have a community prediction\n", + "- Are not notebook/group/conditional questions\n", + "\n", + "As of last edit there are plans to expand this to numeric and multiple choice, but right now it just benchmarks binary questions.\n", + "\n", + "You can grab these questions without using the Benchmarker by running the below\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "from forecasting_tools import MetaculusApi\n", + "\n", + "questions = MetaculusApi.get_benchmark_questions(\n", + " num_of_questions_to_return=100,\n", + ")" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ + "You can also save/load benchmarks to/from json" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "code", + "execution_count": null, + "metadata": {}, + "outputs": [], + "source": [ + "from forecasting_tools import BenchmarkForBot\n", + "\n", + "# Load\n", + "file_path = \"benchmarks/benchmark.json\"\n", + "benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot] = BenchmarkForBot.load_json_from_file_path(file_path)\n", + "\n", + "# Save\n", + "new_benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot] = benchmarks\n", + "BenchmarkForBot.save_object_list_to_file_path(new_benchmarks, file_path)\n", + "\n", + "# To/From Json String\n", + "single_benchmark = benchmarks[0]\n", + "json_object: dict = single_benchmark.to_json()\n", + "new_benchmark: BenchmarkForBot = BenchmarkForBot.from_json(json_object)\n" + ] + }, + { + "cell_type": "markdown", + "metadata": {}, + "source": [ "## Smart Searcher\n", "The Smart Searcher acts like an LLM with internet access. It works a lot like Perplexity.ai API, except:\n", "- It has clickable citations that highlights and links directly to the paragraph cited using text fragments\n", diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 923d960..9f633b2 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -1,9 +1,3 @@ -```python -# To keep the notebook and readme in sync, run this, then delete this code from the top -!jupyter nbconvert --to markdown README.ipynb --output README.md -!pypistats recent forecasting-tools -``` - ![PyPI version](https://badge.fury.io/py/forecasting-tools.svg) ![Python Versions](https://img.shields.io/pypi/pyversions/forecasting-tools.svg) ![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-blue.svg) @@ -22,7 +16,8 @@ This repository contains forecasting and research tools built with Python and St Here are the tools most likely to be useful to you: - 🎯 **Forecasting Bot:** General Forecaster that integrates with the Metaculus AI benchmarking competition. You can forecast with a pre-existing bot or override the class to customize your own (without redoing all the API code, etc) -- 🔍 **Perplexity++ Smart Searcher:** An AI-powered internet-informed llm powered by Exa.ai. Its a better (but more expensive) alternative to Perplexity.ai that is configurable, more accurate, able to decide on filters, able to link to exact paragraphs, etc. +- 📊 **Benchmarking:** Randomly sample quality questions from Metaculus and run you bot against them so you can get an early sense of how your bot is doing by comparing to the community prediction and expected log scores. +- 🔍 **Perplexity++ Smart Searcher:** A custom AI-powered internet-informed llm powered by Exa.ai and Gpt. Its a better (but slightly more expensive) alternative to Perplexity.ai that is configurable, more accurate, able to decide on filters, able to link to exact paragraphs, etc. - 🔑 **Key Factor Analysis:** Key Factors Analysis for scoring, ranking, and prioritizing important variables in forecasting questions @@ -33,9 +28,9 @@ Here are some other cool components and features of the project: - **Metaculus API Wrapper:** for interacting with questions and tournaments - **Monetary Cost Manager:** for tracking AI and API expenses -Join the [discord](https://discord.gg/Dtq4JNdXnw) for updates and to give feedback (btw feedback is very appreciated, even just a quick 'I did/didn't decide to use the tool for reason X' is helpful to know) +Join the [discord](https://discord.gg/Dtq4JNdXnw) for updates and to give feedback (btw feedback is very appreciated, even just a quick "I did/didn't decide to use tool X for reason Y, though am busy and don't have time to elaborate" is helpful to know) -Note: This package is still in a experimental phase. The goal is to keep the API fairly stable, though no guarantees are given at this phase. There will be special effort to keep the ForecastBot and TemplateBot APIs consistent. +Note: This package is still in an experimental phase. The goal is to keep the package API fairly stable, though no guarantees are given at this phase. There will be special effort to keep the ForecastBot and TemplateBot APIs consistent. # Forecasting Bot Building @@ -207,6 +202,79 @@ Whether running locally or through Github actions, you will need to set environm # Forecasting Tools Examples +## Benchmarking +Below is an example of how to run the benchmarker + + +```python +from forecasting_tools import Benchmarker, TemplateBot, BenchmarkForBot + +class MyCustomBot(TemplateBot): + ... + +# Run benchmark on multiple bots +bots = [TemplateBot(), MyCustomBot()] # Add your custom bots here +benchmarker = Benchmarker( + forecast_bots=bots, + number_of_questions_to_use=2, # Recommended 100+ for meaningful results + file_path_to_save_reports="benchmarks/" +) +benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot] = await benchmarker.run_benchmark() + +# View results +for benchmark in benchmarks: + print(f"Bot: {benchmark.name}") + print(f"Score: {benchmark.average_inverse_expected_log_score}") # Lower is better + print(f"Num Forecasts: {len(benchmark.forecast_reports)}") + print(f"Time: {benchmark.time_taken_in_minutes}min") + print(f"Cost: ${benchmark.total_cost}") +``` + +The ideal number of questions to get a good sense of whether one bot is better than another can vary. 100+ should tell your something decent. See [this analysis](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DzqSh7akX28JEHf9H/comparing-two-forecasters-in-an-ideal-world) for exploration of the numbers. + +As of Dec 20, 2024 the benchmarker automatically selects a random set of questions from Metaculus that: +- Are binary questions (yes/no) +- Are currently open +- Will resolve within 3 months +- Have at least 40 forecasters +- Have a community prediction +- Are not notebook/group/conditional questions + +As of last edit there are plans to expand this to numeric and multiple choice, but right now it just benchmarks binary questions. + +You can grab these questions without using the Benchmarker by running the below + + + +```python +from forecasting_tools import MetaculusApi + +questions = MetaculusApi.get_benchmark_questions( + num_of_questions_to_return=100, +) +``` + +You can also save/load benchmarks to/from json + + +```python +from forecasting_tools import BenchmarkForBot + +# Load +file_path = "benchmarks/benchmark.json" +benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot] = BenchmarkForBot.load_json_from_file_path(file_path) + +# Save +new_benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot] = benchmarks +BenchmarkForBot.save_object_list_to_file_path(new_benchmarks, file_path) + +# To/From Json String +single_benchmark = benchmarks[0] +json_object: dict = single_benchmark.to_json() +new_benchmark: BenchmarkForBot = BenchmarkForBot.from_json(json_object) + +``` + ## Smart Searcher The Smart Searcher acts like an LLM with internet access. It works a lot like Perplexity.ai API, except: - It has clickable citations that highlights and links directly to the paragraph cited using text fragments diff --git a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecast_database_manager.py b/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecast_database_manager.py index 264404d..ef24321 100644 --- a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecast_database_manager.py +++ b/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecast_database_manager.py @@ -70,9 +70,7 @@ def get_forecast_example_reports() -> list[ForecastReport]: def get_base_rate_example_reports() -> list[BaseRateReport]: base_rate_data_path = "code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_data/base_rate_reports.json" - base_rate_reports = ( - BaseRateReport.convert_project_file_path_to_object_list( - base_rate_data_path - ) + base_rate_reports = BaseRateReport.load_json_from_file_path( + base_rate_data_path ) return base_rate_reports diff --git a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecasting_bots.py b/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecasting_bots.py index 9cb18a4..0ee8497 100644 --- a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecasting_bots.py +++ b/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_forecasting_bots.py @@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ MonetaryCostManager, ) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.bot_lists import ( + get_all_bot_classes, get_cheap_bot_question_type_pairs, ) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import ( @@ -100,3 +101,11 @@ async def test_no_reports_when_questions_already_forecasted( assert len(reports) == len( questions ), "Expected all questions to be forecasted on" + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("bot", get_all_bot_classes()) +def test_bot_has_config(bot: type[ForecastBot]): + probable_minimum_number_of_bot_params = 3 + bot_config = bot().get_config() + assert bot_config is not None + assert len(bot_config.keys()) > probable_minimum_number_of_bot_params diff --git a/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_data/benchmark_object_examples.json b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_data/benchmark_object_examples.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b99f76 --- /dev/null +++ b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_data/benchmark_object_examples.json @@ -0,0 +1,88080 @@ +[ + { + "name": "Benchmark for MainBot", + "description": "This benchmark ran the MainBot bot on 2 questions.", + "timestamp": "2024-12-21T00:05:58.953367", + "time_taken_in_minutes": 2.0368106881777446, + "total_cost": 3.5810499999999994, + "git_commit_hash": "ac40177", + "forecast_bot_config": { + "research_reports_per_question": "3", + "predictions_per_research_report": "5", + "use_research_summary_to_forecast": "True", + "publish_reports_to_metaculus": "False", + "folder_to_save_reports_to": "None", + "skip_previously_forecasted_questions": "False", + "number_of_background_questions_to_ask": "5", + "number_of_base_rate_questions_to_ask": "5", + "number_of_base_rates_to_do_deep_research_on": "0" + }, + "forecast_reports": [ + { + "question": { + "question_text": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?", + "page_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20776", + "id_of_post": 20776, + "id_of_question": 20776, + "num_forecasters": 549, + "num_predictions": 1532, + "state": "open", + "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. 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"score_data": {} + }, + "withdraw_permitted": false + }, + "user_permission": "forecaster", + "vote": { + "score": 21, + "user_vote": null + }, + "forecasts_count": 1532, + "is_current_content_translated": false, + "description": "As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia.\n\nWill this changing landscape at the state level influence federal policy? The Schedule I classification, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act, is reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification." + }, + "already_forecasted": false, + "community_prediction_at_access_time": 0.05 + }, + "explanation": "\n# SUMMARY\n*Question*: Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?\n*Final Prediction*: 10.0%\n*Total Cost*: $1.73\n*Time Spent*: 1.99 minutes\n\n\n## Report 1 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 70.0%\n*Forecaster 2*: 5.0%\n*Forecaster 3*: 15.0%\n*Forecaster 4*: 25.0%\n*Forecaster 5*: 20.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent developments indicate a significant shift in the federal stance on cannabis reclassification. In August 2024, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recommended that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug, based on a comprehensive review by the FDA. This marks the first time HHS has publicly acknowledged marijuana's medical use, suggesting a lower public health risk compared to other controlled substances. The DEA has the final authority to act on this recommendation, with a decision expected soon, following President Biden's directive to expedite the review process [Q1].\n\nPublic opinion strongly supports cannabis legalization, with 88% of U.S. adults favoring legal use for medical or recreational purposes. This trend has been consistent over the past five years, with a record 70% of Americans supporting legalization in 2024. State-level legalization trends, with 24 states legalizing recreational marijuana, reflect this growing acceptance and could influence federal policy. However, federal policy changes in response to state actions have historically been slow, often requiring significant federal motivation or pressure [Q4][Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- The reclassification of drugs from Schedule I to Schedule III is rare, with dronabinol being a notable example in 1999 [B2].\n- Federal policy changes in response to state-level legislation are infrequent and often involve significant pressure or incentives, as seen with the National Minimum Drinking Age Act of 1984 [B3].\n- Changes in public opinion have historically influenced federal drug policy, but the process is complex and not directly linear [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- The HHS recommendation to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III marks a significant shift in federal acknowledgment of its medical use [Q1].\n- Public support for cannabis legalization is at a record high, with 70% of Americans in favor, potentially influencing federal policy [Q4].\n\n#### Cons\n- The DEA has historically been cautious in rescheduling drugs, requiring substantial evidence of medical use and lower abuse potential [B1].\n- Federal policy changes in response to state-level actions have been slow, indicating potential delays in cannabis reclassification [B3].\n\n\n## Report 2 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 10.0%\n*Forecaster 2*: 25.0%\n*Forecaster 3*: 20.0%\n*Forecaster 4*: 5.0%\n*Forecaster 5*: 5.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent developments indicate a significant push towards reclassifying cannabis in the United States. The Biden administration has proposed moving cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, following the DEA's approval of a federal health agency's recommendation. This unprecedented move, initiated by the administration, is currently under review by the Office of Management and Budget. The public comment period ended in July 2024, with a hearing held in December 2024, suggesting a strong possibility of reclassification before 2025, pending administrative processes and public feedback [Q1].\n\nPublic opinion strongly favors cannabis legalization, with bipartisan support growing over recent years. Economic impacts of reclassification are substantial, with the cannabis industry projected to add $100 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023. This economic potential, alongside public support, could influence legislative decisions. However, the DEA has not reclassified any Schedule I drug in the last 50 years, highlighting the complexity and rarity of such a change [Q3][Q4][B1].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- The DEA has not reclassified any Schedule I drug to a lower schedule in the last 50 years [B1].\n- Federal classification of a substance has not changed after a majority of states legalized it for recreational use [B2].\n- There are very few instances where a Schedule I drug has been reclassified quickly, with synthetic THC taking several years [B3].\n\n#### Pros\n- The Biden administration's proposal and the DEA's approval of reclassification indicate strong political will [Q1].\n- Public opinion strongly favors cannabis legalization, with significant bipartisan support [Q3].\n- The cannabis industry is projected to add $100 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023, providing economic incentives for reclassification [Q4].\n\n#### Cons\n- The DEA has not reclassified any Schedule I drug in the last 50 years, indicating a challenging precedent [B1].\n- Federal classification has not historically changed after state-level legalization, suggesting potential resistance [B2].\n- Reclassification processes are typically lengthy and complex, with few instances of rapid changes [B3].\n\n\n## Report 3 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 10.0%\n*Forecaster 2*: 5.0%\n*Forecaster 3*: 5.0%\n*Forecaster 4*: 70.0%\n*Forecaster 5*: 10.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent developments indicate a significant shift towards reclassifying cannabis under the Controlled Substances Act. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has recognized marijuana's medical uses, prompting the Department of Justice (DOJ) to consider rescheduling it. This move is historic, as it challenges the current Schedule I classification, which is for substances with no medical use and high abuse potential. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) will make the final decision, following a rulemaking process that includes public comments. These steps suggest a strong possibility of reclassification to Schedule III, aligning marijuana with other medicinal drugs [Q1].\n\nPublic opinion strongly supports federal cannabis legalization, with a majority of Americans favoring it for both medical and recreational use. This growing acceptance across demographics and political affiliations could influence policymakers and legislative actions, impacting the likelihood of federal reclassification. The 2024 elections may also play a crucial role, as candidates' stances on cannabis vary significantly, potentially affecting the federal policy landscape depending on the election outcomes [Q2][Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Public support for marijuana legalization has increased from 25% in 1995 to 68% in recent years, correlating with legislative changes but not directly leading to federal reclassification [B2].\n- Federal recommendations to reschedule a drug do not commonly result in reclassification within a year, especially for high-interest drugs like cannabis [B3].\n- State-level legal changes have influenced federal enforcement practices but have not directly led to federal reclassification [B4].\n\n#### Pros\n- The HHS has recommended rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III, acknowledging its medical use, marking a significant shift in federal policy [Q3].\n- Strong public support for cannabis legalization could pressure policymakers to act, with 88% of U.S. adults supporting legalization for medical or recreational use [B5].\n\n#### Cons\n- The DEA's rulemaking process, including public comments and administrative hearings, can significantly delay reclassification, making a change within a year uncommon [B3].\n- The outcome of the 2024 elections could impact reclassification likelihood, with Republican candidates generally opposing federal legalization [Q5].\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n## R1: Q1: What recent statements have been made by key federal policymakers regarding the reclassification of cannabis under the Controlled Substances Act?\nAnswer:\nRecent statements by key federal policymakers indicate a significant shift in the federal government's stance on cannabis reclassification under the Controlled Substances Act. In August 2024, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recommended that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug. This recommendation is based on a comprehensive review by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which found credible scientific support for the medical use of marijuana and concluded that it poses a lower public health risk compared to other controlled substances \\[[4](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=This%20is%20the%20first%20time,to%20act%20on%20the%20recommendation.)\\]\\[[11](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=Federal%20health%20officials%20determined%20marijuana,and%20no%20accepted%20medical%20use.)\\]. This marks the first time HHS has publicly acknowledged marijuana's medical use, a major departure from its previous stance \\[[5](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=The%20extensive%20scientific%20review%20illuminates,category%20as%20heroin%20and%20LSD.)\\]\\[[11](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=Federal%20health%20officials%20determined%20marijuana,and%20no%20accepted%20medical%20use.)\\].\n\nThe DEA has the final authority to act on this recommendation, with a decision expected in the coming months \\[[6](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/12/hhs-scientists-medical-marijuana-00135433#:~:text=The%20Drug%20Enforcement%20Administration%20will,country%20over%20the%20last%20decade.)\\]. This development follows President Joe Biden's directive in October 2022 to expedite a review of marijuana's classification, reflecting a broader trend towards cannabis legalization across the United States \\[[1](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/12/hhs-scientists-medical-marijuana-00135433#:~:text=The%20agency%20on%20Friday%20released,or%20removed%20from%20it%20altogether.)\\]\\[[13](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=In%20October%202022%2C%20President%20Biden,later%2C%20they%E2%80%99ve%20changed%20their%20tune.)\\]. If the DEA accepts the recommendation, it would allow marijuana to be prescribed and treated similarly to other Schedule III substances, such as anabolic steroids and ketamine \\[[9](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=Marijuana%20is%20legal%20for%20medicinal,comparator%20drugs%2C%E2%80%9D%20the%20document%20said.)\\].\n\n\n## R1: Q2: What are the main arguments for and against removing cannabis from Schedule I at the federal level, and who are the primary stakeholders in each camp?\nAnswer:\nThe main arguments for removing cannabis from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act include its recognized medical uses and relatively low potential for abuse and dependence. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has acknowledged marijuana's medical benefits, citing extensive research and widespread doctor-recommended usage across the U.S. \\[[6](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=The%20extensive%20scientific%20review%20illuminates,category%20as%20heroin%20and%20LSD.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-cannabis-stocks-and-etfs-stand-to-benefit-if-the-biden-administration-reforms-marijuana-laws-887d8759#:~:text=To%20make%20a%20credible%20recommendation%2C,during%20the%20war%20on%20drugs.)\\]. Rescheduling cannabis would also allow businesses to deduct normal business expenses, significantly boosting cash flow for the cannabis industry \\[[3](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/01/biden-marijuana-fda-scheduling-fears-sklamberg-00132890#:~:text=What%20would%20be%20the%20benefits,Schedule%20III%20would%20allow%20that.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/03/1222600913/what-lowering-federal-restrictions-on-marijuana-could-mean#:~:text=Well%2C%20for%20a%20lot%20of,expenses%20items%20related%20to%20marijuana.)\\]. Additionally, the current classification is criticized for placing cannabis in the same category as more dangerous drugs like heroin and LSD \\[[6](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=The%20extensive%20scientific%20review%20illuminates,category%20as%20heroin%20and%20LSD.)\\].\n\nConversely, arguments against rescheduling include concerns about increased cannabis potency and usage, particularly among adolescents. Legalization has been associated with higher potency levels, which could exacerbate public health risks \\[[7](https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj.q1702.full?ijkey=PdtjbLizzzaCpF4&keytype=ref#:~:text=One%20reason%20is%20that%20they,of%2016%25%20in%20the%20UK.)\\]. Furthermore, there is a need for comprehensive federal legislation to address legal, regulatory, and safety issues, as current state laws are inconsistent \\[[8](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/03/1222600913/what-lowering-federal-restrictions-on-marijuana-could-mean#:~:text=There%20are%20state%20laws%20here,on%20FDA%20compliance%20and%20policy.)\\]\\[[14](https://www.npr.org/2024/01/03/1222600913/what-lowering-federal-restrictions-on-marijuana-could-mean#:~:text=It%27s%20illegal%20federally%2C%20but%20it%27s,Arnold%20%26amp%3B%20Porter%20law%20firm.)\\].\n\nPrimary stakeholders advocating for rescheduling include cannabis industry players, medical professionals recognizing its therapeutic benefits, and policymakers seeking tax reforms. Opponents include public health advocates concerned about abuse and those wary of the implications of increased potency and usage \\[[7](https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj.q1702.full?ijkey=PdtjbLizzzaCpF4&keytype=ref#:~:text=One%20reason%20is%20that%20they,of%2016%25%20in%20the%20UK.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-cannabis-stocks-and-etfs-stand-to-benefit-if-the-biden-administration-reforms-marijuana-laws-887d8759#:~:text=To%20make%20a%20credible%20recommendation%2C,during%20the%20war%20on%20drugs.)\\].\n\n\n## R1: Q3: What legislative or regulatory changes would be required to remove cannabis from Schedule I, and what is the current status of any bills or discussions on this topic in Congress?\nAnswer:\nTo remove cannabis from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act, a legislative or regulatory change is required. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has the authority to reschedule drugs, and any change in marijuana's classification would involve the DEA publishing a proposed rule to reschedule cannabis \\[[10](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/feb/20/kirsten-gillibrand/yes-the-federal-government-still-classifies-mariju/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1708454708-1#:~:text=If%20marijuana%20were%20to%20be,proposed%20rule%20to%20reschedule%20cannabis.)\\]. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has recommended rescheduling cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, acknowledging its accepted medical use and relatively low potential for abuse \\[[1](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/feb/20/kirsten-gillibrand/yes-the-federal-government-still-classifies-mariju/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1708454708-1#:~:text=In%20August%202023%2C%20the%20federal,relatively%20low%20potential%20for%20abuse.)\\]\\[[2](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/12/hhs-scientists-medical-marijuana-00135433#:~:text=The%20Drug%20Enforcement%20Administration%20will,the%20federal%20government%20views%20cannabis.)\\]. This recommendation marks a significant shift in the federal government's stance on cannabis.\n\nAs of now, the DEA has not set an official timeline for making a decision, but it is expected in the coming months \\[[6](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/12/hhs-scientists-medical-marijuana-00135433#:~:text=Bloomberg%20first%20reported%20in%20August,brought%20by%20Zorn%20and%20Pennington.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/feb/20/kirsten-gillibrand/yes-the-federal-government-still-classifies-mariju/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1708454708-1#:~:text=%28AP%29%20If%20Your%20Time%20is,an%20informed%20participant%20in%20democracy.)\\]. The rescheduling process would require the DEA to consider the state of current scientific knowledge, the drug's history and pattern of abuse, and its risk to public health \\[[5](https://www.thefdalawblog.com/2024/01/joint-basis-for-fda-hhs-marijuana-rescheduling-recommendation-unveiled/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=joint-basis-for-fda-hhs-marijuana-rescheduling-recommendation-unveiled#:~:text=The%20state%20of%20current%20scientific,The%20risk%20to%20public%20health.)\\]. The recommendation from HHS and the ongoing discussions indicate a potential shift in cannabis policy, but the final decision rests with the DEA.\n\n\n## R1: Q4: What is the current trend in public opinion regarding cannabis legalization at the federal level, and how has this changed over the past few years?\nAnswer:\nPublic opinion in the United States has shown a strong and consistent trend toward supporting cannabis legalization at the federal level. As of January 2024, a Pew Research Center survey found that an overwhelming majority of U.S. adults (88%) believe marijuana should be legal either for medical use only (32%) or for both medical and recreational use (57%) \\[[10](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/10/facts-about-marijuana/#:~:text=An%20overwhelming%20majority%20of%20U.S.,ethnicity%2C%20the%20January%20survey%20shows.)\\]\\[[14](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/10/facts-about-marijuana/#:~:text=Around%20nine%2Din%2Dten%20Americans%20say%20marijuana,over%20the%20past%20five%20years.)\\]. This level of support has remained relatively steady over the past five years \\[[10](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/10/facts-about-marijuana/#:~:text=An%20overwhelming%20majority%20of%20U.S.,ethnicity%2C%20the%20January%20survey%20shows.)\\]. Additionally, a Gallup poll from 2024 reported that 70% of Americans support the legalization of marijuana, marking a record high \\[[13](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lindseybartlett/2024/01/25/president-biden-needs-cannabis-to-win-in-2024-heres-why/?sh=a4458d37036b#:~:text=70%25%20of%20citizens%20believe%20weed,is%20a%20lot%20of%20people.)\\]. This increase in support is significant compared to earlier years, such as 2019, when two-thirds of adults supported legalization, which was already more than double the support from 2000 \\[[3](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/26/facts-about-marijuana/#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20the%20last%20time,involving%20drivers%20who%20use%20marijuana.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/13/facts-about-marijuana/?utm_content=buffer6e84c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer-pew#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20the%20last%20time,according%20to%20the%20same%20survey.)\\]. The trend indicates a growing acceptance of cannabis legalization across different demographics, although there are still notable differences in support based on age and political affiliation \\[[7](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/#:~:text=Over%20the%20long%20term%2C%20there,legalizing%20it%20for%20recreational%20purposes.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/#:~:text=This%20year%2C%2068%25%20of%20adults,both%20medical%20and%20recreational%20use.)\\].\n\n\n## R1: Q5: What are the implications of recent state-level legalization trends on federal cannabis policy, and have there been any recent federal responses or adjustments related to these trends?\nAnswer:\nRecent state-level legalization trends indicate a significant shift in public opinion and policy towards cannabis, which could influence federal cannabis policy. As of 2024, 24 states have legalized recreational marijuana, treating it similarly to alcohol, with regulations and taxation in place \\[[2](https://lifehacker.com/where-is-weed-legal-in-the-us#:~:text=Tim%20Walz%20signed%20a%20legalization,vary%20a%20bit%20by%20state.)\\]. Public support for cannabis legalization is strong, with approximately 70% of Americans in favor, a dramatic increase from the early 2000s when only about a third supported it \\[[5](https://split-ticket.org/2024/02/29/the-cannabis-consensus-marijuana-referendums-bridge-political-divides/#:~:text=Public%20opinion%20nationwide%20is%20now,place%20over%20the%20past%20decade.)\\]. This growing acceptance has led to bipartisan support in some states, as seen in Minnesota, where a legalization bill was signed into law with bipartisan backing \\[[7](https://lifehacker.com/where-is-weed-legal-in-the-us#:~:text=Minnesota%20%3A%20On%20May%2030%2C,and%20taxed%20by%20the%20government.)\\].\n\nAt the federal level, there have been notable responses to these state trends. The Department of Health and Human Services has recognized marijuana's accepted medical uses, prompting the Department of Justice to consider reclassifying marijuana from its current Schedule I status, which is reserved for substances with no accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse \\[[15](https://www.cnet.com/health/medical/us-government-moves-to-reclassify-weed-citing-medical-uses-what-to-know/#:~:text=It%27s%20been%20considered%20a%20schedule,with%20marijuana%27s%20actual%20risk%2Dbenefit%20profile.)\\]. This reclassification could align federal policy more closely with state-level legalizations and public opinion, potentially impacting the likelihood of cannabis being removed from Schedule I before 2025.\n\n\n\n## R1: B1: How often has the DEA reclassified a drug after receiving a rescheduling recommendation from the Department of Health and Human Services?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific historical data on how often the DEA has reclassified a drug after receiving a rescheduling recommendation from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). However, it is noted that the DEA's decision to reclassify a substance generally follows a scientific review and recommendation from HHS, as seen in the current context of cannabis rescheduling \\[[15](https://scarincihollenbeck.com/law-firm-insights/the-reclassification-of-marijuana#:~:text=%E2%80%9COnce%20published%20by%20the%20Federal,not%20expunge%20prior%20cannabis%20convictions.)\\]. The process involves a formal rulemaking procedure once the recommendation is published in the Federal Register \\[[15](https://scarincihollenbeck.com/law-firm-insights/the-reclassification-of-marijuana#:~:text=%E2%80%9COnce%20published%20by%20the%20Federal,not%20expunge%20prior%20cannabis%20convictions.)\\]. Historically, the DEA has been cautious in rescheduling drugs, often requiring substantial evidence of medical use and lower abuse potential, as indicated by the ongoing deliberations regarding cannabis \\[[14](https://www.mcglinchey.com/insights/what-is-the-timeline-for-rescheduling-marijuana/#:~:text=In%20the%20case%20of%20marijuana,next%20few%20months%2C%20not%20years.)\\]\\[[15](https://scarincihollenbeck.com/law-firm-insights/the-reclassification-of-marijuana#:~:text=%E2%80%9COnce%20published%20by%20the%20Federal,not%20expunge%20prior%20cannabis%20convictions.)\\]. \n\nFor a more precise historical analysis, additional research into DEA's past rescheduling actions and their outcomes would be necessary, as the current search results do not provide this specific information.\n\n\n## R1: B2: How often have drugs been reclassified from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act?\nAnswer:\nThe reclassification of drugs from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act is a rare occurrence. Historically, there have been very few instances of such reclassification. One notable example is the reclassification of dronabinol, a synthetic form of THC, which was moved from Schedule I to Schedule III in 1999. This process involves a formal rulemaking procedure, including public notice, comment, and potentially an administrative hearing, as outlined by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) \\[[5](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-submits-proposed-regulation-reschedule-marijuana#:~:text=The%20rescheduling%20of%20a%20controlled,can%20be%20found%20here%20.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/05/21/2024-11137/schedules-of-controlled-substances-rescheduling-of-marijuana#:~:text=All%20requests%20for%20a%20hearing,CFR%201308.44%28b%29%20%2C%201316.53%20.)\\]. The current proposal to reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III is undergoing a similar process, with the DEA soliciting public comments and conducting an economic impact analysis \\[[7](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/05/21/2024-11137/schedules-of-controlled-substances-rescheduling-of-marijuana#:~:text=DOJ%20specifically%20solicits%20written%20comments,scope%20of%20such%20impact.%20II.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2024/05/us-drug-enforcement-administration-proposes-reclassification#:~:text=1639o%29%2C%20because%20hemp%20was%20excluded,will%20develop%20a%20final%20rule.)\\].\n\n\n## R1: B3: How often has federal policy changed in response to widespread changes in state-level legislation within a similar timeframe?\nAnswer:\nFederal policy changes in response to widespread state-level legislation have occurred, but they are not frequent and often involve significant pressure or incentives. A notable example is the National Minimum Drinking Age Act of 1984, which required states to set the minimum legal drinking age to 21. States that did not comply faced a reduction in federal highway funds, which provided a strong incentive for states to align with federal policy despite the act not directly mandating a change \\[[13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Minimum_Drinking_Age_Act#:~:text=In%201984%2C%20the%20National%20Minimum,the%20drinking%20age%20to%2021.)\\]\\[[14](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Minimum_Drinking_Age_Act#:~:text=%C2%A7%20158%20%29%20was%20passed,their%20purchase%20or%20public%20possession.)\\]. This demonstrates that federal policy can change in response to state actions, but typically when there is a compelling federal interest or incentive.\n\nIn the context of cannabis, despite 33 states allowing medical use and about a dozen permitting recreational use, cannabis remains illegal at the federal level \\[[1](https://www.sltrib.com/news/health/2019/11/22/federal-addiction/#:~:text=%22%20It%27s%20the%20latest%20example,treat%20alcoholism%20and%20drug%20addiction.)\\]\\[[2](https://www.sltrib.com/news/health/2019/11/22/federal-addiction/#:~:text=While%20cannabis%20is%20considered%20an,and%20Mental%20Health%20Services%20Administration.)\\]. This indicates a slower federal response to state-level changes compared to the drinking age example. The federal government has maintained its stance on cannabis, even restricting federal addiction treatment funds from being used for marijuana-related treatments, highlighting the ongoing legal standoff between state and federal policies \\[[4](https://www.sltrib.com/news/health/2019/11/22/federal-addiction/#:~:text=Last%20week%2C%20federal%20officials%20held,losing%20federal%20money%2C%20McCance%2DKatz%20said.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.sltrib.com/news/health/2019/11/22/federal-addiction/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20government%20is%20barring,impression%20that%20it%27s%20a%20treatment.)\\]. This suggests that while federal policy can change in response to state actions, it often requires significant federal motivation or pressure, which has not yet been evident in the case of cannabis legalization.\n\n\n## R1: B4: How often has a drug been reclassified within a year after gaining significant medical acceptance?\nAnswer:\nThe reclassification of a drug within a year after gaining significant medical acceptance is a complex process and not commonly expedited. The Controlled Substances Act requires that a drug must meet specific criteria to be reclassified, including having a currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States and a lower potential for abuse compared to other substances in its current schedule \\[[1](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/812#:~:text=The%20schedules%20established%20by%20this,in%20the%20United%20States%20.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/812#:~:text=%28b%29%20Placement%20on%20schedules%3B%20findings,other%20substance%20under%20medical%20supervision.)\\]. Historically, the reclassification process involves thorough review and can be influenced by various factors, including scientific evidence, public health considerations, and regulatory procedures. \n\nWhile the schedules are updated annually, the actual reclassification of a drug can take longer due to the need for comprehensive evaluation and potential bureaucratic delays. For instance, the FDA may initiate reclassification or respond to petitions, but this involves a detailed review process and recommendations from a device classification panel before a final decision is made \\[[5](https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/cdrh-transparency/reclassification#:~:text=Under%20section%20513%28f%29%283%29%20of%20the,approving%20or%20denying%20the%20petition.)\\]\\[[6](https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/cdrh-transparency/reclassification#:~:text=As%20with%20the%20513%28e%29%20reclassification,presented%20by%20the%20device%20type.)\\]. Therefore, while reclassification within a year is possible, it is not typical without significant regulatory impetus and clear evidence supporting the change.\n\n\n## R1: B5: How often have changes in public opinion led to federal policy changes regarding drug classification?\nAnswer:\nChanges in public opinion have historically influenced federal policy changes regarding drug classification, but the process is often complex and not directly linear. For instance, the Marijuana Tax Act of 1937 was influenced by public perception and testimony that marijuana caused insanity and criminality, despite a lack of scientific evidence \\[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_United_States_drug_prohibition#:~:text=1937%3A%20Congress%20passed%20the%20Marijuana,caused%20insanity%2C%20criminality%2C%20and%20death.)\\]. More recently, the shift in public opinion towards the medical use of cannabis, as seen in increased media coverage of its benefits starting in the late 1990s, has contributed to policy changes at the state level, such as the legalization of medical marijuana in California in 1996 \\[[4](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2392124-the-seismic-shift-in-attitudes-toward-cannabis-explained-in-6-charts/?utm_campaign=RSS%7CNSNS&utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=RSS&utm_content=home#:~:text=In%201996%2C%20California%20became%20the,trafficking%20and%20abuse%20trended%20downward.)\\]. However, federal policy has been slower to change, with cannabis still classified as a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substances Act.\n\nThe legalization of marijuana in states like Colorado and Washington in 2012 reflects a significant shift in public opinion, but federal policy has not yet fully aligned with these changes \\[[6](https://theweedblog.com/history/illegal-drugs-timeline#:~:text=1986%20%3A%20President%20Ronald%20Reagan%E2%80%99s,Colorado%20and%20Washington%2C%20legalize%20marijuana.)\\]. This suggests that while public opinion can drive state-level policy changes, federal changes often require additional factors, such as political will and legislative action. The historical context shows that public opinion is a critical component but not the sole driver of federal drug policy changes.\n\n\n\n## R2: Q1: What recent statements or actions have key decision makers, such as the President or the Attorney General, made regarding the reclassification of cannabis?\nAnswer:\nRecent developments indicate significant movement towards the reclassification of cannabis in the United States. The Biden administration has proposed shifting cannabis from a Schedule I to a Schedule III controlled substance, which would categorize it alongside drugs like ketamine and anabolic steroids, recognized for having a lower potential for abuse \\[[9](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69022400#:~:text=%22%20The%20administration%27s%20proposal%20would,anabolic%20steroids%2C%20ketamine%20and%20testosterone.)\\]. This proposal follows the Drug Enforcement Administration's (DEA) approval of a federal health agency's recommendation to reclassify marijuana, a move that has been described as unprecedented due to its initiation by the current administration rather than third parties \\[[1](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/04/30/marijuana-restrictions-loosen/#:~:text=It%20follows%20the%20Drug%20Enforcement,Tuesday%20by%20the%20Associated%20Press.)\\]\\[[10](https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahsinclair/2024/01/18/dea-considers-rescheduling-cannabis-what-this-means-for-us-and-global-reform/#:~:text=The%20DEA%20has%20repeatedly%20claimed,DEA%20had%20made%20its%20call.)\\]. The Justice Department has submitted a formal recommendation to the White House, and the Office of Management and Budget is currently reviewing the measure \\[[2](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/04/30/marijuana-restrictions-loosen/#:~:text=The%20Justice%20Department%20submitted%20the,has%20a%20chance%20to%20comment.)\\]. If accepted, the proposal will be published for public comment, although it will not take effect immediately \\[[1](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/04/30/marijuana-restrictions-loosen/#:~:text=It%20follows%20the%20Drug%20Enforcement,Tuesday%20by%20the%20Associated%20Press.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/04/30/marijuana-restrictions-loosen/#:~:text=The%20White%20House%E2%80%99s%20Office%20of,White%20House%20declined%20to%20comment.)\\].\n\nThis reclassification effort is seen as a potential political win for the Biden administration, particularly among younger voters, and aligns with Vice President Harris's recent advocacy for marijuana reform \\[[12](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/04/30/marijuana-restrictions-loosen/#:~:text=%29%20said%20in%20a%20statement,to%20get%20federal%20business%20loans.)\\]. The public comment period on this reclassification ended in July 2024, with a significant 43,000 comments submitted, and a hearing on the proposed rule change was scheduled for December 2, 2024 \\[[11](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/harris-the-pro-cannabis-candidate-the-industry-isnt-convinced.html#:~:text=%22%20The%20Biden%20administration%20said,more%20details%20on%20future%20proposals.)\\]. These actions suggest a strong possibility of cannabis being removed from Schedule I before 2025, pending the completion of the administrative process and public feedback.\n\n\n## R2: Q2: What are the current views and positions of influential advocacy groups and lobbyists on cannabis reclassification?\nAnswer:\nInfluential advocacy groups and lobbyists have varied positions on the reclassification of cannabis. Some advocates argue for rescheduling cannabis to reduce the punitive measures historically associated with its classification, which have disproportionately affected minority communities. This perspective is highlighted by calls to either reschedule cannabis or even abolish the DEA due to its role in perpetuating these issues \\[[4](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/01/36632145/reschedule-cannabis-or-abolish-the-dea-says-physician-examining-the-50-year-old-trillion-dollar-#:~:text=%22We%20could%20arrest%20their%20leaders%2C,continues%20to%20target%20minority%20communities.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/01/36632145/reschedule-cannabis-or-abolish-the-dea-says-physician-examining-the-50-year-old-trillion-dollar-#:~:text=Did%20we%20know%20we%20were,this%20useless%20war%20on%20cannabis%3F)\\]. On the other hand, opponents like Rep. Andy Harris express concerns about the potential public health impacts of reclassification, such as increased addiction rates and traffic fatalities, and criticize the FDA for not thoroughly comparing cannabis to other Schedule I drugs \\[[3](https://www.delmarvanow.com/story/news/local/maryland/2024/02/08/move-to-reclassify-marijuana-draws-ire-of-rep-andy-harris/72509662007/#:~:text=%22The%20recommendation%20%28to%20reassess%20marijuana%29,drugs%20that%20appear%20more%20harmful.)\\]. These contrasting views reflect the ongoing debate and the complexity of the issue, which could influence the likelihood of cannabis being removed from Schedule I before 2025.\n\n\n## R2: Q3: What is the current public opinion on cannabis legalization and how has it changed over recent years?\nAnswer:\nCurrent public opinion in the United States strongly favors cannabis legalization. According to a Pew Research survey, a significant majority of Americans support the legalization of marijuana for both medical and recreational use. Specifically, 60% of moderate and liberal Republicans and 63% of conservative and moderate Democrats are in favor, with an overwhelming 84% of liberal Democrats supporting legalization \\[[15](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/#:~:text=Ideological%20differences%20are%20evident%20within,Democrats%20%2884%25%29%20say%20the%20same.)\\]. This trend reflects a broader shift in public opinion over recent years, with increasing bipartisan support for cannabis reform. This growing public consensus could influence legislative actions regarding the removal of cannabis from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2025.\n\n\n## R2: Q4: What are the potential economic impacts of removing cannabis from Schedule I, and how might these impact legislative decisions?\nAnswer:\nRemoving cannabis from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act could have significant economic impacts, which may influence legislative decisions. The cannabis industry is projected to add $100 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023, with substantial contributions from both direct and indirect sources \\[[3](https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-industry-will-add-100-billion-to-us-economy-in-2023/#:~:text=That%20impact%20comes%20directly%20from,broader%20demand%20for%20commercial%20properties.)\\]. For instance, cannabis businesses and consumers pay hundreds of millions in state and local taxes, which fund government activities such as schools and roads \\[[6](https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-industry-will-add-100-billion-to-us-economy-in-2023/#:~:text=Marijuana%20businesses%2C%20consumers%20and%20patients,legalization%20across%20the%20United%20States.)\\]. Additionally, the industry supports a wide range of jobs, from agriculture to retail, and boosts real estate markets by increasing demand for commercial properties \\[[3](https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-industry-will-add-100-billion-to-us-economy-in-2023/#:~:text=That%20impact%20comes%20directly%20from,broader%20demand%20for%20commercial%20properties.)\\]\\[[6](https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-industry-will-add-100-billion-to-us-economy-in-2023/#:~:text=Marijuana%20businesses%2C%20consumers%20and%20patients,legalization%20across%20the%20United%20States.)\\].\n\nThe economic multiplier effect of the cannabis industry is notable; for every $1 spent at retail locations, an additional $2 is injected into the economy, much of it at the local level \\[[9](https://mjbizdaily.com/us-marijuana-industry-100-billion-economic-impact-varies-by-state/#:~:text=The%20marijuana%20industry%E2%80%99s%20unique%20structure,it%20at%20the%20local%20level.)\\]. This impact varies by state, with some states like Alaska seeing an economic impact of $1,431 per person, while others like California contribute $450 per person \\[[2](https://mjbizdaily.com/us-marijuana-industry-100-billion-economic-impact-varies-by-state/#:~:text=If%20we%20consider%20the%20total,resident%20into%20their%20respective%20states.)\\]\\[[4](https://mjbizdaily.com/us-marijuana-industry-100-billion-economic-impact-varies-by-state/#:~:text=Alaska%2C%20for%20example%2C%20will%20deliver,sources%20%2D%20direct%20and%20indirect.)\\]. These economic benefits could incentivize legislators to support the removal of cannabis from Schedule I, as it could lead to increased tax revenues and job creation, potentially swaying legislative decisions in favor of legalization.\n\n\n## R2: Q5: Have there been any recent legislative or regulatory proposals at the federal level regarding cannabis reclassification, and what is their current status?\nAnswer:\nIn August 2024, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recommended that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III substance. This recommendation marks the first time the HHS has publicly acknowledged marijuana's medical use, which could significantly impact its legal status and regulatory framework. However, as of now, the DEA has not yet acted on this recommendation \\[[3](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=This%20is%20the%20first%20time,to%20act%20on%20the%20recommendation.)\\]. This development is crucial as it indicates a potential shift in federal policy regarding cannabis, which could influence the likelihood of its removal from Schedule I before 2025.\n\n\n\n## R2: B1: How often has the DEA reclassified a Schedule I drug to a lower schedule in the last 50 years?\nAnswer:\nIn the last 50 years, the DEA has not reclassified any Schedule I drug to a lower schedule. Schedule I drugs are defined as having a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_cannabis_from_Schedule_I_of_the_Controlled_Substances_Act#:~:text=Under%2021%20U.S.C.%20%C2%A7%20812,other%20substance%20under%20medical%20supervision.)\\]\\[[5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_cannabis_from_Schedule_I_of_the_Controlled_Substances_Act#:~:text=%C2%A7%20812%20%2C%20drugs%20must,Health%20Roger%20O.%20Egeberg%20.)\\]\\[[13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_cannabis_from_Schedule_I_of_the_Controlled_Substances_Act#:~:text=The%20category%20is%20the%20most,treatment%20in%20the%20United%20States.)\\]. This stringent classification makes it challenging for drugs to be reclassified without substantial evidence of medical benefit and safety, which has historically been difficult to achieve for substances initially placed in Schedule I.\n\n\n## R2: B2: How often has federal classification of a substance been changed after a majority of states have legalized it for recreational use?\nAnswer:\nThe federal classification of a substance has not historically been changed after a majority of states have legalized it for recreational use. The Controlled Substances Act (CSA) has been in place since 1970, and marijuana has remained a Schedule I substance despite significant state-level legalization efforts. As of 2024, cannabis is still classified as a Schedule I drug, although there are ongoing efforts to reschedule it to Schedule III, which would acknowledge its medical value \\[[1](https://www.mpp.org/policy/federal/dea-moves-to-reschedule-marijuana-to-schedule-iii-questions-and-answers/#:~:text=There%E2%80%99s%20been%20a%20lot%20of,is%20less%20dangerous%20than%20opiates.)\\]\\[[11](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/30/biden-weed-restriction-policies-00133123#:~:text=Heroin%20is%20in%20the%20same,The%20DOJ%20declined%20to%20comment.)\\]. This situation is unique because no other substance has seen such widespread state-level legalization while remaining federally classified as Schedule I. The federal government has typically maintained its classification unless there is a significant shift in federal policy or scientific consensus, which has not yet occurred for cannabis \\[[9](https://www.findlaw.com/criminal/criminal-charges/federal-marijuana-laws.html#:~:text=Such%20federal%20authority%20pre%2Dempts%20state,marijuana%20at%20the%20state%20level.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/09/25-states-now-call-marijuana-medicine-why-doesnt-the-dea/#:~:text=And%20it%20appears%20to%20have,a%20high%20potential%20for%20abuse.)\\].\n\n\n## R2: B3: How often have presidential administrations proposed reclassifying a Schedule I drug and succeeded within a year?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not directly address the historical frequency of presidential administrations proposing and succeeding in reclassifying a Schedule I drug within a year. However, based on historical context, it is important to note that reclassification of Schedule I drugs is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders, including the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and sometimes Congress. Historically, there have been very few instances where a Schedule I drug has been reclassified quickly, as the process typically involves extensive review and consideration of scientific evidence regarding the drug's safety and medical use.\n\nFor example, the reclassification of synthetic THC (Marinol) from Schedule I to Schedule III took several years and involved significant scientific and regulatory review \\[[12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Removal_of_cannabis_from_Schedule_I_of_the_Controlled_Substances_Act#:~:text=The%20drug%20or%20other%20substance,other%20substances%20in%20schedule%20III.)\\]. This suggests that while reclassification is possible, achieving it within a year is rare and would likely require strong political will and clear scientific consensus supporting the change.\n\n\n## R2: B4: How often have significant public opinion shifts led to changes in federal drug policy over the last 50 years?\nAnswer:\nOver the past 50 years, significant shifts in public opinion have occasionally led to changes in federal drug policy, though the process is often complex and influenced by multiple factors. For instance, the increasing public support for cannabis legalization has been partly attributed to the media's portrayal of marijuana as a medical issue, which began in the late 1990s. This shift in media framing coincided with a rise in public support for legalization, suggesting a potential influence of media on public opinion and subsequent policy changes \\[[8](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/why-so-many-americans-now-support-legalizing-marijuana-in-4-charts#:~:text=Support%20for%20legalization%20began%20to,that%20discussed%20its%20medical%20uses.)\\]\\[[12](http://theconversation.com/why-do-so-many-americans-now-support-legalizing-marijuana-110593#:~:text=Support%20for%20legalization%20began%20to,or%20other%20Schedule%20I%20drugs.)\\]. \n\nHistorically, public opinion on cannabis has shifted significantly. In the late 1960s to early 1990s, support for legalization fluctuated between 12% and 27%. However, since the early 1990s, support has increased steadily by approximately 1.5 percentage points per year \\[[6](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0049089X17310232#:~:text=Americans%E2%80%99%20attitudes%20about%20cannabis%20legalization,the%20punitiveness%20of%20state%20laws.)\\]. This growing support has been reflected in the changing punitiveness of state laws, although federal policy has been slower to adapt. The case of cannabis illustrates that while public opinion shifts can influence drug policy, changes at the federal level often lag behind state-level reforms and broader societal attitudes.\n\n\n## R2: B5: How often has a federal reclassification of a drug occurred within a year after significant economic implications were highlighted?\nAnswer:\nFederal reclassification of drugs, particularly those with significant economic implications, is a complex process that involves multiple agencies and considerations. Historically, the reclassification of drugs has not been directly tied to economic implications alone. For instance, the scheduling of drugs like marijuana is influenced by factors such as potential for abuse, scientific evidence of pharmacological effects, and medical use, as determined by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) \\[[9](https://www.vox.com/2014/9/25/6842187/drug-schedule-list-marijuana#:~:text=Among%20the%20factors%3A%20a%20drug%27s,carried%20out%20in%20the%20past.)\\]. \n\nThere is no specific historical precedent indicating that significant economic implications alone have led to a federal reclassification of a drug within a year. The process is typically rigorous and involves scientific and medical evaluations, which can be lengthy. For example, despite the economic benefits observed in states that have legalized marijuana, such as increased tax revenues and reduced criminal justice expenditures \\[[3](https://www.cato.org/tax-budget-bulletin/budgetary-effects-ending-drug-prohibition#:~:text=First%2C%20the%20tax%20revenues%20generated,rather%20than%20reduce%20those%20expenditures.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.cato.org/tax-budget-bulletin/budgetary-effects-ending-drug-prohibition#:~:text=The%20implications%20of%20these%20initial,use%2C%20according%20to%20survey%20data.)\\], marijuana remains a Schedule I drug at the federal level due to its classification as having no accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse \\[[13](https://www.vox.com/2014/8/7/5967239/marijuana-legalization-drug-schedule-DEA-FDA-HHS#:~:text=The%20nonmedical%20group%20comprises%20the,moral%20fabric%20of%20the%20country.)\\]. This suggests that while economic factors are considered, they are not the primary drivers of reclassification decisions.\n\n\n\n## R3: Q1: What recent developments or statements have been made by key decision makers in the federal government regarding cannabis reclassification?\nAnswer:\nRecent developments regarding the reclassification of cannabis in the United States indicate significant movement towards changing its status under the Controlled Substances Act. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has concluded that marijuana has accepted medical uses, which has prompted the Department of Justice (DOJ) to consider changing its scheduling. This shift is seen as historic because it moves away from the previous classification of marijuana as a Schedule I drug, which is reserved for substances with no medical use and a high potential for abuse \\[[6](https://www.cnet.com/health/medical/us-government-moves-to-reclassify-weed-citing-medical-uses-what-to-know/#:~:text=Drugs%20are%20scheduled%20%2C%20in,this%20change%20mean%20for%20consumers%3F)\\]. \n\nFurthermore, federal scientists have recommended easing restrictions on marijuana, suggesting it is neither as risky nor as prone to abuse as other tightly controlled substances and acknowledging its potential medical benefits. This recommendation was detailed in a 250-page scientific review, which was confirmed by an HHS official \\[[9](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/12/health/marijuana-fda-dea.html#:~:text=Marijuana%20is%20neither%20as%20risky,the%20authenticity%20of%20the%20document.)\\]. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) will have the final authority to make any changes to marijuana\u2019s scheduling, and it will undergo a rulemaking process that includes public comments before any action is finalized \\[[13](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/12/health/marijuana-rescheduling-fda-review/index.html?Date=20240113&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1705115585&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter#:~:text=Twenty%2Dfour%20states%2C%20two%20territories%20and,Wallace%20contributed%20to%20this%20report.)\\]. These developments suggest a strong possibility of reclassification, potentially to Schedule III, which would align marijuana more closely with other drugs used for medicinal purposes \\[[12](https://www.cnet.com/health/medical/us-government-moves-to-reclassify-weed-citing-medical-uses-what-to-know/#:~:text=The%20move%20would%20align%20marijuana,before%20keto%20made%20it%20cool.)\\].\n\n\n## R3: Q2: What is the current public opinion on cannabis legalization at the federal level, and how has it changed over the past few years?\nAnswer:\nCurrent public opinion on cannabis legalization at the federal level in the United States shows strong support for legalization. According to a Pew Research survey, there has been a significant increase in public support over the years, with a majority of Americans now favoring the legalization of marijuana for both medical and recreational use \\[[3](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/#:~:text=The%20survey%20is%20weighted%20to,for%20recreational%20or%20medical%20use.)\\]. Specifically, ideological differences exist within political parties, with 84% of liberal Democrats supporting legalization compared to 37% of conservative Republicans \\[[6](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/#:~:text=Ideological%20differences%20are%20evident%20within,Democrats%20%2884%25%29%20say%20the%20same.)\\]. This trend indicates a broad and growing acceptance of cannabis legalization across different demographics and political affiliations.\n\nThis shift in public opinion is crucial for forecasting the potential removal of cannabis from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2025. The increasing public support could influence policymakers and legislative actions, potentially impacting the likelihood of federal legalization efforts.\n\n\n## R3: Q3: What are the legal and procedural steps required for a substance to be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act?\nAnswer:\nTo remove a substance from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act, several legal and procedural steps are required. First, a petition can be submitted to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) by any interested party, including the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which can also initiate the process. The DEA then requests a scientific and medical evaluation from the HHS, which includes a recommendation on whether the substance should be rescheduled or removed from the schedule entirely. This evaluation considers factors such as the substance's potential for abuse, accepted medical use, and safety under medical supervision \\[[3](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=This%20is%20the%20first%20time,to%20act%20on%20the%20recommendation.)\\]\\[[14](https://learnaboutsam.org/2024/05/marijuana-rescheduling/#:~:text=On%20April%2030%2C%202024%2C%20the,and%20issue%20a%20final%20rule.)\\].\n\nOnce the HHS provides its recommendation, the DEA conducts its own review and decides whether to initiate a rulemaking process. If the DEA decides to proceed, it publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register, allowing for a public comment period. The DEA must consider these comments before issuing a final rule. If the final rule supports rescheduling or descheduling, the substance's classification is officially changed \\[[14](https://learnaboutsam.org/2024/05/marijuana-rescheduling/#:~:text=On%20April%2030%2C%202024%2C%20the,and%20issue%20a%20final%20rule.)\\]. In the case of cannabis, the HHS has recommended rescheduling it to Schedule III, acknowledging its medical use, which marks a significant shift in federal policy \\[[3](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=This%20is%20the%20first%20time,to%20act%20on%20the%20recommendation.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/12/marijuana-rescheduling-schedule-3-health-risk/#:~:text=The%20extensive%20scientific%20review%20illuminates,category%20as%20heroin%20and%20LSD.)\\].\n\n\n## R3: Q4: How have similar substances historically been reclassified from Schedule I, and what were the catalysts for those changes?\nAnswer:\nHistorically, the reclassification of substances from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act has been influenced by evolving scientific research and changing societal attitudes. For instance, the recent recommendation by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III was driven by findings that marijuana has medicinal purposes, such as treating symptoms associated with anorexia, cancer, and chronic pain \\[[1](https://www.cnet.com/health/medical/us-government-moves-to-reclassify-weed-citing-medical-uses-what-to-know/#:~:text=%22My%20hope%20is%20that%20going,medical%20marijuana%20in%20the%20US.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.cnet.com/health/medical/us-government-moves-to-reclassify-weed-citing-medical-uses-what-to-know/#:~:text=But%20it%20is%20a%20step,chronic%20pain%2C%20particularly%20neuropathic%20pain.)\\]. This recommendation followed President Joe Biden's directive to review marijuana's classification, indicating a significant shift in federal perspective \\[[7](https://theweek.com/drugs/1026301/rescheduling-cannabis-drug-classification#:~:text=Last%20week%2C%20the%20HHS%20recommended,what%20that%20reclassification%20could%20mean.)\\].\n\nA key catalyst for reclassification is the accumulation of scientific evidence supporting the medical benefits of a substance. For cannabis, there has been a substantial increase in research, with nearly 42,000 studies on cannabis now available, over half of which were published in the last decade \\[[3](https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/3698458-cannabis-must-be-removed-from-the-controlled-substances-act/#:~:text=Prior%20to%201970%2C%20there%20were,just%20within%20the%20past%20decade.)\\]. This growing body of evidence, combined with the practical challenges faced by researchers due to the stringent requirements for studying Schedule I substances, has fueled calls for reclassification \\[[2](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/11/22/marijuana-rescheduling-research-penalties/#:~:text=Experts%20say%20it%E2%80%99s%20imperative%20to,expensive%20and%20burdensome%20to%20follow.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/11/22/marijuana-rescheduling-research-penalties/#:~:text=To%20gain%20access%20to%20pot%2C,researcher%20at%20Johns%20Hopkins%20Medicine.)\\]. The potential economic benefits for the cannabis industry, such as the ability to deduct business expenses if reclassified to Schedule III, also play a role in the push for change \\[[11](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2023/08/30/hhs-recommends-marijuana-reclassified/#:~:text=State%2Dregulated%20marijuana%20industries%20boomed%20during,really%20been%20suffering%2C%E2%80%9D%20Thorne%20said.)\\].\n\n\n## R3: Q5: What impact might the upcoming 2024 elections have on the likelihood of cannabis being reclassified at the federal level?\nAnswer:\nThe 2024 elections could significantly impact the likelihood of cannabis being reclassified at the federal level, primarily depending on the political landscape that emerges. Kamala Harris, a major Democratic candidate, has explicitly stated her support for federal cannabis legalization, having sponsored related legislation as a U.S. senator and making it a part of her campaign platform \\[[4](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/kamala-harris-rolls-out-marijuana-legalization-plan-pledging-to-make-it-the-law-of-the-land/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CActually%20this%20is%20not%20a,reforms%20like%20cannabis%20banking%20protections.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/kamala-harris-is-the-first-major-presidential-candidate-to-back-marijuana-legalization-op-ed/#:~:text=And%20in%202019%2C%20Harris%E2%80%94then%20California%E2%80%99s,be%20incarcerated%20for%20marijuana%20use.)\\]. If Harris wins the presidency and Democrats gain control of Congress, the chances of cannabis being removed from Schedule I could increase, as more Democrats in Congress could facilitate passing federal reforms \\[[15](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/kamala-harris-says-we-need-to-legalize-marijuana-for-first-time-as-democratic-presidential-nominee/#:~:text=Earlier%20this%20month%2C%20Democratic%20vice,might%20be%20easier%20to%20address.)\\].\n\nConversely, Republican candidates like Nikki Haley and Donald Trump have expressed views that cannabis legalization should be decided at the state level rather than federally \\[[2](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/01/36623553/donald-trump-nikki-haley-and-ron-desantis-where-do-they-stand-on-cannabis-legalization-these-day#:~:text=Haley%20has%20said%20all%20along,full%20federal%20legalization%20of%20cannabis.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/01/36623553/donald-trump-nikki-haley-and-ron-desantis-where-do-they-stand-on-cannabis-legalization-these-day#:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20where%20people%20can%20show,cannabis%20sellers%20as%20drug%20dealers.)\\]. Trump's previous administration upheld federal prohibition, and his stance on drug dealers suggests a more conservative approach \\[[5](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/01/36623553/donald-trump-nikki-haley-and-ron-desantis-where-do-they-stand-on-cannabis-legalization-these-day#:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20where%20people%20can%20show,cannabis%20sellers%20as%20drug%20dealers.)\\]. Therefore, if a Republican candidate wins the presidency, the likelihood of federal reclassification may decrease. The outcome of the 2024 elections, particularly the balance of power in Congress, will be crucial in determining the future of cannabis policy at the federal level.\n\n\n\n## R3: B1: How often have substances been removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before a presidential election year?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific historical data on the frequency of substances being removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act, particularly in relation to the timing before a presidential election year. However, they do provide insights into the criteria and processes for scheduling substances, which include a high potential for abuse, no accepted medical use, and a lack of safety under medical supervision \\[[2](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2016/09/27/2016-23183/schedules-of-controlled-substances-temporary-placement-of-furanyl-fentanyl-into-schedule-i#:~:text=811%28h%29%281%29%20.%20Substances%20in%20schedule,supervision.%2021%20U.S.C.%20812%28b%29%281%29%20.)\\]\\[[14](https://web.archive.org/web/20140810213553/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Schedule_I_drugs_(US)#:~:text=The%20following%20findings%20are%20required,or%20dispense%2C%20a%20counterfeit%20substance.)\\]. Temporary scheduling actions are often taken to address imminent public safety hazards, as seen with synthetic cannabinoids and other substances \\[[1](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2011/03/01/2011-4428/schedules-of-controlled-substances-temporary-placement-of-five-synthetic-cannabinoids-into-schedule#:~:text=The%20materials%20have%20been%20marketed,to%20the%20order%20taking%20effect.)\\]\\[[3](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2011/03/01/2011-4428/schedules-of-controlled-substances-temporary-placement-of-five-synthetic-cannabinoids-into-schedule#:~:text=811%28h%29%283%29%20.%20The%20temporary%20placement,possessing%20or%20using%20synthetic%20cannabinoids.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2016/08/31/2016-20803/schedules-of-controlled-substances-temporary-placement-of-mitragynine-and-7-hydroxymitragynine-into#:~:text=Because%20the%20Administrator%20hereby%20finds,of%20publication%20of%20this%20notice.)\\].\n\nTo address the question more directly, historical context from external sources indicates that substances are rarely removed from Schedule I. The process is complex and involves significant regulatory and political considerations. For example, cannabis remains a Schedule I substance despite ongoing debates and state-level legalizations. The removal of a substance from Schedule I typically requires substantial evidence of medical use and safety, alongside shifts in public and political opinion, which can be influenced by upcoming elections but are not directly tied to them.\n\n\n## R3: B2: How often has public support for a drug's legalization correlated with its reclassification from Schedule I in the last 50 years in the US?\nAnswer:\nIn the last 50 years, public support for a drug's legalization has shown a significant correlation with its reclassification from Schedule I, particularly in the case of marijuana. Public support for marijuana legalization has increased dramatically, from 25% in 1995 to 68% in recent years \\[[4](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/#:~:text=Read%20more%20about%20the%20ATP%E2%80%99s,legalization%20Gallup%20found%20in%202021.)\\]\\[[14](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8152576/#:~:text=Published%20in%20final%20edited%20form,generate%20tax%20revenue%20from%20marijuana.)\\]. This rise in public support has coincided with legislative changes, such as the legalization of marijuana for recreational use in multiple states and the federal government's more lenient stance on marijuana-related offenses \\[[11](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/#:~:text=These%20views%20are%20virtually%20unchanged,the%20legal%20status%20of%20marijuana.)\\]\\[[14](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8152576/#:~:text=Published%20in%20final%20edited%20form,generate%20tax%20revenue%20from%20marijuana.)\\]. However, despite high public support, marijuana remains classified as a Schedule I substance at the federal level, indicating that while public opinion is influential, it is not the sole factor in reclassification decisions. The transition from medical to nonmedical legalization has been facilitated by public support, voter initiatives, and the establishment of a marijuana industry, which have collectively contributed to the changing legal landscape \\[[14](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8152576/#:~:text=Published%20in%20final%20edited%20form,generate%20tax%20revenue%20from%20marijuana.)\\].\n\n\n## R3: B3: How often has a federal recommendation to reschedule a drug led to actual reclassification within a year?\nAnswer:\nThe question of how often a federal recommendation to reschedule a drug leads to actual reclassification within a year is complex, as it involves multiple steps and stakeholders, including the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and sometimes the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Historically, the process of rescheduling a drug can be lengthy and is not guaranteed to result in reclassification within a year. For instance, the DEA has scheduled hearings for regulatory proposals of major public interest, which can delay the process, as seen with the current proposal to reschedule cannabis \\[[2](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-schedules-hearing-on-marijuana-rescheduling-proposal-delaying-final-rule/#:~:text=The%20Drug%20Enforcement%20Administration%20%28DEA%29,the%20Federal%20Register%20on%20Thursday.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-schedules-hearing-on-marijuana-rescheduling-proposal-delaying-final-rule/#:~:text=Now%20that%20DEA%20has%20reviewed,ago%20evidently%20met%20that%20standard.)\\]. \n\nMoreover, the DEA's decision-making process often involves public comment periods and administrative hearings, which can extend the timeline significantly. In the case of cannabis, the DEA agreed to an administrative hearing after receiving over 40,000 public comments, further delaying the final rulemaking \\[[9](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-schedules-hearing-on-marijuana-rescheduling-proposal-delaying-final-rule/#:~:text=After%20moving%20to%20reclassify%20cannabis,proposals%20of%20major%20public%20interest.)\\]. This suggests that even with a federal recommendation, the actual reclassification within a year is not common, especially for drugs with significant public and political interest like cannabis.\n\n\n## R3: B4: How often have state-level legal changes in drug policy influenced federal reclassification decisions in the US over the past 50 years?\nAnswer:\nOver the past 50 years, state-level legal changes in drug policy have had a significant but indirect influence on federal reclassification decisions in the U.S. While federal marijuana prohibition has remained unchanged, state reforms have led to a dramatic shift in federal enforcement practices. For instance, federal sentences for marijuana offenses decreased by 83% from 2012 to 2020, largely due to state-level legalization efforts \\[[5](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3965571#:~:text=But%20by%202020%2C%20though%20the,been%20legalized%20for%20various%20purposes.)\\]\\[[14](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3965571#:~:text=This%20essay%20seeks%20to%20document,with%20other%20races%20at%205%25.)\\]. This suggests that while state actions have not directly prompted federal reclassification, they have influenced federal enforcement priorities and practices.\n\nMoreover, the widespread adoption of medical marijuana laws at the state level has smoothed the transition to broader legalization, demonstrating the efficacy of voter initiatives and creating a visible marijuana industry \\[[13](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8152576/#:~:text=Published%20in%20final%20edited%20form,generate%20tax%20revenue%20from%20marijuana.)\\]. This state-level momentum has not yet resulted in federal reclassification, but it has pressured federal authorities to adapt enforcement strategies, indicating a potential pathway for future federal policy changes.\n\n\n## R3: B5: How often has bipartisan public opinion shifted federal drug policy in the past 50 years?\nAnswer:\nIn the past 50 years, bipartisan public opinion has occasionally influenced federal drug policy, but such shifts are relatively rare and often require significant political and social momentum. One notable example is the Hatch-Waxman Act of 1984, which was a bipartisan effort that significantly impacted the pharmaceutical industry by balancing the interests of brand-name and generic drug manufacturers \\[[1](https://drugstorenews.com/pharmacy/hatch-waxman-act-30-years-later-landmark-compromise-still-resonates#:~:text=Perhaps%20remarkably%2C%20both%20lawmakers%20are,part%20of%20their%20legislative%20legacy.)\\]\\[[4](https://drugstorenews.com/pharmacy/hatch-waxman-act-30-years-later-landmark-compromise-still-resonates#:~:text=%28Click%20here%20to%20view%20the,of%20the%20Generic%20Pharmaceutical%20Association.)\\]. However, this was more about pharmaceutical regulation than drug scheduling.\n\nRegarding cannabis, public opinion has shifted dramatically over the years. As of January 2024, a Pew Research Center survey found that 88% of U.S. adults support the legalization of marijuana for either medical or recreational use, with only 11% opposing legalization in any form \\[[7](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/10/facts-about-marijuana/#:~:text=Around%20nine%2Din%2Dten%20Americans%20say%20marijuana,over%20the%20past%20five%20years.)\\]. This overwhelming public support is a significant factor that could influence federal policy, especially considering that marijuana legalization is an exception to the typical slow pace of policy change in response to public opinion \\[[11](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/briefing/americas-embrace-of-marijuana.html#:~:text=This%20is%20typical%20for%20most,patience%20while%20we%20verify%20access.)\\]. However, despite strong public support, federal rescheduling of cannabis has not yet occurred, indicating that while public opinion is crucial, it is not the sole determinant of policy change.\n\n\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** There are approximately 10 days left until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed:** Given the current trajectory, if nothing changes, it seems likely that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I. The Department of Health and Human Services has already recommended rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III, and the decision is pending with the DEA.\n\n(c) **Important factors influencing a successful/unsuccessful resolution:**\n- **DEA Decision:** The DEA has the authority to act on the HHS recommendation, and their decision is crucial. The DEA's historical caution in rescheduling drugs could play a role.\n- **Political Climate and Pressure:** The current administration's stance, public opinion, and pressure from stakeholders could influence the DEA's decision.\n- **Scientific Evidence and HHS Recommendation:** The robust scientific review supporting marijuana's medical use is significant. If the DEA finds the evidence compelling, it could lead to rescheduling.\n- **Bureaucratic Processes:** The DEA's rulemaking process can be lengthy and complex, which might delay the decision.\n\n(d) **Unknowns that could lower confidence:**\n- **DEA Timeline:** The exact timeline for the DEA's decision is unclear. Without a set deadline, there's uncertainty about whether they will act before the end of the year.\n- **Potential Political or Legal Challenges:** Unexpected political or legal challenges could arise, stalling the process.\n- **Internal DEA Dynamics:** Internal dynamics or priorities within the DEA that are not publicly known could affect the decision.\n\n(e) **Forecast using historical precedent:** Historically, the DEA has been cautious in rescheduling drugs, and changes in classification don't happen frequently. If relying solely on historical precedent, the probability of rescheduling within a short timeframe would be lower.\n\n(f) **Forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left (2.5 days):** With only a few days remaining, if no new information emerged, my confidence in rescheduling happening by the deadline would decrease due to the limited time for the DEA to complete its decision-making process.\n\n(g) **Forecast if there was 4x the time left (40 days):** With more time, the probability would increase, assuming current trends continue, as it would provide the DEA with more time to finalize the decision and complete any necessary procedural steps.\n\n**Rationale:** Given the significant steps taken by HHS and the existing political climate, there is a strong momentum towards rescheduling. However, the final decision rests with the DEA, and the short timeframe adds uncertainty. The historical precedent of caution and thorough processes by the DEA suggests a conservative outlook, but the substantial external pressure and recommendations from HHS provide optimism.\n\n**Final Answer:** Probability: 70%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\nTo tackle this question, I'll address each of the components you've outlined:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** As of today, December 21, 2024, there are only 10 days left before January 1, 2025. This implies that any action to reclassify cannabis would need to be completed within this very short timeframe.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:** If no action is taken by federal authorities, specifically the DEA, within the next 10 days, cannabis will remain classified as a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substances Act. This would mean the question resolves as \"No.\"\n\n(c) **Most important factors influencing the resolution:**\n- **DEA Decision Timeline:** The DEA has the final authority to act on the HHS recommendation to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III. The timing of their decision is crucial.\n- **Political Will and Pressure:** Any last-minute political pressure or executive push could accelerate the DEA's decision-making process.\n- **Administrative Processes:** The DEA would need to complete the formal rulemaking process in a very short period, which is generally unlikely given bureaucratic constraints.\n\n(d) **What I do not know that should give me pause:**\n- **Internal DEA Deliberations:** The exact status of the DEA's decision-making process is unknown. There could be internal movements or considerations that have not been publicly disclosed.\n- **Potential for Emergency Actions:** While rare, there could be an emergency executive action or directive that forces a rapid reclassification.\n\n(e) **Forecast using historical precedent:** Historically, reclassification of substances, especially from Schedule I to Schedule III, is a rare and lengthy process. Given this precedent, the likelihood of cannabis being reclassified within a year after gaining significant medical acceptance is low.\n\n(f) **Forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** With only 10 days remaining, the chance of the DEA completing the rescheduling process is extremely slim. The probability of cannabis being reclassified within this timeframe would be very low, likely under 10%.\n\n(g) **Forecast if there was 4x the time left:** If there were 40 days left, rather than 10, the probability would still be low but slightly higher, as there would be more time for political or administrative processes to potentially expedite the decision. However, given historical processes, the chance would still likely be below 30%.\n\n**Rationale:** Based on the information provided, the DEA has not set a specific timeline for a decision, and there are significant procedural and bureaucratic hurdles to overcome within the next 10 days. While there is growing acceptance and pressure for cannabis rescheduling, the historical precedent and current procedural requirements suggest a low probability of reclassification occurring before the deadline.\n\n**Final Answer:** Probability: 5%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\nTo address the question of whether cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025, I'll consider the following steps:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** We have about 10 days left until the deadline of January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:** If nothing changed, cannabis would remain in Schedule I, as it currently is.\n\n(c) **The most important factors influencing a successful/unsuccessful resolution:**\n- The DEA's decision-making process: The DEA has the final authority to reclassify cannabis, and their decision will be pivotal.\n- Political and public pressure: Given the recommendations from the HHS and the growing public support for cannabis legalization, there could be pressure on the DEA to act.\n- Timing: With only 10 days left, the DEA would need to act swiftly to implement the rescheduling before the deadline.\n\n(d) **What do you not know that should give you pause and lower confidence?**\n- The specific timeline and internal deliberations of the DEA: While the HHS made a recommendation, the DEA's timeline for action remains uncertain.\n- Potential legal or administrative hurdles that could delay the process even if there is a will to reclassify.\n\n(e) **Forecast using historical precedent:** Historically, reclassification of drugs, especially from Schedule I to Schedule III, is rare and involves a lengthy process. Therefore, based purely on historical precedent, the probability of cannabis being rescheduled in such a short timeframe is low.\n\n(f) **Forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** With even less time, the probability would be lower, as the procedural steps required for rescheduling would be difficult to accomplish in such a limited timeframe.\n\n(g) **Forecast if there was 4x the time left:** If there were more time, say 40 days, the probability would increase since the DEA would have more opportunity to complete the rescheduling process, assuming they were inclined to do so.\n\n### Rationale\n\nGiven the current situation, the DEA has received a recommendation from the HHS to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III, which is significant. However, with only 10 days remaining until the deadline, there is limited time for the DEA to finalize and implement such a change. Historically, drug rescheduling is a complex process that doesn't typically happen quickly. Public and political pressure, along with the HHS's recommendation, may influence the DEA, but the short timeline is a critical constraint.\n\nConsidering these factors, I would assign a low probability to the rescheduling occurring before January 1, 2025, primarily due to the limited time frame and historical precedent of the DEA's decision-making process.\n\n**Final Answer: Probability: 15%**\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\nTo address this forecasting question, I will consider both the current context and historical precedents.\n\n(a) **Time until Outcome:** There are less than two weeks remaining until January 1, 2025, the deadline for determining whether cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act.\n\n(b) **Current Outcome if Nothing Changed:** If nothing changes in the next two weeks, cannabis will remain on Schedule I. However, given the recent recommendation from HHS to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III and the DEA's expected decision, the possibility of a change remains.\n\n(c) **Important Factors for Resolution:**\n- The DEA's decision on the HHS recommendation is crucial. Historical resistance to reclassification could slow the process, but the recommendation from HHS marks a significant shift in federal perspective.\n- Political factors, such as the Biden administration's stance and potential influence on the DEA's decision-making process.\n- Public opinion and state-level legalization trends, which may pressure federal agencies to act more swiftly.\n\n(d) **Unknown Factors:**\n- The exact timeline for the DEA's decision-making process is unclear, and the agency has historically been slow to act.\n- Potential political or bureaucratic delays that could push the decision past the deadline.\n- Any unforeseen legal or regulatory challenges that might arise in the short term.\n\n(e) **Historical Precedent Forecast:** Historically, the reclassification of drugs from Schedule I to III is rare, and federal policy changes often lag behind state-level trends and public opinion. Therefore, the probability might be low, around 20-30%, based on historical precedent alone.\n\n(f) **Forecast with a Quarter of Time Left:** With significantly less time remaining, the forecast would lean towards a lower probability due to the limited window for bureaucratic action. Probability: 10-20%.\n\n(g) **Forecast with 4x the Time Left:** With more time, the increased likelihood of administrative processes concluding could raise the probability to around 40-50%, given the current federal stance and public support.\n\n**Final Rationale:**\nGiven the current context, the HHS recommendation represents a significant shift, and the DEA's decision is pending. However, with less than two weeks remaining, the probability of a change before January 1, 2025, is limited by the short timeframe for action. Historically, such changes are uncommon and slow-moving. While the political and public climate is favorable, the procedural and bureaucratic hurdles present significant challenges.\n\n**Final Answer:** Probability: 25%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n(a) **Time Left:** There are 10 days remaining until the question's deadline of January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if Nothing Changed:** If no new actions were taken by the DEA or other relevant authorities, cannabis would remain classified as a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substances Act.\n\n(c) **Most Important Factors:**\n- **DEA Decision:** The DEA's response to the HHS recommendation to reschedule cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III is crucial.\n- **Political Will:** The political environment, including the stance of the current administration, plays a significant role.\n- **Public Pressure:** Growing public support for cannabis legalization could influence federal actions.\n- **Scientific Evidence:** Recognition of the medical benefits of cannabis by federal agencies could tip the scales towards rescheduling.\n\n(d) **Unknown Factors Influencing Confidence:**\n- **DEA Timeline:** The exact timeline for the DEA's decision-making process is unclear, and bureaucratic processes can be slow.\n- **Political Shifts:** Any last-minute political changes or influences could alter the outcome.\n- **Legal Challenges:** Potential legal challenges or delays in implementing a decision could impact the timeline.\n\n(e) **Historical Precedent Forecast:** Historically, reclassification from Schedule I to Schedule III has been rare, with only a few instances of reclassification. Given this, the probability based solely on historical precedent would be low, around 20%.\n\n(f) **Forecast with Reduced Time (25% Time Remaining):** With only a few days left, the likelihood of a significant change occurring rapidly decreases. The forecast would be around 15%, reflecting the short time frame for potential action.\n\n(g) **Forecast with Extended Time (4x Time):** If there were four times the amount of time remaining, the probability would increase due to the possibilities for advocacy, political changes, and DEA decision-making. This might be around 35%, reflecting the potential for action over a more extended period.\n\n**Rationale:** The recommendation from the HHS to the DEA is a significant factor, as it represents a shift in the federal view of cannabis. However, the DEA's history of cautiousness and thorough review processes, combined with the short time frame left, reduces the likelihood of a reclassification before the deadline. The political environment and high public support add some pressure for change, but the bureaucratic nature of such decisions typically requires more time.\n\n**Final Forecast:** Given the factors and the limited time remaining, the probability of cannabis being removed from Schedule I before January 1, 2025, is relatively low.\n\n**Probability: 20%**\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nTo provide a forecast on whether cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2025, let's consider the following:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known**: As of today, December 21, 2024, there are only 10 days left until the end of 2024.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed**: Given the current status, if no further action is taken within the remaining 10 days, cannabis would remain a Schedule I drug. There is no indication that the reclassification process has been completed yet.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution**: \n- The completion of the administrative process initiated by the Biden administration and the DEA.\n- The response from the public comment period and any resulting actions.\n- Political will and prioritization by the current administration.\n- The potential hearing scheduled for December 2, 2024, which might have an impact on the decision-making process.\n\n(d) **What do you not know that should give you pause and lower confidence?**: \n- The actual status and results from the public comment period and how they have influenced decision-makers.\n- Whether any last-minute political or administrative actions could expedite the process before the end of the year.\n- The outcome of the scheduled hearing and its impact on the reclassification decision.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent**: Historically, the DEA has not reclassified a Schedule I drug to a lower schedule in the past 50 years, which would suggest a very low probability of reclassification within such a short timeframe.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left**: With only 2-3 days remaining (a quarter of the remaining time), the probability would be even lower due to the limited time for any bureaucratic processes to be completed.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left**: If there were 40 days remaining instead of 10, the probability might be slightly higher, but still low given the complexity and inertia of federal drug policy changes.\n\n**Rationale**:\n- Given the significant historical precedent against reclassifying Schedule I drugs quickly, combined with the very short timeframe remaining and the complexity of the administrative process, the probability of cannabis being removed from Schedule I before 2025 is low.\n- However, there is some momentum and unprecedented action from the current administration, which slightly raises the probability compared to historical precedent alone.\n\n**Final Answer**: Probability: 10%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome is known: There are 11 days left until January 1, 2025, when the question's resolution will be determined.\n\n(b) What the outcome would be if nothing changed: If nothing changed, cannabis would remain classified as a Schedule I drug. Despite significant developments and proposals, the reclassification process has not yet been completed.\n\n(c) The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution: \n- The speed at which the DEA and other relevant federal agencies can finalize the reclassification process.\n- Any last-minute political or administrative interventions that could either expedite or delay the process.\n- The outcome of the public comment period and any subsequent actions or hearings related to the proposed reclassification.\n\n(d) What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence:\n- I do not have specific information on the current status of the DEA's review process and whether any final decisions have been made but not yet announced.\n- There is uncertainty regarding any potential legal or procedural challenges that could arise and delay the reclassification.\n- The influence of any political developments or shifts in priorities within the administration or Congress that could impact the decision.\n\n(e) What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent: Historically, reclassifications of Schedule I drugs have been rare and slow, with the DEA not having reclassified any Schedule I drug to a lower schedule in the last 50 years. Based solely on this precedent, the probability would be low, perhaps around 10%.\n\n(f) What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left: With only a few days left, if the process has not significantly progressed to the final stages, the probability of reclassification would remain low, around 20% given current momentum but lack of definitive action.\n\n(g) What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left: With more time, up to four years, the probability would likely increase significantly due to ongoing momentum, public support, and economic considerations. In this case, the probability might be around 70%, assuming continued advocacy and administrative efforts.\n\nRationale: There has been significant movement towards reclassification, with proposals from the Biden administration and recommendations from federal agencies. However, the historical precedent of slow reclassification processes and the limited time left make it unlikely that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I before the deadline. Additionally, the lack of information on any final decision from the DEA adds uncertainty. Given these factors, the probability remains moderate but not high.\n\nFinal Answer: \"Probability: 25%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known:\nThere are approximately 11 days left until January 1, 2025, when the outcome of the question will be known.\n\n(b) What the outcome would be if nothing changed:\nIf nothing changed from the current situation, cannabis would not be removed from Schedule I before 2025, as the DEA has not yet finalized the reclassification process despite significant movement and proposals toward doing so.\n\n(c) The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution:\n1. The DEA's decision-making process and timeline: Whether the DEA finalizes the reclassification of cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III or another schedule before the end of 2024.\n2. Political pressure and administrative priorities: The influence of the Biden administration's proposal and the public comment period on the DEA's actions.\n3. Any last-minute administrative or legal hurdles that could delay the reclassification process.\n\n(d) What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence:\n1. The internal decision-making process and current stance of the DEA, which is not publicly disclosed, could significantly influence the outcome.\n2. Potential political or bureaucratic delays that could arise, given the short timeframe remaining.\n3. Any unexpected legal challenges or public backlash that might arise from the proposed reclassification.\n\n(e) What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent:\nHistorically, no Schedule I drug has been reclassified by the DEA in the past 50 years. This precedent would suggest a low probability of reclassification within the remaining timeframe, perhaps around 10%.\n\n(f) What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:\nWith only a few days left, the probability would likely remain low, around 10-15%, as there would be insufficient time for any significant bureaucratic action unless already underway.\n\n(g) What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left:\nWith four times the remaining time (approximately 44 days), the probability might increase slightly to around 30%, given the ongoing efforts and political momentum.\n\nRationale:\nGiven the significant movement from the Biden administration and the public comment period ending in July 2024, there is a possibility of reclassification. However, the DEA has not yet acted, and the historical precedent of such reclassifications taking significant time suggests a cautious approach. The time remaining is very limited, which reduces the likelihood of finalization before the deadline.\n\nFinal Answer: \"Probability: 20%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n**Rationale:**\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** There are about 10 days left until January 1, 2025, when the resolution of the question will be known.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:** If nothing changes in the next 10 days, it is likely that cannabis will remain a Schedule I drug, as the DEA has not yet acted on the recommendation to reclassify it to Schedule III.\n\n(c) **Most important factors influencing resolution:**\n- **Political Will and Administrative Actions:** The Biden administration has shown intent to reclassify cannabis, but the process involves multiple steps, including DEA action and publication for public comment. The current status indicates that while significant steps have been taken, the final administrative actions have not yet occurred.\n- **Public Opinion and Advocacy:** Strong public support for cannabis legalization and advocacy from influential groups may pressure policymakers, but time is a limiting factor.\n- **Economic Implications:** The potential economic benefits of reclassification could influence decisions, but historically, economic factors alone have not been primary drivers of such changes.\n\n(d) **Unknowns that could lower confidence:**\n- The exact timeline and ability of the DEA and other federal agencies to act swiftly enough to meet the deadline.\n- Potential political or legal obstacles that could delay or prevent reclassification before the end of 2024.\n\n(e) **Forecast using historical precedent:** Historically, reclassification of Schedule I drugs has been rare and slow. Given this precedent, the probability of reclassification within a short timeframe is low.\n\n(f) **Forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** With only a few days left, the probability of cannabis being removed from Schedule I would be very low, given that no formal reclassification has occurred yet.\n\n(g) **Forecast if there was 4x the time left:** If there were more time, say until the end of 2025, the probability would increase significantly, given the current political and public momentum towards reclassification.\n\n**Final Answer:**\nConsidering the factors above and the very limited time remaining, the probability of cannabis being removed from Schedule I before January 1, 2025, is low. The regulatory and administrative processes, combined with historical precedent, suggest that a last-minute change is unlikely.\n\nProbability: 5%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\nTo address the question of whether cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2025, let's consider the following:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome is known**: There are approximately 10 days remaining until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed**: If no further action is taken, cannabis will remain a Schedule I substance. The reclassification process requires several administrative steps, including final approval from the DEA, which has not yet occurred.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution**:\n- The decision and actions of the DEA following the recommendation from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to reschedule cannabis to Schedule III.\n- Political will and administrative action from the White House and other involved agencies.\n- Public and political pressure, as well as the impact of public opinion and comments received during the public comment period.\n\n(d) **What do you not know that should give you pause and lower confidence**:\n- The internal deliberations and specific timeline of the DEA regarding the rescheduling decision, which could significantly influence the outcome.\n- The potential for unexpected political or legal challenges that could delay or complicate the process.\n- The exact impact of the 43,000 public comments and whether they sway the decision-making process.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent**:\n- Historically, the DEA has not reclassified a Schedule I drug to a lower schedule, and changes to federal drug policy tend to be slow and complex. Based on this, the forecast would be low, perhaps around 10-20%.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left**:\n- With just a few days remaining and the absence of any recent announcements indicating imminent action, the probability of reclassification would be very low, likely less than 5%.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left**:\n- With an extended timeframe and considering the current momentum and political climate, the probability might be higher, perhaps around 40-50%, given the administrative progress and public sentiment.\n\n**Rationale**:\nThe current situation shows significant administrative progress and political will towards rescheduling cannabis. However, the historical precedent of slow federal action and the short remaining timeframe pose significant challenges. Given the lack of recent announcements indicating final DEA action, it seems unlikely that rescheduling will occur before the end of 2024.\n\n**Final Answer**:\nProbability: 5%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** There are approximately 10 days left until January 1, 2025, which is when the outcome to the question will be determined.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:** If nothing changed from the current situation, cannabis would remain classified as a Schedule I drug, as the DEA has not yet completed the rulemaking process to officially reschedule it.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution:**\n- The DEA's decision-making process and whether they finalize the rulemaking to reschedule cannabis in the next 10 days.\n- The extent to which the DEA has completed necessary steps such as public comment review and administrative hearings.\n- Political pressure and influence from both public opinion and federal recommendations for rescheduling.\n\n(d) **What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence:**\n- The current status and timeline of the DEA's rulemaking process, including whether any unexpected delays or accelerations have occurred.\n- Internal priorities and decision-making processes within the DEA, which are not publicly transparent.\n- Potential political or legal challenges that could arise in the final days of the year.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent:** Historically, the reclassification of substances from Schedule I has been rare and slow, often taking several years. Given this precedent, without considering current information, the probability would be low, likely around 10%.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** With only a few days left until the end of the year, the likelihood of the DEA completing the rulemaking process and officially rescheduling cannabis would be very low, likely around 5%.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left:** If there were four years left, given the current momentum and federal recommendations, the probability of reclassification would be significantly higher, potentially around 70%.\n\n**Rationale:**\nThe recent developments, including recommendations from HHS and increased public support, suggest strong momentum towards reclassification. However, the DEA's rulemaking process can be lengthy and complex. With only 10 days left and no publicly available information indicating an imminent final rule, the probability remains low for cannabis being removed from Schedule I by January 1, 2025.\n\n**Final Answer:**\nProbability: 10%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\nTo address the interview question, I need to consider several aspects regarding the potential reclassification of cannabis before 2025. Here's how I would approach this:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known.**\n\nThere are approximately 10 days left until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed.**\n\nIf nothing changed between now and January 1, 2025, cannabis would remain a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substances Act, as there has been no official reclassification or finalization of a rulemaking process by the DEA.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution.**\n\n1. **DEA Rulemaking Process:** The DEA has the final authority to reclassify substances. The recent developments, including recommendations from the HHS and public support, indicate potential for reclassification, but the DEA needs to complete a public comment period and finalize a rule, which could take time.\n\n2. **Political Climate:** The outcome of the 2024 elections and the current political climate can influence the speed and likelihood of reclassification. Democratic control could increase chances, but this is not a certainty.\n\n3. **Public Opinion and Pressure:** Strong public support for legalization might pressure federal authorities to act, though it is not the sole determinant.\n\n(d) **What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence.**\n\n1. **DEA's Timeline:** The exact timeline and current status of the DEA's rulemaking process are unclear. If there's no immediate action planned in the next 10 days, reclassification is unlikely by January 1, 2025.\n\n2. **Political Influence and Negotiations:** Behind-the-scenes political negotiations and decisions could impact the scheduling process, but these are not transparent.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent (i.e., how often this happens in the past) without any current information.**\n\nHistorically, changes in drug scheduling, especially for substances like cannabis, have been infrequent and slow. With no historical precedent for rapid rescheduling, the probability would be low.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left.**\n\nWith less than three days left, the probability would be extremely low, as bureaucratic processes and rulemaking typically require more time than is available.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left.**\n\nWith 40 days left, there might be a slightly higher probability, but still low, due to the complexity and time required for DEA rulemaking and potential political hurdles.\n\n**Rationale:**\n\nGiven the close proximity to 2025 and the procedural requirements necessary for reclassification, it is highly unlikely that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I within the next 10 days. While there has been significant movement and public support for reclassification, the DEA's rulemaking process has not been completed, and there is no indication of an imminent decision before the deadline.\n\n**Final Answer:**\n\nProbability: 5%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\nTo answer this question, I will first address each of the preparatory points before arriving at my final probability estimate.\n\n(a) **Time Left Until the Outcome is Known:** \nThere are approximately 10 days left until January 1, 2025. This is a very short time frame for any significant regulatory or legislative changes to take place, especially involving bureaucratic processes like rescheduling a controlled substance.\n\n(b) **Outcome if Nothing Changed:** \nIf nothing changes in the next 10 days, cannabis will remain a Schedule I drug. The process of reclassification involves multiple steps and public hearings, which have not been completed as of the current date.\n\n(c) **Important Factors for Successful/Unsuccessful Resolution:** \n- **Federal Agency Actions:** The DEA has the final authority to change the scheduling of cannabis. Their actions and timelines are critical.\n- **Political Environment:** The political landscape can influence the speed and likelihood of reclassification. The upcoming elections and the current administration's stance are significant.\n- **Public Opinion and Advocacy:** Growing public support and advocacy for cannabis legalization can exert pressure on federal agencies.\n- **Bureaucratic Process and Timelines:** The rulemaking process involves public comments and potential hearings, which can delay decisions.\n\n(d) **Unknowns That Should Give Pause and Lower Confidence:** \n- **DEA's Timeline and Decisions:** The exact timeline of DEA's rulemaking process and whether they will expedite it is uncertain.\n- **Political Developments:** Any sudden political shifts or decisions by key policymakers could influence the outcome.\n\n(e) **Forecast Based on Historical Precedent:** \nHistorically, changes in drug scheduling at the federal level have been slow and infrequent. Given this, the likelihood of reclassification within a year of a recommendation has been low.\n\n(f) **Forecast with a Quarter of the Time Left:** \nIf there were only 2-3 days left, my confidence in cannabis being rescheduled would decrease even further, likely making the probability negligible (<5%).\n\n(g) **Forecast with 4x the Time Left:** \nIf there were 40 days left, the probability would increase slightly, but the bureaucratic process and the need for DEA action would still limit the likelihood significantly. I would estimate perhaps a 20-25% probability.\n\n**Rationale:** \nConsidering the short time frame left, the complexities of federal rulemaking, and the historical pace of such changes, it seems highly unlikely that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I before January 1, 2025. While there is significant momentum and public support, the procedural steps required have not been completed.\n\n**Final Answer:** \nProbability: 5%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\nTo answer this question comprehensively, let's break it down according to the provided points:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:**\n- We have approximately one year and ten days until January 1, 2025, when this question will be resolved.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:**\n- If the current trajectory and developments continue without any significant change, it appears likely that cannabis could be reclassified from Schedule I. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has recommended rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III, and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is considering this recommendation. This suggests that the likelihood of reclassification is relatively high if the process continues uninterrupted.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution:**\n- The DEA's decision-making process and timeline are crucial, as they have the final authority to initiate and complete the rescheduling process.\n- The impact of the 2024 elections and any resulting shifts in political priorities or administrative focus could influence the likelihood of reclassification.\n- Public opinion and continued advocacy at both state and federal levels may apply pressure and create momentum for change.\n- Any major changes in the scientific or medical consensus regarding the benefits and risks of cannabis could also impact the decision.\n\n(d) **What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence:**\n- The exact timeline and progress of the DEA's rulemaking process, including any potential delays or public opposition that could slow down or halt progress.\n- The impact of the 2024 elections on federal priorities, particularly if there is a significant change in the political landscape or administration.\n- Potential unforeseen developments or events that could shift public and political opinion or priorities.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent:**\n- Historically, reclassification of substances from Schedule I has been infrequent and often slow, requiring extensive evidence and support. Given this precedent, a cautious estimate might suggest a lower probability of reclassification within a year.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:**\n- With just a few months remaining, the likelihood of timely reclassification would depend heavily on the current status and pace of the DEA's rulemaking process. If there had been no significant progress, the probability would decrease.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left:**\n- If there were four more years left, the probability of reclassification would likely be higher, as there would be more time for the DEA to complete the rulemaking process, for public support to grow, and for political momentum to build.\n\n**Rationale:**\nBased on the current developments and the progress already made by HHS and the potential for a DEA rulemaking process, there is a reasonably high likelihood that cannabis could be reclassified before 2025. However, given the historical precedent of slow federal change and the potential for political and procedural delays, the probability is not certain.\n\n**Final Answer:**\nProbability: 70%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n(a) The time left is approximately 10 days until the end of 2024, when the resolution to the question will be known.\n\n(b) If nothing changed in the next 10 days, cannabis would still be classified as a Schedule I substance, resolving the question as \"No.\"\n\n(c) The most important factors influencing the successful removal of cannabis from Schedule I include:\n- The DEA's rulemaking process and timeline, which includes public comment periods and potentially lengthy administrative hearings.\n- The influence of the upcoming 2024 elections on federal policy decisions, where changes in political leadership could affect the prioritization of cannabis reclassification.\n- The level of bipartisan support in Congress, which can facilitate or hinder legislative action on cannabis reclassification.\n\n(d) What I do not know that should give me pause includes:\n- The exact progress and status of the DEA's rulemaking process, including any behind-the-scenes negotiations or delays.\n- Any last-minute political maneuvers or executive actions that could expedite the rescheduling process.\n- The impact of lobbying efforts from both pro-cannabis and anti-cannabis organizations, which can influence decision-making.\n\n(e) Historically, the removal or reclassification of substances from Schedule I has been rare and slow, with significant regulatory and political hurdles. Using historical precedent alone, the probability of cannabis being removed from Schedule I within the next 10 days would be very low.\n\n(f) If there was only a quarter of the time left (approximately 2.5 days), my forecast would be even more pessimistic given the limited time for any major policy changes to occur.\n\n(g) If there was 4x the time left (approximately 40 days), my forecast would be slightly more optimistic, but still cautious given the complexity and typical duration of the rescheduling process. However, even with more time, the likelihood of significant changes occurring swiftly remains low without significant political shifts or expedited processes.\n\nRationale: Given the historical precedent, the current status of federal processes, and the limited time remaining, the probability of cannabis being removed from Schedule I before 2025 is low. Although there has been movement toward reclassification, the bureaucratic and political processes involved are unlikely to be completed in the remaining time frame.\n\nFinal Answer: \"Probability: 10%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 1.734072499999999, + "minutes_taken": 1.9887466510136922, + "prediction": 0.1 + }, + { + "question": { + "question_text": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", + "page_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30476", + "id_of_post": 30476, + "id_of_question": 30269, + "num_forecasters": 82, + "num_predictions": 256, + "state": "open", + "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", + "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. If such reports indicate that a ceasefire remains in effect, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If the latest reports indicate that a ceasefire is no longer effective as of the resolution date, this question will resolve as **No**. If it is unclear, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", + "background_info": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.", + "close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00", + "actual_resolution_time": null, + "scheduled_resolution_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00", + "date_accessed": "2024-12-21T00:06:02.851005", + "api_json": { + "id": 30476, + "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", + "url_title": "Ceasefire between Israel & Lebanon/Hezbollah on Jan 1, 2025?", + "slug": "ceasefire-between-israel-lebanonhezbollah-on-jan-1-2025", + "author_id": 126626, + "author_username": "skmmcj", + "coauthors": [], + "projects": { + "tag": [ + { + "id": 32594, + "name": "2024 Leaderboard", + "slug": "2024_leaderboard", + "type": "tag", + "is_global_leaderboard": true + } + ], + "site_main": [ + { + "id": 144, + "type": "site_main", + "name": "Metaculus Community", + "slug": null, + "prize_pool": null, + "start_date": null, + "close_date": null, + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": null, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-11T09:10:00.532600Z", + "default_permission": "forecaster", + "visibility": "normal", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + ], + "tournament": [ + { + "id": 3672, + "type": "tournament", + "name": "\ud83c\udfc6 Quarterly Cup \ud83c\udfc6", + "slug": "quarterly-cup", + "prize_pool": null, + "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-08T05:30:25Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-11T20:58:19.381283Z", + "default_permission": "forecaster", + "visibility": "normal", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + ], + "default_project": { + "id": 3672, + "type": "tournament", + "name": "\ud83c\udfc6 Quarterly Cup \ud83c\udfc6", + "slug": "quarterly-cup", + "prize_pool": null, + "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-08T05:30:25Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-11T20:58:19.381283Z", + "default_permission": "forecaster", + "visibility": "normal", + "is_current_content_translated": false + }, + "category": [ + { + "id": 3687, + "name": "Geopolitics", + "slug": "geopolitics", + "description": "Geopolitics", + "type": "category" + } + ] + }, + "created_at": "2024-11-25T20:10:37.357597Z", + "published_at": "2024-11-29T19:04:01.475287Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-20T23:10:58.065578Z", + "curation_status": "approved", + "comment_count": 7, + "status": "open", + "resolved": false, + "actual_close_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", + "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", + "nr_forecasters": 82, + "question": { + "id": 30269, + "title": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", + "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.", + "created_at": "2024-11-25T20:10:37.358029Z", + "open_time": "2024-11-30T15:30:00Z", + "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-04T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", + "actual_resolve_time": null, + "resolution_set_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", + "type": "binary", + "options": [], + "group_variable": "", + "status": "open", + "possibilities": null, + "resolution": null, + "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, + "question_weight": 1.0, + "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", + "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. 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In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal." + }, + "already_forecasted": true, + "community_prediction_at_access_time": 0.89 + }, + "explanation": "\n# SUMMARY\n*Question*: Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?\n*Final Prediction*: 70.0%\n*Total Cost*: $1.85\n*Time Spent*: 1.99 minutes\n\n\n## Report 1 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 75.0%\n*Forecaster 2*: 75.0%\n*Forecaster 3*: 70.0%\n*Forecaster 4*: 75.0%\n*Forecaster 5*: 75.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent developments in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah reveal a fragile situation. A ceasefire was established on November 27, 2024, and is generally holding, though both sides have accused each other of repeated violations. Key points of contention include Israel's demand for the right to unilaterally enforce perceived violations and Hezbollah's insistence on no Israeli attacks in Lebanon. The ceasefire agreement involves the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and the redeployment of Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, with the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers taking over border areas. Despite these arrangements, tensions remain high, with incidents such as Hezbollah's rocket attack on an Israeli watchtower and reports of 52 Israeli violations since the agreement's inception [Q1].\n\nStatements from Israeli and Hezbollah leaders reflect ongoing tensions and differing perspectives on the truce's enforcement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described Hezbollah's recent attacks as severe violations of the ceasefire, indicating a readiness to retaliate. Hezbollah, through MP Hassan Fadlallah, has emphasized their preparedness to respond to Israeli violations, highlighting the precarious nature of the ceasefire. The proposed 60-day ceasefire deal includes conditions such as Hezbollah's removal of fighters from certain areas and the cessation of offensive operations by both sides, with a focus on self-defense as per international law. However, the lack of an enforcement mechanism poses challenges in addressing violations [Q2][Q3].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Historical ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been established multiple times, with varying success in terms of duration and adherence. The 2006 ceasefire, despite violations, resulted in a generally calm situation as of 2015 [B1].\n- Ceasefires in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, often experience breaches but can remain technically \"intact\" for extended periods, as seen in the 1996 ceasefire [B2].\n- Ceasefire agreements with third-party supervision, like the current involvement of France and the US, have shown mixed effectiveness in maintaining peace for the duration of the initial agreement period [B3].\n\n#### Pros\n- The ceasefire agreement includes significant troop movements and international oversight, which could stabilize the situation [Q1].\n- Neither side appears eager to return to full-scale conflict, as the recent war resulted in substantial casualties and displacement [Q5].\n\n#### Cons\n- The ceasefire is fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations, and incidents such as Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rocket attacks have already occurred [Q1][Q5].\n- The lack of an enforcement mechanism in the ceasefire agreement could lead to challenges in addressing violations [Q3].\n- Historically, ceasefires in this region have been prone to breaches, often within the first month, due to complex political and military dynamics [B5].\n\n\n## Report 2 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 65.0%\n*Forecaster 2*: 70.0%\n*Forecaster 3*: 70.0%\n*Forecaster 4*: 70.0%\n*Forecaster 5*: 65.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nAs of December 2024, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the United States, is in effect and generally holding, despite accusations of repeated violations by both sides. The ceasefire, which began on November 27, 2024, is set for a 60-day period and includes the withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah forces from southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army, along with United Nations peacekeepers, is to be deployed in the area to ensure the withdrawal and maintain peace. The agreement also involves the demilitarization of Hezbollah under the supervision of an international committee led by the United States, although it does not address Iranian-orchestrated attacks by proxy militias [Q1].\n\nKey decision-makers on both sides have expressed reservations about the ceasefire, impacting its sustainability. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to respond forcefully to perceived infractions, while Hezbollah has emphasized its right to self-defense. Historical precedents show that ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been fragile and often short-lived, with the 2006 ceasefire never fully implemented. The current ceasefire's long-term sustainability remains uncertain due to ongoing regional dynamics and the lack of a robust enforcement mechanism [Q2][Q3].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Historically, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have rarely remained active for their entire duration without violations or renewed conflict [B3].\n- Ceasefires in the Middle East involving non-state actors and state forces have rarely lasted over two months due to the complex and volatile nature of the conflicts [B2].\n- Ceasefires with accusations of violations by both parties have often struggled to remain effective until the end of their term [B4].\n\n#### Pros\n- The current ceasefire agreement includes international mediation and the deployment of UN peacekeepers, which could help maintain stability [Q1].\n- Hezbollah's military capacity has been significantly reduced, potentially impacting the likelihood of sustained hostilities [Q5].\n\n#### Cons\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah have expressed significant reservations about the ceasefire, maintaining a posture that could lead to renewed hostilities [Q2].\n- Historical precedents indicate that ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been fragile and often short-lived [Q3].\n- The political landscape in Lebanon, including the absence of a president, complicates negotiations and consensus on the ceasefire [Q4].\n\n\n## Report 3 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 35.0%\n*Forecaster 2*: 40.0%\n*Forecaster 3*: 65.0%\n*Forecaster 4*: 25.0%\n*Forecaster 5*: 65.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nThe ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the U.S. and France, began on November 27, 2024, with a 60-day period for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon and for Hezbollah to demilitarize. Despite the agreement, tensions remain high, with both sides accusing each other of violations. Israel has reportedly violated the ceasefire 52 times, and Hezbollah has retaliated with rocket attacks. The ceasefire is based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was never fully implemented after the 2006 war, and aims to allow displaced people to return home. However, the success of the ceasefire is uncertain due to ongoing hostilities and strategic incentives for both parties to resume conflict [Q1][Q5].\n\nKey leaders have expressed differing views on the ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu supports the truce but insists on the right to take military action if threatened. Hezbollah's new leader, Naim Qassem, emphasizes that the ceasefire's success depends on Israel's seriousness in negotiations and warns of prolonged conflict if necessary. Historical data suggests that ceasefires in the region are fragile, often unraveling as expiration dates approach, and are challenged by the lack of enforcement mechanisms and strategic incentives for violations [Q2][Q3].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hezbollah have been notably fragile, with the most significant one in 2006 never fully implemented. Maintaining a ceasefire for at least 30 days has been challenging [B1].\n- Ceasefire agreements in the Middle East have often been violated shortly after implementation, making the successful maintenance of a ceasefire for 60 days a rare occurrence [B2].\n- Ceasefire agreements involving third-party brokers like the U.S. and France have varied effectiveness, often lacking strict enforcement mechanisms [B3].\n- Ceasefires between parties with ongoing military activities and accusations of violations have had mixed success, with violations often occurring within weeks or days [B4].\n- Ceasefire agreements following significant escalations, such as assassinations, have historically been fragile and short-lived [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- The ceasefire agreement is brokered by the U.S. and France, which could provide diplomatic pressure to maintain the truce [Q1].\n- The agreement aims to allow over 1 million displaced people to return home, providing a humanitarian incentive to uphold the ceasefire [Q1].\n\n#### Cons\n- Israel has reportedly violated the ceasefire 52 times, and Hezbollah has retaliated, indicating ongoing hostilities [Q1].\n- Historical success rates of ceasefires in the region are low, with agreements often unraveling as expiration dates approach [Q3].\n- The lack of a robust enforcement mechanism and strategic incentives for both parties to resume conflict challenge the sustainability of the ceasefire [Q3][B2].\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n## R1: Q1: What recent developments have occurred in the negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah?\nAnswer:\nRecent developments in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah indicate a fragile situation. A ceasefire was established on November 27, 2024, and is generally holding, although both sides have accused each other of repeated violations \\[[2](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/us-announces-first-israeli-withdrawal-lebanon-under-ceasefire-deal-3774386#:~:text=Austin%20%22emphasized%20that%20the%20ceasefire...,a%20period%20of%2060%20days.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/us-announces-first-israeli-withdrawal-lebanon-under-ceasefire-deal-3774386#:~:text=A%20ceasefire%20came%20into%20effect,military%20infrastructure%20in%20southern%20Lebanon.)\\]. A significant point of contention is Israel's demand for the right to unilaterally enforce what it considers violations of the truce, seeking assurances from the US to act against Hezbollah if the Lebanese army fails to intervene. Hezbollah, on the other hand, insists that Israel has no right to conduct attacks in Lebanon or violate its airspace, viewing such actions as breaches of Lebanese sovereignty \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=A%20key%20point%20of%20contention,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]\\[[3](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=In%20north%20Israel%2C%20more%20than,an%20encroachment%20of%20Lebanese%20sovereignty.)\\]\\[[14](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Israel%20has%20sought%20assurances%20from,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\].\n\nThe ceasefire agreement includes the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and the redeployment of Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, with the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers taking over the border areas \\[[4](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/us-announces-first-israeli-withdrawal-lebanon-under-ceasefire-deal-3774386#:~:text=A%20ceasefire%20came%20into%20effect,military%20infrastructure%20in%20southern%20Lebanon.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/us-announces-first-israeli-withdrawal-lebanon-under-ceasefire-deal-3774386#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20agreement%2C,military%20infrastructure%20in%20southern%20Lebanon.)\\]. However, tensions remain high, with incidents such as Hezbollah's rocket attack on an Israeli watchtower, which they described as a defensive response to Israeli violations of the ceasefire \\[[10](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=The%20Israeli%20prime%20minister%2C%20Benjamin,Israel%20of%20the%20ceasefire%20agreement.)\\]. Additionally, France, tasked with supervising the ceasefire, reported 52 Israeli violations since the agreement's inception, raising concerns about the potential resumption of full-scale hostilities \\[[12](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Israel%20has%20carried%20out%20several,Israel%2DLebanon%20border%2C%20within%2060%20days.)\\]\\[[13](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Israeli%20media%20reported%20on%20Sunday,Hamas%E2%80%99s%20attack%20a%20day%20prior.)\\].\n\n\n## R1: Q2: What statements have Israeli and Hezbollah leaders made regarding the potential for a ceasefire in the near future?\nAnswer:\nIsraeli and Hezbollah leaders have made several statements regarding the potential for a ceasefire in the near future, reflecting ongoing tensions and differing perspectives on the truce's enforcement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described Hezbollah's recent attacks as \"a severe violation of the ceasefire,\" and has vowed that Israel would \"respond forcefully\" to such provocations, indicating a fragile truce and a readiness to retaliate if necessary \\[[11](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6273139ed4o#:~:text=Israeli%20Prime%20Minister%20Benjamin%20Netanyahu,area%20over%20the%20same%20period.)\\]. On the other hand, Hezbollah, through MP Hassan Fadlallah, has asserted that the group is prepared to respond if Israel violates the truce, emphasizing that the ceasefire agreement recognizes \"the right of the two parties to self-defense\" \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=A%20key%20point%20of%20contention,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Israel%20has%20sought%20assurances%20from,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\].\n\nA significant point of contention is Israel's insistence on the right to unilaterally enforce what it perceives as violations of the truce, seeking assurances from the US to act against Hezbollah if the Lebanese army fails to intervene \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=A%20key%20point%20of%20contention,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Residents%20of%20south%20Lebanon%20had,from%20acting%20in%20south%20Lebanon.)\\]. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has rejected Israel's right to carry out attacks in Lebanon or to fly its aircraft in Lebanese airspace, viewing such actions as encroachments on Lebanese sovereignty \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=A%20key%20point%20of%20contention,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Israel%20has%20sought%20assurances%20from,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]. These statements highlight the precarious nature of the ceasefire and the potential for renewed hostilities if these issues remain unresolved.\n\n\n## R1: Q3: What are the key conditions or terms of the proposed 60-day ceasefire deal reported by the BBC?\nAnswer:\nThe proposed 60-day ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, as reported by the BBC, includes several key conditions and terms. Firstly, Hezbollah is required to remove its fighters and weapons from the area between the Blue Line, which is the unofficial border between Lebanon and Israel, and the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometers to the north. This area will then be secured by the Lebanese Army, which will ensure that no military infrastructure or weaponry is rebuilt \\[[5](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d3gj9ewxo#:~:text=In%20a%20joint%20statement%2C%20the,%2820%20miles%29%20to%20the%20north.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d3gj9ewxo#:~:text=This%20is%20what%20we%20know,to%20a%20senior%20US%20official.)\\]. Additionally, the ceasefire agreement mandates that both Israel and Lebanon cease offensive operations, while still allowing for self-defense as per international law \\[[15](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=Below%20is%20a%20summary%20of,States%20will%20chair%2C%20alongside%20France.)\\]. The United Nations will host and the United States will chair a forum to facilitate communication between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, with France also participating \\[[2](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=This%20is%20essentially%20the%20crux,the%20respective%20positions%20agreed%20upon.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=Below%20is%20a%20summary%20of,States%20will%20chair%2C%20alongside%20France.)\\]. \n\nThe ceasefire is designed to be permanent, although it initially covers a 60-day period \\[[5](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d3gj9ewxo#:~:text=In%20a%20joint%20statement%2C%20the,%2820%20miles%29%20to%20the%20north.)\\]. There is no enforcement mechanism in place, which could lead to challenges in addressing violations, as both countries are required to report any breaches through yet-to-be-established processes \\[[6](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=But%20if%20there%20are%20any,of%20the%20Beirut%20Exchange%20Foundation.)\\]. The deal also involves a five-country committee, including France and chaired by the US, to monitor the truce \\[[10](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo#:~:text=Lebanese%20deputy%20parliament%20speaker%20Elias,limit%20on%20this%20ceasefire%20deal.)\\].\n\n\n## R1: Q4: What historical ceasefire agreements have been made between Israel and Hezbollah, and how long did they typically last?\nAnswer:\nHistorically, one of the significant ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hezbollah was the 1996 Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire Understanding, also known as the Grapes of Wrath Understandings. This agreement was established to end cross-border attacks on civilian targets and to prevent the use of civilian villages for launching attacks. A Monitoring Committee, including representatives from the US, France, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon, was set up to oversee compliance and address any violations \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=The%20Monitoring%20Committee%20for%20the,kind%20of%20weapon%20into%20Israel.)\\]\\[[3](https://clhrf.com/unresagreements/aprilunderstanding.htm#:~:text=Under%20the%20terms%20of%20the,will%20ensure%20the%20following%3A%201.)\\]. The ceasefire was announced on April 26, 1996, and implemented the following day \\[[8](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20understands%20that,groups%20responsible%20for%20the%20attack.)\\].\n\nThe 1996 ceasefire served as a model for subsequent negotiations, including those related to the Israel-Hamas conflict in 2024 \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=The%20Monitoring%20Committee%20for%20the,kind%20of%20weapon%20into%20Israel.)\\]\\[[11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=In%20February%202024%2C%20it%20was,as%20launching%20grounds%20for%20attacks.)\\]. However, the durability of such ceasefires has varied, often being fragile and subject to violations, as seen in the broader regional tensions involving Hezbollah and Israel. The historical context suggests that while ceasefires can be established, maintaining them over the long term has been challenging due to the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region.\n\n\n## R1: Q5: What are the current military activities or tensions between Israel and Hezbollah as of December 2024?\nAnswer:\nAs of December 2024, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is under significant strain. Both sides have accused each other of violations, with Israel conducting airstrikes in southern Lebanon, claiming they are enforcing the ceasefire against Hezbollah's breaches \\[[12](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-cease-fire-violations.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CI%E2%80%99ve%20been%20around%20Lebanon%20cease%2Dfire,and%20bombing%20the%20group%E2%80%99s%20facilities.)\\]. The presence of Hezbollah operatives south of the Litani River is a particular point of contention, as it is seen as a fundamental violation of the ceasefire agreement \\[[8](https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/400100#:~:text=%22I%20emphasized%20that%20Israel%20is,Join%20our%20official%20WhatsApp%20group)\\]. Despite these tensions, neither side appears eager to return to full-scale conflict, as the recent war resulted in substantial casualties and displacement \\[[6](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/02/world/middleeast/hezbollah-israel-lebanon.html#:~:text=At%20least%20for%20now%2C%20the,and%20their%20regional%20archenemy%2C%20Iran.)\\]. However, the situation remains volatile, with international calls for restraint and adherence to the ceasefire terms \\[[2](https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/400100#:~:text=American%20officials%20told%20Ynet%20that,missiles%20and%20rockets%20by%20tenfold.)\\]\\[[10](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/03/middle-east-crisis-live-ceasefire-israel-lebanon-syria-gaza#:~:text=The%20State%20of%20Israel%20remains,operate%20to%20defend%20Israeli%20civilian)\\].\n\n\n\n## R1: B1: How often have ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah been established in the past, and what percentage remained active for at least 60 days?\nAnswer:\nCeasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been established multiple times in the past, with varying degrees of success in terms of their duration and adherence. A notable ceasefire was established on September 8, 2006, which, despite violations by both sides, resulted in a generally calm situation as of 2015 \\[[4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Lebanese_conflict#:~:text=Hostilities%20were%20suspended%20on%208,what%20would%20become%20Syria%20.)\\]. However, the specific percentage of ceasefires that remained active for at least 60 days is not directly available in the provided sources.\n\nThe 2006 ceasefire, which was part of a broader agreement involving Syria, Lebanon, and Israel, was monitored by the United States and France. This agreement included commitments from armed groups in Lebanon not to attack Israel and vice versa, with a focus on protecting civilians and civilian infrastructure \\[[5](https://www.hrw.org/reports/2007/iopt0807/9.htm#:~:text=The%20agreement%2C%20according%20to%20the,exercising%20the%20right%20of%20self%2Ddefense.)\\]\\[[11](https://www.hrw.org/reports/2007/iopt0807/9.htm#:~:text=233%20The%20conflict%20ended%20in,as%20launching%20grounds%20for%20attacks.)\\]. Despite these agreements, violations such as Israeli overflights and Hezbollah's failure to disarm were noted, indicating challenges in maintaining long-term ceasefires \\[[7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Lebanese_conflict#:~:text=As%20of%202015%20%5B%20needs,troops%20took%20Damascus%20in%201918.)\\]. \n\nFor a more precise historical analysis, further research into specific ceasefire agreements and their durations would be necessary, as the provided sources do not quantify the success rate of ceasefires lasting beyond 60 days.\n\n\n## R1: B2: Over the past 50 years, how often have ceasefires in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, remained intact for more than a month amidst ongoing violations?\nAnswer:\nOver the past 50 years, ceasefires in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, have often been fragile and subject to violations. Historical data indicates that ceasefires in this region frequently experience breaches, yet they can still remain technically \"intact\" for extended periods. For instance, the 1996 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah included an oversight system similar to the current one, but lacked an enforcement mechanism, leading to ongoing violations without formal cessation of the ceasefire \\[[2](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=But%20if%20there%20are%20any,of%20the%20Beirut%20Exchange%20Foundation.)\\]. \n\nIn the current context, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which began in late November 2024, has already been tested by multiple skirmishes and violations, such as Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rocket attacks \\[[1](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=This%20is%20essentially%20the%20crux,the%20respective%20positions%20agreed%20upon.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-war-palestinians-ceasefire-hezbollah-lebanon-strained-by-strikes/#:~:text=White%20House%20national%20security%20spokesman,and%20infrastructure%20from%20southern%20Lebanon.)\\]\\[[6](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-war-palestinians-ceasefire-hezbollah-lebanon-strained-by-strikes/#:~:text=It%20said%20complaints%20to%20mediators,in%20the%20Lebanese%20security%20services.)\\]. Despite these incidents, the ceasefire is still considered to be holding, albeit tenuously, as there is no strict enforcement mechanism in place \\[[2](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=But%20if%20there%20are%20any,of%20the%20Beirut%20Exchange%20Foundation.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-war-palestinians-ceasefire-hezbollah-lebanon-strained-by-strikes/#:~:text=White%20House%20national%20security%20spokesman,and%20infrastructure%20from%20southern%20Lebanon.)\\]. This pattern of ceasefires being strained yet not officially broken is consistent with historical precedents in the region.\n\n\n## R1: B3: How often have ceasefire agreements in conflict zones, with third-party supervision similar to the current France and US involvement, been effective in maintaining peace for the duration of the initial agreement period?\nAnswer:\nCeasefire agreements in conflict zones with third-party supervision, such as the involvement of France and the US, have shown mixed effectiveness in maintaining peace for the duration of the initial agreement period. For instance, in Ukraine, a ceasefire agreement managed to keep fighting levels low for almost four months, despite daily violations and fatalities, suggesting that while third-party involvement can contribute to relative success, it does not guarantee complete adherence to the ceasefire \\[[1](https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/breaking-pattern-relative-success-latest-ceasefire-agreement-ukraine#:~:text=However%2C%20unlike%20previous%20ceasefires%20which,every%20three%20months%20on%20average.)\\]\\[[2](https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/breaking-pattern-relative-success-latest-ceasefire-agreement-ukraine#:~:text=In%20the%20three%20months%20following,success%20of%20the%20July%20truce.)\\]. \n\nResearch on ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War indicates that while ceasefires can serve as conflict-reduction mechanisms, they are often used strategically by parties to regroup or gain military advantage, which can undermine their effectiveness \\[[4](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/00220027221148655#:~:text=Despite%20the%20professed%20aim%20of,exploited%20by%20the%20other%20side.)\\]\\[[10](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00220027221148655#:~:text=Parties%20may%20agree%20to%20ceasefires,2000%20%3B%20Osgood%201962%20%29.)\\]. The success of ceasefires often depends on the credibility of the parties' commitment and the ability to build trust through gradual confidence-building measures \\[[10](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00220027221148655#:~:text=Parties%20may%20agree%20to%20ceasefires,2000%20%3B%20Osgood%201962%20%29.)\\]. Therefore, while third-party supervision can enhance the chances of a ceasefire holding, the underlying strategic interests of the conflicting parties and their commitment to peace are critical factors in determining the ceasefire's success.\n\n\n## R1: B4: What is the historical success rate of ceasefires that begin with an initial period of 60 days being extended or leading to longer-term peace agreements between Israel and its adversaries?\nAnswer:\nThe historical success rate of ceasefires between Israel and its adversaries, such as Lebanon and Hezbollah, being extended or leading to longer-term peace agreements is mixed and context-dependent. For instance, the 1996 Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire Understanding, which was a model for subsequent negotiations, established a framework to prevent attacks on civilian targets and was monitored by an international committee \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=In%20February%202024%2C%20it%20was,as%20launching%20grounds%20for%20attacks.)\\]\\[[6](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=It%20was%20announced%20at%2018%3A00,understandings%20by%20the%20two%20sides.)\\]. However, while this ceasefire reduced hostilities temporarily, it did not lead to a long-term peace agreement, as evidenced by the subsequent conflicts, including the 2006 Lebanon War \\[[4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceasefire_attempts_during_the_2006_Lebanon_War#:~:text=From%20Wikipedia%2C%20the%20free%20encyclopedia,Israeli%20sea%20and%20air%20blockade.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/why-israel-hezbollah-conflict-hasnt-escalated-to-war-rcna148096#:~:text=Hezbollah%2C%20which%20means%20%E2%80%9CParty%20of,more%20than%20100%20Israeli%20soldiers.)\\].\n\nThe 2006 conflict saw immediate calls for a ceasefire, but disagreements over conditions, such as the disarmament of Hezbollah, delayed its implementation \\[[4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceasefire_attempts_during_the_2006_Lebanon_War#:~:text=From%20Wikipedia%2C%20the%20free%20encyclopedia,Israeli%20sea%20and%20air%20blockade.)\\]. The ceasefire eventually brokered by the UN did not result in a lasting peace, as tensions and sporadic hostilities have continued \\[[11](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98ly11k9rwo#:~:text=%E2%80%9CYesterday%20was%20the%20most%20dangerous,from%20launching%20attacks%20on%20Israel.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98ly11k9rwo#:~:text=Nine%20people%20were%20killed%20in,and%20France%20in%20recent%20days.)\\]. These examples suggest that while ceasefires can temporarily halt hostilities, their extension into long-term peace agreements is rare without addressing underlying political and military issues.\n\n\n## R1: B5: How frequently have ceasefires been broken by significant escalations within the first month, given the presence of continued accusations of violations by both parties involved?\nAnswer:\nCeasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have historically been fragile, with accusations of violations often persisting even after agreements are reached. The current ceasefire, which began on November 27, 2024, has been described as successful in reducing daily violence, but both sides have accused each other of violations \\[[3](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/suspension-hostilities-israel-hezbollah-armed-conflict/#:~:text=A%20fragile%20ceasefire%20between%20Israel,other%20of%20violating%20the%20ceasefire.)\\]. Historically, ceasefires in this region have been prone to breaches, often within the first month, due to the complex political and military dynamics involved. For instance, the 2006 ceasefire under UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was frequently violated, although not always leading to full-scale hostilities \\[[2](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/suspension-hostilities-israel-hezbollah-armed-conflict/#:~:text=There%20have%20been%20other%20uses,the%20United%20States%20and%20France.)\\]. The current ceasefire is part of a 60-day truce, with significant troop movements and international oversight intended to stabilize the situation \\[[6](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/27/middleeast/visual-guide-map-israel-hezbollahs-ceasefire-intl-dg/index.html#:~:text=It%20starts%20a%2060%2Dday%20truce,Security%20Council%20Resolution%20in%202006.)\\]\\[[9](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-lebanon-hezbollah-ceasefire-3ed296f8317ecaa89c4e3548c75c9602#:~:text=Hezbollah%2C%20which%20began%20firing%20scores,south%20of%20the%20Litani%20River.)\\]. However, the potential for serious breaches remains, as mutual deterrence has shifted, and the geopolitical landscape is tense \\[[10](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/israel-lebanon-fragile-ceasefire/#:~:text=Israeli%20Defense%20Minister%20Israel%20Katz,mostly%20swung%20the%20opposite%20way.)\\]. The historical pattern suggests that while ceasefires can hold temporarily, the risk of significant escalations remains high, especially in the first month following their implementation.\n\n\n\n## R2: Q1: What is the current status of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah for a ceasefire?\nAnswer:\nAs of December 2024, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the United States, is in effect and generally holding, despite accusations of repeated violations by both sides. The ceasefire, which began on November 27, 2024, is set for a 60-day period and includes the withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah forces from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is required to move its forces north of the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometers from the Israeli border, and dismantle its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army, along with United Nations peacekeepers, is to be deployed in the area to ensure the withdrawal and maintain peace \\[[1](https://quillette.com/2024/12/11/after-the-ceasefire-israel-lebanon-hezbollah/#:~:text=That%20accord%2C%20which%20is%20designed,its%20armaments%20from%20the%20area.)\\]\\[[3](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/us-announces-first-israeli-withdrawal-lebanon-under-ceasefire-deal-3774386#:~:text=Austin%20%22emphasized%20that%20the%20ceasefire...,a%20period%20of%2060%20days.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/news/us-announces-first-israeli-withdrawal-lebanon-under-ceasefire-deal-3774386#:~:text=A%20ceasefire%20came%20into%20effect,military%20infrastructure%20in%20southern%20Lebanon.)\\].\n\nThe agreement also involves the demilitarization of Hezbollah under the supervision of an international committee led by the United States. However, the ceasefire does not address the cessation of Iranian-orchestrated rocket and drone attacks against Israel by Iran's proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen \\[[2](https://quillette.com/2024/12/11/after-the-ceasefire-israel-lebanon-hezbollah/#:~:text=The%20agreement%20calls%20for%20a,in%20Iraq%2C%20Syria%2C%20and%20Yemen.)\\]. The ceasefire is intended to evolve into a more permanent armistice, with the Lebanese Army taking control of the border areas to prevent re-armament by Hezbollah \\[[1](https://quillette.com/2024/12/11/after-the-ceasefire-israel-lebanon-hezbollah/#:~:text=That%20accord%2C%20which%20is%20designed,its%20armaments%20from%20the%20area.)\\]\\[[2](https://quillette.com/2024/12/11/after-the-ceasefire-israel-lebanon-hezbollah/#:~:text=The%20agreement%20calls%20for%20a,in%20Iraq%2C%20Syria%2C%20and%20Yemen.)\\].\n\n\n## R2: Q2: What have key decision-makers on both the Israeli and Hezbollah sides publicly stated about the possibility of a ceasefire?\nAnswer:\nKey decision-makers on both the Israeli and Hezbollah sides have expressed significant reservations about the ceasefire, which could impact its sustainability. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described Hezbollah's actions as severe violations of the ceasefire and has vowed to respond forcefully, indicating a low tolerance for perceived infractions \\[[13](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6273139ed4o#:~:text=Israeli%20Prime%20Minister%20Benjamin%20Netanyahu,area%20over%20the%20same%20period.)\\]. Israel has also sought assurances from the US that it could take unilateral action against Hezbollah if the Lebanese army fails to control Hezbollah's activities in southern Lebanon \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=A%20key%20point%20of%20contention,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Israel%20has%20sought%20assurances%20from,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]. This stance suggests that Israel is prepared to act independently if it feels the ceasefire is being violated.\n\nOn the Hezbollah side, the group has stated that it is ready to respond if Israel violates the truce, emphasizing their right to self-defense as recognized in the ceasefire agreement \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=A%20key%20point%20of%20contention,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Israel%20has%20sought%20assurances%20from,the%20two%20parties%20to%20self%2Ddefence%E2%80%9D.)\\]. Hezbollah has also linked its cessation of attacks to the end of Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which complicates the ceasefire's stability given the broader regional dynamics \\[[8](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21168/hamas-hezbollah-lies#:~:text=Hezbollah%20leaders%20said%20then%20that,north%20of%20the%20Litani%20River.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21168/hamas-hezbollah-lies#:~:text=%22%20Hezbollah%20declared%20war%20on,situation%20in%20the%20Gaza%20Strip.)\\]. These positions highlight the fragility of the ceasefire, with both sides maintaining a posture that could lead to renewed hostilities if their conditions are not met.\n\n\n## R2: Q3: What are the historical precedents for ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah, and how long have they typically lasted?\nAnswer:\nHistorically, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been fragile and often short-lived. The 2006 ceasefire, based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, ended a month-long war but was never fully implemented by either side, leading to periodic skirmishes and violations over the years \\[[5](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-least-worst-option/#:~:text=Enforcement%20In%20many%20ways%2C%20this,Lebanese%20Army%20into%20the%20area.)\\]. The current ceasefire, which began on November 27, 2024, is intended to last for 60 days, allowing displaced individuals to return home and for diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region \\[[9](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-least-worst-option/#:~:text=The%20ceasefire%20agreement%20reportedly%20has,incentive%20to%20make%20this%20happen.)\\]. However, both sides have accused each other of violations, and the ceasefire's long-term sustainability remains uncertain \\[[6](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/suspension-hostilities-israel-hezbollah-armed-conflict/#:~:text=A%20fragile%20ceasefire%20between%20Israel,other%20of%20violating%20the%20ceasefire.)\\]. The involvement of international mediators like the United States and France, and the presence of UN peacekeeping forces, are crucial in maintaining these ceasefires, but enforcement has historically been challenging \\[[1](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-26-24-intl-hnk/index.html#:~:text=That%20lasted%20until%20the%20day,operating%20close%20to%20its%20border.)\\]\\[[3](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=This%20is%20essentially%20the%20crux,the%20respective%20positions%20agreed%20upon.)\\].\n\n\n## R2: Q4: What are the major obstacles currently preventing a ceasefire agreement from being reached or sustained till January 1, 2025?\nAnswer:\nThe major obstacles preventing a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah from being reached or sustained until January 1, 2025, include several complex issues. Firstly, Israel demands that Hezbollah be pushed back beyond the Litani River, approximately 20 miles from its border, as a security guarantee for its northern residents who have been displaced by Hezbollah rocket fire \\[[2](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Over%20the%20past%20week%2C%20Lebanese%2C,airstrikes%20in%20Lebanon%20at%20will.)\\]. This demand is contentious, as it would require a significant shift in the balance of power and territory, which Hezbollah and Lebanese authorities find unacceptable \\[[4](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx24w9vwpelo#:~:text=A%20potential%20agreement%20would%20likely,because%20of%20Hezbollah%E2%80%99s%20rocket%20fire.)\\]. Additionally, Israel's insistence on having the unilateral right to enforce a ceasefire, potentially allowing it to conduct airstrikes in Lebanon at will, is another major sticking point, as Lebanese officials, including the speaker of the house, have rejected this condition \\[[10](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Central%20to%20ceasefire%20negotiations%20is,agree%20to%20such%20a%20condition.)\\].\n\nFurthermore, the political landscape in Lebanon complicates negotiations. The country has been without a president since October 2022 due to political gridlock, which adds another layer of difficulty in reaching a consensus on any ceasefire agreement \\[[12](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/19/israel-lebanon-gaza-war-hezbollah/#:~:text=Lebanon%20can%20carry%20out%20negotiations,make%20concessions%20in%20the%20north.)\\]. The presence of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and its significant influence over Lebanese politics further complicates the situation, as any agreement would need to be approved by Hezbollah, which has not publicly objected to increased Lebanese army presence in the south but continues to prepare for potential conflict \\[[9](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Amos%20Hochstein%2C%20a%20US%20envoy%2C,until%20a%20ceasefire%20was%20signed.)\\]. These factors, combined with the historical context of unresolved territorial disputes and the need for a comprehensive international monitoring mechanism, present significant challenges to achieving a sustainable ceasefire \\[[4](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx24w9vwpelo#:~:text=A%20potential%20agreement%20would%20likely,because%20of%20Hezbollah%E2%80%99s%20rocket%20fire.)\\]\\[[6](https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah#:~:text=Israel%20regularly%20violates%20Lebanese%20airspace%2C,perspective%2C%20both%20have%20their%20limits.)\\].\n\n\n## R2: Q5: What is the current level of military activity and tension between Israel and Hezbollah, and how has it changed in recent weeks?\nAnswer:\nAs of December 2024, the situation between Israel and Hezbollah remains tense, with recent military activities indicating a fragile ceasefire. On December 2, 2024, Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah positions in Lebanon following rocket attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli territory, marking the most significant escalation since a ceasefire was established just days earlier \\[[2](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/02/israel-airstrikes-lebanon-middle-east-crisis-latest-updates#:~:text=The%20Israeli%20airstrikes%20constituted%20the,after%20a%20ceasefire%20was%20announced.)\\]. The ceasefire agreement, which aims to end 13 months of conflict, includes provisions for Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon and for Israeli forces to withdraw from the area within 60 days \\[[3](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6273139ed4o#:~:text=Hezbollah%20has%20been%20given%2060,area%20over%20the%20same%20period.)\\]\\[[14](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6273139ed4o#:~:text=Monday%27s%20violence%20seen%20as%20an,area%20over%20the%20same%20period.)\\]. However, the ceasefire's stability is in question, as both sides have engaged in retaliatory actions, and key issues such as Israel's right to enforce truce violations unilaterally remain contentious \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=In%20Lebanon%2C%20fighting%20has%20had,be%20violations%20of%20the%20truce.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=Residents%20of%20south%20Lebanon%20had,from%20acting%20in%20south%20Lebanon.)\\].\n\nU.S. intelligence reports suggest that Hezbollah is currently operating with limited firepower, having lost more than half of its weapons stockpiles and thousands of fighters during the conflict. Despite these losses, Hezbollah still maintains thousands of short-range rockets and is attempting to rebuild its capabilities \\[[5](https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hezbollah-aims-rebuild-longer-term-despite-israeli-blows-us-intel-says-2024-12-04/#:~:text=In%20recent%20days%2C%20Israel%20has,Hezbollah%20has%20not%20been%20destroyed.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hezbollah-aims-rebuild-longer-term-despite-israeli-blows-us-intel-says-2024-12-04/#:~:text=It%20has%20lost%20more%20than,conduct%20command%20and%20control%20reduced.)\\]. This reduction in Hezbollah's military capacity could impact the likelihood of sustained hostilities, but the group's intent to continue functioning as a \"resistance\" against Israel suggests ongoing tensions \\[[8](https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hezbollah-aims-rebuild-longer-term-despite-israeli-blows-us-intel-says-2024-12-04/#:~:text=Hezbollah%20has%20long%20used%20Syria,after%20the%20ceasefire%20was%20reached.)\\].\n\n\n\n## R2: B1: How often have ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah lasted for more than 30 days after being established?\nAnswer:\nCeasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have historically been fragile and often short-lived. The 2006 ceasefire, brokered by the United Nations through Resolution 1701, is one of the more notable agreements, which aimed to end hostilities and establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. However, the resolution was never fully implemented, as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) failed to maintain control over southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah continued to operate in the area \\[[14](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/suspension-hostilities-israel-hezbollah-armed-conflict/#:~:text=Following%20the%20adoption%20of%20the,as%20Hezbollah%2C%20from%20operating%20there.)\\]. This lack of enforcement and continued tensions have often led to the resumption of hostilities.\n\nIn the current context, the ceasefire agreement that began on November 26, 2024, is designed to be permanent, with a 60-day period for Hezbollah to remove its fighters and weapons from the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River, and for Israel to withdraw its forces \\[[4](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d3gj9ewxo#:~:text=The%20ceasefire%20is%20meant%20to,to%20return%20to%20their%20homes.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2d3gj9ewxo#:~:text=In%20a%20joint%20statement%2C%20the,%2820%20miles%29%20to%20the%20north.)\\]. However, the absence of a robust enforcement mechanism and the potential for differing interpretations of violations could undermine its longevity \\[[10](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=But%20if%20there%20are%20any,of%20the%20Beirut%20Exchange%20Foundation.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=The%20Israeli%20authorities%20insist%20Thursday%27s,it%27s%20not%20an%20enforcement%20mechanism.)\\]. Historically, the lack of enforcement and ongoing regional tensions have made it challenging for ceasefires to last beyond 30 days, suggesting that the current ceasefire may face similar challenges.\n\n\n## R2: B2: How often have ceasefires in the Middle East involving non-state actors and state forces remained in effect for over two months?\nAnswer:\nCeasefires in the Middle East involving non-state actors and state forces have historically been fragile and often short-lived. For instance, during the 2014 Gaza conflict, there were at least eight temporary ceasefires, but the sustainability of these agreements was uncertain, as noted by a U.S. State Department spokeswoman who emphasized the challenges in achieving a durable ceasefire \\[[3](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/26/gaza-ceasefire-israel-palestinians-halt-fighting#:~:text=%22%20A%20US%20state%20department,the%20course%20of%20the%20conflict.)\\]. More recently, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in 2023 was extended multiple times but ultimately collapsed, highlighting the difficulty in maintaining long-term peace agreements in the region \\[[2](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/30/israel-hamas-war-ceasefire-extension-one-day-details-gaza-hostages-palestine#:~:text=The%20current%20extension%20appears%20to,pause%20will%20continue%2C%E2%80%9D%20it%20said.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.axios.com/2023/12/01/gaza-ceasefire-collapse-israel-hostages#:~:text=In%20a%20statement%2C%20the%20Mossad,for%20up%20to%20nine%20days.)\\]. These examples suggest that while ceasefires can be initiated, their longevity, especially beyond two months, is not common due to the complex and volatile nature of the conflicts.\n\n\n## R2: B3: How often have ceasefires brokered by international mediators between Israel and Hezbollah remained active for the entire duration of the agreement?\nAnswer:\nCeasefires between Israel and Hezbollah, often brokered by international mediators, have historically been fragile and frequently violated. The 2006 ceasefire, based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, is a notable example. Although it officially ended the 2006 war, the resolution was never fully implemented by either party, with both Israel and Hezbollah accused of violations over the years \\[[3](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-least-worst-option/#:~:text=Enforcement%20In%20many%20ways%2C%20this,Lebanese%20Army%20into%20the%20area.)\\]\\[[9](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-least-worst-option/#:~:text=It%20is%20ironic%20that%20the,any%20Israeli%20soldier%20would%20withdraw.)\\]. The current ceasefire, which began in late November 2024, is similarly precarious. It is designed to last 60 days, with terms that include the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and the deployment of Lebanese forces \\[[3](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-least-worst-option/#:~:text=Enforcement%20In%20many%20ways%2C%20this,Lebanese%20Army%20into%20the%20area.)\\]\\[[10](https://www.rferl.org/a/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-cease-fire-civilians/33217409.html#:~:text=%22This%20is%20designed%20to%20be,south%20of%20the%20Litani%20River.)\\]. However, the agreement allows Israel to respond forcefully to any violations by Hezbollah, which could lead to renewed hostilities \\[[11](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/388407/ceasefire-lebanon-israel-hezbollah-biden-netanyahu-us#:~:text=Israeli%20Prime%20Minister%20Benjamin%20Netanyahu,as%20part%20of%20the%20agreement.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/388407/ceasefire-lebanon-israel-hezbollah-biden-netanyahu-us#:~:text=Ideally%2C%20a%20framework%20for%20a,that%20would%20constitute%20a%20violation.)\\]. Given this context, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have rarely remained active for their entire duration without violations or renewed conflict.\n\n\n## R2: B4: How often have ceasefires with accusations of violations by both parties remained effective until the end of their term?\nAnswer:\nCeasefires between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah have historically been fragile, often marked by accusations of violations from both sides. For instance, the 1996 Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire Understanding, which was monitored by a committee including representatives from the US, France, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon, aimed to prevent attacks on civilian targets and was considered a model for future negotiations \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=The%20Monitoring%20Committee%20for%20the,kind%20of%20weapon%20into%20Israel.)\\]\\[[5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=Under%20its%20terms%2C%20both%20sides,end%20the%20Israel%E2%80%93Hamas%20war%20.)\\]. Despite these efforts, ceasefires have frequently been short-lived. For example, during the South Lebanon conflict (1985\u20132000), mutual agreements to cease hostilities were often followed by renewed violence, such as the major artillery exchange on August 17, 1993, shortly after a ceasefire was declared \\[[4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Lebanon_conflict_(1985%E2%80%932000)#:~:text=One%20Israeli%20soldier%20and%208%E2%80%9350,killed%20in%20two%20Hezbollah%20attacks.)\\].\n\nThe 2008 Israel-Hamas ceasefire also illustrates the challenges of maintaining ceasefires amid mutual accusations of violations. Although there was a significant reduction in hostilities, with rocket and mortar attacks decreasing by 98% during the ceasefire period, the truce eventually broke down due to disagreements over terms and continued border closures by Israel \\[[11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire#:~:text=Under%20pressure%20from%20Hamas%2C%20Islamic,the%20beginning%20of%20the%20ceasefire.)\\]\\[[14](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire#:~:text=%22%20On%2020%20December%2C%20Hamas,cooperate%20on%20a%20cease%2Dfire%20agreement.)\\]. These historical patterns suggest that while ceasefires can temporarily reduce violence, they often struggle to remain effective until the end of their term when both parties accuse each other of violations.\n\n\n## R2: B5: How often have ceasefires involving Israeli withdrawal from contested areas remained intact until the end of the agreed period?\nAnswer:\nCeasefires involving Israeli withdrawal from contested areas have historically been fragile and often subject to violations. For instance, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that began on November 27, 2024, has been described as fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations, although it has broadly succeeded in reducing hostilities \\[[9](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/suspension-hostilities-israel-hezbollah-armed-conflict/#:~:text=A%20fragile%20ceasefire%20between%20Israel,other%20of%20violating%20the%20ceasefire.)\\]. Historically, the 2000 withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, verified by the UN, was a significant event, but the Blue Line established then has not always prevented hostilities \\[[7](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/suspension-hostilities-israel-hezbollah-armed-conflict/#:~:text=Still%2C%20it%20is%20not%20a,matters%20involving%20the%20two%20States.)\\]. The Oslo Accords, which involved Israeli withdrawal from parts of the West Bank, also faced challenges, with large areas remaining under Israeli control and ongoing tensions \\[[6](https://education.cfr.org/learn/timeline/israeli-palestinian-conflict-timeline#:~:text=Secret%20negotiations%20in%20Norway%20result,the%20Israeli%20military%E2%80%99s%20exclusive%20control.)\\]. These examples suggest that while ceasefires can be established, their sustainability is often uncertain, especially when involving territorial withdrawals.\n\n\n\n## R3: Q1: What are the latest developments in the negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah regarding the ceasefire deal?\nAnswer:\nThe ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the U.S. and France, came into effect on November 27, 2024. It includes a 60-day period during which Israeli forces are to withdraw from southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese army forces tasked with overseeing Hezbollah's demilitarization \\[[2](https://thedispatch.com/article/did-israel-win-the-third-lebanon-war/#:~:text=With%20the%20start%20last%20week,to%20rearm%2C%20we%20will%20attack.)\\]. However, the situation remains tense, with both sides accusing each other of violations. Israel has reportedly violated the ceasefire 52 times since its establishment, according to French supervision \\[[11](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=They%20landed%20in%20an%20open,52%20times%20since%20its%20establishment.)\\]. In response to these violations, Hezbollah launched rockets at an Israeli watchtower, marking the first attack since the ceasefire began \\[[15](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=The%20Israeli%20prime%20minister%2C%20Benjamin,Israel%20of%20the%20ceasefire%20agreement.)\\]. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to respond strongly to any violations by Hezbollah, emphasizing Israel's right to enforce the ceasefire terms unilaterally if necessary \\[[6](https://thedispatch.com/article/did-israel-win-the-third-lebanon-war/#:~:text=While%20the%20evacuees%20anxiously%20wait,in%20a%20speech%20last%20week.)\\]\\[[10](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=In%20north%20Israel%2C%20more%20than,an%20encroachment%20of%20Lebanese%20sovereignty.)\\].\n\nThe ceasefire is based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war but was never fully implemented \\[[12](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-least-worst-option/#:~:text=Enforcement%20In%20many%20ways%2C%20this,Lebanese%20Army%20into%20the%20area.)\\]. The agreement aims to allow over 1 million displaced people from southern Lebanon and over 60,000 from northern Israel to return home \\[[5](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-least-worst-option/#:~:text=The%20ceasefire%20agreement%20reportedly%20has,incentive%20to%20make%20this%20happen.)\\]. However, the success of the ceasefire is uncertain, as both sides remain on high alert, and the potential for renewed conflict looms if the truce does not hold \\[[3](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-cease-fire-violations.html#:~:text=When%20we%20have%20confirmed%20access%2C,Dec.%203%2C%202024%2C%205%3A13%20a.m.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2581346/middle-east#:~:text=%E2%80%9CI%20don%E2%80%99t%20think%20we%20have,partly%20driven%20by%20internal%20challenges.)\\].\n\n\n## R3: Q2: What have key leaders in Israel and Hezbollah said about the potential ceasefire deal?\nAnswer:\nKey leaders in Israel and Hezbollah have expressed differing views on the potential ceasefire deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has endorsed a 60-day truce, which would involve Israel gradually withdrawing its forces from southern Lebanon while Hezbollah moves its forces north, away from the Israeli border. This agreement, mediated by American and French diplomats, aims to allow Israel to rebuild its weapon stockpiles and isolate Hamas, a Hezbollah ally \\[[8](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/world/middleeast/israel-lebanon-ceasefire.html#:~:text=Prime%20Minister%20Benjamin%20Netanyahu%20endorsed,more%20troops%20to%20Lebanon%E2%80%99s%20south.)\\]. However, Israel insists on maintaining the right to take military action in Lebanon if it feels threatened, emphasizing the need to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing its military presence near the border and from acquiring new weapons \\[[14](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/20/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-hezbollah-envoy-beirut/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1732136137#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Israeli%20enemy%20cannot%20enter,in%20any%20way%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20added.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/20/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-hezbollah-envoy-beirut/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1732136137#:~:text=Israel%E2%80%99s%20foreign%20minister%20said%20shortly,Hezbollah%20have%20backed%20to%20negotiate.)\\].\n\nOn the other hand, Hezbollah's new secretary-general, Naim Qassem, has stated that the success of the ceasefire depends on Israel's seriousness in negotiations. He accused Israel of trying to achieve through negotiations what it could not on the battlefield and emphasized that Hezbollah is prepared for a prolonged conflict if necessary \\[[7](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/20/israel-lebanon-ceasefire-hezbollah-envoy-beirut/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1732136137#:~:text=Naim%20Qassem%2C%20Hezbollah%E2%80%99s%20new%20secretary%2Dgeneral%2C,we%20will%20continue%20to%20fight.)\\]. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has indicated that the group would adhere to a ceasefire in southern Lebanon if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, but warned of resuming attacks if Israel continues its strikes in Lebanon after any agreement with Hamas \\[[5](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hezbollah-france-lebanon-border-war-54b7e874169478b6f0a2b821ec07489a#:~:text=He%20said%20there%20is%20a,should%20be%20reached%20in%20Gaza.)\\]\\[[12](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hezbollah-france-lebanon-border-war-54b7e874169478b6f0a2b821ec07489a#:~:text=Hezbollah%20leader%20Hassan%20Nasrallah%20said,share%20the%20information%20with%20journalists.)\\]. These positions highlight the complexities and challenges in reaching a sustainable ceasefire agreement between the two parties.\n\n\n## R3: Q3: What is the historical success rate of ceasefire deals between Israel and Hezbollah or similar conflicts in the region?\nAnswer:\nThe historical success rate of ceasefire deals between Israel and Hezbollah, or similar conflicts in the region, tends to be low due to the fragile nature of such agreements. Ceasefires in the Middle East have been relatively rare, especially from 1990 until the early 2000s, with an increase in agreements starting in 2014 due to conflicts like the Gaza War between Hamas and Israel \\[[15](https://css.ethz.ch/en/center/CSS-news/2022/11/why-conflict-parties-cease-fighting.html#:~:text=In%20Africa%20and%20Asia%2C%20ceasefires,accidentally%20killed%20by%20rebel%20attacks.)\\]. Temporary ceasefires are particularly fragile because as the expiration date approaches, there is an incentive for each side to go on the offensive to gain an advantage, leading to a tendency for these agreements to unravel \\[[1](https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/27/do-ceasefires-ever-work/#:~:text=But%20if%20the%20ceasefire%20fails,advantage%20over%20the%20other%20side.)\\]\\[[2](https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/27/do-ceasefires-ever-work/#:~:text=All%20ceasefires%20are%20fragile%2C%20but,have%20a%20tendency%20to%20unravel.)\\]. \n\nIn general, ceasefires are more likely to be agreed upon during periods of intense conflict or when there is significant civilian casualty, as parties may seek to de-escalate the situation \\[[15](https://css.ethz.ch/en/center/CSS-news/2022/11/why-conflict-parties-cease-fighting.html#:~:text=In%20Africa%20and%20Asia%2C%20ceasefires,accidentally%20killed%20by%20rebel%20attacks.)\\]. However, without impartial observers to monitor compliance, the likelihood of maintaining a ceasefire decreases, as parties may violate terms without accountability \\[[13](https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/27/do-ceasefires-ever-work/#:~:text=Why%20is%20this%20so%3F%20Impartial,maintaining%20a%20ceasefire%20more%20likely.)\\]\\[[14](https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/27/do-ceasefires-ever-work/#:~:text=Impartial%20observers%20make%20it%20more,other%20about%20intentions%20for%20peace.)\\]. This context suggests that while ceasefires can be negotiated, their sustainability is often challenged by strategic incentives and lack of enforcement mechanisms.\n\n\n## R3: Q4: What are the main points of contention or obstacles that could prevent the ceasefire from being implemented or maintained?\nAnswer:\nThe main points of contention or obstacles that could prevent a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah from being implemented or maintained include several critical issues. Firstly, Israel's demand for Hezbollah to be pushed back beyond the Litani River as a security guarantee is a significant sticking point. This demand is coupled with Israel's insistence on having the power to unilaterally enforce a ceasefire, which would allow it to carry out airstrikes in Lebanon at will. This condition has been outright rejected by Lebanese officials, with the Lebanese speaker of the house, Nabih Berri, stating that \"no sane person\" would agree to such terms \\[[1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Over%20the%20past%20week%2C%20Lebanese%2C,airstrikes%20in%20Lebanon%20at%20will.)\\]\\[[2](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Central%20to%20ceasefire%20negotiations%20is,agree%20to%20such%20a%20condition.)\\].\n\nAdditionally, the strategic balance of power in the region poses a challenge. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized the need for a fundamental change in the strategic status quo to ensure the safety of northern Israeli residents, which may not be achievable diplomatically without significant concessions from Hezbollah \\[[5](https://www.afpc.org/publications/articles/israel-and-hezbollah-are-headed-toward-a-new-war#:~:text=Israeli%20Prime%20Minister%20Benjamin%20Netanyahu,demilitarized%20zone%20in%20south%20Lebanon.)\\]. Furthermore, Hezbollah's stance, as articulated by its secretary general Naim Qassem, is that the group will not cease fighting until a ceasefire is signed, and it will not accept any truce that allows Israel to enter Lebanon \"whenever it wants\" \\[[4](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Hezbollah%20has%20not%20objected%20to,of%20more%20than%20a%20month.)\\]. These entrenched positions highlight the deep-seated mistrust and the complex geopolitical dynamics that could hinder the establishment and maintenance of a ceasefire.\n\n\n## R3: Q5: How have recent military activities between Israel and Hezbollah evolved, and have there been any signs of de-escalation?\nAnswer:\nRecent military activities between Israel and Hezbollah have seen a resurgence of hostilities despite a ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S. and France. The ceasefire, which began last week, aimed to end 13 months of conflict and required Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days, while Hezbollah was given the same period to end its armed presence in the area \\[[4](https://thedispatch.com/article/did-israel-win-the-third-lebanon-war/#:~:text=Over%20the%20course%20of%20nearly,more%20than%20a%20year%20away.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6273139ed4o#:~:text=Hezbollah%20has%20been%20given%2060,area%20over%20the%20same%20period.)\\]. However, the situation remains tense, with Israel conducting airstrikes in response to Hezbollah rocket attacks, marking the most serious escalation since the ceasefire was established \\[[3](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/02/israel-airstrikes-lebanon-middle-east-crisis-latest-updates#:~:text=The%20Israeli%20airstrikes%20constituted%20the,after%20a%20ceasefire%20was%20announced.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/02/netanyahu-threatens-to-respond-strongly-after-hezbollah-rocket-attack#:~:text=The%20Israeli%20prime%20minister%2C%20Benjamin,Israel%20of%20the%20ceasefire%20agreement.)\\]. \n\nHezbollah has suffered significant losses, with over 4,000 fighters killed and more than half of its weapons stockpiles depleted, according to U.S. intelligence assessments \\[[9](https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hezbollah-aims-rebuild-longer-term-despite-israeli-blows-us-intel-says-2024-12-04/#:~:text=It%20has%20lost%20more%20than,conduct%20command%20and%20control%20reduced.)\\]\\[[10](https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hezbollah-aims-rebuild-longer-term-despite-israeli-blows-us-intel-says-2024-12-04/#:~:text=U.S.%20intelligence%20agencies%20assess%20that,transport%20routes%2C%20the%20sources%20said.)\\]. Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah maintains thousands of short-range rockets and is attempting to rebuild its capabilities \\[[9](https://www.reuters.com/world/lebanons-hezbollah-aims-rebuild-longer-term-despite-israeli-blows-us-intel-says-2024-12-04/#:~:text=It%20has%20lost%20more%20than,conduct%20command%20and%20control%20reduced.)\\]. The ceasefire's fragility is underscored by ongoing violations, including Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah's retaliatory actions \\[[15](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-conducts-military-operations-in-southern-lebanon-despite-cease-fire/3410493#:~:text=In%20a%20statement%2C%20the%20army,two%20fatalities%20and%2010%20wounded.)\\]. The success of the ceasefire largely depends on whether displaced residents feel secure enough to return to their homes and whether both parties adhere to the terms of the agreement \\[[4](https://thedispatch.com/article/did-israel-win-the-third-lebanon-war/#:~:text=Over%20the%20course%20of%20nearly,more%20than%20a%20year%20away.)\\]\\[[8](https://thedispatch.com/article/did-israel-win-the-third-lebanon-war/#:~:text=The%20conflict%20killed%20more%20than,police%20any%20violations%20through%20force.)\\].\n\n\n\n## R3: B1: How often have ceasefire agreements been maintained between Israel and Hezbollah for at least 30 days in the past 20 years?\nAnswer:\nIn the past 20 years, ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hezbollah have been notably fragile and often short-lived. The most significant ceasefire was established by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War. However, this resolution was never fully implemented, as Hezbollah continued to operate in southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) failed to maintain control over the area \\[[12](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/suspension-hostilities-israel-hezbollah-armed-conflict/#:~:text=Following%20the%20adoption%20of%20the,as%20Hezbollah%2C%20from%20operating%20there.)\\]. Despite the formal cessation of hostilities, there have been numerous skirmishes and violations, indicating that maintaining a ceasefire for at least 30 days has been challenging.\n\nThe current ceasefire agreement, which began in late November 2024, aims for a 60-day halt to fighting, with international monitoring and a requirement for Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon \\[[9](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-lebanon-hezbollah-11-26-2024-aa165645d900a3d681ad127e05b0c561#:~:text=The%20ceasefire%20calls%20for%20an,country%2C%20according%20to%20local%20authorities.)\\]. However, the lack of a robust enforcement mechanism and the history of previous agreements suggest that sustaining a ceasefire for an extended period remains uncertain \\[[8](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=But%20if%20there%20are%20any,of%20the%20Beirut%20Exchange%20Foundation.)\\]. This historical context highlights the difficulty in maintaining long-term ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah.\n\n\n## R3: B2: How often have ceasefire agreements in the Middle East been successfully maintained for at least 60 days after violations were reported?\nAnswer:\nCeasefire agreements in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah, have historically been fragile and often violated shortly after implementation. For instance, the 2006 ceasefire agreement, monitored by the United States and France, was frequently violated despite its clear terms prohibiting attacks on civilians and civilian targets \\[[9](https://www.hrw.org/reports/2007/iopt0807/9.htm#:~:text=233%20The%20conflict%20ended%20in,as%20launching%20grounds%20for%20attacks.)\\]\\[[15](https://www.hrw.org/reports/2007/iopt0807/9.htm#:~:text=The%20agreement%2C%20according%20to%20the,exercising%20the%20right%20of%20self%2Ddefense.)\\]. The current ceasefire, which took effect in November 2024, has already seen multiple violations by Israel, according to the Lebanese army \\[[1](https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241128-israel-and-hezbollah-fragile-ceasefire-falters-amid-violations?utm_slink=go.france24.com%2FgvO&utm_term=France24_en&utm_campaign=twitter&utm_source=nonli&utm_medium=social#:~:text=A%20multinational%20commission%2C%20including%20the,lies%20in%20Lebanon%E2%80%99s%20military%20capacity.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241128-israel-and-hezbollah-fragile-ceasefire-falters-amid-violations?utm_slink=go.france24.com%2FgvO&utm_term=France24_en&utm_campaign=twitter&utm_source=nonli&utm_medium=social#:~:text=The%20Lebanese%20army%20on%20Thursday,do%20much%20better%20this%20time.)\\]. This pattern of violations suggests that maintaining a ceasefire for at least 60 days after violations have been reported is challenging. The historical context indicates that such agreements are often short-lived, with violations occurring within weeks or even days, making the successful maintenance of a ceasefire for 60 days a rare occurrence.\n\n\n## R3: B3: How often have ceasefire agreements involved third-party brokers like the U.S. and France and been maintained for at least 30 days?\nAnswer:\nCeasefire agreements between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah have often involved third-party brokers like the United States and France. For instance, the current ceasefire, which began in late November 2024, was brokered by the U.S. and France, with the U.S. chairing a commission to monitor adherence to the deal \\[[2](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=This%20is%20essentially%20the%20crux,the%20respective%20positions%20agreed%20upon.)\\]\\[[10](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-war-palestinians-ceasefire-hezbollah-lebanon-strained-by-strikes/#:~:text=Officials%20in%20the%20U.S.%20%E2%80%94,get%20it%20down%20to%20zero.)\\]. Historically, such third-party involvement has been crucial in maintaining ceasefires, although the effectiveness can vary based on the enforcement mechanisms in place. In the current agreement, while the U.S. and France are involved, there is no strict enforcement mechanism, which could affect the longevity of the ceasefire \\[[5](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=But%20if%20there%20are%20any,of%20the%20Beirut%20Exchange%20Foundation.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=The%20Israeli%20authorities%20insist%20Thursday%27s,it%27s%20not%20an%20enforcement%20mechanism.)\\].\n\nRegarding the maintenance of ceasefires for at least 30 days, the current ceasefire agreement stipulates a 60-day halt to fighting, with the hope of reaching a permanent cessation of hostilities \\[[1](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-tank-fires-3-south-lebanese-towns-lebanese-security-sources-media-say-2024-11-28/#:~:text=The%20truce%20lasts%20for%2060,facilities%20north%20of%20the%20river.)\\]\\[[8](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-lebanon-hezbollah-11-26-2024-aa165645d900a3d681ad127e05b0c561#:~:text=The%20ceasefire%20calls%20for%20an,country%2C%20according%20to%20local%20authorities.)\\]. However, the presence of ongoing skirmishes and the lack of a robust enforcement mechanism may challenge the sustainability of this ceasefire beyond the initial period \\[[3](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-war-palestinians-ceasefire-hezbollah-lebanon-strained-by-strikes/#:~:text=White%20House%20national%20security%20spokesman,and%20infrastructure%20from%20southern%20Lebanon.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=A%20team%20of%20representatives%20will,leave%20it%20open%20to%20interpretation.)\\]. Historical data on previous ceasefires, such as the 1996 agreement, suggest that while third-party involvement can help, the absence of enforcement mechanisms often leads to challenges in maintaining long-term peace \\[[5](https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis#:~:text=But%20if%20there%20are%20any,of%20the%20Beirut%20Exchange%20Foundation.)\\].\n\n\n## R3: B4: How often have ceasefires been successfully maintained between parties with ongoing military activities and accusations of violations in the past 30 years?\nAnswer:\nIn the past 30 years, ceasefires between parties with ongoing military activities and accusations of violations have had mixed success. For instance, the 1996 Israeli-Lebanese Ceasefire Understanding, which was monitored by a committee including representatives from the US, France, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon, aimed to end cross-border attacks on civilian targets and was considered a model for future negotiations \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=The%20Monitoring%20Committee%20for%20the,kind%20of%20weapon%20into%20Israel.)\\]\\[[6](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=Under%20its%20terms%2C%20both%20sides,end%20the%20Israel%E2%80%93Hamas%20war%20.)\\]. Despite this, both sides have been reported to violate ceasefire agreements, such as Israel's near-daily flights over Lebanese territory and Hezbollah's failure to disarm, although the situation has generally remained calm since 2006 \\[[14](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Lebanese_conflict#:~:text=Hostilities%20were%20suspended%20on%208,what%20would%20become%20Syria%20.)\\].\n\nThe success of ceasefires often depends on the specific terms and the willingness of parties to adhere to them. For example, the 1996 agreement included commitments to refrain from using civilian areas for attacks and allowed for self-defense measures if the agreement was violated \\[[9](https://www.hrw.org/reports/2007/iopt0807/9.htm#:~:text=The%20agreement%2C%20according%20to%20the,exercising%20the%20right%20of%20self%2Ddefense.)\\]\\[[12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-Lebanese_Ceasefire_Understanding#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20understands%20that,groups%20responsible%20for%20the%20attack.)\\]. However, the presence of influential groups like Hezbollah, which has significant sway over Lebanese politics, complicates negotiations, as seen in recent talks where Israel demanded Hezbollah's withdrawal beyond the Litani River for security reasons \\[[3](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Over%20the%20past%20week%2C%20Lebanese%2C,airstrikes%20in%20Lebanon%20at%20will.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/20/us-envoy-says-positive-progress-made-in-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-talks#:~:text=Central%20to%20ceasefire%20negotiations%20is,agree%20to%20such%20a%20condition.)\\]. These complexities highlight the challenges in maintaining ceasefires in regions with ongoing tensions and accusations of violations.\n\n\n## R3: B5: How often have ceasefire agreements been successfully maintained after significant escalations, such as assassinations of key leaders, in the region?\nAnswer:\nCeasefire agreements in the Israel-Lebanon/Hezbollah context have historically been fragile and often short-lived, especially following significant escalations such as assassinations or major military confrontations. For instance, the 1996 \"Grapes of Wrath\" operation led to a ceasefire understanding brokered by the United States, but it did not result in a lasting peace, as hostilities resumed in subsequent years \\[[11](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/text-of-israel-lebanon-cease-fire-understanding#:~:text=It%20is%20recognized%20that%20the,climate%20of%20stability%20and%20tranquility.)\\]\\[[13](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/text-of-israel-lebanon-cease-fire-understanding#:~:text=Toward%20this%20end%2C%20the%20United,0400%20hours%2C%20April%2027%2C%201996.)\\]. More recently, the maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel in 2022 was seen as a temporary de-escalation, but underlying tensions and the potential for conflict remain high, particularly given Hezbollah's strategic role as an Iranian proxy and its significant military capabilities \\[[2](https://www.hoover.org/research/rare-maritime-deal-between-lebanon-and-israel-calms-ruffled-waters-conflict-hezbollah-will#:~:text=However%2C%20such%20calculations%20are%20extremely,arsenal%20of%20precision%2Dguided%20sub%2Dballistic%20missiles.)\\]\\[[6](https://www.hoover.org/research/rare-maritime-deal-between-lebanon-and-israel-calms-ruffled-waters-conflict-hezbollah-will#:~:text=The%20conclusion%20of%20the%20maritime,gas%20exploration%20in%20Lebanese%20waters.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.hoover.org/research/rare-maritime-deal-between-lebanon-and-israel-calms-ruffled-waters-conflict-hezbollah-will#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20three%20weeks,attacks%20in%20Syria%20and%20Iran.)\\].\n\nThe unpredictability of conflict dynamics in the region is further compounded by the complex interplay of local and international political factors. For example, while there is often a preference for limited conflicts rather than full-scale wars due to the devastating potential consequences, the situation can rapidly escalate beyond control \\[[3](https://www.hoover.org/research/rare-maritime-deal-between-lebanon-and-israel-calms-ruffled-waters-conflict-hezbollah-will#:~:text=In%20multiple%20conversations%20during%20the,negotiations%20and%20Hezbollah%E2%80%99s%20aggressive%20stance.)\\]\\[[10](https://www.hoover.org/research/rare-maritime-deal-between-lebanon-and-israel-calms-ruffled-waters-conflict-hezbollah-will#:~:text=Some%20of%20them%20noted%2C%20however%2C,in%20Syria%2C%20Iraq%20and%20Yemen.)\\]. This historical context suggests that while ceasefires can be established, their maintenance is highly contingent on broader geopolitical developments and internal political calculations within both Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah.\n\n\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nBefore providing my forecast, I'll address each point as follows:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known**: There are 11 days left until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed**: If the current situation remains unchanged, with the ceasefire technically holding despite accusations of violations, the outcome would likely resolve as \"Yes.\"\n\n(c) **Most important factors influencing resolution**:\n- Continued adherence or violations of the ceasefire by both Israel and Hezbollah.\n- The role of international mediators, particularly the US and France, in maintaining or strengthening the ceasefire.\n- Any significant provocations or escalations that might arise in the remaining days.\n- Domestic political pressures within Israel and Lebanon, which could influence military decisions.\n\n(d) **Unknowns that should give pause**:\n- The internal dynamics and decision-making processes within Hezbollah and the Israeli government.\n- Potential unforeseen events or triggers that could lead to a breakdown of the ceasefire.\n- The effectiveness of the mechanisms in place to address violations, given the lack of enforcement structures.\n\n(e) **Forecast using historical precedent**: Historically, ceasefires in this region often experience breaches but can hold technically. This suggests a moderate probability of the ceasefire being effective for at least the short term.\n\n(f) **Forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left**: With less time remaining, the probability of the ceasefire holding would slightly increase due to the shorter period for potential escalations.\n\n(g) **Forecast if there was 4x the time left**: With more time, there would be a greater chance for violations and potential escalations, decreasing the likelihood of the ceasefire remaining intact.\n\n**Rationale**: Given the current state of the ceasefire, with both sides accusing each other of violations yet no major breaches leading to a complete breakdown, the likelihood of the ceasefire holding until January 1, 2025, seems relatively high. The involvement of international bodies and the historical tendency for ceasefires to endure despite violations support this view. However, the complex political and military dynamics in the region and the absence of strong enforcement mechanisms introduce some uncertainty.\n\n**Final Answer**: \"Probability: 75%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately 11 days.\n\n(b) If nothing changed, the outcome would likely be \"Yes,\" as the ceasefire is currently active, albeit with reported violations.\n\n(c) The most important factors that will influence a successful resolution include:\n- The level of adherence to the ceasefire terms by both Israel and Hezbollah.\n- The effectiveness of international monitoring and mediation efforts, particularly by France and the US.\n- Political will from both sides to maintain the ceasefire, despite provocations or violations.\n- Any significant military actions or escalations that could disrupt the ceasefire.\n\n(d) Factors that should give pause and lower confidence include:\n- The history of fragile ceasefires in the region, where violations are common.\n- The lack of a robust enforcement mechanism within the ceasefire agreement.\n- The ongoing accusations of violations by both parties, which could lead to renewed hostilities.\n\n(e) If I were to use only historical precedent without current information, I would estimate a lower probability of the ceasefire holding, given the region's history of short-lived agreements. Historically, many ceasefires do not last beyond a month without significant violations.\n\n(f) If there was only a quarter of the time left (approximately 3 days), I would forecast a higher probability of the ceasefire holding, as it is less likely for a significant escalation to occur in such a short timeframe if it hasn't already.\n\n(g) If there were 4x the time left (approximately 44 days), I would forecast a lower probability, as the extended period increases the likelihood of significant violations or escalations occurring, given the volatile nature of the conflict.\n\nRationale:\nThe current ceasefire is active and has managed to hold despite violations. However, the situation remains tense, with both sides poised for potential retaliation. The historical context of Middle East ceasefires suggests a pattern of fragility, but the short timeframe until the resolution date increases the likelihood of the ceasefire remaining intact. The involvement of international actors like France and the US could also play a stabilizing role, although their influence has limitations. Given these factors, while acknowledging the possibility of unforeseen escalations, the probability of the ceasefire being active on January 1, 2025, is relatively high.\n\nProbability: 75%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\nBefore answering the question, let's evaluate the situation based on the specified criteria:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** As today is December 21, 2024, there are 11 days left until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:** If no significant changes occur over the next 11 days, the ceasefire established on November 27, 2024, would likely be considered active, albeit tenuously, due to ongoing accusations of violations. The situation currently suggests that the ceasefire is holding, despite daily reports of breaches.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution:**\n- The level of restraint both parties demonstrate in response to perceived violations.\n- The effectiveness of third-party supervision by the US and France in mediating tensions and maintaining open communication.\n- The willingness of both Israel and Hezbollah to adhere to the terms of the ceasefire, particularly regarding military movements and operational boundaries.\n- Any potential escalation triggered by significant incidents, such as major attacks or assassinations.\n\n(d) **What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence:** \n- The internal decision-making dynamics within Hezbollah and Israel that could influence compliance or violation of the ceasefire.\n- The exact mechanisms of communication and enforcement by international mediators, which could either stabilize or destabilize the situation.\n- Any undisclosed military or diplomatic agreements that could impact the ceasefire's sustainability.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent:** Historically, ceasefires in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel and Hezbollah, have been fragile and often violated. However, they have sometimes lasted for the initial agreed period even amidst violations. Based on past occurrences, there might be a moderate chance (around 60%) that the ceasefire holds for at least the initial 60 days.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** With only a few days remaining, the probability of the ceasefire remaining active by January 1, 2025, would increase, given that no major escalations have occurred. I would estimate a higher probability, around 75%.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left:** If there were four times the amount of time left (approximately 44 days), the probability of a breakdown might increase, given the history of ceasefire violations and retaliations. In such a scenario, I might estimate a lower probability, around 55%, as more time allows for potential provocations and responses.\n\n**Rationale:**\nConsidering the current situation, historical context, and the short time frame remaining, the ceasefire is likely to remain technically active until January 1, 2025, unless a significant incident occurs. The involvement of international mediators and the mutual desire to avoid full-scale conflict may contribute to maintaining the truce, despite ongoing tensions.\n\n**Final Answer: Probability: 70%**\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately 11 days. The question will resolve on January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) If nothing changed, the outcome would likely be a **Yes**, as the ceasefire is currently holding, albeit tenuously, with both sides accusing each other of violations but not escalating to full-scale conflict.\n\n(c) The most important factors that will influence a successful ceasefire resolution include:\n- Continued adherence to the ceasefire terms by both Israel and Hezbollah, avoiding any significant military actions that could escalate the situation.\n- The effectiveness of the international monitoring and mediation efforts led by France and the US.\n- The willingness of both parties to negotiate and address contentions, such as Israel's demand for enforcement rights and Hezbollah's insistence on sovereignty.\n- The political and military dynamics within Israel and Hezbollah, including leadership decisions and pressure from other regional actors.\n\n(d) What I do not know that should give me pause includes:\n- The internal decision-making processes within both Israel and Hezbollah, which could escalate tensions unpredictably.\n- Any potential for third-party interventions or provocations that could disrupt the fragile ceasefire.\n- The precise conditions on the ground, as media reports may not capture all localized incidents that could lead to escalation.\n\n(e) If I were to only use historical precedent without current information, I would forecast a lower probability of the ceasefire holding. Historically, ceasefires in the region have often been temporary and prone to violations. However, they can sometimes hold for a period despite these violations.\n\n(f) If there was only a quarter of the time left (approximately 2-3 days), my forecast would likely remain similar to the current situation, assuming no major incidents occur within that short period.\n\n(g) If there was 4x the time left (approximately 44 days), my forecast might decrease slightly, as the longer duration increases the likelihood of incidents or provocations which could lead to escalation.\n\nConsidering the current situation and historical context, I would estimate the probability of a ceasefire being active on January 1, 2025, as follows:\n\nProbability: 75%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n(a) **Time Left Until Outcome:** There are 11 days remaining until January 1, 2025, when the status of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will be assessed.\n\n(b) **Outcome if Nothing Changed:** If nothing changed from the current situation, the ceasefire would likely be considered active. While there are accusations of violations from both sides, the ceasefire is generally holding, and neither party has fully withdrawn from the agreement yet.\n\n(c) **Important Factors for Successful/Unsuccessful Resolution:**\n- **Accusations and Actual Violations:** Continued accusations of violations by both sides could escalate tensions and lead to a breakdown of the ceasefire. Monitoring and reporting violations could play a crucial role in maintaining the truce.\n- **International Oversight and Intervention:** The involvement of international parties like France and the US could help stabilize the situation by mediating disputes and reinforcing the importance of the ceasefire.\n- **Political Will and Strategic Interests:** The willingness of both Israel and Hezbollah to uphold the ceasefire, despite provocations, will be critical. Both sides may evaluate their strategic gains or losses from the ceasefire.\n- **Regional Geopolitical Dynamics:** Any changes in the broader geopolitical landscape, such as actions by other regional players or shifts in alliances, could impact the ceasefire's viability.\n\n(d) **Unknowns and Sources of Uncertainty:**\n- The exact nature and frequency of violations, as reported by credible sources, which could either be underreported or exaggerated by either party.\n- The internal political dynamics within Israel and Hezbollah that might pressure leaders to either uphold or abandon the ceasefire.\n- The potential influence of unexpected regional events or third-party interventions that could alter the current trajectory.\n\n(e) **Historical Precedent Forecast:** Historically, ceasefires in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel, have had mixed success. Many ceasefires are breached within the first month, but some, like the 2006 ceasefire, have held despite ongoing violations. Based on historical precedent alone, the probability of the ceasefire holding might be around 60%.\n\n(f) **Forecast with a Quarter of the Time Left:** With only a few days left, assuming current stability and no major escalations, the probability of the ceasefire holding would increase, possibly to around 75-80%.\n\n(g) **Forecast with 4x the Time Left:** With much more time remaining, there would be more opportunities for violations to escalate into a breakdown of the ceasefire. Thus, the probability might decrease to around 50-55%, reflecting the increased uncertainty over a longer period.\n\n**Rationale:** Given the fragile but generally holding nature of the ceasefire, supported by international oversight, and the short time remaining until the resolution date, the probability of the ceasefire being active on January 1, 2025, is relatively high. However, the volatile nature of the region and the historical precedent of ceasefires breaking down prevent an overly confident forecast.\n\n**Final Answer:** \"Probability: 75%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately 11 days.\n\n(b) If nothing changed, the outcome would be a \"Yes,\" since a ceasefire agreement is currently in effect, albeit fragile, and set to last until at least January 26, 2025.\n\n(c) The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution include:\n- The adherence to the ceasefire terms by both Israel and Hezbollah, particularly regarding military withdrawals and cessation of hostilities.\n- The ability of the Lebanese Army and UN peacekeepers to maintain control over the southern Lebanon region.\n- Any significant violations or provocations that might lead to escalations, causing one or both parties to withdraw from the ceasefire.\n- The role of international mediators, especially the United States, in managing and mitigating disputes or violations.\n\n(d) What I do not know that should give me pause and lower confidence includes:\n- The extent to which each party is genuinely committed to maintaining the ceasefire.\n- Any undisclosed plans by either party to resume hostilities based on strategic advantages or political motivations.\n- The potential impact of external actors, such as Iran or other regional powers, on the actions of Hezbollah.\n\n(e) If I were to forecast using only historical precedent, the probability of a ceasefire lasting until the end of the agreed period is relatively low, given the frequent violations and resumption of hostilities in past ceasefires. Historical patterns suggest that ceasefires in this context are often fragile and short-lived.\n\n(f) If there was only a quarter of the time left (approximately 2-3 days), I would forecast a higher probability of the ceasefire remaining in effect, as short timeframes reduce the likelihood of significant changes or escalations.\n\n(g) If there was 4x the time left (approximately 44 days), my forecast would be lower, as the longer duration increases the chances of violations or renewed hostilities based on historical precedents and ongoing tensions.\n\nRationale: Given the current situation where the ceasefire is in effect but fragile, I would consider the historical tendency for ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah to be unstable. However, the short timeframe left until January 1, 2025, increases the likelihood that the current ceasefire could hold, even if tenuously, for at least that period.\n\nProbability: 65%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\nTo address the question of whether a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah will be active on January 1, 2025, let's break down the components:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** As of December 21, 2024, there are 11 days left until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed:** Currently, a ceasefire is in place, though fragile, with both sides accusing each other of violations. If the situation remains unchanged, the ceasefire would technically still be in effect, suggesting a \"Yes\" outcome.\n\n(c) **Most important factors influencing a successful/unsuccessful resolution:**\n- **Enforcement and compliance:** The ability of the Lebanese Army and UN peacekeepers to enforce the ceasefire terms and prevent violations.\n- **Political will:** The willingness of both Israel and Hezbollah to adhere to the ceasefire terms despite provocations and accusations.\n- **International mediation:** Continued active involvement by international mediators, particularly the United States, to ensure both sides comply with the ceasefire.\n- **Regional dynamics:** Any spillover from related conflicts in the region, such as the ongoing tensions with Iranian proxies, could impact the ceasefire's stability.\n\n(d) **Unknown factors that should give pause and lower confidence:**\n- **Internal political dynamics:** Changes in leadership or policy within Israel or Lebanon that could alter the commitment to the ceasefire.\n- **External provocations:** Potential actions by other regional actors (e.g., Iran or Syrian militias) that could trigger responses from either side.\n- **Public pressure:** Domestic pressures in Israel or Lebanon could push leaders to act more aggressively, risking the ceasefire.\n\n(e) **Forecast based on historical precedent:** Historically, ceasefires in the Middle East, especially involving non-state actors like Hezbollah, have been fragile and often short-lived. The likelihood of a ceasefire lasting for the entire agreed period is generally low.\n\n(f) **Forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** If there were only a few days left, I would forecast a higher probability of the ceasefire being active, given the short duration and current adherence to the ceasefire, despite its fragility.\n\n(g) **Forecast if there was 4x the time left:** If there were several months left, the probability of the ceasefire remaining active would decrease due to the historical propensity for violations and renewed hostilities over longer periods.\n\n**Rationale:** Given that the ceasefire is currently in effect and there are only 11 days left until the resolution date, the probability is relatively high that it will remain active. However, the historical context of ceasefire fragility in the region and ongoing tensions suggest some risk of collapse. Balancing these factors, I estimate the probability as moderately high.\n\n**Final Answer:** Probability: 70%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** \nThere are 11 days left until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:** \nIf nothing changed from the current situation, where a ceasefire is in place but fragile with accusations of violations, the ceasefire would likely be considered active on January 1, 2025. The ceasefire agreement is currently holding, albeit with tensions and accusations of violations.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution:** \n- **Compliance with Ceasefire Terms:** Whether both Israel and Hezbollah adhere to the terms of the ceasefire, particularly the withdrawal of forces and cessation of hostilities.\n- **Political Will:** The willingness of both sides to maintain the ceasefire despite provocations or minor violations.\n- **International Mediation and Enforcement:** The role of international mediators, particularly the United States and United Nations, in monitoring and enforcing the ceasefire.\n- **Regional Dynamics:** Broader regional conflicts, such as tensions involving Iran or other proxy groups, could influence the stability of the ceasefire.\n- **Historical Precedents:** Past ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have often been short-lived, which could impact the sustainability of the current agreement.\n\n(d) **What do you not know that should give you pause and lower confidence?** \n- **Potential for Escalation:** Any unforeseen incidents or provocations that could lead to a breakdown of the ceasefire.\n- **Internal Dynamics within Hezbollah:** Changes in leadership or strategy within Hezbollah that might affect their adherence to the ceasefire.\n- **Israeli Domestic Politics:** Shifts in Israeli political dynamics or military strategy.\n- **International Pressure:** Changes in international diplomatic pressure or support that could either reinforce or undermine the ceasefire.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent:** \nHistorically, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been fragile and often violated before the end of their agreed period. Based solely on historical precedent, one might assign a lower probability of the ceasefire remaining active. I would estimate around 40% based solely on history.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** \nWith less time remaining, assuming no major incidents occur, the probability of the ceasefire remaining active would increase, as there is less opportunity for it to break down. I would estimate a probability of around 80%.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left:** \nIf there were four times the time remaining (about 44 days), the probability would decrease, given the historical tendency for these ceasefires to be fragile. I would estimate a probability of around 50%, considering the increased likelihood of violations over a longer period.\n\n**Rationale:** \nConsidering the current situation, where the ceasefire is holding but fragile, and the short time frame remaining until January 1, 2025, the probability of the ceasefire being active seems relatively high. However, the historical context suggests caution due to previous ceasefires' instability. Balancing these factors, I would assign a probability of 70% that the ceasefire will be active on January 1, 2025.\n\n**Final Answer:** \nProbability: 70%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\nTo forecast the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah being active on January 1, 2025, I'll approach the question systematically by addressing each point:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:**\nThere are 11 days remaining until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:**\nIf the current conditions persist without significant escalation or breakdown in the ceasefire, the outcome would likely be a \"Yes\" that a ceasefire is active on January 1, 2025. The ceasefire, though fragile, is currently in effect.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution:**\n- **Continued Adherence to Ceasefire Terms:** Both Israel and Hezbollah need to continue adhering to the ceasefire terms, despite existing tensions and accusations of minor violations.\n- **International Mediation and Monitoring:** The role of international actors, particularly the United States, and UN peacekeepers will be crucial in maintaining stability and addressing any disputes that arise.\n- **Avoidance of Major Incidents:** The absence of significant provocations or escalations on either side will be critical in maintaining the ceasefire.\n- **Political Stability in Lebanon:** The political situation in Lebanon, including the absence of a president, could influence Hezbollah's actions and overall stability.\n\n(d) **What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence:**\n- **Details of Violations and Responses:** The extent and nature of ceasefire violations, and how each side responds, can rapidly change the situation.\n- **Internal Hezbollah Dynamics:** Internal decisions within Hezbollah, especially in response to Israeli actions or broader regional dynamics, are not fully transparent.\n- **Potential for External Influences:** Actions by other regional actors, including Iran, could complicate or destabilize the ceasefire.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent:**\nHistorically, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been fragile and often short-lived, with frequent violations. Based purely on precedent, the probability of the ceasefire remaining active until January 1, 2025, would be relatively low, perhaps around 40%.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:**\nWith less than three days remaining, and assuming no significant changes, my forecast would lean more confidently towards the ceasefire being active, perhaps around 80%. This is because the shorter time frame reduces the chance for major disruptions.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left:**\nIf the ceasefire needed to hold for an additional 44 days beyond January 1, 2025, my forecast would be more cautious, reflecting historical precedent and potential for violations, lowering the probability to around 50%.\n\n**Rationale:**\nCurrently, the ceasefire is holding despite tensions and accusations. Historical precedence suggests fragility, but the involvement of international mediators and the strategic interests of the parties involved might stabilize the situation temporarily. The time remaining is short, and barring significant incidents, the ceasefire is likely to hold until January 1, 2025.\n\n**Final Answer:**\nProbability: 70%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n**Rationale:**\n\n(a) **Time Left Until Outcome is Known:**\nThere are 11 days remaining until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **Current Outcome if Nothing Changed:**\nIf the current situation remains unchanged, the ceasefire would be active on January 1, 2025, since it is currently in effect despite some violations.\n\n(c) **Important Factors Influencing Resolution:**\n1. **Sustained Violations:** Continued violations by either side could break the ceasefire.\n2. **Political Will:** The intentions and statements of leaders from both sides, especially Israel's Prime Minister and Hezbollah's leadership, can influence the ceasefire's continuity.\n3. **International Mediation:** The role of the United States and other international players as mediators could stabilize or destabilize the situation.\n4. **Military Movements:** Any significant military movement or escalation could disrupt the ceasefire.\n5. **Regional Dynamics:** Broader regional tensions, including Hezbollah's relationships with Iran and other conflicts in the region, could impact the ceasefire.\n\n(d) **Unknowns That Lower Confidence:**\n1. **Unpredictable Escalations:** The potential for sudden escalations or incidents that could disrupt the ceasefire.\n2. **Internal Political Dynamics:** The effects of political changes within Lebanon and Israel, such as leadership changes or shifts in public sentiment.\n3. **International Influence:** The strength and influence of international mediators in maintaining the ceasefire may be difficult to gauge.\n4. **Accusations of Violations:** The potential for accusations of violations to escalate into significant conflict.\n\n(e) **Forecast Based on Historical Precedent:**\nHistorically, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been fragile and often short-lived. Ceasefires involving non-state actors and state forces in the Middle East have rarely lasted beyond two months. Given this precedent, a lower probability of the ceasefire holding would be expected.\n\n(f) **Forecast with a Quarter of the Time Left:**\nWith approximately 2-3 days remaining, the probability of the ceasefire holding would likely increase due to the short time frame, assuming no significant incidents occur.\n\n(g) **Forecast with 4x the Time Left:**\nWith approximately 44 days remaining, the probability of the ceasefire breaking would increase due to the likelihood of incidents or escalations over a longer time period.\n\n**Final Answer:**\nBased on the current status of the ceasefire, historical precedents, and potential influencing factors, the probability of the ceasefire being active on January 1, 2025, is estimated at:\n\n**Probability: 65%**\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) **Time Left Until Outcome is Known**: The ceasefire status will be known in approximately 11 days, as we need to assess the situation on January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if Nothing Changed**: If the current situation persists, with the ceasefire being violated by both parties, it is likely that the ceasefire would not be considered active by January 1, 2025, resulting in a resolution of **No**.\n\n(c) **Important Factors Influencing Resolution**:\n- **Level of Violations**: Continued or escalating violations by either party, especially significant military actions, could undermine the ceasefire.\n- **Diplomatic Efforts**: International diplomatic efforts from brokers like the U.S. and France could help stabilize the situation and enforce the ceasefire terms.\n- **Political Will**: The commitment of both Israel and Hezbollah to respect the ceasefire terms and maintain peace.\n- **Public and Political Pressure**: Domestic pressures within Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah could impact adherence to the ceasefire.\n- **Unforeseen Events**: Unexpected events, such as further assassinations or major provocations, could derail the ceasefire.\n\n(d) **Unknowns That Lower Confidence**:\n- **Real-time Situation**: The exact on-ground situation and the degree of control each party has over their factions.\n- **Effectiveness of Monitoring**: The ability of international observers to accurately report and influence ceasefire adherence.\n- **Internal Decision-Making**: The internal political dynamics and decision-making processes of both Israel and Hezbollah.\n\n(e) **Forecast Using Historical Precedent**: Historically, ceasefires in this region have been fragile and often violated, especially following significant escalations. Based on historical precedent alone, the probability of maintaining a ceasefire without violations for 11 more days would be relatively low, around 30%.\n\n(f) **Forecast with a Quarter of the Time Left**: With only a few days left, assuming the situation has remained relatively stable, the probability of a ceasefire being active might increase slightly due to the reduced time frame, around 40%.\n\n(g) **Forecast with 4x the Time Left**: With significantly more time (approximately 44 days), the probability of the ceasefire holding would likely decrease due to the increased likelihood of violations and potential escalations, around 25%.\n\n**Rationale**: Given the current situation with ongoing violations and threats from both sides, the historical context of ceasefires in this region, and the short time frame left, the probability of the ceasefire being active on January 1, 2025, is low. However, the involvement of international brokers and the short remaining time do provide a slight chance of maintaining the ceasefire.\n\n**Final Answer**: \"Probability: 35%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** There are 11 days left until January 1, 2025, when we will know if the ceasefire remains active.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed:** If the current situation persists with ongoing violations and retaliations, the likelihood of the ceasefire holding until January 1, 2025, is low. Both sides have already violated the ceasefire, and tensions are high.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution:** \n- **Mutual Restraint:** Both parties need to exercise restraint and avoid further escalations, despite provocations.\n- **International Pressure and Mediation:** Continued involvement and pressure from the U.S., France, and possibly other international actors could help maintain the ceasefire.\n- **Internal Dynamics:** Internal political pressures within Israel and Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah's strategic calculations, could either stabilize or destabilize the situation.\n- **Trust and Monitoring:** Effective monitoring and trust-building measures between the parties could improve adherence to the ceasefire.\n\n(d) **What do you not know that should give you pause and lower confidence?** \n- The precise internal dynamics within Hezbollah and Israel, particularly any potential changes in leadership strategy or political pressure that might alter their stance.\n- The role and influence of external actors like Iran on Hezbollah's decisions.\n- Any unreported incidents or developments that might significantly impact the current situation.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent:** Historically, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah have been fragile and often violated. Given this, one might predict a low probability of successful maintenance of the ceasefire (perhaps around 30-40%), based on past trends alone.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left:** With less time remaining, the probability of the ceasefire holding could be slightly higher due to the short timeframe, assuming no further escalations occur. I might forecast around 50%.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left:** With more time, the probability of violations or breakdown increases, given the high tensions and historical trends. I would forecast a lower probability, around 30%.\n\n**Rationale:**\n- The ceasefire is extremely fragile, with both sides having already committed violations. Historical precedents suggest that such agreements are difficult to maintain without robust enforcement mechanisms.\n- The situation remains tense, with both parties on high alert and ready to retaliate for any perceived violations.\n- International mediation efforts are crucial but may not have the leverage needed to enforce long-term compliance.\n- The short timeframe remaining might slightly increase the odds of the ceasefire holding, but the likelihood remains uncertain given the volatile context.\n\n**Final Answer:** \"Probability: 40%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\nTo answer the question regarding the likelihood of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah being active on January 1, 2025, let's break down the provided information and consider the influencing factors.\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** \nThere are 11 days left until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed:** \nAs of the latest reports, a ceasefire agreement is in place, having been brokered by the U.S. and France. Despite violations, it remains officially active. If nothing changes, therefore, the ceasefire would still be considered active.\n\n(c) **Important factors influencing the outcome:**\n- **Ceasefire Violations:** Both sides have accused each other of violations, with Israel reported to have violated the ceasefire multiple times. Hezbollah has retaliated, complicating the situation.\n- **Political Will:** The commitment of both sides, particularly Israel's stance on responding to violations and Hezbollah's readiness for prolonged conflict if necessary, is crucial.\n- **Third-Party Influence:** The role of the U.S. and France in maintaining the agreement and possibly mediating any disputes will be significant.\n- **Regional Stability:** Broader regional dynamics, including any changes in Gaza or Syrian fronts, could impact the ceasefire's stability.\n\n(d) **Unknown factors that could affect confidence:**\n- **Internal Political Dynamics:** Any changes in political leadership or policy on either side could impact the ceasefire.\n- **Unpredicted Escalations:** Sudden events, such as unforeseen military engagements or political incidents, could disrupt the ceasefire.\n- **Enforcement Mechanisms:** The lack of robust enforcement mechanisms could allow for violations without consequences.\n\n(e) **Historical precedent without current information:**\nHistorically, ceasefires in the region, particularly involving Hezbollah and Israel, have been fragile and often short-lived. This would suggest a lower probability of success, perhaps around 30-40%, given the pattern of violations and eventual breakdowns.\n\n(f) **Forecast with a quarter of the time left:**\nWith only around 2-3 days remaining, assuming the situation remains relatively stable, I would forecast a higher probability, around 70%, given that the ceasefire has withstood initial violations.\n\n(g) **Forecast with 4x the time left:**\nWith approximately 44 days remaining, the probability would decrease to around 50%, as this extended time frame increases the chance of significant violations or breakdowns in the ceasefire.\n\n**Rationale:**\nThe ceasefire agreement is currently active but fragile, with ongoing violations and tensions. The historical context suggests such agreements are often temporary and prone to breakdowns, especially when significant escalations have occurred in the past. However, with only 11 days remaining, and if current conditions remain stable, the likelihood is higher that the ceasefire will still be considered active on January 1, 2025.\n\n**Final Answer:** \"Probability: 65%\"\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known.** \nThere are 11 days remaining until January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) **What the outcome would be if nothing changed.** \nIf nothing changed from the current situation, the outcome would likely be that the ceasefire is not active. Although a ceasefire agreement was reached and is technically in place, there have been violations from both sides, including recent rocket attacks and airstrikes. The fragile nature of the current ceasefire, marked by ongoing tensions and mutual accusations of violations, suggests that it may not hold until January 1.\n\n(c) **The most important factors that will influence a successful/unsuccessful resolution.** \n- **Ceasefire Violations:** Continued or increased violations by either party could lead to the collapse of the ceasefire.\n- **Political Will:** The willingness of both Israel and Hezbollah to adhere to the ceasefire terms, possibly influenced by international pressure or internal political calculations.\n- **Third-Party Mediation:** The role of the U.S. and France as mediators and their ability to enforce compliance could be crucial.\n- **Regional Stability:** Broader regional dynamics, including relations with other actors like Iran and Syria, could impact the ceasefire's stability.\n\n(d) **What you do not know that should give you pause and lower confidence.** \n- **Internal Decision-Making:** The internal political dynamics and decision-making processes within both Israel and Hezbollah are not fully transparent, making it difficult to predict future actions.\n- **International Influence:** The extent to which international actors can or will influence the situation is uncertain.\n- **Public Opinion:** The impact of public opinion within Lebanon and Israel on their respective governments\u2019 decisions is not clear.\n\n(e) **What you would forecast if you were to only use historical precedent.** \nHistorically, ceasefires between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as similar conflicts in the region, have been fragile and often short-lived, especially following significant escalations. Using historical precedent alone, I would estimate a low probability of the ceasefire being successfully maintained on January 1, 2025, around 30%.\n\n(f) **What you would forecast if there was only a quarter of the time left.** \nIf there were only a few days left, given the current violations and tensions, I would estimate a lower probability, around 20%, of the ceasefire being active on January 1.\n\n(g) **What you would forecast if there was 4x the time left.** \nIf there were four times the remaining time (approximately 44 days), there might be more opportunity for diplomatic intervention and stabilization. However, given the current trajectory and historical patterns, I would still estimate a low probability, around 35%.\n\n**Final Answer** \nBased on the current situation, historical precedent, and the remaining time, the probability that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah will be active on January 1, 2025, is around 25%. \n\n**Probability: 25%**\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\nTo address the interview question, I'll go through each of these points to help formulate a well-considered probability forecast.\n\n(a) **Time Left Until the Outcome is Known:**\n\nThere are 11 days until January 1, 2025, when the outcome will be determined.\n\n(b) **Current Outcome if Nothing Changes:**\n\nAs of now, there is a ceasefire agreement in place, but there have been violations reported. If the situation remains as is, and no major escalations occur, the ceasefire could technically still be considered active, albeit fragile. Therefore, the outcome would lean towards \"Yes\" (the ceasefire is active) if there are no further significant developments.\n\n(c) **Most Important Factors Influencing Resolution:**\n\n1. **Intensity of Violations:** Continued or escalating violations by either party could lead to the breakdown of the ceasefire.\n2. **Political Will:** The commitment of both Israel and Hezbollah to adhere to the ceasefire terms is crucial.\n3. **International Pressure and Mediation:** The role of the U.S. and France as brokers may influence the parties to maintain the ceasefire.\n4. **Internal Dynamics within Hezbollah and Israel:** Leadership decisions and domestic pressures could impact adherence to the ceasefire.\n\n(d) **Unknowns That Should Lower Confidence:**\n\n1. **Future Military Actions:** Potential for sudden escalations or retaliations that could destabilize the ceasefire.\n2. **Internal Political Changes:** Unforeseen political developments within Israel or Hezbollah that might alter their stance on the ceasefire.\n3. **Unreported Violations or Secret Negotiations:** Lack of transparency around certain actions or talks could affect the ceasefire status.\n\n(e) **Forecast Using Historical Precedent:**\n\nHistorically, ceasefires in the region have been fragile and often short-lived. Given the high rate of violations and the volatile nature of such agreements, the likelihood of a ceasefire being maintained for a long period is typically low. Based on historical precedent alone, the probability might be around 30-40%.\n\n(f) **Forecast with Only a Quarter of the Time Left:**\n\nWith just a few days remaining, and assuming the situation remains relatively stable with no major escalations, the probability of the ceasefire remaining in effect would increase to around 60-70%, as the short time frame reduces the window for potential disruptions.\n\n(g) **Forecast with 4x the Time Left:**\n\nIf there were significantly more time before the outcome is known, the probability would decrease, perhaps to around 20-30%, due to the increased likelihood of violations and the historical pattern of ceasefire breakdowns over extended periods.\n\n**Rationale and Final Answer:**\n\nConsidering the current situation and the time left, the ceasefire has been violated but not abandoned. Both sides have expressed commitment to the agreement, albeit with tensions and accusations. International mediation efforts by the U.S. and France could help maintain the ceasefire in the short term. Given these factors, and the limited time remaining until the resolution date, the probability that the ceasefire will be active on January 1, 2025, is higher than historical precedent might suggest.\n\nProbability: 65%\nThe original forecast may have been clamped between 5% and 95%.\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 1.8469774999999986, + "minutes_taken": 1.9886853337287902, + "prediction": 0.7 + }, + { + "question": { + "question_text": "How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?", + "page_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30927", + "id_of_post": 30927, + "id_of_question": 30659, + "num_forecasters": 11, + "num_predictions": 155, + "state": "open", + "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the amount of the gross domestic box office revenue for the movie *A Complete Unknown* according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11563598/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) for the period from December 25, 2024 through December 29, 2024 (inclusive).", + "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", + "background_info": "[A Complete Unknown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Complete_Unknown) is an upcoming biographical film about Bob Dylan by James Mangold, who also directed the 2005 biographical film *Walk the Line* about musician Johnny Cash. The movie stars Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet as Bob Dylan, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger and Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez. Christmas and the days following [are a popular time for movie attendance](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/this-is-the-most-important-week-of-the-year-for-movie-theater-owners.html) in the United States.\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n> Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n> Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n> Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", + "close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00", + "actual_resolution_time": null, + "scheduled_resolution_time": "2024-12-30T22:00:00", + "date_accessed": "2024-12-17T15:05:53.552188", + "api_json": { + "id": 30927, + "title": "How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?", + "url_title": "What will be the domestic earnings of A Complete Unknown?", + "slug": "what-will-be-the-domestic-earnings-of-a-complete-unknown", + "author_id": 115975, + "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", + "coauthors": [], + "projects": { + "category": [ + { + "id": 3696, + "name": "Sports & Entertainment", + "slug": "sports-entertainment", + "description": "Sports & Entertainment", + "type": "category" + } + ], + "question_series": [ + { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + ], + "default_project": { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + }, + "created_at": "2024-12-11T02:59:42.128343Z", + "published_at": "2024-12-14T14:21:47.736273Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-17T14:27:43.411302Z", + "curation_status": "approved", + "comment_count": 0, + "status": "open", + "resolved": false, + "actual_close_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T22:00:00Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "nr_forecasters": 11, + "question": { + "id": 30659, + "title": "How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?", + "description": "[A Complete Unknown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Complete_Unknown) is an upcoming biographical film about Bob Dylan by James Mangold, who also directed the 2005 biographical film *Walk the Line* about musician Johnny Cash. The movie stars Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet as Bob Dylan, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger and Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez. Christmas and the days following [are a popular time for movie attendance](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/this-is-the-most-important-week-of-the-year-for-movie-theater-owners.html) in the United States.\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n> Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n> Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n> Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", + "created_at": "2024-12-11T02:59:42.128692Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T22:00:00Z", + "actual_resolve_time": null, + "resolution_set_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "actual_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "type": "numeric", + "options": [], + "group_variable": "", + "status": "open", + "possibilities": null, + "resolution": null, + "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, + "question_weight": 1.0, + "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the amount of the gross domestic box office revenue for the movie *A Complete Unknown* according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11563598/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) for the period from December 25, 2024 through December 29, 2024 (inclusive).", + "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. 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"explanation": "\n# SUMMARY\n*Question*: How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?\n*Final Prediction*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 50.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 87.14% chance of value below 40.0\n- 92.32% chance of value below 55.0\n- 95.00% chance of value below 70.0\n\n*Total Cost*: $1.66\n*Time Spent*: 1.6 minutes\n\n\n## Report 1 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 9.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 18.0\n\n*Forecaster 2*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 16.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 18.0\n\n*Forecaster 3*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 8.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 12.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 30.0\n\n*Forecaster 4*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 9.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 12.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 18.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 22.0\n\n*Forecaster 5*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 18.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 22.0\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent trends in domestic box office earnings during the Christmas period show strong performances for films released at this time, with notable successes in 2023. \"The Color Purple\" achieved significant earnings, with $18 million on its opening day, marking it as the biggest Christmas Day opening since 2009. Other films like \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Ferrari\" also performed well, highlighting the potential for significant earnings during the Christmas period due to increased moviegoing activity driven by holiday leisure time and family gatherings [Q1].\n\nJames Mangold, the director of *A Complete Unknown*, has a strong track record with films like *Walk the Line* and *Logan*, which have performed exceptionally well at the box office. This suggests that his upcoming film could perform well during its opening period, especially given the holiday release timing, which often boosts box office numbers [Q2]. Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, starring in the film, has shown strong box office draw with recent successes like \"Wonka,\" indicating potential positive influence on the film's earnings [Q3].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet have shown the potential to gross over $10 million in their opening 5-day period, as evidenced by \"Wonka\" grossing $39 million in its opening weekend [B3].\n- Movies with strong marketing campaigns often achieve significant box office earnings during the Christmas 5-day opening period, with a potential to earn approximately $20 million more than similar movies released at other times of the year [B4].\n- Movies opening on Christmas Day frequently achieve more than $5 million in domestic gross earnings over their first 5-day period, as seen with \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Migration\" [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- James Mangold's strong track record with successful films suggests potential for *A Complete Unknown* to perform well, especially with the holiday release timing [Q2].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent box office success with \"Wonka\" indicates a strong draw that could positively impact the film's earnings [Q3].\n- The Christmas period is associated with increased moviegoing activity, providing a favorable environment for box office success [Q1].\n\n#### Cons\n- Specific marketing strategies and promotional efforts for *A Complete Unknown* are not detailed, which could impact its visibility and box office performance [Q4].\n- The competitive landscape for films releasing in late December 2024 is not fully detailed, which could affect the film's earnings if major blockbusters are released simultaneously [Q5].\n\n\n## Report 2 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 35.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 45.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 65.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 75.0\n\n*Forecaster 2*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 35.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 45.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 65.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 75.0\n\n*Forecaster 3*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 20.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 30.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 50.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 60.0\n\n*Forecaster 4*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 18.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 24.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 32.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 50.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 60.0\n\n*Forecaster 5*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 20.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 30.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 40.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 60.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 70.0\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nThe research report explores the potential domestic box office earnings for the film \"A Complete Unknown\" during its 5-day opening period from December 25 to December 29, 2024. Directed by James Mangold, known for successful biographical films like \"Walk the Line,\" the film stars Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet as Bob Dylan. Historical data suggests Mangold's films can perform well, with \"Walk the Line\" grossing approximately $119.5 million domestically. However, specific projections for \"A Complete Unknown\" are not available, indicating a need for further analysis from industry sources [Q1, Q2].\n\nFactors influencing the film's performance include the Christmas release period, which traditionally sees high movie attendance, and the film's marketing strategy. The competition from streaming services, which have gained significant viewership, could impact box office earnings. Promotional efforts highlight the film's focus on Bob Dylan's cultural impact and Chalamet's musical performances, potentially boosting audience interest [Q3, Q4].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- James Mangold's \"Logan\" (2017) opened with approximately $88.4 million, and \"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019) with about $31 million domestically [B1].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent film \"Wonka\" projected to earn $35-$40 million in its opening weekend [B3].\n- Films about musicians like \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" and \"A Star is Born\" grossed $51 million and $42 million, respectively, in their opening weekends, suggesting $75 million in a 5-day run is rare [B4].\n\n#### Pros\n- James Mangold's track record with successful biographical films suggests potential for strong box office performance [Q1].\n- The Christmas release period is historically popular for movie attendance, which could boost earnings [Q3].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's involvement and musical performances may attract his fanbase and Bob Dylan enthusiasts [Q4].\n\n#### Cons\n- Increased competition from streaming services, which have captured a significant share of viewership, could negatively impact box office performance [Q3].\n- Lack of specific box office projections for \"A Complete Unknown\" creates uncertainty in forecasting its earnings [Q2].\n\n\n## Report 3 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 45.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 55.0\n\n*Forecaster 2*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 20.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 30.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 35.0\n\n*Forecaster 3*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 22.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 35.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 42.0\n\n*Forecaster 4*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 22.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 40.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 50.0\n\n*Forecaster 5*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 8.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 30.0\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nThe research report highlights that biographical films, such as *A Complete Unknown*, typically rely on critical acclaim and word-of-mouth for box office success, often having lower marketing budgets compared to blockbuster genres. While specific average earnings for biographical films during opening weekends are not provided, these films generally do not achieve the high opening numbers seen in action or superhero films but can perform well over time due to strong narratives and critical reception [Q1]. Recent box office trends during the Christmas period show mixed performances, with some films exceeding expectations and others struggling, indicating that while the holiday season can be lucrative, it also presents challenges due to competition and audience preferences [Q2].\n\nThe film *A Complete Unknown* is generating significant social media buzz and positive critical reception, with strong praise for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance as Bob Dylan, which could positively influence its box office performance during the opening weekend [Q3]. Chalamet's deep commitment to his role, including extensive preparation and learning to play Dylan's songs, is likely to attract both his fans and Dylan's, potentially increasing the film's box office performance [Q4]. The film has received largely positive reviews, with particular praise for Chalamet's portrayal, although some reviews note it may not offer new insights into Dylan's life [Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- James Mangold has directed at least three films that grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends, indicating a strong track record for significant box office openings [B3].\n- Historical data on films released on Christmas Day achieving more than $15 million over the five-day period is not comprehensive, but examples like \"Avatar: The Way of Water\" show that high-grossing films can significantly exceed this mark [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- Significant social media buzz and positive critical reception for *A Complete Unknown*, with strong praise for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance, could boost box office performance [Q3].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's deep commitment and extensive preparation for his role as Bob Dylan are likely to attract both his fans and Dylan's, potentially increasing the film's box office performance [Q4].\n- Bob Dylan's endorsement of the film and confidence in Chalamet's portrayal could positively influence audience interest and box office performance [Q5].\n\n#### Cons\n- Biographical films generally do not achieve high opening weekend numbers compared to blockbuster genres, relying more on critical acclaim and word-of-mouth for success [Q1].\n- The global box office has not fully rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, which could impact the performance of films released during the Christmas period [Q2].\n- Some reviews note that while the film is well-made, it may not offer new insights into Dylan's life, which could affect its appeal to certain audiences [Q5].\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n## R1: Q1: What are the recent trends in domestic box office earnings during the Christmas period in previous years?\nAnswer:\nRecent trends in domestic box office earnings during the Christmas period indicate a strong performance for films released during this time, with several notable successes in 2023. \"The Color Purple\" achieved the second-largest unadjusted opening day gross ever for a Christmas Day release, earning $18 million on its opening day, making it the biggest Christmas Day opening since 2009's \"Sherlock Holmes\" \\[[9](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/26/1221705314/the-color-purple-box-office#:~:text=The%20film%20adaptation%20of%20the,Aquaman%20and%20the%20Lost%20Kingdom.)\\]. This suggests a robust market for films with broad appeal and strong marketing strategies during the holiday season.\n\nAdditionally, other films like \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Ferrari\" also performed well, with opening day earnings of $5.71 million and $2.88 million, respectively, benefiting from their Christmas Day releases \\[[1](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]. These figures highlight the potential for significant earnings during the Christmas period, especially for films that can attract diverse audiences. The overall trend suggests that films released during this period can capitalize on increased moviegoing activity, driven by holiday leisure time and family gatherings.\n\n\n## R1: Q2: What has James Mangold's track record been in terms of box office performance for his previous films, such as *Walk the Line*?\nAnswer:\nJames Mangold has a notable track record in terms of box office performance. One of his most successful films, *Walk the Line* (2005), grossed over $186 million worldwide, with a significant portion coming from domestic earnings. Mangold's other films, such as *Logan* (2017), performed exceptionally well, grossing over $619 million globally, with a strong domestic showing. His ability to direct films that resonate with both critics and audiences suggests that his upcoming film, *A Complete Unknown*, could perform well during its opening period, especially given the holiday release timing which often boosts box office numbers. However, specific data on Mangold's box office performance was not found in the search results provided.\n\n\n## R1: Q3: What are the current popularity and box office draw of the main cast, including Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Edward Norton, and Monica Barbaro?\nAnswer:\nTimoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent performance in \"Wonka\" has been a significant box office success, with the film already generating nearly $150 million in returns worldwide. This indicates a strong box office draw for Chalamet, as the film continues to perform well internationally and is expected to have a positive domestic performance \\[[9](https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/wonka-box-office-timothee-chalamet-starrer-is-a-clean-success-with-almost-150-million-returns-already/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20despite%20being,which%20was%20an%20impressive%20start.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/wonka-box-office-timothee-chalamet-starrer-is-a-clean-success-with-almost-150-million-returns-already/#:~:text=Among%20the%20selected%20successful%20films%2C,and%20others%20in%20key%20roles.)\\]. \n\nEdward Norton, while not currently highlighted in recent box office hits, has a history of being involved in successful films, though specific recent data on his box office draw is not available in the provided sources. Monica Barbaro's current box office draw is not detailed in the search results, suggesting that her impact might be less significant compared to Chalamet's current popularity. Overall, Chalamet's recent success with \"Wonka\" is likely to be the most influential factor in the film's potential earnings during its opening period.\n\n\n## R1: Q4: What marketing strategies and promotional efforts are being employed for *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release?\nAnswer:\nI couldn't find any specific information about the marketing strategies and promotional efforts for *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release. The search results did not provide any relevant details about this particular film. It might be beneficial to check official movie websites, social media channels, or entertainment news outlets for the latest updates on promotional activities related to the film.\n\n\n## R1: Q5: What are the competing films releasing around the same time as *A Complete Unknown*, and how might they impact its box office performance?\nAnswer:\nTo assess the potential impact on the box office performance of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening period from December 25 to December 29, 2024, it's important to consider the competition from other films releasing around the same time. However, the search results provided do not include specific information about films releasing in December 2024. The results mainly discuss films released earlier in 2024, such as *Saturday Night* (October 2024) \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_(2024_film)#:~:text=Set%20in%201975%2C%20its%20plot,of%20Saturday%20Night%20Live%20.)\\], *The Beekeeper* (January 2024) \\[[3](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15314262/#:~:text=Cast%20%26amp%3B%20crew%20User%20reviews,%2D%20both%20action%20and%20acting.)\\], and *The Taste of Things* (2023) \\[[4](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt19760052/#:~:text=They%20have%20two%20assistants%2C%20who,every%20step%20of%20the%20way.)\\].\n\nTo accurately evaluate the competitive landscape, further research is needed to identify films scheduled for release in late December 2024. This would typically include major holiday releases, which often feature blockbuster films or family-oriented movies that could significantly impact the box office performance of *A Complete Unknown*. Additionally, understanding the genre and target audience of these competing films would provide more insight into how they might affect the earnings of *A Complete Unknown*.\n\n\n\n## R1: B1: How often have movies directed by James Mangold released during the Christmas period grossed over $10 million in their opening 5-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the box office performance of movies directed by James Mangold, particularly those released during the Christmas period. Therefore, I cannot directly answer the question based on the given data. However, I can provide some general guidance on how to find this information:\n\n1. **Research James Mangold's Filmography**: Look for films directed by James Mangold and identify which ones were released during the Christmas period. This can be done by checking databases like IMDb or Box Office Mojo.\n\n2. **Box Office Performance**: Once you have identified the films, check their box office performance during the opening 5-day period. Websites like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers can provide detailed box office data.\n\n3. **Historical Context**: Consider the historical box office trends for films released during the Christmas period, as this can provide context for how Mangold's films might perform.\n\nIf you need further assistance, I recommend using these steps to gather the necessary data from reliable sources.\n\n\n## R1: B2: How often have biographical films about musicians grossed over $5 million domestically in their opening 5-day period during the Christmas season?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic gross earnings of biographical films about musicians during the Christmas season. However, based on general industry knowledge, biographical films about musicians can vary significantly in their box office performance. For instance, films like \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" and \"Rocketman\" have performed well, but their success is not necessarily tied to the Christmas season. \n\nTo provide a more accurate answer, historical data on similar films released during the Christmas period would be needed. Unfortunately, the search results do not include such data. For a more precise forecast, it would be beneficial to look at box office databases like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers for historical earnings of similar films released during the Christmas season.\n\n\n## R1: B3: How often have movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet grossed over $10 million in their opening 5-day period?\nAnswer:\nTimoth\u00e9e Chalamet's movies have had varied success in terms of opening 5-day domestic gross earnings. Notably, his film \"Wonka\" debuted with a strong performance, grossing $39 million in its opening weekend \\[[4](https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/box-office-timothee-chalamet-wonka-wins-weekend-1235842643/#:~:text=It%20brought%20in%20%2431%2C198%20per,set%20to%20begin%20in%20January.)\\]. This indicates that movies starring Chalamet can indeed surpass the $10 million mark in their opening 5-day period. However, specific data on how many of his films have consistently achieved this threshold is not detailed in the provided sources. For a more comprehensive analysis, one would need to examine the box office performance of each of his films individually. Nonetheless, the success of \"Wonka\" suggests a positive trend for Chalamet's box office draw.\n\n\n## R1: B4: How often have movies with a strong marketing campaign achieved significant box office earnings over the Christmas 5-day opening period?\nAnswer:\nMovies with strong marketing campaigns often achieve significant box office earnings during the Christmas 5-day opening period. The first week of a movie's release is crucial, as it sets the tone for its overall performance. For every dollar made during the first four days of release, a movie is likely to make $2.7 in its entire run, highlighting the importance of a strong opening weekend and marketing blitz \\[[11](https://oscarpredictor.github.io/boxoffice.html#:~:text=The%20first%20week%20is%20extremely,how%20good%20the%20movie%20is.)\\]. Additionally, movies released in December can earn approximately $20 million more than similar movies released at other times of the year, due to the increased holiday demand and audience availability \\[[7](https://oscarpredictor.github.io/boxoffice.html#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20a%20movie%20releasing,their%20PG%2D13%20or%20R%2Drated%20counterparts.)\\]. \n\nThe Christmas period, particularly between Christmas and New Year's Day, sees high audience turnout, which can significantly boost box office earnings \\[[2](https://hsxsanity.blogspot.com/2012/12/what-can-i-expect-when-christmas-falls.html#:~:text=One%20reason%20for%20this%20is,an%20overview%20of%20Christmas%20legs.)\\]. This period is often associated with increased demand for family-friendly and general audience movies, which tend to perform better at the box office \\[[7](https://oscarpredictor.github.io/boxoffice.html#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20a%20movie%20releasing,their%20PG%2D13%20or%20R%2Drated%20counterparts.)\\]. Therefore, a well-marketed movie released during this time is likely to capitalize on these favorable conditions and achieve substantial earnings.\n\n\n## R1: B5: How often do movies that open on Christmas Day achieve more than $5 million in domestic gross earnings over their first 5-day period?\nAnswer:\nBased on the data from recent Christmas Day releases, it appears that movies opening on Christmas Day frequently achieve more than $5 million in domestic gross earnings over their first 5-day period. For instance, \"The Boys in the Boat\" opened on Christmas Day and earned $5.71 million on its opening day alone, which includes preview grosses \\[[1](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]\\[[2](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]. Similarly, \"Migration\" earned $5.36 million on Christmas Monday and accumulated $17.81 million over the four-day frame \\[[3](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=The%20opening%20day%20audience%20for,Christmas%20Monday%20with%20%245.36%20million.)\\]\\[[9](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Critical%20reviews%20for%20the%20George,four%2Dday%20start%20of%20%2417.81%20million.)\\]. These examples suggest that achieving over $5 million in the first 5-day period is a common occurrence for films released on Christmas Day, especially when considering the boost from holiday audiences.\n\n\n\n## R2: Q1: What are the historical box office earnings for films directed by James Mangold, particularly biographical films like Walk the Line?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical box office earnings for films directed by James Mangold, particularly his biographical films like \"Walk the Line.\" However, I can provide some general information based on known data up to October 2023.\n\nJames Mangold is known for directing several successful films, including biographical ones. \"Walk the Line\" (2005), a biographical film about Johnny Cash, was a commercial success, grossing approximately $119.5 million domestically. Another notable film by Mangold is \"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019), which, while not strictly a biographical film, is based on real events and earned around $117.6 million domestically. These figures suggest that Mangold's biographical films have the potential to perform well at the box office, particularly if they resonate with audiences and receive positive critical reception.\n\nFor more precise and updated figures, I recommend checking reliable box office tracking websites like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers.\n\n\n## R2: Q2: What are the projected domestic box office earnings for A Complete Unknown during its opening weekend, according to industry analysts?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific information about the projected domestic box office earnings for \"A Complete Unknown\" during its opening weekend. The results primarily focus on other films and their box office performances, such as \"The Boys in the Boat,\" \"Ferrari,\" and \"Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom\" \\[[1](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]\\[[2](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]\\[[3](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Aquaman%20and%20the%20Lost%20Kingdom,film%20in%20China%20during%202023%29.)\\]. To obtain accurate projections for \"A Complete Unknown,\" it would be necessary to consult industry analysts or box office forecasting sources that specifically address this film.\n\n\n## R2: Q3: What factors could influence movie attendance during the Christmas period, specifically for films released on December 25th?\nAnswer:\nSeveral factors can influence movie attendance during the Christmas period, particularly for films released on December 25th. Historically, Christmas is a popular time for movie releases due to the holiday season, which often sees families and individuals seeking entertainment options. The success of a film during this period can be significantly impacted by its marketing strategy and the extent of its theatrical release. For instance, a strong marketing campaign and a wide theatrical release can drive audiences to theaters, as seen with Amazon's strategy for \"Red One,\" which included a theatrical release to boost awareness and viewership \\[[5](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/red-one-amazon-biggest-streaming-debut-1236088166/#:~:text=By%20comparison%2C%20Netflix%20and%20Disney%2B,One%20was%20released%20in%20theaters.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/17/business/media/streaming-movies-theaters.html#:~:text=But%20the%20industry%20has%20now,for%20all%20of%20The%20Times.)\\].\n\nAdditionally, the competition from other entertainment options, such as streaming services, can affect box office performance. Streaming platforms have been gaining a larger share of viewership, with streaming viewership increasing by 7.6% in November 2024, reaching a record share of 41.6% of TV viewership \\[[11](https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/tv-viewing-in-november-interval-reaches-highest-level-since-february-streaming-nabs-largest-share-of-tv-ever-in-the-gauge/#:~:text=Coverage%20of%20the%20presidential%20election,TV%20with%2041.6%25%20%28%2B1.1%20pt.%29.)\\]. This trend suggests that films released in theaters during the Christmas period may face stiff competition from streaming services, potentially impacting their domestic gross earnings.\n\n\n## R2: Q4: What recent statements have been made by the film's cast or director regarding its promotion and public expectations?\nAnswer:\nRecent statements regarding the promotion and public expectations for the film \"A Complete Unknown\" have been made by the film's director, James Mangold, and its cast. In a behind-the-scenes featurette, Mangold emphasized the film's focus on Bob Dylan's genius and the transformative power of his music, highlighting Dylan's pivotal moment when he embraced rock and roll, which was a significant cultural shift. This narrative is expected to resonate with audiences familiar with Dylan's impact on music history. Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, who plays Dylan, is noted for performing the music in the film, including singing, guitar, and harmonica, which could attract fans of both Dylan and Chalamet \\[[8](https://geektyrant.com/news/behind-the-scenes-featurette-for-james-mangolds-bob-dylan-biopic-a-complete-unknown#:~:text=Searchlight%20Pictures%20has%20released%20an,with%20singing%2C%20guitar%2C%20and%20harmonica.)\\]. \n\nThese promotional efforts, focusing on the film's historical and musical significance, as well as Chalamet's involvement, are likely to influence public expectations and potentially boost the film's box office performance during its opening period.\n\n\n## R2: Q5: What are the average domestic opening weekend earnings for films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet in recent years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific information on the average domestic opening weekend earnings for films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet in recent years. However, they do mention some of his recent projects, such as \"A Complete Unknown,\" a Bob Dylan biopic, which is noted for its quality but does not provide box office figures \\[[3](https://clutchpoints.com/a-complete-unknown-timothee-chalamet-bob-dylan-2024-movie-review#:~:text=Directed%20by%20James%20Mangold%20%2C,best%20way%20of%20telling%20it.)\\]\\[[10](https://clutchpoints.com/a-complete-unknown-timothee-chalamet-bob-dylan-2024-movie-review#:~:text=A%20good%20music%20biopic%20is,Rhapsody%20got%20any%20Oscars%20attention.)\\]. To accurately determine the average domestic opening weekend earnings for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's films, additional data from box office tracking sources like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers would be required. These platforms typically provide detailed financial performance data for films, including opening weekend earnings.\n\n\n\n## R2: B1: What have been the domestic box office earnings during the opening weekend for films directed by James Mangold over the last 10 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic box office earnings during the opening weekend for films directed by James Mangold over the last 10 years. To address the question, I will provide information based on known data up to October 2023:\n\n1. **\"Logan\" (2017)**: Directed by James Mangold, \"Logan\" opened to a domestic box office of approximately $88.4 million during its opening weekend [source: Box Office Mojo].\n2. **\"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019)**: This film, also directed by Mangold, earned about $31 million in its opening weekend in the domestic market [source: Box Office Mojo].\n3. **\"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny\" (2023)**: Although specific opening weekend figures are not available in the search results, it is known that this film was directed by Mangold and had a significant box office presence [source: Box Office Mojo].\n\nThese figures provide a historical context for the opening weekend performance of James Mangold's films, which could be useful in forecasting the potential earnings for \"A Complete Unknown\" during its opening period.\n\n\n## R2: B2: How often have biographical films released during the Christmas period grossed over $50 million domestically in their opening weekend in the past 10 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic gross earnings of biographical films released during the Christmas period over the past 10 years. Therefore, I cannot directly answer the question based on the given data. However, I can suggest a general approach to finding this information:\n\n1. **Box Office Databases**: Check databases like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers for historical box office data. These platforms often have detailed records of film earnings, including opening weekend grosses.\n\n2. **Industry Reports**: Look for industry reports or articles from reputable sources like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter, which may discuss trends in biographical film releases and their box office performance during the Christmas period.\n\n3. **Historical Analysis**: Analyze the performance of notable biographical films released around Christmas in the past decade, such as \"The Wolf of Wall Street\" (2013) or \"Vice\" (2018), to see if they grossed over $50 million in their opening weekends.\n\nBy following these steps, you can gather the necessary data to determine how often biographical films have achieved the specified box office milestone during the Christmas period.\n\n\n## R2: B3: What are the average domestic opening weekend earnings for films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet over the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nBased on the available information, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent film \"Wonka\" had a strong start at the box office, earning approximately $14.4 million from Thursday previews and Friday's full day of showings. It is projected to earn between $35-$40 million domestically by the end of its opening weekend \\[[12](https://www.tmz.com/2023/12/16/timothee-chalamet-wonka-strong-box-office-start-johnny-depp/#:~:text=The%20first%2Dday%20numbers%20are%20in,2000s%2C%20the%20most%20recent%20iteration.)\\]\\[[13](https://www.tmz.com/2023/12/16/timothee-chalamet-wonka-strong-box-office-start-johnny-depp/#:~:text=Between%20Thursday%20previews%20and%20Friday%27s,in%20its%20opening%20weekend%20domestically.)\\]. However, there is no specific data provided in the search results regarding the average domestic opening weekend earnings for all films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet over the last five years. \n\nTo provide a more comprehensive answer, additional data on his other films' opening weekend earnings would be necessary. However, the performance of \"Wonka\" can serve as a recent benchmark for his box office draw.\n\n\n## R2: B4: Over the past 10 years, how often have films about musicians grossed more than $75 million domestically during their opening 5-day run?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic gross earnings of films about musicians during their opening 5-day run. However, based on general industry knowledge, films about musicians that have achieved significant box office success in recent years include \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" (2018) and \"A Star is Born\" (2018). \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" grossed approximately $51 million in its opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada, and \"A Star is Born\" grossed about $42 million in its opening weekend. These figures suggest that while films about musicians can perform well, surpassing $75 million in a 5-day opening run is relatively rare and typically requires exceptional circumstances, such as a highly popular subject or strong critical acclaim.\n\nFor a more precise analysis, it would be beneficial to consult box office databases like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers, which provide detailed financial performance data for films. This would allow for a more accurate assessment of how often films about musicians have exceeded $75 million in their opening 5-day run over the past decade.\n\n\n## R2: B5: How often have films released on December 25th exceeded their projected domestic box office earnings in the past 10 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often films released on December 25th have exceeded their projected domestic box office earnings in the past 10 years. However, there is a mention of films like \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Ferrari\" performing better than expected on their opening day, which was Christmas Day \\[[4](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]\\[[6](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]. This suggests that opening on Christmas can positively impact a film's initial box office performance, potentially leading to earnings that exceed projections. \n\nFor a more comprehensive analysis, it would be beneficial to look at historical box office data from sources like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers, focusing on films released on December 25th over the past decade. This would provide a clearer picture of the frequency with which these films have surpassed their projections.\n\n\n\n## R3: Q1: What is the historical average domestic gross earnings for biographical films during their opening weekends in the U.S.?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical average domestic gross earnings for biographical films during their opening weekends in the U.S. However, I can provide some general context based on industry trends and typical performance metrics for biographical films.\n\nBiographical films, often categorized alongside dramas, tend to rely heavily on critical acclaim and word-of-mouth for their box office success. They typically have lower marketing budgets compared to blockbuster genres, which can impact their opening weekend earnings \\[[8](https://stephenfollows.com/how-are-movie-advertising-budgets-spent/#:~:text=The%20inverse%20of%20this%20is,powerful%20way%20to%20scare%20people.)\\]. While specific average earnings for biographical films are not provided in the search results, it is known that these films generally do not achieve the high opening weekend numbers seen in action or superhero films, but they can perform well over time due to strong narratives and critical reception.\n\nFor a more precise figure, it would be beneficial to consult box office databases such as Box Office Mojo or The Numbers, which track detailed financial performance of films by genre.\n\n\n## R3: Q2: What have been the recent box office trends during the Christmas period in previous years?\nAnswer:\nRecent box office trends during the Christmas period have shown a mixed performance, with some films performing better than expected while others have struggled. For instance, in 2023, \"Aquaman 2\" had a relatively weak debut with $28 million over the Christmas weekend, despite being a major release \\[[9](https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/movies/2023/12/24/aquaman-2-christmas-weekend-box-office/72024936007/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot#:~:text=%22Aquaman%202%22%20was%20the%20final,spots%20in%20the%20top%20five.)\\]. In contrast, \"The Boys in the Boat\" exceeded expectations with a $5.71 million opening on Christmas Monday, benefiting from its Christmas Day release \\[[13](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]. This suggests that while some films can capitalize on the holiday period, others may not meet expectations, possibly due to competition or audience preferences.\n\nAdditionally, the global box office has been recovering but remains below pre-pandemic levels. The North American market was projected to grow by 12% in 2023, reaching $8.6 billion, yet still 25% below the pre-pandemic average \\[[3](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/global-box-office-forecast-2023-2022-pandemic-1235283441/#:~:text=The%20North%20American%20market%20is,percent%20behind%20the%20pre%2Dpandemic%20average.)\\]. This indicates a gradual recovery, but the market has not fully rebounded to its previous highs, which could impact the performance of films released during the Christmas period.\n\n\n## R3: Q3: What are the current viewership trends and social media buzz around the film *A Complete Unknown*?\nAnswer:\nThe film *A Complete Unknown* is generating significant social media buzz and positive critical reception ahead of its release. Notably, a tweet from Searchlight Pictures highlights a five-star review from The Guardian, indicating strong critical acclaim \\[[5](https://x.com/searchlightpics/status/1868341480932171937#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2Fen%2Fprivacy%20Conversation%20searchlightpictures.com%2Fa%2Dcomplete%2Dunk%205%3A04%20PM,to%20the%20and%20%2C%20including)\\]. Additionally, there is considerable excitement around Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance, with discussions on social media suggesting he could receive his second Oscar nomination for this role \\[[12](https://twitter.com/GraceRandolph/status/1864117923129790847#:~:text=%23ACompleteUnknown%20is%20very%20impressive%20If,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This level of buzz and critical praise could positively influence the film's box office performance during its opening weekend. Furthermore, Chalamet's recent public appearances, such as a Q&A session at the Museum of Modern Art, are also contributing to the film's visibility and anticipation \\[[15](https://twitter.com/timotheeupdates/status/1868154935550116236#:~:text=Timoth%C3%A9e%20Chalamet%20photographed%20by%20a,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\].\n\n\n## R3: Q4: What have the lead actors, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet and Edward Norton, said about their roles in the film, and how might this affect audience interest?\nAnswer:\nTimoth\u00e9e Chalamet has expressed a deep commitment to his role as Bob Dylan in \"A Complete Unknown,\" which could significantly boost audience interest. Chalamet has been involved with the project since 2018 and has undertaken extensive preparation, including guitar lessons, working with a dialect coach, and retracing Dylan's steps through key locations like Minnesota, Chicago, and New York \\[[5](https://www.awardsdaily.com/2024/11/timothee-chalamet-talks-becoming-bob-dylan-in-lengthy-interview-with-zane-lowe/#:~:text=Never%20gonna%20be%20another.%20Not,This%20is%20a%20wonderful%20interview.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.awardsdaily.com/2024/11/timothee-chalamet-talks-becoming-bob-dylan-in-lengthy-interview-with-zane-lowe/#:~:text=Not%20like%20that.%20%E2%80%9CTimoth%C3%A9e%20Chalamet,This%20is%20a%20wonderful%20interview.)\\]. His dedication is further highlighted by his learning to play 30 Bob Dylan songs and working with a harmonica coach for five years \\[[9](https://www.teenvogue.com/story/timothee-chalamet-channels-bob-dyla-new-york-premiere?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhtwitter&utm_content=null#:~:text=In%20a%20recent%20interview%20with,started%20in%20Hibbing%2C%20in%20Duluth.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/timothee-chalamet-gain-weight-bob-dylan-a-complete-unknown-1236058855/#:~:text=So%20for%20me%2C%20it%20was,the%20lead%2Dup%20to%20the%20film.)\\]. This level of immersion and authenticity in portraying Dylan is likely to attract both fans of Chalamet and Dylan, potentially increasing the film's box office performance.\n\nEdward Norton's comments on his role have not been found in the search results, but Chalamet's transformation and dedication to the role are likely to be a significant draw for audiences, especially those interested in biographical films and music history.\n\n\n## R3: Q5: What are the reviews and critical reception of *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release?\nAnswer:\nThe critical reception of *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release has been largely positive, with particular praise for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance as Bob Dylan. According to a review from Deadline, Chalamet delivers an \"astonishing and authentic\" portrayal, performing all the songs himself, which adds a layer of authenticity to the film \\[[1](https://deadline.com/2024/12/a-complete-unknown-review-timothee-chalamet-astonishes-young-bob-dylan-james-mangolds-thrilling-musical-drama-1236199254/#:~:text=Music%2C%20at%20least%20in%20this,me%20to%20be%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20says.)\\]. The film, directed by James Mangold, is noted for its thrilling recreation of a pivotal moment in music history, specifically Dylan's controversial electric performance at the 1965 Newport Folk Festival \\[[1](https://deadline.com/2024/12/a-complete-unknown-review-timothee-chalamet-astonishes-young-bob-dylan-james-mangolds-thrilling-musical-drama-1236199254/#:~:text=Music%2C%20at%20least%20in%20this,me%20to%20be%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20says.)\\]\\[[4](https://deadline.com/2024/12/a-complete-unknown-review-timothee-chalamet-astonishes-young-bob-dylan-james-mangolds-thrilling-musical-drama-1236199254/#:~:text=Here%20was%20the%20Woodstock%2Dstyle%20traditional,what%20fans%20want%20from%20him.)\\]. \n\nHowever, some reviews highlight that while the film is well-made, it may not offer new insights into Dylan's life. Empire Online describes it as a \"strikingly well-made musical drama\" with \"pitch-perfect performances,\" but notes that it might not provide a revelatory portrait of Dylan \\[[5](https://www.empireonline.com/movies/reviews/a-complete-unknown/#:~:text=But%20as%20conventional%20as%20it,why%20you%20should%20trust%20us)\\]\\[[14](https://www.empireonline.com/movies/reviews/a-complete-unknown/#:~:text=Anyone%20looking%20for%20a%20revelatory,why%20you%20should%20trust%20us)\\]. Additionally, Bob Dylan himself has endorsed the film, expressing confidence in Chalamet's portrayal, which could positively influence audience interest and box office performance \\[[11](https://www.loudersound.com/news/love-in-between-bob-dylan-and-timothee-chalamet-a-complete-unknown#:~:text=In%20what%20will%20be%20undoubtedly,be%20completely%20believable%20as%20me.)\\].\n\n\n\n## R3: B1: How often have biographical films about famous musicians released during Christmas week earned significant box office revenue in their opening weekends over the past 20 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about biographical films about famous musicians released during Christmas week over the past 20 years. However, based on general industry trends, biographical films about musicians can perform well if they resonate with audiences and have strong marketing campaigns. For example, films like \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" and \"Rocketman,\" though not released during Christmas, have shown that there is a significant audience for well-made biographical films about musicians. \n\nTo provide a more accurate forecast, it would be beneficial to look at historical box office data for similar films released during the holiday season, as well as consider factors such as the popularity of the musician being portrayed, the film's marketing strategy, and competition from other holiday releases. Unfortunately, the search results do not provide this specific data.\n\n\n## R3: B2: What is the average domestic gross earnings for movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet during their opening weekends?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the average domestic gross earnings for movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet during their opening weekends. To accurately answer the question, additional research outside of the provided results would be necessary. However, based on general industry knowledge, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet has starred in several high-profile films, such as \"Dune\" and \"Little Women,\" which have had significant box office performances. For precise figures, consulting a comprehensive box office database like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers would be recommended.\n\n\n## R3: B3: How often have films directed by James Mangold grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends?\nAnswer:\nTo determine how often films directed by James Mangold have grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends, we can look at his filmography and their box office performances. James Mangold is known for directing several successful films. Notably, \"Logan\" (2017) opened with $88.4 million, \"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019) opened with $31 million, and \"The Wolverine\" (2013) opened with $53.1 million. These films all surpassed the $20 million mark during their opening weekends. Additionally, \"3:10 to Yuma\" (2007) opened with $14 million, which did not meet the $20 million threshold. \n\nBased on this information, at least three of Mangold's films have grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends. This suggests a strong track record for Mangold in achieving significant box office openings, particularly with films that have strong commercial appeal.\n\n\n## R3: B4: Over the last decade, how often have movies with strong critical acclaim and social media buzz met or exceeded box office expectations during their opening weekend?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not directly address the question of how often movies with strong critical acclaim and social media buzz have met or exceeded box office expectations during their opening weekend over the last decade. However, I can provide some general insights based on industry trends and examples.\n\nHistorically, movies that receive strong critical acclaim and generate significant social media buzz often perform well at the box office, especially during their opening weekends. For instance, films like \"La La Land\" (2016) and \"Green Book\" (2018) received critical acclaim and had strong word-of-mouth, contributing to their box office success \\[[8](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3783958/#:~:text=See%20production%2C%20box%20office%20%26amp%3B,dream%20and%20fulfill%20your%20pursuit.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6966692/#:~:text=Videos%2033%20Best%20Picture%20Winners,appealing%20and%20it%20looked%20appetising.)\\]. However, there are exceptions, such as \"Babylon\" (2022), which despite having a strong cast and critical interest, did not meet box office expectations \\[[12](https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/12/babylon-movie-review-damien-chazelle/672560/#:~:text=Yes%2C%20he%20seems%20to%20be,%2C%20where%20he%20covers%20culture.)\\]\\[[13](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20221216-babylon-review-a-cinematic-marvel#:~:text=With%20hundreds%20of%20extras%20in,calmer%2C%20but%20no%20less%20enthralling.)\\].\n\nIn general, while critical acclaim and social media buzz can significantly boost a film's opening weekend performance, other factors such as competition, marketing strategies, and audience preferences also play crucial roles. Therefore, while many acclaimed films do meet or exceed expectations, it is not guaranteed, and each film's performance can vary based on these additional factors.\n\n\n## R3: B5: How often do films released on Christmas Day in the United States achieve more than $15 million in domestic gross earnings over the five-day period including Christmas?\nAnswer:\nBased on the available data, it is challenging to find specific statistics on how often films released on Christmas Day in the United States achieve more than $15 million in domestic gross earnings over the five-day period including Christmas. However, some insights can be drawn from recent box office performances:\n\n- **\"The Boys in the Boat\"** opened on Christmas Day and earned $5.71 million on its opening day, which suggests a strong start but does not provide a full five-day total \\[[6](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]\\[[8](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\].\n- **\"Avatar: The Way of Water\"** had a strong opening weekend, with expectations of $150 million to $175 million in North American ticket sales through Sunday, indicating that high-grossing films can significantly exceed the $15 million mark during this period \\[[4](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2022-12-16/avatar-the-way-of-water-grosses-a-solid-17-million-in-thursday-showings#:~:text=The%20movie%2C%20which%20cost%20at,%E2%80%9CAvatar%E2%80%9D%20to%20become%20a%20franchise.)\\].\n\nWhile these examples show that some films can achieve substantial earnings, they do not provide a comprehensive statistical overview. Historical data from box office reports would be needed to determine the frequency of films surpassing $15 million during this specific timeframe.\n\n\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nBefore providing a forecast, let's consider the various factors influencing the box office performance of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening 5-day period from December 25 to December 29, 2024.\n\n### (a) Time left until the outcome:\n- There are 8 days left until the film opens, and the box office earnings for this period will be reported shortly after December 29, 2024.\n\n### (b) The outcome if nothing changed:\n- If nothing changes in the current landscape, we might expect a moderate performance based on the typical earnings of biographical films, the popularity of the lead actor Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, and the historical trend of films released during the Christmas period.\n\n### (c) The outcome if the current trend continued:\n- If current trends continue, with strong holiday season earnings and the draw of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, *A Complete Unknown* could perform well, potentially surpassing $10 million in its 5-day opening period.\n\n### (d) The expectations of experts and markets:\n- Given James Mangold's track record and Chalamet's recent box office successes, experts might anticipate a strong performance, especially considering the holiday timing and increased moviegoing activity.\n\n### (e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:\n- An unexpected scenario could involve negative reviews or poor word-of-mouth, leading to lower-than-expected attendance. Additionally, unexpected competition from a surprise blockbuster release could divert audiences away from *A Complete Unknown*.\n\n### (f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:\n- An unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome could involve overwhelmingly positive reviews and strong word-of-mouth, boosting attendance. Additionally, a standout marketing campaign or an unexpected increase in interest in Bob Dylan could drive higher box office numbers.\n\n### Final Forecast:\nTaking into account the various factors and uncertainties, here is the forecast for the domestic gross earnings of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening 5-day period:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $5 million\nPercentile 20: $7 million\nPercentile 40: $9 million\nPercentile 60: $12 million\nPercentile 80: $15 million\nPercentile 90: $18 million\n```\n\nThis forecast reflects a balance between the potential for strong performance due to the film's release timing, cast, and director, and the uncertainties related to competition and audience reception.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\nTo address the interview question on forecasting the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day Christmas opening period, let's consider the following components:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known**: The film will open on December 25, 2024, and the 5-day period ends on December 29, 2024. Since today is December 17, 2024, we have about 12 days until the initial box office performance is known.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed**: If no promotional activities or significant events occurred, the outcome might be influenced by the existing popularity of the cast and director, as well as the intrinsic interest in a Bob Dylan biopic. Given Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's strong box office draw and James Mangold's successful track record, the film could potentially perform moderately well.\n\n(c) **Outcome if the current trend continued**: Considering the current trend of successful Christmas openings and the historical appeal of biographical films, *A Complete Unknown* might perform in line with or slightly above average relative to similar releases. This would suggest earnings potentially exceeding $10 million over the 5-day period.\n\n(d) **Expectations of experts and markets**: Experts might anticipate a solid performance given the film's subject matter, directorial pedigree, and lead actor's popularity. The markets might expect earnings to align with successful Christmas releases, potentially targeting the $10-$20 million range.\n\n(e) **Unexpected low outcome scenario**: An unexpected scenario resulting in a low outcome could involve negative critical reviews or poor word-of-mouth, leading to decreased audience interest. Additionally, significant competition from other high-profile releases could overshadow the film.\n\n(f) **Unexpected high outcome scenario**: A high outcome could result from exceptional critical acclaim, strong marketing, and buzz generated from early screenings. Additionally, if the film captures the zeitgeist or receives awards buzz, it could significantly boost its earnings.\n\n**Final Answer:**\n\nPercentile 10: $5 million \nPercentile 20: $7 million \nPercentile 40: $10 million \nPercentile 60: $13 million \nPercentile 80: $16 million \nPercentile 90: $18 million \n\nThis forecast considers various factors, including historical trends, the cast and director's track records, and potential market dynamics during the Christmas release period.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n### Forecasting Process:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** \nThe film *A Complete Unknown* will release on December 25, 2024. The 5-day box office earnings will be known by December 30, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:** \nIf nothing changed, the film's earnings would be unknown. Given the current lack of specific data, a neutral estimate based on historical data would be around $10 million.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:** \nIf the current trend of strong holiday openings for films continues, and considering the popularity of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, the film could perform well, potentially earning between $10 to $30 million in its opening 5-day period.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:** \nExperts might anticipate a successful opening due to the film's release timing, director's track record, and lead actor's popularity. A conservative expert estimate might place the 5-day earnings between $15 to $25 million.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:** \nAn unexpected scenario could involve negative reviews or poor audience reception, leading to a lower turnout, resulting in earnings below $5 million.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:** \nA high outcome could occur if the film receives exceptional reviews, leading to strong word-of-mouth promotion and higher attendance, resulting in earnings above $30 million.\n\n### Final Forecast:\n\nBased on the provided data, historical trends, and potential variables, here's the forecast for *A Complete Unknown*'s 5-day domestic earnings:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $5 million\nPercentile 20: $8 million\nPercentile 40: $12 million\nPercentile 60: $18 million\nPercentile 80: $25 million\nPercentile 90: $30 million\n``` \n\nThis range accounts for various scenarios, including both unexpected challenges and opportunities that could impact the film's performance.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\nTo forecast the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day opening period from December 25 to December 29, 2024, let's go through the outlined points:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known**: There are about 12 days until the movie's release, and the outcome will be known shortly after December 29, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed**: If nothing changes, we can consider the general trend for movies released during the Christmas period. Historically, many films achieve significant earnings due to increased movie-going activity during the holidays.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued**: Given the success of similar films, such as those directed by James Mangold and starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, along with the strong performance of films released during Christmas, it is likely that *A Complete Unknown* could earn a substantial amount, potentially exceeding $10 million in its opening 5-day period.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets**: Industry experts might expect *A Complete Unknown* to perform well due to the holiday release, the popularity of biographical films, and the strong cast and director. However, without specific marketing details, this is a generalized expectation.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome**: An unexpected scenario that could lead to a low outcome might include a significant competing film release that draws away the target audience or unfavorable reviews that dampen public interest.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome**: A scenario leading to a high outcome could be an exceptionally strong marketing campaign that resonates with audiences, coupled with positive critical reviews that create a buzz, driving higher-than-expected attendance.\n\nBased on these considerations, here is a forecast with corresponding percentiles for the domestic gross earnings during the 5-day opening period of *A Complete Unknown*:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $7 million\nPercentile 20: $9 million\nPercentile 40: $12 million\nPercentile 60: $15 million\nPercentile 80: $18 million\nPercentile 90: $22 million\n```\n\nThese estimates account for potential variability in performance due to the holiday release timing, the film's cast and director, and general market trends.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately two weeks, as the film \"A Complete Unknown\" is set to release on December 25, 2024, and the five-day period extends through December 29, 2024. \n\n(b) If nothing changed, meaning no additional marketing efforts or unexpected events occurred, the film could perform moderately well, given the holiday period and the strong market presence of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet. However, without additional context, it's challenging to accurately predict a specific outcome. \n\n(c) If the current trend continued, where films released on Christmas Day tend to perform well, with past examples earning over $5 million in their opening five-day periods, \"A Complete Unknown\" could likely achieve similar earnings. The strong market draw of Chalamet and the director's previous successes suggest a positive outlook.\n\n(d) The expectations of experts and markets would likely lean towards a favorable box office performance, considering the holiday release, strong lead actor, and director's track record. However, without specific data on promotional strategies or competing films, these expectations are speculative.\n\n(e) An unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome could involve a major competing film releasing simultaneously, drawing audiences away, or negative critical reviews that significantly impact audience interest.\n\n(f) An unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome might include a significant surge in interest due to a viral marketing campaign or a major award nomination shortly before release, boosting anticipation and ticket sales.\n\nTaking these considerations into account, the wide 90/10 confidence intervals reflect the potential variability in outcomes:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $5 million\nPercentile 20: $7 million\nPercentile 40: $10 million\nPercentile 60: $13 million\nPercentile 80: $18 million\nPercentile 90: $22 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nBefore providing a forecast for the domestic gross earnings of \"A Complete Unknown\" during its 5-day opening run from December 25 through December 29, 2024, I'll address the key points:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** The movie opens on December 25, 2024, and we are currently on December 17, 2024. This means we have approximately 12 days until the opening, and the earnings for the period in question will be known shortly after December 29, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:** In a scenario where no additional information or changes occur, we rely on historical performance and known factors. James Mangold's track record with biographical films, the star power of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, and the holiday release timing suggest a potential moderate to strong opening. However, given the lack of specific projections or unique selling points beyond the usual expectations for a biopic, a conservative estimate might be around $30-$50 million.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:** If current trends and factors, such as increasing competition from streaming services and a crowded holiday movie schedule, continue, the earnings might align with or slightly exceed the conservative estimate. This could place the earnings in the range of $40-$60 million.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:** Without specific projections available, it's challenging to pinpoint expert expectations. However, the combination of Mangold's previous successes and Chalamet's star power might suggest an anticipation of $50 million or more, especially if the film receives positive critical reception.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:** An unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome could involve significant competition from other high-profile releases or negative reviews that dampen audience interest. Additionally, a severe winter storm impacting major markets could reduce theater attendance.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:** A high outcome could occur if the film receives unexpected critical acclaim or award nominations, sparking increased interest and strong word-of-mouth. Additionally, a standout performance by Chalamet or a viral marketing campaign could drive higher-than-expected attendance.\n\nGiven these considerations, here's a forecast for the domestic gross earnings of \"A Complete Unknown\" during its 5-day opening period:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $25 million\nPercentile 20: $35 million\nPercentile 40: $45 million\nPercentile 60: $55 million\nPercentile 80: $65 million\nPercentile 90: $75 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome is known: The film \"A Complete Unknown\" is set to open on December 25, 2024, and the forecast is for the 5-day period ending December 29, 2024. Therefore, the outcome will be known shortly after December 29, likely by early January 2025.\n\n(b) The outcome if nothing changed: If we assume no changes in current expectations and trends, the film might perform in line with other biographical films by James Mangold and films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, which suggests a moderate box office performance. Given Mangold's history of successful films and Chalamet's draw, a reasonable estimate might be in the range of $30-$50 million for the 5-day period.\n\n(c) The outcome if the current trend continued: If the trend of increased holiday movie attendance and interest in biographical films continues, along with Chalamet's rising popularity, the film could see higher earnings, potentially reaching $60-$75 million.\n\n(d) The expectations of experts and markets: Currently, there are no specific projections from industry analysts for \"A Complete Unknown.\" However, given the director's reputation and the holiday release timing, industry experts might expect it to open moderately well, with potential to exceed expectations if it receives positive reviews and strong word-of-mouth.\n\n(e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome: An unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome could be negative critical reviews or poor audience reception, which could significantly dampen box office performance. Additionally, strong competition from other films released during the same period or disruptions due to external factors (e.g., severe weather, health concerns) could negatively impact attendance.\n\n(f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome: An unexpected scenario leading to a high outcome could involve the film receiving exceptional critical acclaim and awards-season buzz, driving greater audience interest. Additionally, a standout performance by Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet or a strong marketing campaign could elevate its profile and result in higher-than-expected earnings.\n\nFinal answer:\n```\nPercentile 10: $25 million\nPercentile 20: $35 million\nPercentile 40: $45 million\nPercentile 60: $55 million\nPercentile 80: $65 million\nPercentile 90: $75 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\nTo forecast the domestic gross earnings of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening 5-day period from December 25th to December 29th, 2024, let's break down the process:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known**: The outcome will be known shortly after December 29th, 2024, as box office data is typically reported by the following day or within a few days.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed**: If the film's performance aligns with average biographical films and films released during Christmas, we might expect earnings similar to other successful biographical films or films released at this time, which often see strong box office numbers due to the holiday.\n\n(c) **Outcome if the current trend continued**: Considering James Mangold's track record and Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's draw, the film could see a strong opening, potentially similar to other successful biopics or holiday releases. A reasonable estimate might be in the range of $30-$50 million, given the factors involved.\n\n(d) **Expectations of experts and markets**: While specific projections are not available, industry analysts typically look at factors such as star power, director reputation, marketing strategy, and competition. Given the film's subject matter and the holiday release, expectations might lean towards a solid opening, though not necessarily blockbuster-level without extraordinary reviews or buzz.\n\n(e) **Unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome**: Poor reviews or competition from other major releases, especially if there are unexpected hits during the holiday season, could dampen earnings. Additionally, adverse weather or other unforeseen events affecting theater attendance could result in lower-than-expected earnings.\n\n(f) **Unexpected scenario leading to a high outcome**: Exceptional critical acclaim, strong word-of-mouth, or awards buzz could elevate interest in the film. Additionally, if the film captures the cultural zeitgeist or if there are no strong competing films, it could exceed expectations significantly.\n\nBased on these considerations, here's a forecast with wide confidence intervals to account for uncertainties:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $15 million\nPercentile 20: $20 million\nPercentile 40: $30 million\nPercentile 60: $40 million\nPercentile 80: $50 million\nPercentile 90: $60 million\n``` \n\nThese estimates reflect the potential variability in box office performance due to the factors discussed and aim to capture a range of plausible outcomes.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n**(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** \nThe outcome will be known shortly after the 5-day box office period, which ends on December 29, 2024. Given that today is December 17, 2024, there are 12 days remaining until the end of this period.\n\n**(b) The outcome if nothing changed:** \nIf nothing were to change, and assuming typical market conditions, a biographical film such as \"A Complete Unknown,\" directed by James Mangold and starring popular actors like Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, would likely perform moderately well. Considering Mangold's previous biographical films and Chalamet's drawing power, a reasonable estimate could be in the range of $20-$40 million for the 5-day opening period.\n\n**(c) The outcome if the current trend continued:** \nPast trends for Mangold's films and recent biographical films suggest that \"A Complete Unknown\" could follow a similar path to films like \"Walk the Line,\" although possibly adjusted for inflation and current market conditions. If the trend of strong openings for Mangold's films continues, the film could earn between $30-$50 million over the 5-day period.\n\n**(d) The expectations of experts and markets:** \nWithout specific projections from industry analysts, we can infer from typical market performance and the film's potential appeal. Given the holiday release and the popularity of both Dylan's music and the film's cast, experts might expect a strong opening, possibly exceeding $40 million if the film receives positive reviews and strong promotional support.\n\n**(e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:** \nAn unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome might involve negative critical reviews or a significant competing release that draws away the target audience. Additionally, adverse weather conditions or a resurgence in health-related restrictions could reduce theater attendance, resulting in earnings below $20 million.\n\n**(f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:** \nConversely, a high outcome could result from overwhelmingly positive critical reviews and word-of-mouth that draw in not just Dylan fans but a broad audience. A strong promotional push or unexpected cultural relevance could propel the film to exceed $60 million during the 5-day period.\n\n**Final Answer:**\n```\nPercentile 10: $18 million\nPercentile 20: $24 million\nPercentile 40: $32 million\nPercentile 60: $40 million\nPercentile 80: $50 million\nPercentile 90: $60 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\nGiven the task of forecasting the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day opening from Christmas 2024 through December 29, 2024, I'll go through the provided steps and synthesize the information before making a prediction.\n\n### (a) The Time Left Until the Outcome is Known:\nToday is December 17, 2024, and the film opens on December 25, 2024. The forecast period ends on December 29, 2024. Thus, the outcome will be known shortly after that date, likely by January 1, 2025.\n\n### (b) The Outcome if Nothing Changed:\nIf no new information or significant changes occur, the film's performance might mirror similar films in its genre and release period. Comparable biographical films, especially those released during the Christmas period, have varied widely in success, often depending on critical reception, star power, and marketing.\n\n### (c) The Outcome if the Current Trend Continued:\nIf current trends in biographical films and those starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet continue, it might achieve moderate success. Chalamet's recent work, like \"Wonka,\" shows he can draw audiences, though not necessarily in blockbuster numbers. James Mangold's track record with biographical films and the holiday release could provide a modest boost.\n\n### (d) The Expectations of Experts and Markets:\nThere is no specific data from industry analysts on this film's expected opening, but historically, films by Mangold and with Chalamet have had respectable openings. Given the holiday release, there's potential for higher-than-average attendance.\n\n### (e) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a Low Outcome:\nNegative reviews, overshadowing by other Christmas releases, or adverse weather conditions affecting key markets could result in lower attendance. Additionally, if the film doesn't resonate with audiences or if streaming services draw away potential viewers, it could underperform.\n\n### (f) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a High Outcome:\nPositive critical reception, awards buzz, or a standout performance by Chalamet could drive higher attendance. Additionally, strong marketing campaigns or significant interest in Bob Dylan's life could lead to a surge in viewership.\n\n### Final Answer:\nGiven the information, my forecast for the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day opening period is as follows:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $20 million\nPercentile 20: $30 million\nPercentile 40: $40 million\nPercentile 60: $50 million\nPercentile 80: $60 million\nPercentile 90: $70 million\n```\n\nThese estimates consider the potential variability in audience reception, competition, and the impact of the holiday season on movie attendance.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nBefore providing a forecast, let's go through the necessary steps:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:**\nThe film \"A Complete Unknown\" is set to be released on December 25, 2024, and the five-day period for box office earnings will conclude on December 29, 2024. Today is December 17, 2024, so there are about eight days remaining until the release and approximately 12 days until the earnings outcome is known.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:**\nIf nothing changed, the film would not have any earnings because it wouldn't be released. However, since the release date is fixed, this scenario is not applicable here.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:**\nCurrent trends suggest strong social media buzz and critical acclaim for \"A Complete Unknown.\" If these trends continue, the film could have a solid opening, driven by interest in Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance as Bob Dylan and the holiday release timing, which generally boosts attendance.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:**\nExperts likely anticipate a strong opening for \"A Complete Unknown,\" especially given the holiday release and positive buzz around the film. However, exact expectations might vary, particularly considering the mixed performance of films during the Christmas period in recent years.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:**\nAn unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome could involve a major winter storm or severe weather conditions affecting large parts of North America, significantly reducing theater attendance during the Christmas week. Additionally, poor word-of-mouth after the initial release could dampen interest.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:**\nA high outcome could occur if the film receives overwhelming positive reviews immediately upon release, creating a viral moment on social media. Additionally, if the film garners significant award buzz or unexpected endorsements from influential figures, it could drive higher turnout than anticipated.\n\nNow, considering these points, here's the final forecast with a 90/10 confidence interval:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $10 million\nPercentile 20: $15 million\nPercentile 40: $25 million\nPercentile 60: $35 million\nPercentile 80: $45 million\nPercentile 90: $55 million\n```\n\nThis forecast takes into account the strong social media buzz, critical acclaim, and the holiday release timing, while also considering potential risks and uncertainties that could impact box office performance.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n### Forecasting Framework\n\n(a) **Time Left Until Outcome is Known:**\nThe film *A Complete Unknown* is set for release on December 25, 2024, and the five-day box office performance will be tracked through December 29, 2024. Thus, the outcome will be known shortly after this period, likely by early January 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if Nothing Changed:**\nIf nothing changed, considering the positive buzz and critical acclaim, *A Complete Unknown* could perform well, but given the variability in historical performances of biographical films, it might achieve moderate success around industry averages for similar films.\n\n(c) **Outcome if Current Trend Continued:**\nGiven the existing positive critical reception and social media buzz, the film could see a strong opening. Historically, films with similar pre-release buzz have had successful openings; therefore, if this trend continues, the film could potentially exceed average biographical film earnings.\n\n(d) **Expectations of Experts and Markets:**\nThe film benefits from the star power of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet and the direction of James Mangold, both of whom have histories of strong box office performances. The timing of its release during the lucrative Christmas period also aligns with higher audience turnout. Experts and markets might expect the film to perform well, potentially achieving a box office gross in the range of $20 million to $30 million over the five-day period.\n\n(e) **Unexpected Low Outcome Scenario:**\nAn unexpected low outcome might occur if the film faces unforeseen competition from other major releases during the same period, or if there is a significant shift in audience preferences. Additionally, adverse weather conditions or other external factors affecting theater attendance could also result in lower earnings.\n\n(f) **Unexpected High Outcome Scenario:**\nA high outcome scenario could emerge if the film receives extraordinary word-of-mouth reviews, leading to a wider audience reach. Additionally, if the film garners awards recognition or nominations shortly after release, it could boost attendance significantly, pushing box office earnings higher than expected.\n\n### Final Answer (Box Office Gross Predictions in USD)\n\n- **Percentile 10:** $10 million\n- **Percentile 20:** $15 million\n- **Percentile 40:** $20 million\n- **Percentile 60:** $25 million\n- **Percentile 80:** $30 million\n- **Percentile 90:** $35 million\n\nThis forecast considers the available data on critical reception, timing of release, historical performance of biographical films, and the influence of star power and direction. It also acknowledges the inherent uncertainties in predicting box office performance.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:**\n\nThe film is slated for release on December 25, 2024, and the 5-day box office figure will be known by December 30, 2024, which is approximately 13 days from today, December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:**\n\nIf current factors remain unchanged, including social media buzz, critical acclaim, and historical performance of similar films, the film could perform well due to its holiday release and Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's popularity. However, without additional data, it's difficult to determine a precise figure.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:**\n\nAssuming that the positive critical reception and social media buzz continue to build, and considering the historical performance of similar films, the film could potentially achieve a strong opening. Biographical films with strong performances and high-profile directors have seen moderate to strong box office results in similar circumstances.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:**\n\nExperts might expect a solid performance given the film's critical acclaim, Chalamet's star power, and the historical success of James Mangold's films. However, competition from other holiday releases and market conditions could impact expectations. Markets typically anticipate higher attendance during the holiday season, which could boost earnings.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:**\n\nUnexpectedly poor word-of-mouth or negative critical reviews that surface post-release could hamper the film's performance. Additionally, severe weather conditions or other unforeseen events affecting major markets could lead to lower theater attendance.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:**\n\nIf the film receives overwhelmingly positive audience reviews, leading to strong word-of-mouth, it could significantly exceed expectations. Additionally, if other holiday releases underperform or are delayed, it could reduce competition and boost earnings for *A Complete Unknown*.\n\n**Final Answer:**\n\nGiven the information and considering various scenarios, I would forecast the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during the 5-day period as follows:\n\nPercentile 10: $10 million \nPercentile 20: $15 million \nPercentile 40: $22 million \nPercentile 60: $28 million \nPercentile 80: $35 million \nPercentile 90: $42 million \n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is roughly two weeks, as the film's release and the subsequent five-day box office period will run from December 25, 2024, through December 29, 2024.\n\n(b) The outcome if nothing changed would theoretically be the zero earnings since the movie has not yet been released. However, this doesn't apply here, as the film is scheduled for release and will earn during the specified period.\n\n(c) The outcome if the current trend continued would be difficult to specify exactly, as current trends include the film's positive critical reception, social media buzz, and Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's strong fan base. These factors suggest a favorable opening, potentially in line with other successful biographical films or films starring Chalamet that have performed well.\n\n(d) The expectations of experts and markets might lean toward a positive outcome given the critical acclaim, the timing of the release during the lucrative Christmas period, and the involvement of a popular actor and a respected director. \n\n(e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome might include severe weather conditions or a resurgence of pandemic-related restrictions that deter audiences from attending theaters during the Christmas period.\n\n(f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome might involve the film receiving an unexpected surge in word-of-mouth praise after its release, leading to widespread attention and increased attendance, or perhaps a notable award nomination or win that draws additional interest.\n\nTaking into account the factors mentioned, such as the film's positive buzz, the holiday release timing, and the historical performance of similar films, I would project the following:\n\nPercentile 10: $10 million \nPercentile 20: $15 million \nPercentile 40: $22 million \nPercentile 60: $30 million \nPercentile 80: $40 million \nPercentile 90: $50 million\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\nTo address the interview question, I will consider various factors and scenarios that could influence the box office performance of \"A Complete Unknown\" during its opening 5-day period from Christmas 2024 through December 29, 2024.\n\n### Analysis Framework\n\n#### (a) The Time Left Until the Outcome is Known\nThe outcome will be known shortly after December 29, 2024, as box office data is typically reported soon after the weekend ends.\n\n#### (b) The Outcome if Nothing Changed\nIf nothing were to change, based on current trends and data, the film could be expected to perform decently due to its critical acclaim, strong cast, and the historical success of James Mangold's films. Additionally, the Christmas release window is generally favorable for films.\n\n#### (c) The Outcome if the Current Trend Continued\nContinuing the current trend of strong critical reception and social media buzz, the film could achieve a successful opening, potentially in the range of $10-20 million, given the factors at play.\n\n#### (d) The Expectations of Experts and Markets\nExperts and industry watchers might expect a decent performance, considering the film's positive reviews, lead cast's popularity, and the director's track record. The film might be expected to earn somewhere between $10-25 million over the 5-day period.\n\n#### (e) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a Low Outcome\nAn unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome might include a significant winter storm that disrupts movie-going in key markets, or the release of a competing blockbuster that captures the majority of the audience's attention.\n\n#### (f) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a High Outcome\nA high outcome could result from unexpected factors such as a major award nomination announcement during the release period, which boosts audience interest and attendance. Additionally, if the film resonates exceptionally well with audiences, positive word-of-mouth could significantly drive box office numbers.\n\n### Final Answer\n\nTaking into account the information and analysis above, here are the projected percentiles for \"A Complete Unknown\" in terms of domestic gross earnings during the 5-day opening period:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $8 million\nPercentile 20: $10 million\nPercentile 40: $15 million\nPercentile 60: $20 million\nPercentile 80: $25 million\nPercentile 90: $30 million\n```\n\nThese projections reflect a range of outcomes, considering both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, while accounting for the inherent uncertainties in predicting box office performance.\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 1.6582049999999986, + "minutes_taken": 1.5967149615287781, + "forecast_info": [], + "prediction": { + "declared_percentiles": [ + { + "value": 10.0, + "percentile": 0.1 + }, + { + "value": 10.3, + "percentile": 0.10600000000000002 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The resolution source will be the social media analytics website Social Blade.\n\nThe three Twitter/X accounts are: \n\n* [Elon Musk](https://x.com/elonmusk) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk/monthly).\n* [The New York Times](https://x.com/nytimes) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/nytimes/monthly).\n* [The Economist](https://x.com/TheEconomist) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/theeconomist/monthly).\n\nThe number of tweets reported by Social Blade for December 21-December 30, 2024 (inclusive) will be summed for each Twitter/X account.", + "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie or other such edge cases preventing there from being a clear winner, this question will be annulled. ", + "background_info": "Wikipedia: [Twitter under Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) | The Economist: [Elon Musk\u2019s transformation, in his own words Our analysis of 38,000 posts on X reveal a changed man](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/11/21/elon-musks-transformation-in-his-own-words) | Fortune: [Elon Musk\u2019s X/Twitter removes the New York Times\u2019 gold verification badge](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-x-twitter-removes-151913195.html)", + "close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00", + "actual_resolution_time": null, + "scheduled_resolution_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00", + "date_accessed": "2024-12-17T15:05:53.555361", + "api_json": { + "id": 31010, + "title": "Who will send out more tweets in the 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024--Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist?", + "url_title": "Most tweets Dec 21-30 '24: Elon Musk, NYT, or The Economist?", + "slug": "most-tweets-dec-21-30-24-elon-musk-nyt-or-the-economist", + "author_id": 115975, + "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", + "coauthors": [], + "projects": { + "category": [ + { + "id": 3696, + "name": "Sports & Entertainment", + "slug": "sports-entertainment", + "description": "Sports & Entertainment", + "type": "category" + }, + { + "id": 3698, + "name": "Economy & Business", + "slug": "economy-business", + "description": "Economy & Business", + "type": "category" + }, + { + "id": 3701, + "name": "Technology", + "slug": "technology", + "description": "Technology", + "type": "category" + } + ], + "question_series": [ + { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + ], + "default_project": { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + }, + "created_at": "2024-12-12T20:27:02.340076Z", + "published_at": "2024-12-14T14:25:46.032073Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-17T15:00:38.165356Z", + "curation_status": "approved", + "comment_count": 0, + "status": "open", + "resolved": false, + "actual_close_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "nr_forecasters": 12, + "question": { + "id": 30770, + "title": "Who will send out more tweets in the 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024--Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist?", + "description": "Wikipedia: [Twitter under Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) | The Economist: [Elon Musk\u2019s transformation, in his own words Our analysis of 38,000 posts on X reveal a changed man](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/11/21/elon-musks-transformation-in-his-own-words) | Fortune: [Elon Musk\u2019s X/Twitter removes the New York Times\u2019 gold verification badge](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-x-twitter-removes-151913195.html)", + "created_at": "2024-12-12T20:27:02.340414Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", + "actual_resolve_time": null, + "resolution_set_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "actual_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "type": "multiple_choice", + "options": [ + "Elon Musk: @elonmusk", + "The NY Times: @nytimes", + "The Economist: @TheEconomist" + ], + "group_variable": "X/(formerly Twitter) account", + "status": "open", + "possibilities": null, + "resolution": null, + "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, + "question_weight": 1.0, + "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the option corresponding with the X platform (formerly Twitter) account that has the most posts (tweets) in the 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024. The resolution source will be the social media analytics website Social Blade.\n\nThe three Twitter/X accounts are: \n\n* [Elon Musk](https://x.com/elonmusk) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk/monthly).\n* [The New York Times](https://x.com/nytimes) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/nytimes/monthly).\n* [The Economist](https://x.com/TheEconomist) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/theeconomist/monthly).\n\nThe number of tweets reported by Social Blade for December 21-December 30, 2024 (inclusive) will be summed for each Twitter/X account.", + "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie or other such edge cases preventing there from being a clear winner, this question will be annulled. 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"forecast_values": [ + 0.7, + 0.2, + 0.10000000000000005 + ], + "interval_lower_bounds": null, + "centers": null, + "interval_upper_bounds": null, + "slider_values": null + }, + "score_data": {} + }, + "withdraw_permitted": false + }, + "user_permission": "forecaster", + "vote": { + "score": 0, + "user_vote": null + }, + "forecasts_count": 138, + "unread_comment_count": 0, + "last_viewed_at": "2024-12-17T14:34:20.524749Z", + "is_current_content_translated": false + }, + "already_forecasted": true, + "options": [ + "Elon Musk: @elonmusk", + "The NY Times: @nytimes", + "The Economist: @TheEconomist" + ] + }, + "explanation": "\n# SUMMARY\n*Question*: Who will send out more tweets in the 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024--Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist?\n*Final Prediction*: \n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65.0%\n\n*Total Cost*: $1.57\n*Time Spent*: 1.6 minutes\n\n\n## Report 1 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 60.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15.0%\n\n*Forecaster 2*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 3*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 4*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15.0%\n\n*Forecaster 5*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nThe research report examines the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist on their respective X accounts, focusing on the period from December 21-30, 2024. Recent data indicates that Elon Musk has been more active on X compared to The New York Times, with at least three tweets in a five-day span, while The New York Times tweeted twice over eight days. The Economist's recent tweet frequency is not specified, but they are actively expanding their social media team, suggesting a potential increase in activity [Q1, Q3].\n\nFactors influencing tweet frequency include Elon Musk's known high engagement on social media, The New York Times' steady stream of news updates, and The Economist's focus on global news and analysis. The holiday season and strategic goals of these entities could impact their tweet activity, with Musk likely to tweet more frequently based on recent patterns and engagement levels [Q2, Q4].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- No specific historical data is available on the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the holiday season over the past three years [B1, B2, B3].\n- There is no specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period over the past year [B4].\n- No specific data is available on how often The New York Times has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period over the past year [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- Elon Musk has a pattern of frequent tweeting, with recent activity showing multiple tweets in a short span, suggesting he may continue this trend during the specified period [Q1, Q2].\n- The Economist is expanding its social media team, indicating a potential increase in tweet frequency and engagement [Q3].\n\n#### Cons\n- The New York Times' recent tweets show minimal engagement, which could indicate a lower volume of tweets compared to Elon Musk, especially if there are no major news events [Q2].\n- The holiday season might reduce The Economist's output if staff are on leave or if there are fewer newsworthy events [Q2].\n\n\n## Report 2 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 2*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 3*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 4*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 5*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent events suggest potential influences on the tweeting activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the specified period. Elon Musk's involvement in political engagements, particularly with Donald Trump's transition team, may lead to increased tweeting activity as he engages in political discussions or announcements [Q2]. The New York Times is actively covering significant political events, such as Trump's meetings with tech executives, which could also result in heightened tweeting activity as they report on these developments [Q2]. However, there is no specific information about The Economist's recent activities that might influence their tweeting frequency during this period.\n\nHistorically, Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-engagement tweets, often tweeting multiple times a day, which suggests a high volume of tweets over a 10-day period [Q3]. In contrast, The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns, focusing on news updates and articles [Q3]. There are no specific public statements from any of the entities regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024, and no known upcoming events that might trigger increased tweeting from any of the three accounts during the specified period [Q4, Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- There is no direct data available on how often Elon Musk tweets more than The New York Times and The Economist over a 10-day period, but he is known for high engagement and frequent tweeting [B1].\n- Specific data on The New York Times tweeting more than 50 times over a 10-day period in the last year is not available [B2].\n- Specific data on The Economist tweeting more than 30 times over a 10-day period in the last year is not available [B3].\n- Specific data on Elon Musk tweeting more than 100 times in any given 10-day period over the past year is not available [B4].\n\n#### Pros\n- Elon Musk's involvement in political engagements, particularly with Donald Trump's transition team, may lead to increased tweeting activity [Q2].\n- Historically, Elon Musk is known for frequent and high-engagement tweets, suggesting a high volume of tweets over a 10-day period [Q3].\n\n#### Cons\n- There are no specific public statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024 [Q4].\n- There are no known upcoming events or news cycles that might trigger increased tweeting from any of the three accounts during the specified period [Q5].\n\n\n## Report 3 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 60.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 30.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 2*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 3*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nIn the last month, Elon Musk has shown a high level of activity on Twitter, frequently tweeting on various topics and receiving significant engagement. This pattern suggests that Musk is likely to continue his active tweeting behavior during the specified period from December 21-December 30, 2024. In contrast, The New York Times has demonstrated less frequent and less engaging Twitter activity, with minimal interaction on their posts. There is no specific data available for The Economist's recent Twitter activity, but based on general trends, it is likely to maintain a consistent presence, albeit less frequent than Musk's [Q1].\n\nThere are no specific statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their planned posting activity during the holiday period. Additionally, no significant events are anticipated that might directly affect their tweet frequency during this time. However, unforeseen events could potentially influence their activity. Historical trends suggest that Elon Musk remains active on Twitter during the holiday season, while The New York Times and The Economist maintain steady but potentially reduced activity [Q2, Q4, Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Elon Musk has been active on Twitter during the holiday season in previous years, but specific data on tweeting more than 10 times in a 10-day period is unavailable [B1].\n- The New York Times has tweeted more than 50 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season, but specific historical data is lacking [B2].\n- The Economist likely tweets more than 20 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season, though precise historical data is not provided [B3].\n\n#### Pros\n- Elon Musk's recent high engagement and frequent tweeting suggest he may continue this pattern during the specified period [Q1].\n- Historically, Elon Musk has been a prolific user of Twitter, especially after acquiring the platform, indicating a potential for high tweet volume [B4].\n\n#### Cons\n- There are no specific statements or anticipated events that suggest an increase in tweet frequency for any of the accounts during the holiday period [Q2, Q4].\n- The New York Times and The Economist may maintain a steady but potentially reduced tweet frequency during the holiday season, based on historical trends [Q5].\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n## R1: Q1: What is the recent tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist on their respective X accounts?\nAnswer:\nBased on the recent activity on their respective X accounts, here is the tweet frequency for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist:\n\n- **Elon Musk**: Elon Musk has been quite active on X, with tweets on December 11, 14, and 15, 2024 \\[[3](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1866787090102620304#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2Fen%2Fprivacy%20Conversation%20Dec%2011%2010%3A08,to%20the%20and%20%2C%20including)\\]\\[[4](https://twitter.com/ElonMuskAOC/status/1867997487765811267#:~:text=What%20do%20you%20want%20for,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]\\[[11](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1868098574145265777#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20ARMY%2DNAVY%20%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FAEVHGP5v15%7C%20created_at%3A,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20und)\\]. This suggests a pattern of frequent tweeting, with at least three tweets in the span of five days.\n\n- **The New York Times**: The New York Times has also been active, with tweets on December 6 and 14, 2024 \\[[5](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867986222066368830#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2Fe1fM2J6c9D%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[12](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867969622265270725#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FcpLfjzhGmv%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[14](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1864918025570312604#:~:text=Change%20in%20Abstract%20https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FWuZNteUfPi%7C%20created_at%3A,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This indicates a less frequent tweeting pattern compared to Elon Musk, with two tweets over an eight-day period.\n\n- **The Economist**: Unfortunately, there is no specific data available in the search results regarding The Economist's recent tweet frequency. Additional research would be needed to determine their activity level.\n\nGiven this information, Elon Musk appears to have a higher tweet frequency compared to The New York Times in the recent period analyzed. This could suggest that he might continue to tweet more frequently in the upcoming 10-day period from December 21-30, 2024.\n\n\n## R1: Q2: What factors could influence the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the specified period?\nAnswer:\nTo forecast who will send out more tweets between Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist from December 21-30, 2024, consider the following factors:\n\n1. **Elon Musk's Tweeting Behavior**: Elon Musk is known for his high engagement on Twitter, often tweeting multiple times a day. Recent activity shows he tweeted on December 12, 14, and 15, 2024, with high engagement metrics such as 179,378 favorites and 12,174 retweets on a single tweet [3, 7]. This suggests a high likelihood of continued frequent tweeting, especially if he is involved in ongoing discussions or events.\n\n2. **The New York Times' Tweeting Patterns**: The New York Times typically maintains a steady stream of tweets, often focusing on news updates and articles. However, recent tweets from their account show minimal engagement, with some tweets having no retweets or favorites [5, 9, 15]. This could indicate a lower volume of tweets compared to Elon Musk, especially if there are no major news events during the specified period.\n\n3. **The Economist's Activity**: While not directly mentioned in the search results, The Economist generally tweets regularly, focusing on global news and analysis. Their frequency might be influenced by the holiday season, potentially reducing output if staff are on leave or if there are fewer newsworthy events.\n\nOverall, based on recent activity and engagement levels, Elon Musk is likely to tweet more frequently than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n\n## R1: Q3: Have there been any recent statements or strategies from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their social media engagement?\nAnswer:\nRecent developments regarding social media engagement strategies from The Economist and The New York Times provide some insights into their potential activity levels on platforms like Twitter. The Economist is actively expanding its social media team, hiring a Social-Media Editor and a Social-Media Fellow to enhance their digital presence. Their strategy focuses on distributing journalism across various digital channels, including social media platforms, newsletters, and emerging formats like WhatsApp Channels and Apple News. This indicates a concerted effort to increase their social media output and engagement \\[[1](https://www.economist.com/news/2024/01/31/the-economists-social-media-team-is-hiring-in-london#:~:text=They%20are%20innovative%2C%20unstoppable%20newshounds,accurate%20manner%20across%20digital%20channels.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.economist.com/news/2024/01/31/the-economists-social-media-team-is-hiring-in-london#:~:text=We%20are%20now%20hiring%20a,have%20told%20engaging%20stories%20online.)\\].\n\nThe New York Times, on the other hand, has been focusing on integrating social media strategies with their broader audience engagement efforts. Jake Grovum, a social strategy editor, has been working closely with various desks to ensure their journalism reaches a wide audience in a compelling manner. This includes collaboration with visual departments to enhance the sharing of their work on social platforms \\[[6](https://www.nytco.com/press/a-promotion-for-jake-grovum-2/#:~:text=He%E2%80%99ll%20partner%20with%20news%20desks%2C,share%20their%20signature%20work%20off%2Dplatform.)\\]. While specific strategies for Twitter are not detailed, this approach suggests a robust and potentially high-volume social media presence.\n\nNo specific recent statements or strategies from Elon Musk regarding his personal social media engagement were found in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R1: Q4: What events or news are expected between December 21-December 30, 2024, that might impact tweet activity for these accounts?\nAnswer:\nBetween December 21-30, 2024, several factors could influence tweet activity for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist. \n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Musk's influence in both social media and Washington is significant, and he is frequently a topic of discussion in the news \\[[15](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/05/elon-musk-jeff-bezos-news#:~:text=Between%20the%20lines%3A%20In%20news,Musk%20even%20more.%20Go%20deeper)\\]. This could lead to increased tweet activity as he engages with his audience and responds to ongoing discussions. Additionally, the presence of alternative platforms like Bluesky, which has gained traction as a refuge from Musk's influence on X (formerly Twitter), might impact his tweeting behavior as he potentially seeks to retain his audience \\[[3](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/magazine/bluesky-social-media.html#:~:text=Bluesky%2C%20created%20by%20one%20of,she%20posted%20on%20the%20site.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/magazine/bluesky-social-media.html#:~:text=Call%20it%20whatever.%20But%20each,the%20interferences%20of%20Elon%20Musk.)\\].\n\n2. **The New York Times and The Economist**: Both publications are likely to maintain high tweet activity due to their extensive global coverage and subscriber base. The New York Times, in particular, is working towards expanding its subscriber base to 10 million by 2025, which may drive increased content sharing and engagement on social media platforms \\[[9](https://dv.nytimes.com#:~:text=Times%20journalism%20is%20in%20amazing,world%2Dclass%20technology%20and%20product%20company.)\\]. The period in question might also coincide with significant news events or end-of-year retrospectives, which typically result in heightened activity for news organizations.\n\nThese dynamics suggest that while all three accounts may be active, Musk's personal engagement and the strategic goals of the news organizations could lead to varying levels of tweet activity.\n\n\n## R1: Q5: What are the historical tweet patterns for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the holiday season in previous years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical tweet patterns of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the holiday season. To provide a useful answer, I would recommend looking at historical data from Twitter analytics or third-party tools that track tweet frequency and patterns for these accounts. Typically, Elon Musk is known for his high volume of tweets, often engaging with followers and discussing various topics, including technology and business. The New York Times and The Economist, on the other hand, tend to have more structured and scheduled tweet patterns, focusing on news and analysis.\n\nFor a more accurate prediction, it would be beneficial to analyze past data from the same period in previous years to identify any trends or changes in their tweeting behavior during the holiday season. This could involve looking at the number of tweets sent by each account in the last few years during the same 10-day period.\n\n\n\n## R1: B1: Over the past 3 years, how often has Elon Musk tweeted more than The New York Times and The Economist during the holiday season (December 21-30)?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results provided, there is no direct information available regarding the specific number of tweets Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist have sent during the holiday season (December 21-30) over the past three years. The search results primarily contain individual tweets and discussions that do not provide comprehensive data on tweet counts for these entities during the specified period.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access historical Twitter data or analytics that track the tweet activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the holiday seasons of the past three years. This data is not available in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R1: B2: Over the past 3 years, how often has The New York Times tweeted more than The Economist and Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30)?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on the number of tweets sent by The New York Times, The Economist, or Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30) over the past three years. Therefore, I cannot directly answer how often The New York Times has tweeted more than The Economist and Elon Musk during this period. \n\nTo address this question, you would need to access historical Twitter data or analytics tools that track tweet volumes for these accounts over the specified time frame. This data is typically available through platforms like Twitter's API or third-party social media analytics services.\n\n\n## R1: B3: Over the past 3 years, how often has The Economist tweeted more than The New York Times and Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30)?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the tweeting activity of The Economist, The New York Times, or Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30) over the past three years. Therefore, I cannot directly answer the question based on the available data. However, I can suggest a general approach to finding this information:\n\n1. **Twitter Analytics**: Accessing Twitter's analytics tools or third-party services like Social Blade or Tweet Binder could provide historical data on tweet counts for specific accounts during the specified period.\n\n2. **Manual Review**: Manually reviewing the Twitter timelines of The Economist, The New York Times, and Elon Musk for the specified dates in previous years could help determine their tweeting frequency.\n\n3. **Media Reports**: Checking media reports or articles that might have analyzed or mentioned the tweeting habits of these entities during the holiday season could provide insights.\n\nIf you have access to these tools or resources, they could help you gather the necessary data to make a more informed prediction.\n\n\n## R1: B4: Over the past year, how often has Elon Musk tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period over the past year. However, they do offer some context about general Twitter usage patterns and activity levels post-Musk's acquisition of Twitter. For instance, there has been a noticeable decline in the average number of tweets per month by the most active users following Musk's acquisition, with a 25% decrease in tweet volume \\[[4](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/17/how-us-adults-on-twitter-use-the-site-in-the-elon-musk-era/#:~:text=These%20users%E2%80%99%20average%20number%20of,of%20tweeters%20since%20the%20acquisition.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/17/how-us-adults-on-twitter-use-the-site-in-the-elon-musk-era/#:~:text=And%20a%20quarter%20of%20these,the%20site%20in%20October%202022.)\\]. This suggests a potential reduction in overall tweeting activity, which might indirectly affect Musk's tweeting frequency as well.\n\nTo obtain precise data on Musk's tweeting frequency, one would need to access his Twitter account's activity logs or use a Twitter analytics tool that tracks his tweet history over the specified period. Unfortunately, such specific data is not available in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R1: B5: Over the past year, how often has The New York Times tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain any information regarding the frequency of tweets by The New York Times over the past year. Therefore, I am unable to directly answer the question based on the given data. To accurately determine how often The New York Times has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period, I recommend checking their official Twitter account or using a social media analytics tool that tracks their tweet frequency over the specified timeframe.\n\n\n\n## R2: Q1: What has been the recent tweeting activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist in the past month according to Social Blade?\nAnswer:\nError in generating answer\n\n\n## R2: Q2: Has there been any recent news or events involving Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist that might influence their tweeting activity during the specified period?\nAnswer:\nRecent events involving Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist could potentially influence their tweeting activity during the specified period. Elon Musk has been actively involved in political engagements, as he is part of a group of influential Silicon Valley billionaires who have been supporting Donald Trump's transition after endorsing him in the campaign \\[[2](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/technology/trump-tech-amazon-meta-openai.html#:~:text=Tim%20Cook%20%2C%20Apple%E2%80%99s%20chief,endorsing%20him%20in%20the%20campaign.)\\]. This involvement might lead to increased tweeting activity from Musk, especially if he continues to engage in political discussions or announcements related to these events.\n\nOn the other hand, The New York Times has been covering significant political events, such as Donald Trump's meetings with tech executives and his first news conference since the election \\[[4](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/briefing/trump-news-conference-germany-government-collapse.html#:~:text=When%20we%20have%20confirmed%20access%2C,relished%20seizing%20the%20world%E2%80%99s%20attention.)\\]. This focus on high-profile political coverage could lead to an increase in their tweeting activity as they report on these developments. However, there is no specific information about The Economist's recent activities that might influence their tweeting frequency during this period.\n\n\n## R2: Q3: What are the historical tweeting patterns and averages for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist over similar 10-day periods in past years?\nAnswer:\nTo assess the historical tweeting patterns of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist over similar 10-day periods, we can look at recent activity as a proxy. Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-engagement tweets. For instance, between December 9 and December 15, 2024, Musk tweeted multiple times, with some tweets receiving significant engagement, such as one on December 15 with over 179,000 likes and 12,174 retweets \\[[13](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1868098574145265777#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20ARMY%2DNAVY%20%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FAEVHGP5v15%7C%20created_at%3A,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20und)\\]. This suggests a high volume of tweets and interactions.\n\nIn contrast, The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns, focusing on news updates and articles. However, specific data for their tweet counts over a similar period is not provided in the search results. Historically, major news outlets like these tend to tweet several times a day, but not at the same volume or engagement level as a high-profile individual like Musk.\n\nGiven this information, it is likely that Elon Musk will have a higher tweet count and engagement over a 10-day period compared to The New York Times and The Economist, based on his recent activity and historical patterns.\n\n\n## R2: Q4: Have Elon Musk or the organizations (The New York Times, The Economist) made any public statements regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results provided, there are no specific public statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024. The results primarily focus on general social media usage and the presence of news influencers on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) but do not include any direct statements or plans from the entities in question about their tweeting activity during the specified period. \n\nFor instance, a Pew Research study highlights that a significant portion of news influencers are active on X, with 85% having accounts there \\[[1](https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2024/11/18/how-we-created-a-list-of-popular-news-influencers-and-where-they-post/#:~:text=For%20more%20information%2C%20refer%20to,X%2C%20formerly%20known%20as%20Twitter.)\\]. However, this does not directly address the specific social media strategies or plans of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist for the end of December 2024.\n\n\n## R2: Q5: Are there any known upcoming events or news cycles in the specified 10-day period that might trigger increased tweeting from any of the three accounts?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there are no specific upcoming events or news cycles mentioned that would directly trigger increased tweeting from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the specified 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024. The results primarily focus on general information about The New York Times' goals and operations, and unrelated events like RNG Day and Brazzeltag [1-15].\n\nHowever, it is worth noting that The New York Times is actively working towards reaching 10 million subscribers by 2025 and is focused on transforming into a world-class technology and product company \\[[4](https://dv.nytimes.com#:~:text=Times%20journalism%20is%20in%20amazing,world%2Dclass%20technology%20and%20product%20company.)\\]\\[[5](https://dv.nytimes.com#:~:text=Our%20journalists%20report%20from%20the,field%E2%80%99s%20most%20creative%2C%20distinguished%20technologists.)\\]. This ongoing effort might lead to increased activity on their social media platforms, including Twitter, as they push for more engagement and reach. Additionally, Elon Musk is known for his unpredictable tweeting habits, often influenced by developments in his various business ventures, though no specific events are highlighted in the search results.\n\n\n\n## R2: B1: How often does Elon Musk tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist over a 10-day period based on historical data?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there is no direct data available regarding the frequency of Elon Musk tweeting more than The New York Times and The Economist over a 10-day period. However, we can infer some insights from the general activity on Twitter.\n\nElon Musk is known for his high engagement on Twitter, often tweeting multiple times a day. For instance, a tweet from October 2024 shows significant engagement with 28,454 favorites and 2,921 retweets, indicating active participation on the platform \\[[2](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1844904681585377647#:~:text=For%20my%20time%2Dbased%20predictions%2C%20I,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. In contrast, there is no specific data on the New York Times' or The Economist's tweet frequency in the search results. However, given that these are major media outlets, they likely tweet multiple times daily to share news and updates.\n\nTo make a more informed prediction, historical data on the average number of tweets per day from each account would be necessary. Without this data, it is challenging to accurately determine how often Elon Musk tweets more than these media outlets over a 10-day period.\n\n\n## R2: B2: How often has The New York Times tweeted more than 50 times over a 10-day period in the last year?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the frequency of The New York Times tweeting more than 50 times over a 10-day period in the last year. The results primarily focus on website traffic and unrelated data points from The New York Times. To accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access Twitter analytics or a similar tool that tracks the tweet frequency of The New York Times over the specified period. Unfortunately, this information is not available in the current search results.\n\n\n## R2: B3: How often has The Economist tweeted more than 30 times over a 10-day period in the last year?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific information on how often The Economist has tweeted more than 30 times over a 10-day period in the last year. The results include various tweets from The Economist and other users, but none of them directly address the frequency of The Economist's tweeting activity over specific periods.\n\nTo accurately determine how often The Economist has tweeted more than 30 times over a 10-day period, you would need to analyze their Twitter account's activity using a tool that tracks tweet frequency or manually review their tweet history over the past year. Unfortunately, this specific data is not available in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R2: B4: Over the past year, how often has Elon Musk tweeted more than 100 times in any given 10-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than 100 times in any given 10-day period over the past year. The results primarily focus on Musk's influence on the platform X (formerly Twitter) and his interactions with certain accounts, but they do not provide quantitative data on his tweeting frequency.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access a database or analysis that tracks Musk's tweet frequency over the specified period. This could potentially be found through platforms like SocialBlade or other social media analytics tools that monitor user activity on X. Unfortunately, the current search results do not provide this specific information.\n\n\n## R2: B5: How often have significant political events resulted in increased tweeting activity from Elon Musk in the past year?\nAnswer:\nIn the past year, Elon Musk has shown a pattern of increased tweeting activity in response to significant political events. For instance, on November 15, 2024, Musk tweeted about spending time with Donald Trump and Javier Milei, which garnered substantial engagement with over 342,000 favorites and 27,659 retweets \\[[15](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1857456159759687980#:~:text=Last%20night%20with%20%40realDonaldTrump%20%26amp%3B,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This suggests that Musk's tweeting activity spikes around politically charged events or figures. Additionally, on March 16, 2024, Musk tweeted about the potential for a \"red wave\" in the upcoming elections, which also received significant interaction with 57,290 favorites and 15,799 retweets \\[[3](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1768819343628947703#:~:text=%40anammostarac%20There%20is%20either%20a,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. These examples indicate that Musk tends to tweet more frequently and with higher engagement during politically significant times, which could suggest a potential increase in his tweeting activity during the specified period if similar events occur.\n\n\n\n## R3: Q1: What are the recent tweet patterns of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist in the last month?\nAnswer:\nIn the last month, Elon Musk has been quite active on Twitter, with multiple tweets on various topics. For instance, on December 10, 2024, he tweeted about a prediction, which garnered significant engagement with 22,522 favorites and 2,736 retweets \\[[2](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1866366196146442586#:~:text=The%20crazy%20thing%20is%20that,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. On December 12, 2024, he tweeted about AI models, receiving 19,543 favorites and 1,889 retweets \\[[3](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1867067649471177056#:~:text=The%20truth%2C%20the%20whole%20truth,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This pattern suggests that Musk is consistently tweeting and engaging with his audience.\n\nIn contrast, The New York Times' Twitter activity appears to be less frequent and less engaging. For example, a tweet from December 3, 2024, had only 5 favorites and 2 retweets \\[[1](https://twitter.com/nyttypos/status/1863951483676373002#:~:text=%40nytimes%20You%20have%20a%20paragraph,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. Similarly, other tweets from their account, such as those on December 7 and December 14, 2024, had minimal engagement, with some tweets having no retweets or favorites \\[[10](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1865400485919764955#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FYs8ew9irfU%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2007,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[11](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867999803533095074#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FPMEqMAFs3g%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[12](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867989994343665813#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FiD2OQ5eLzQ%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[13](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867969622265270725#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FcpLfjzhGmv%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\].\n\nUnfortunately, there is no specific data available for The Economist's Twitter activity in the provided search results. However, based on the available data, Elon Musk's recent tweet patterns suggest he is more active and engaging on Twitter compared to The New York Times. This could indicate a higher likelihood of Musk sending out more tweets in the specified period.\n\n\n## R3: Q2: Have there been any statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their upcoming posting activity on X during the holiday period?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there are no specific statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their upcoming posting activity on X during the holiday period from December 21 to December 30, 2024. The search results primarily include general tweets from Elon Musk and other unrelated content, but none address their posting plans for the specified period.\n\n\n## R3: Q3: What are the average daily tweet counts for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist over the last three months?\nAnswer:\nBased on the information available, the average daily tweet counts for the entities in question over the last three months are as follows:\n\n- **Elon Musk**: There is no specific data in the search results regarding Elon Musk's average daily tweet count over the last three months. However, given his active presence on Twitter, it is reasonable to assume he tweets multiple times a day, though exact figures would require further research or direct data from his Twitter account.\n\n- **The New York Times**: The New York Times has been publishing an average of 57 articles per day over the past 30 days, as mentioned in a tweet \\[[12](https://twitter.com/JohnArnoldFndtn/status/1854325150340038953#:~:text=That%27s%20an%20average%20of%2057,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This figure does not directly translate to tweets, but it provides a sense of their content output, which is likely mirrored in their social media activity.\n\n- **The Economist**: There is no specific data in the search results regarding The Economist's average daily tweet count over the last three months. Like The New York Times, The Economist is a major publication likely to have a consistent and frequent presence on Twitter, but exact figures would require further research or direct data from their Twitter account.\n\nFor a more precise prediction, direct access to Twitter analytics for these accounts would be necessary.\n\n\n## R3: Q4: Are there any significant events or news anticipated between December 21-December 30, 2024, that might affect the tweet frequency of these accounts?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there are no significant events or news specifically anticipated between December 21-December 30, 2024, that might directly affect the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist. The search results primarily focus on unrelated topics such as the LessWrong Annual Review, One Piece Card Game events, and RNG Day, none of which are likely to impact the tweeting behavior of these accounts during the specified period.\n\nHowever, it is important to consider that unforeseen events or breaking news could always arise, potentially influencing the tweet frequency of these accounts. For instance, Elon Musk is known for tweeting about SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, or other personal and business-related matters, which could occur unexpectedly. Similarly, The New York Times and The Economist might increase their tweet frequency in response to major global news events. Therefore, while no specific events are currently identified, the dynamic nature of news and social media should be taken into account.\n\n\n## R3: Q5: What are the historical trends in tweet activity for each of these accounts during the holiday season in previous years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical tweet activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the holiday season in previous years. To provide a useful answer, I recommend considering the following general trends and insights based on historical data and typical behavior:\n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Historically, Elon Musk is known for his high activity on Twitter, often tweeting multiple times a day. His tweet frequency can vary significantly based on current events, his business activities, and personal interests. During holiday seasons, his activity might decrease slightly as he engages in personal time, but he often tweets about ongoing projects or personal reflections.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: As a major news organization, The New York Times maintains a consistent presence on Twitter, with frequent updates and news coverage. During the holiday season, their activity might focus on holiday-related news, year-end reviews, and ongoing global events. Their tweet frequency is likely to remain steady, reflecting their commitment to providing continuous news coverage.\n\n3. **The Economist**: Known for its analytical and in-depth content, The Economist typically tweets less frequently than a daily news outlet like The New York Times. During the holiday season, they might focus on year-end analyses and forecasts for the upcoming year. Their tweet frequency might be slightly lower compared to other times of the year, but they maintain a consistent presence.\n\nFor precise historical data, it would be beneficial to analyze the Twitter accounts of these entities using tools like Twitter analytics or third-party services that track social media activity over time.\n\n\n\n## R3: B1: How often has Elon Musk tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there is no direct information available about the frequency of Elon Musk tweeting more than 10 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season over the last five years. However, there are several tweets from Elon Musk and discussions involving him around the holiday season in December 2022, which suggest that he was active on Twitter during that time \\[[2](https://twitter.com/LimitingThe/status/1606053354785984538#:~:text=Great%20Twitter%20spaces%20with%20%40elonmusk,of%20cognitive%20load%20for%20Elon.)\\]\\[[4](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1605995133119258627#:~:text=This%20is%20normal%20for%20video.,%7C%20lang%3A%20en%20%40elonmusk%20.)\\]\\[[8](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1606345442345619456#:~:text=Maybe%20call%20it%20%22Favorite%22%20again,are%20a%20very%20small%20%25.)\\]. This implies that he does engage with the platform during the holiday season, but without specific data on the number of tweets, it's not possible to definitively answer the question about his tweeting frequency exceeding 10 times in a 10-day period.\n\nFor a more accurate assessment, a detailed analysis of Elon Musk's Twitter activity logs during the specified periods over the past five years would be necessary.\n\n\n## R3: B2: How often has The New York Times tweeted more than 50 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often The New York Times has tweeted more than 50 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season over the last five years. However, the results do include some tweets from The New York Times around the holiday season, such as tweets from December 21, 2022, and December 21, 2023 \\[[1](https://twitter.com/heavyredaction/status/1605414819275739136#:~:text=%40nytimes%20is%20simply%20glamorizing%20whining.%7C,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]\\[[3](https://twitter.com/nyttypos/status/1737838465671414069#:~:text=%40nytimes%20%E2%80%9Cthree%20time%E2%80%9D%20is%20a,False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en%20%3C%7Cend)\\]\\[[5](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1737923418345865261#:~:text=2023%20was%20a%20big%20year,False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en%20%3C%7Cendo)\\]. Unfortunately, these snippets do not provide a comprehensive count of tweets over a 10-day period, nor do they offer historical data for the past five years.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, one would need access to a comprehensive dataset or analytics tool that tracks the frequency of tweets from The New York Times over specified periods. This information might be available through Twitter's API or third-party social media analytics platforms.\n\n\n## R3: B3: How often has The Economist tweeted more than 20 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about The Economist's tweeting frequency during the holiday season over the past five years. To accurately answer the question, additional data sources or direct access to The Economist's Twitter account analytics would be necessary. However, based on general knowledge, The Economist is known for maintaining a consistent social media presence, often tweeting multiple times a day, which suggests that it is likely they have tweeted more than 20 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in recent years. For precise statistics, a review of their Twitter activity logs or a third-party analytics tool would be required.\n\n\n## R3: B4: How often has Elon Musk tweeted more than The New York Times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than The New York Times during the holiday season over the past five years. However, they do indicate that Elon Musk has been a prolific user of Twitter, especially after acquiring the platform. His tweet frequency has increased significantly post-acquisition, with a notable rise in engagement metrics such as quote tweets and replies \\[[1](https://www.axios.com/2022/12/06/musk-tweets-engagement-data#:~:text=It%20compares%20engagement%20during%20the,January%202020%20meme%20about%20smartphones.)\\]\\[[2](https://www.axios.com/2022/12/06/musk-tweets-engagement-data#:~:text=The%20ratio%20of%20likes%20to,with%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20tweets%20over%20time.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.statswithsasa.com/2022/12/17/elon-musk-tweets-too-much/#:~:text=Click%20here%20for%20a%20more,at%20the%20beginning%20of%202022.)\\]. This suggests that Musk's tweeting activity has been substantial, potentially surpassing that of major media outlets like The New York Times during certain periods.\n\nTo provide a more precise answer, additional data specifically comparing the tweet counts of Elon Musk and The New York Times during the holiday seasons of the past five years would be necessary.\n\n\n## R3: B5: How often has The New York Times tweeted more than The Economist in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the frequency with which The New York Times has tweeted more than The Economist during the holiday season over the past five years. The results primarily focus on engagement metrics and general content from The New York Times, but do not provide comparative data on tweet volumes between The New York Times and The Economist.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access historical Twitter data or analytics that specifically compare the tweet counts of The New York Times and The Economist during the specified periods. This information might be available through social media analytics platforms or by directly analyzing the Twitter accounts of both organizations over the past five holiday seasons.\n\n\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known**: The specified period for tweet activity is from December 21 to December 30, 2024. Today is December 17, 2024, so there are 13 days left until the period ends and the outcome is known.\n\n(b) **Status quo outcome if nothing changed**: Based on the recent activity and typical tweeting patterns, Elon Musk appears to be the most active on X (formerly Twitter). He has been frequently tweeting, and his engagement levels suggest continued activity. Therefore, if current patterns persist, Elon Musk is likely to send out more tweets than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) **Scenario resulting in an unexpected outcome**: An unexpected outcome might occur if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media during the holiday season, reducing his tweet frequency significantly. Alternatively, a major news event could drive The New York Times or The Economist to increase their tweet output substantially, surpassing Musk\u2019s activity. Additionally, if The Economist implements a new social media strategy or campaign during this period, it might lead to a surge in their tweet frequency.\n\n**Rationale**: \n1. **Elon Musk's Activity**: Musk is known for his high engagement on social media, often tweeting multiple times a day. His recent activity suggests a high likelihood of continued frequent tweeting. Given his unpredictable nature, he might increase his activity, especially if involved in discussions or if any significant events occur related to his businesses.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: While The New York Times has a steady stream of tweets, their recent activity appears less frequent than Musk\u2019s. They may have a structured approach to tweeting, which could be less reactive unless driven by major news events.\n\n3. **The Economist**: Although there is limited specific data about The Economist\u2019s recent tweet frequency, they are generally consistent in their social media presence. However, without evidence of significant recent activity or a strategic push, they are less likely to surpass Musk\u2019s tweeting frequency.\n\nTaking into account the status quo and the potential for unexpected developments, I will assign probabilities with a bias towards the status quo but allowing for the possibility of change.\n\n**Final Probabilities**:\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 60%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) **Time Left Until Outcome is Known**: There are only a few days left until the 10-day period from December 21 to December 30, 2024, commences. The outcome will be determined shortly after this period, once the tweet counts are accessed via Social Blade.\n\n(b) **Status Quo Outcome if Nothing Changed**: Based on the current information, Elon Musk appears to be the most active tweeter among the three accounts. His frequent and often spontaneous tweeting habits suggest that he is likely to tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) **Scenario Resulting in an Unexpected Outcome**: An unexpected outcome could occur if there are significant news events or a strategic shift in social media engagement by The New York Times or The Economist during the period. For instance, if there are major global or national events that The New York Times or The Economist decide to cover extensively on social media, they may significantly increase their tweet frequency. Another scenario could involve Elon Musk taking a break from social media or focusing on other platforms, reducing his tweet volume unexpectedly.\n\n### Rationale:\n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Historically, Elon Musk is known for his high engagement and frequent use of Twitter. He often tweets multiple times a day, discussing various topics ranging from technology to personal opinions. This behavior is likely to continue unless there are unforeseen circumstances that limit his social media usage.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: While The New York Times is a major news outlet that regularly tweets updates, its recent patterns suggest less frequent tweeting compared to Elon Musk. However, the holiday season could bring significant newsworthy events or retrospectives that might increase their tweet volume.\n\n3. **The Economist**: Without specific recent data on The Economist's tweet frequency, predicting their activity is more challenging. However, their focus on global news and analysis might lead to increased activity if there are significant developments during the period.\n\nGiven these considerations and the emphasis on maintaining a balanced view to account for unexpected shifts, the probabilities are as follows:\n\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n### (a) Time Remaining Until Outcome is Known\nThere are approximately 13 days until December 30, 2024, when the tweet frequencies will be assessed for the period from December 21 to December 30, 2024.\n\n### (b) Status Quo Outcome if Nothing Changed\nBased on the recent tweet frequencies, Elon Musk has been more active than The New York Times and The Economist. His pattern of frequent tweeting, especially in short time spans, suggests that he is likely to continue this trend in the upcoming period. Therefore, the status quo outcome is that Elon Musk will send out more tweets than the other two entities.\n\n### (c) Scenario Resulting in an Unexpected Outcome\nAn unexpected outcome could occur if a significant news event or internal decision affects the tweeting patterns of The New York Times or The Economist. For example, if there are major global events that require extensive coverage, both news organizations might increase their tweet output significantly to keep their audiences informed. Similarly, if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media or is engaged in activities that limit his online presence, his tweet frequency might drop, allowing one of the news organizations to surpass him in tweet volume.\n\n### Rationale\n1. **Elon Musk's Consistent Activity**: Historically, Elon Musk has maintained a high level of activity on social media platforms. His recent pattern of tweeting multiple times within a few days indicates that he is likely to continue this behavior unless external factors intervene.\n\n2. **The New York Times and The Economist**: Both organizations are known for their structured and regular tweeting patterns, primarily focused on disseminating news articles and analyses. However, they typically do not match the high engagement level of Elon Musk's personal account. \n\n3. **Influence of Unexpected Events**: While the status quo strongly favors Elon Musk, there is always the potential for unexpected events to disrupt the usual patterns. For instance, a major news event could lead to both The New York Times and The Economist increasing their tweet frequency to provide real-time updates.\n\n4. **Historical Patterns**: While specific historical data during the holiday season is unavailable, general trends suggest that Elon Musk is more likely to have a higher tweet frequency compared to the news organizations.\n\n### Final Probabilities\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately 13 days, as the period in question is December 21-30, 2024, and today is December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, if nothing changes, appears to be that Elon Musk will tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period. Historically, Elon Musk has been a prolific tweeter and tends to engage frequently on social media.\n\n(c) A scenario that could result in an unexpected outcome might involve a significant news event or a strategic change by The New York Times or The Economist that leads to a surge in their tweet frequency. For example, an unexpected global event or a major announcement from either publication could increase their tweet activity substantially. Additionally, if Elon Musk were to take a break from social media or reduce his activity for some reason, this could alter the expected outcome.\n\nGiven these considerations, my final probabilities for the options are:\n\n- Option A: Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65%\n- Option B: The NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\n- Option C: The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n### Analysis:\n\n(a) **Time Left Until the Outcome is Known**:\nThe period in question is from December 21 to December 30, 2024. Today is December 17, 2024, so there are 4 days remaining until the observation period begins and 13 days until the conclusion of that period.\n\n(b) **Status Quo Outcome**:\nBased on the recent tweeting activity and historical patterns, Elon Musk is the most likely to tweet the most during the specified period. He is known for frequent and spontaneous tweeting, often engaging with current events or discussions. The New York Times and The Economist tend to have more structured and scheduled tweeting patterns focused on news and analysis, which may not match Musk's volume.\n\n(c) **Scenario for an Unexpected Outcome**:\nAn unexpected outcome could occur if a major news event happens, prompting The New York Times or The Economist to significantly increase their tweet volume to cover the event. Additionally, if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media or is occupied with other commitments, his tweet frequency could decrease, allowing one of the publications to surpass him in tweet volume.\n\n### Rationale:\n\n1. **Elon Musk (@elonmusk)**:\n- Known for frequent and spontaneous tweeting.\n- Recent activity suggests a high likelihood of continued frequent tweeting.\n- Personal engagement and the potential for ongoing discussions make him the most likely to tweet the most.\n\n2. **The New York Times (@nytimes)**:\n- Typically maintains a steady stream of tweets focused on news updates.\n- Recent engagement metrics are low, indicating potentially lower volume.\n- Unless there is major news, they are less likely to surpass Musk.\n\n3. **The Economist (@TheEconomist)**:\n- Generally tweets regularly but lacks specific data on recent frequency.\n- Their social media strategy suggests a possible increase in output, but it may not be enough to surpass Musk or The New York Times without a significant news event.\n\nGiven these considerations, the status quo outcome seems likely, with Elon Musk tweeting the most. However, due to the potential for unexpected events or changes in behavior, it is prudent to allocate some probability to the other options.\n\n### Final Probabilities:\n\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) There are 4 days left until the 10-day period from December 21 to December 30, 2024, begins. The outcome will be known shortly after December 30, 2024, when the data from Social Blade is accessed.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, based on historical and recent tweeting patterns, indicates that Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will likely tweet more than The New York Times (@nytimes) and The Economist (@TheEconomist). Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-volume tweeting, often influenced by current events, particularly those of a political nature.\n\n(c) An unexpected outcome could occur if The New York Times or The Economist significantly increases their tweeting activity during this period due to a major news event or strategic social media campaign. For example, if a significant global event occurs that requires extensive coverage, both media outlets might ramp up their tweeting frequency to provide real-time updates and analyses. Alternatively, a technical issue or decision by Elon Musk to take a break from social media could reduce his tweeting frequency unexpectedly.\n\nConsidering these factors, the following probabilities are assigned:\n\nOption_A: Probability_A = 0.70 (Elon Musk: @elonmusk)\nOption_B: Probability_B = 0.20 (The NY Times: @nytimes)\nOption_C: Probability_C = 0.10 (The Economist: @TheEconomist)\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) There are 4 days left until the 10-day period begins, and an additional 10 days until the period ends, so a total of 14 days until the outcome is known.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, based on historical patterns and recent activity, is that Elon Musk will send out more tweets than The New York Times and The Economist. Musk is known for his frequent tweeting, often multiple times a day, and his engagement tends to spike around significant events. The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns.\n\n(c) An unexpected outcome could occur if there is a significant news event or development that causes The New York Times or The Economist to increase their tweeting activity substantially. For example, a major global event or a significant development in their respective industries might prompt these outlets to tweet more frequently to provide continuous updates and analysis.\n\nTaking all of this into account, I will assign probabilities as follows:\n\nElon Musk: 70% - Given his historical tweeting behavior and the lack of any specific evidence suggesting a change, he is the most likely to tweet the most during the period.\n\nThe NY Times: 20% - As a major news outlet, there's a chance they could ramp up their activity if there are significant news events, although this is less likely than Elon Musk's high activity.\n\nThe Economist: 10% - Their tweeting pattern is generally less frequent than the other two, and without specific events to suggest increased activity, they are the least likely to tweet the most.\n\nFinal probabilities:\nElon Musk: @elonmusk: 70%\nThe NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\nThe Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** The outcome will be known after the 10-day period from December 21 to December 30, 2024, which is in approximately 13 days from today, December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) **Status quo outcome if nothing changed:** Historically, Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-volume tweeting habits. Given his recent involvement in political events and the general pattern of his social media activity, it is likely that he will continue this trend. The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns compared to Musk. Therefore, based on the status quo, Elon Musk is expected to tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) **Scenario that results in an unexpected outcome:** An unexpected outcome could occur if there is a major news event or breaking story that significantly affects The New York Times or The Economist. For instance, if there is a major political or global event that requires constant updates and coverage, these media organizations might increase their tweeting frequency to provide real-time news updates. Additionally, technical issues, policy changes on X, or a decision by Musk to take a break from social media could reduce his tweeting frequency, leading to an unexpected outcome where The New York Times or The Economist tweets more.\n\n**Final probabilities:**\nElon Musk: @elonmusk: 65%\nThe NY Times: @nytimes: 25%\nThe Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known: Since today is December 17, 2024, the outcome will be known after December 30, 2024, when the tweet counts for the 10-day period from December 21-30 are accessible via Social Blade.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome if nothing changed: Historically, Elon Musk is known for his high volume of tweets, often tweeting multiple times a day. Given the absence of any significant changes to his tweeting habits or external factors that might reduce his activity, the status quo outcome would be that Elon Musk tweets more frequently than The New York Times or The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) A description of a scenario that results in an unexpected outcome: An unexpected outcome could occur if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media or reduce his tweeting frequency during the holiday season for personal reasons or due to unforeseen circumstances. At the same time, The New York Times or The Economist might increase their tweeting activity significantly due to major news events or a strategic push for more engagement, leading them to surpass Elon Musk's tweet count.\n\nRationale:\n1. Historically, Elon Musk's tweeting activity is high and often surpasses that of media organizations like The New York Times and The Economist, who generally have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns.\n2. The absence of specific plans from The New York Times or The Economist to significantly increase their tweet volume during the specified period supports the likelihood of the status quo outcome.\n3. While unexpected events could alter this pattern, such as a major news story requiring extensive coverage or a change in Musk's tweeting behavior, these are less likely scenarios.\n\nFinal probabilities:\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome of the question is known is approximately 13 days, as the tweets from December 21 to December 30, 2024, will be summed and reported by Social Blade shortly thereafter.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, if nothing changed, would likely be that Elon Musk tweets the most among the three options. Historically, Musk has been known for his frequent and high-engagement tweeting activity, often outpacing more structured and less frequent posts from media outlets like The New York Times and The Economist.\n\n(c) An unexpected scenario could involve a significant global or political event that drastically increases the tweeting activity of The New York Times or The Economist. For instance, a major international crisis or breaking news story could lead these organizations to ramp up their tweeting frequency to provide continuous updates. Alternatively, if Musk were to take a hiatus from social media for personal reasons or due to business obligations, this could also alter the expected outcome.\n\nGiven the information, my rationale is that Elon Musk's tweeting habits are typically robust and frequent, especially given his involvement in various high-profile activities and his tendency to engage with controversial topics. While The New York Times and The Economist also tweet regularly, they do so at a more moderated pace. However, I will allow for some probability that unexpected events could lead to a shift in tweeting behavior for the media outlets.\n\nFinal probabilities:\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is 13 days, as the period of interest is from December 21 to December 30, 2024, and today is December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome if nothing changed would likely be that Elon Musk (@elonmusk) sends out the most tweets during the specified period. This conclusion is drawn from his recent pattern of frequent tweeting and high engagement compared to The New York Times (@nytimes) and The Economist (@TheEconomist). Elon Musk is known for being a highly active and unpredictable user on X (formerly Twitter), often tweeting multiple times per day.\n\n(c) A scenario that could result in an unexpected outcome might be a significant news event or series of events that require extensive coverage by The New York Times or The Economist, thereby increasing their tweet frequencies significantly. For instance, a major global political event, economic crisis, or other breaking news could prompt these media organizations to increase their output on social media to provide timely updates and analyses. Additionally, if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media during the holidays or if he is occupied with other engagements, his tweet frequency might decrease unexpectedly.\n\nGiven these considerations and the tendency for the world to change slowly, I will assign probabilities that reflect the current status quo while accounting for the possibility of unexpected events:\n\nElon Musk: @elonmusk: 0.60\nThe NY Times: @nytimes: 0.30\nThe Economist: @TheEconomist: 0.10\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome is known is 13 days, as the period in question is from December 21 to December 30, 2024, and today is December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, if nothing changed, is that Elon Musk will send out more tweets than The New York Times and The Economist. This is based on recent tweet patterns indicating that Elon Musk is more active on Twitter compared to The New York Times, which has shown less frequent and less engaging activity. There is no specific data for The Economist, but it is implied that their tweet frequency is consistent but likely lower than Musk's.\n\n(c) A scenario that results in an unexpected outcome could involve The New York Times or The Economist increasing their tweet frequency significantly during the specified period. This could occur if there is a major global event or breaking news that requires continuous updates, prompting the news organizations to tweet more frequently than usual. Additionally, Elon Musk could unexpectedly reduce his tweeting activity due to personal reasons or business commitments, which might make it less likely for him to maintain his usual high tweet volume.\n\nIn considering these points:\n\n1. **Elon Musk** has a history of being very active on Twitter and is known for his high engagement, especially after acquiring the platform. Given his unpredictable nature, he could either increase his activity unexpectedly or take a break, but the former is more consistent with his past behavior.\n\n2. **The New York Times** may have a steady stream of tweets, especially if there are significant news events, but the data suggests their tweet frequency is generally less than Musk's.\n\n3. **The Economist** tends to have a lower volume of tweets compared to a daily news outlet. Without specific data, it's reasonable to assume their activity won't surpass Musk's unless there is a major news event or strategic decision to increase their social media presence.\n\nFinal probabilities:\n\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is 13 days. On December 31, 2024, the tweet counts from December 21 to December 30 will be available for analysis, and the outcome will be determined based on the Social Blade data for each account.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome if nothing changed would be that Elon Musk (@elonmusk) sends out more tweets than The New York Times (@nytimes) and The Economist (@TheEconomist) in the 10-day period. This is based on his historical pattern of high tweet activity and engagement compared to the other two accounts.\n\n(c) A scenario that results in an unexpected outcome could be a major global news event that significantly increases the tweet frequency of The New York Times or The Economist. For example, if a major political or economic event occurs during this period, these media organizations might ramp up their tweeting to provide continuous updates and analyses, potentially surpassing Elon Musk's tweet count.\n\nConsidering the historical patterns and typical behavior of each account, here is the rationale for the probabilities:\n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Known for his high activity on Twitter and personal engagement, Musk frequently tweets on a variety of topics, including his businesses and personal interests. Even though it is the holiday season, his pattern of regular tweeting suggests a high probability of him maintaining this activity level. Additionally, there are no specific indications that he plans to reduce his tweet frequency during this period.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: As a major news outlet, The New York Times maintains a steady presence on Twitter. Their tweet frequency is generally higher than that of The Economist, but typically lower than Musk's. Without any anticipated events that might drastically change their tweet volume, they are less likely to surpass Musk in tweet count during this period.\n\n3. **The Economist**: While The Economist is active on Twitter, their tweet frequency is generally lower than that of The New York Times and Elon Musk. They focus on in-depth analysis and are less likely to post as frequently during the holiday season unless there are significant events to cover.\n\nGiven these considerations, here are the final probabilities for each option:\n\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 1.571872499999999, + "minutes_taken": 1.5952050646146139, + "forecast_info": [], + "prediction": { + "predicted_options": [ + { + "option_name": "The NY Times: @nytimes", + "probability": 0.25 + }, + { + "option_name": "The Economist: @TheEconomist", + "probability": 0.1 + }, + { + "option_name": "Elon Musk: @elonmusk", + "probability": 0.65 + } + ] + } + } + ] + }, + { + "name": "Benchmark for TemplateBot", + "description": "This benchmark ran the TemplateBot bot on 2 questions.", + "timestamp": "2024-12-21T00:05:58.953367", + "time_taken_in_minutes": null, + "total_cost": null, + "git_commit_hash": "ac40177", + "forecast_bot_config": { + "research_reports_per_question": "1", + "predictions_per_research_report": "1", + "use_research_summary_to_forecast": "False", + "publish_reports_to_metaculus": "False", + "folder_to_save_reports_to": "None", + "skip_previously_forecasted_questions": "False", + "skip_questions_that_error": "True" + }, + "forecast_reports": [ + { + "question": { + "question_text": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?", + "page_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20776", + "id_of_post": 20776, + "id_of_question": 20776, + "num_forecasters": 549, + "num_predictions": 1532, + "state": "open", + "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. 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Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia.\n\nWill this changing landscape at the state level influence federal policy? The Schedule I classification, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act, is reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification." + }, + "already_forecasted": false, + "community_prediction_at_access_time": 0.05 + }, + "explanation": "\n# SUMMARY\n*Question*: Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?\n*Final Prediction*: 20.0%\n*Total Cost*: $0.01\n*Time Spent*: 0.95 minutes\n\n\n## Report 1 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 20.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n**Rundown on the Potential Reclassification of Cannabis from Schedule I**\n\nAs of December 21, 2024, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has proposed a rule to reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA). This proposal, initiated in May 2024, follows directives from President Biden and recommendations from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)[1][3][5].\n\n**Key Points:**\n\n1. **Proposal Status:** The DEA issued a proposed rule in May 2024 to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III. The process is ongoing, with no established deadline for completion, and could take over a year[1][3].\n\n2. **Implications:** Reclassification to Schedule III acknowledges cannabis's medical utility and lower potential for abuse compared to Schedule I substances. This change could align federal laws with the majority of state laws, where 38 states allow cannabis for medical use, recreational purposes, or both[1][3].\n\n3. **Procedural Steps:** After considering all comments and inputs, the DEA will publish a final rule. The final rule will not go into effect for 30 days after publication, during which time it can be challenged in court[1].\n\n4. **Impact on the Cannabis Industry:** Reclassification could lead to transformative changes, including increased research opportunities and the ability for cannabis businesses to deduct ordinary business expenses for federal income taxes[1][3].\n\n5. **Legal Recreational Use:** Reclassification to Schedule III does not legalize recreational use at the federal level. Cannabis would still be a controlled substance, and retail stores operating in states where cannabis is legal for recreational purposes would remain illegal under federal law[3].\n\n**Resolution of the Question:**\nGiven the current information and the ongoing process, it is uncertain whether cannabis will be officially removed from Schedule I before January 1, 2025. The proposal is in progress, but the final decision and potential legal challenges could extend beyond the end of 2024. Therefore, based on current information, the question does not resolve to Yes or No definitively at this time....\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n**Rundown on the Potential Reclassification of Cannabis from Schedule I**\n\nAs of December 21, 2024, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has proposed a rule to reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA). This proposal, initiated in May 2024, follows directives from President Biden and recommendations from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)[1][3][5].\n\n**Key Points:**\n\n1. **Proposal Status:** The DEA issued a proposed rule in May 2024 to reclassify cannabis to Schedule III. The process is ongoing, with no established deadline for completion, and could take over a year[1][3].\n\n2. **Implications:** Reclassification to Schedule III acknowledges cannabis's medical utility and lower potential for abuse compared to Schedule I substances. This change could align federal laws with the majority of state laws, where 38 states allow cannabis for medical use, recreational purposes, or both[1][3].\n\n3. **Procedural Steps:** After considering all comments and inputs, the DEA will publish a final rule. The final rule will not go into effect for 30 days after publication, during which time it can be challenged in court[1].\n\n4. **Impact on the Cannabis Industry:** Reclassification could lead to transformative changes, including increased research opportunities and the ability for cannabis businesses to deduct ordinary business expenses for federal income taxes[1][3].\n\n5. **Legal Recreational Use:** Reclassification to Schedule III does not legalize recreational use at the federal level. Cannabis would still be a controlled substance, and retail stores operating in states where cannabis is legal for recreational purposes would remain illegal under federal law[3].\n\n**Resolution of the Question:**\nGiven the current information and the ongoing process, it is uncertain whether cannabis will be officially removed from Schedule I before January 1, 2025. The proposal is in progress, but the final decision and potential legal challenges could extend beyond the end of 2024. Therefore, based on current information, the question does not resolve to Yes or No definitively at this time.\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately 10 days, as the deadline is January 1, 2025.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, if nothing changed, is that cannabis remains a Schedule I substance because the DEA's proposed rule reclassification process is ongoing and has not been finalized.\n\n(c) A scenario that results in a No outcome: The DEA does not complete the reclassification process before January 1, 2025. This could be due to the need for further review, the consideration of public comments, or potential legal challenges that delay the finalization of the rule.\n\n(d) A scenario that results in a Yes outcome: The DEA expedites the rulemaking process and publishes a final rule reclassifying cannabis to Schedule III before the end of 2024. This would require overcoming any procedural hurdles quickly, ensuring no substantial legal challenges arise within the 30-day waiting period after publication, and having all necessary approvals in place.\n\nGiven the proximity to the deadline and the typical pace of federal rulemaking processes, it seems unlikely that the reclassification will be finalized by January 1, 2025. The status quo outcome of cannabis remaining a Schedule I drug is more probable, considering the bureaucratic and legal complexities involved. Therefore, placing extra weight on the status quo outcome is prudent.\n\nProbability: 20%\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 0.013612500000000001, + "minutes_taken": 0.9513131260871888, + "prediction": 0.2 + }, + { + "question": { + "question_text": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", + "page_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30476", + "id_of_post": 30476, + "id_of_question": 30269, + "num_forecasters": 82, + "num_predictions": 256, + "state": "open", + "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", + "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. If such reports indicate that a ceasefire remains in effect, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If the latest reports indicate that a ceasefire is no longer effective as of the resolution date, this question will resolve as **No**. If it is unclear, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", + "background_info": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. 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In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.\n\nOn November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal." + }, + "already_forecasted": true, + "community_prediction_at_access_time": 0.89 + }, + "explanation": "\n# SUMMARY\n*Question*: Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?\n*Final Prediction*: 70.0%\n*Total Cost*: $0.01\n*Time Spent*: 0.95 minutes\n\n\n## Report 1 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: 70.0%\n\n\n### Research Summary\n**Rundown of Relevant News:**\n\n- **Current Status:** A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was agreed upon on November 27, 2024. However, both sides have accused each other of violating the ceasefire, with Israel conducting airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah firing projectiles as a warning over alleged Israeli truce violations[1][3][5].\n\n- **Violations:** Israel has been accused of violating the ceasefire multiple times, including launching airstrikes and demolishing homes near the border. Lebanon's parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, claimed Israel violated the truce more than 50 times in recent days[1][3].\n\n- **International Response:** The U.S. and France, which helped broker the truce, have downplayed the significance of Israeli strikes. The White House national security spokesman, John Kirby, stated that the ceasefire is largely holding, despite acknowledging some violations[1].\n\n- **Ceasefire Terms:** The agreement requires Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters and infrastructure from southern Lebanon within 60 days, while Israeli troops are to withdraw to their side of the border. However, the monitoring committee tasked with enforcing the ceasefire has not yet begun its work effectively[3][5].\n\n- **Future Prospects:** The survival of the ceasefire is uncertain, with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatening to act strongly if the truce collapses, including not differentiating between Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon[1][3].\n\n**Resolution Based on Current Information:**\n\nGiven the ongoing violations and tensions, the ceasefire's status on January 1, 2025, is uncertain. However, as of the current date (December 21, 2024), the ceasefire technically remains in effect, albeit fragile and frequently violated. Therefore, based on the latest reports, the question would currently lean towards resolving as **Yes**, but with significant uncertainty due to the ongoing breaches and threats from both sides. The final resolution would depend on the situation as of January 1, 2025, and the judgment of credible sources at that time....\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n**Rundown of Relevant News:**\n\n- **Current Status:** A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was agreed upon on November 27, 2024. However, both sides have accused each other of violating the ceasefire, with Israel conducting airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah firing projectiles as a warning over alleged Israeli truce violations[1][3][5].\n\n- **Violations:** Israel has been accused of violating the ceasefire multiple times, including launching airstrikes and demolishing homes near the border. Lebanon's parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, claimed Israel violated the truce more than 50 times in recent days[1][3].\n\n- **International Response:** The U.S. and France, which helped broker the truce, have downplayed the significance of Israeli strikes. The White House national security spokesman, John Kirby, stated that the ceasefire is largely holding, despite acknowledging some violations[1].\n\n- **Ceasefire Terms:** The agreement requires Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters and infrastructure from southern Lebanon within 60 days, while Israeli troops are to withdraw to their side of the border. However, the monitoring committee tasked with enforcing the ceasefire has not yet begun its work effectively[3][5].\n\n- **Future Prospects:** The survival of the ceasefire is uncertain, with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatening to act strongly if the truce collapses, including not differentiating between Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon[1][3].\n\n**Resolution Based on Current Information:**\n\nGiven the ongoing violations and tensions, the ceasefire's status on January 1, 2025, is uncertain. However, as of the current date (December 21, 2024), the ceasefire technically remains in effect, albeit fragile and frequently violated. Therefore, based on the latest reports, the question would currently lean towards resolving as **Yes**, but with significant uncertainty due to the ongoing breaches and threats from both sides. The final resolution would depend on the situation as of January 1, 2025, and the judgment of credible sources at that time.\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is 11 days, as the status on January 1, 2025, will determine the resolution.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome if nothing changed would be **Yes**, as the ceasefire is technically still in effect despite frequent violations and tensions. Credible sources currently acknowledge that the ceasefire is largely holding.\n\n(c) A scenario that results in a No outcome could involve a significant escalation in hostilities, such as a major military operation by either side, resulting in credible sources reporting that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. This could be triggered by a particularly severe incident, a political decision, or a breakdown in international mediation efforts.\n\n(d) A scenario that results in a Yes outcome would involve the continuation of the current situation, where despite violations and rhetoric, both sides refrain from major escalations, and credible sources continue to describe the ceasefire as holding. This could be supported by effective diplomatic interventions or internal strategic calculations by both parties to avoid further conflict.\n\nRationale: Given the current status quo where the ceasefire is technically still in effect, and considering the historical tendency for conflicts to stabilize or de-escalate over short time frames, the probability leans towards a Yes outcome. However, the situation is fragile, and violations could escalate, introducing uncertainty. Yet, with only 11 days remaining, drastic changes are less likely unless a significant catalyst occurs.\n\nProbability: 70%\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 0.0149375, + "minutes_taken": 0.9513065457344055, + "prediction": 0.7 + }, + { + "question": { + "question_text": "How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?", + "page_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30927", + "id_of_post": 30927, + "id_of_question": 30659, + "num_forecasters": 11, + "num_predictions": 155, + "state": "open", + "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the amount of the gross domestic box office revenue for the movie *A Complete Unknown* according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11563598/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) for the period from December 25, 2024 through December 29, 2024 (inclusive).", + "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.", + "background_info": "[A Complete Unknown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Complete_Unknown) is an upcoming biographical film about Bob Dylan by James Mangold, who also directed the 2005 biographical film *Walk the Line* about musician Johnny Cash. The movie stars Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet as Bob Dylan, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger and Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez. Christmas and the days following [are a popular time for movie attendance](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/this-is-the-most-important-week-of-the-year-for-movie-theater-owners.html) in the United States.\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n> Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n> Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n> Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", + "close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00", + "actual_resolution_time": null, + "scheduled_resolution_time": "2024-12-30T22:00:00", + "date_accessed": "2024-12-17T15:05:53.552188", + "api_json": { + "id": 30927, + "title": "How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?", + "url_title": "What will be the domestic earnings of A Complete Unknown?", + "slug": "what-will-be-the-domestic-earnings-of-a-complete-unknown", + "author_id": 115975, + "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", + "coauthors": [], + "projects": { + "category": [ + { + "id": 3696, + "name": "Sports & Entertainment", + "slug": "sports-entertainment", + "description": "Sports & Entertainment", + "type": "category" + } + ], + "question_series": [ + { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + ], + "default_project": { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + }, + "created_at": "2024-12-11T02:59:42.128343Z", + "published_at": "2024-12-14T14:21:47.736273Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-17T14:27:43.411302Z", + "curation_status": "approved", + "comment_count": 0, + "status": "open", + "resolved": false, + "actual_close_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T22:00:00Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "nr_forecasters": 11, + "question": { + "id": 30659, + "title": "How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?", + "description": "[A Complete Unknown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Complete_Unknown) is an upcoming biographical film about Bob Dylan by James Mangold, who also directed the 2005 biographical film *Walk the Line* about musician Johnny Cash. The movie stars Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet as Bob Dylan, Edward Norton as Pete Seeger and Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez. Christmas and the days following [are a popular time for movie attendance](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/this-is-the-most-important-week-of-the-year-for-movie-theater-owners.html) in the United States.\n\nBox Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) \"domestic\" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):\n\n> Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.\n\n> Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the \"rentals\") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.\n\n> Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.", + "created_at": "2024-12-11T02:59:42.128692Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T22:00:00Z", + "actual_resolve_time": null, + "resolution_set_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "actual_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "type": "numeric", + "options": [], + "group_variable": "", + "status": "open", + "possibilities": null, + "resolution": null, + "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, + "question_weight": 1.0, + "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the amount of the gross domestic box office revenue for the movie *A Complete Unknown* according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11563598/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) for the period from December 25, 2024 through December 29, 2024 (inclusive).", + "fine_print": "If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. 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"explanation": "\n# SUMMARY\n*Question*: How much will A Complete Unknown earn in domestic gross earnings during the 5-day period from its Christmas 2024 opening through Sunday December 29, 2024?\n*Final Prediction*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 50.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 87.14% chance of value below 40.0\n- 92.32% chance of value below 55.0\n- 95.00% chance of value below 70.0\n\n*Total Cost*: $1.66\n*Time Spent*: 1.6 minutes\n\n\n## Report 1 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 9.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 18.0\n\n*Forecaster 2*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 16.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 18.0\n\n*Forecaster 3*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 8.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 12.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 30.0\n\n*Forecaster 4*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 9.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 12.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 18.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 22.0\n\n*Forecaster 5*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 5.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 7.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 18.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 22.0\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent trends in domestic box office earnings during the Christmas period show strong performances for films released at this time, with notable successes in 2023. \"The Color Purple\" achieved significant earnings, with $18 million on its opening day, marking it as the biggest Christmas Day opening since 2009. Other films like \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Ferrari\" also performed well, highlighting the potential for significant earnings during the Christmas period due to increased moviegoing activity driven by holiday leisure time and family gatherings [Q1].\n\nJames Mangold, the director of *A Complete Unknown*, has a strong track record with films like *Walk the Line* and *Logan*, which have performed exceptionally well at the box office. This suggests that his upcoming film could perform well during its opening period, especially given the holiday release timing, which often boosts box office numbers [Q2]. Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, starring in the film, has shown strong box office draw with recent successes like \"Wonka,\" indicating potential positive influence on the film's earnings [Q3].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet have shown the potential to gross over $10 million in their opening 5-day period, as evidenced by \"Wonka\" grossing $39 million in its opening weekend [B3].\n- Movies with strong marketing campaigns often achieve significant box office earnings during the Christmas 5-day opening period, with a potential to earn approximately $20 million more than similar movies released at other times of the year [B4].\n- Movies opening on Christmas Day frequently achieve more than $5 million in domestic gross earnings over their first 5-day period, as seen with \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Migration\" [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- James Mangold's strong track record with successful films suggests potential for *A Complete Unknown* to perform well, especially with the holiday release timing [Q2].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent box office success with \"Wonka\" indicates a strong draw that could positively impact the film's earnings [Q3].\n- The Christmas period is associated with increased moviegoing activity, providing a favorable environment for box office success [Q1].\n\n#### Cons\n- Specific marketing strategies and promotional efforts for *A Complete Unknown* are not detailed, which could impact its visibility and box office performance [Q4].\n- The competitive landscape for films releasing in late December 2024 is not fully detailed, which could affect the film's earnings if major blockbusters are released simultaneously [Q5].\n\n\n## Report 2 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 35.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 45.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 65.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 75.0\n\n*Forecaster 2*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 35.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 45.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 65.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 75.0\n\n*Forecaster 3*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 20.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 30.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 50.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 60.0\n\n*Forecaster 4*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 18.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 24.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 32.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 50.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 60.0\n\n*Forecaster 5*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 20.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 30.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 40.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 60.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 70.0\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nThe research report explores the potential domestic box office earnings for the film \"A Complete Unknown\" during its 5-day opening period from December 25 to December 29, 2024. Directed by James Mangold, known for successful biographical films like \"Walk the Line,\" the film stars Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet as Bob Dylan. Historical data suggests Mangold's films can perform well, with \"Walk the Line\" grossing approximately $119.5 million domestically. However, specific projections for \"A Complete Unknown\" are not available, indicating a need for further analysis from industry sources [Q1, Q2].\n\nFactors influencing the film's performance include the Christmas release period, which traditionally sees high movie attendance, and the film's marketing strategy. The competition from streaming services, which have gained significant viewership, could impact box office earnings. Promotional efforts highlight the film's focus on Bob Dylan's cultural impact and Chalamet's musical performances, potentially boosting audience interest [Q3, Q4].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- James Mangold's \"Logan\" (2017) opened with approximately $88.4 million, and \"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019) with about $31 million domestically [B1].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent film \"Wonka\" projected to earn $35-$40 million in its opening weekend [B3].\n- Films about musicians like \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" and \"A Star is Born\" grossed $51 million and $42 million, respectively, in their opening weekends, suggesting $75 million in a 5-day run is rare [B4].\n\n#### Pros\n- James Mangold's track record with successful biographical films suggests potential for strong box office performance [Q1].\n- The Christmas release period is historically popular for movie attendance, which could boost earnings [Q3].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's involvement and musical performances may attract his fanbase and Bob Dylan enthusiasts [Q4].\n\n#### Cons\n- Increased competition from streaming services, which have captured a significant share of viewership, could negatively impact box office performance [Q3].\n- Lack of specific box office projections for \"A Complete Unknown\" creates uncertainty in forecasting its earnings [Q2].\n\n\n## Report 3 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 45.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 55.0\n\n*Forecaster 2*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 20.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 30.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 35.0\n\n*Forecaster 3*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 22.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 35.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 42.0\n\n*Forecaster 4*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 22.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 40.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 50.0\n\n*Forecaster 5*: Probability distribution:\n- 10.00% chance of value below 8.0\n- 20.00% chance of value below 10.0\n- 40.00% chance of value below 15.0\n- 80.00% chance of value below 25.0\n- 90.00% chance of value below 30.0\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nThe research report highlights that biographical films, such as *A Complete Unknown*, typically rely on critical acclaim and word-of-mouth for box office success, often having lower marketing budgets compared to blockbuster genres. While specific average earnings for biographical films during opening weekends are not provided, these films generally do not achieve the high opening numbers seen in action or superhero films but can perform well over time due to strong narratives and critical reception [Q1]. Recent box office trends during the Christmas period show mixed performances, with some films exceeding expectations and others struggling, indicating that while the holiday season can be lucrative, it also presents challenges due to competition and audience preferences [Q2].\n\nThe film *A Complete Unknown* is generating significant social media buzz and positive critical reception, with strong praise for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance as Bob Dylan, which could positively influence its box office performance during the opening weekend [Q3]. Chalamet's deep commitment to his role, including extensive preparation and learning to play Dylan's songs, is likely to attract both his fans and Dylan's, potentially increasing the film's box office performance [Q4]. The film has received largely positive reviews, with particular praise for Chalamet's portrayal, although some reviews note it may not offer new insights into Dylan's life [Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- James Mangold has directed at least three films that grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends, indicating a strong track record for significant box office openings [B3].\n- Historical data on films released on Christmas Day achieving more than $15 million over the five-day period is not comprehensive, but examples like \"Avatar: The Way of Water\" show that high-grossing films can significantly exceed this mark [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- Significant social media buzz and positive critical reception for *A Complete Unknown*, with strong praise for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance, could boost box office performance [Q3].\n- Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's deep commitment and extensive preparation for his role as Bob Dylan are likely to attract both his fans and Dylan's, potentially increasing the film's box office performance [Q4].\n- Bob Dylan's endorsement of the film and confidence in Chalamet's portrayal could positively influence audience interest and box office performance [Q5].\n\n#### Cons\n- Biographical films generally do not achieve high opening weekend numbers compared to blockbuster genres, relying more on critical acclaim and word-of-mouth for success [Q1].\n- The global box office has not fully rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, which could impact the performance of films released during the Christmas period [Q2].\n- Some reviews note that while the film is well-made, it may not offer new insights into Dylan's life, which could affect its appeal to certain audiences [Q5].\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n## R1: Q1: What are the recent trends in domestic box office earnings during the Christmas period in previous years?\nAnswer:\nRecent trends in domestic box office earnings during the Christmas period indicate a strong performance for films released during this time, with several notable successes in 2023. \"The Color Purple\" achieved the second-largest unadjusted opening day gross ever for a Christmas Day release, earning $18 million on its opening day, making it the biggest Christmas Day opening since 2009's \"Sherlock Holmes\" \\[[9](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/26/1221705314/the-color-purple-box-office#:~:text=The%20film%20adaptation%20of%20the,Aquaman%20and%20the%20Lost%20Kingdom.)\\]. This suggests a robust market for films with broad appeal and strong marketing strategies during the holiday season.\n\nAdditionally, other films like \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Ferrari\" also performed well, with opening day earnings of $5.71 million and $2.88 million, respectively, benefiting from their Christmas Day releases \\[[1](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]. These figures highlight the potential for significant earnings during the Christmas period, especially for films that can attract diverse audiences. The overall trend suggests that films released during this period can capitalize on increased moviegoing activity, driven by holiday leisure time and family gatherings.\n\n\n## R1: Q2: What has James Mangold's track record been in terms of box office performance for his previous films, such as *Walk the Line*?\nAnswer:\nJames Mangold has a notable track record in terms of box office performance. One of his most successful films, *Walk the Line* (2005), grossed over $186 million worldwide, with a significant portion coming from domestic earnings. Mangold's other films, such as *Logan* (2017), performed exceptionally well, grossing over $619 million globally, with a strong domestic showing. His ability to direct films that resonate with both critics and audiences suggests that his upcoming film, *A Complete Unknown*, could perform well during its opening period, especially given the holiday release timing which often boosts box office numbers. However, specific data on Mangold's box office performance was not found in the search results provided.\n\n\n## R1: Q3: What are the current popularity and box office draw of the main cast, including Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, Edward Norton, and Monica Barbaro?\nAnswer:\nTimoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent performance in \"Wonka\" has been a significant box office success, with the film already generating nearly $150 million in returns worldwide. This indicates a strong box office draw for Chalamet, as the film continues to perform well internationally and is expected to have a positive domestic performance \\[[9](https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/wonka-box-office-timothee-chalamet-starrer-is-a-clean-success-with-almost-150-million-returns-already/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20despite%20being,which%20was%20an%20impressive%20start.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/wonka-box-office-timothee-chalamet-starrer-is-a-clean-success-with-almost-150-million-returns-already/#:~:text=Among%20the%20selected%20successful%20films%2C,and%20others%20in%20key%20roles.)\\]. \n\nEdward Norton, while not currently highlighted in recent box office hits, has a history of being involved in successful films, though specific recent data on his box office draw is not available in the provided sources. Monica Barbaro's current box office draw is not detailed in the search results, suggesting that her impact might be less significant compared to Chalamet's current popularity. Overall, Chalamet's recent success with \"Wonka\" is likely to be the most influential factor in the film's potential earnings during its opening period.\n\n\n## R1: Q4: What marketing strategies and promotional efforts are being employed for *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release?\nAnswer:\nI couldn't find any specific information about the marketing strategies and promotional efforts for *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release. The search results did not provide any relevant details about this particular film. It might be beneficial to check official movie websites, social media channels, or entertainment news outlets for the latest updates on promotional activities related to the film.\n\n\n## R1: Q5: What are the competing films releasing around the same time as *A Complete Unknown*, and how might they impact its box office performance?\nAnswer:\nTo assess the potential impact on the box office performance of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening period from December 25 to December 29, 2024, it's important to consider the competition from other films releasing around the same time. However, the search results provided do not include specific information about films releasing in December 2024. The results mainly discuss films released earlier in 2024, such as *Saturday Night* (October 2024) \\[[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_(2024_film)#:~:text=Set%20in%201975%2C%20its%20plot,of%20Saturday%20Night%20Live%20.)\\], *The Beekeeper* (January 2024) \\[[3](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15314262/#:~:text=Cast%20%26amp%3B%20crew%20User%20reviews,%2D%20both%20action%20and%20acting.)\\], and *The Taste of Things* (2023) \\[[4](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt19760052/#:~:text=They%20have%20two%20assistants%2C%20who,every%20step%20of%20the%20way.)\\].\n\nTo accurately evaluate the competitive landscape, further research is needed to identify films scheduled for release in late December 2024. This would typically include major holiday releases, which often feature blockbuster films or family-oriented movies that could significantly impact the box office performance of *A Complete Unknown*. Additionally, understanding the genre and target audience of these competing films would provide more insight into how they might affect the earnings of *A Complete Unknown*.\n\n\n\n## R1: B1: How often have movies directed by James Mangold released during the Christmas period grossed over $10 million in their opening 5-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the box office performance of movies directed by James Mangold, particularly those released during the Christmas period. Therefore, I cannot directly answer the question based on the given data. However, I can provide some general guidance on how to find this information:\n\n1. **Research James Mangold's Filmography**: Look for films directed by James Mangold and identify which ones were released during the Christmas period. This can be done by checking databases like IMDb or Box Office Mojo.\n\n2. **Box Office Performance**: Once you have identified the films, check their box office performance during the opening 5-day period. Websites like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers can provide detailed box office data.\n\n3. **Historical Context**: Consider the historical box office trends for films released during the Christmas period, as this can provide context for how Mangold's films might perform.\n\nIf you need further assistance, I recommend using these steps to gather the necessary data from reliable sources.\n\n\n## R1: B2: How often have biographical films about musicians grossed over $5 million domestically in their opening 5-day period during the Christmas season?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic gross earnings of biographical films about musicians during the Christmas season. However, based on general industry knowledge, biographical films about musicians can vary significantly in their box office performance. For instance, films like \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" and \"Rocketman\" have performed well, but their success is not necessarily tied to the Christmas season. \n\nTo provide a more accurate answer, historical data on similar films released during the Christmas period would be needed. Unfortunately, the search results do not include such data. For a more precise forecast, it would be beneficial to look at box office databases like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers for historical earnings of similar films released during the Christmas season.\n\n\n## R1: B3: How often have movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet grossed over $10 million in their opening 5-day period?\nAnswer:\nTimoth\u00e9e Chalamet's movies have had varied success in terms of opening 5-day domestic gross earnings. Notably, his film \"Wonka\" debuted with a strong performance, grossing $39 million in its opening weekend \\[[4](https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/box-office-timothee-chalamet-wonka-wins-weekend-1235842643/#:~:text=It%20brought%20in%20%2431%2C198%20per,set%20to%20begin%20in%20January.)\\]. This indicates that movies starring Chalamet can indeed surpass the $10 million mark in their opening 5-day period. However, specific data on how many of his films have consistently achieved this threshold is not detailed in the provided sources. For a more comprehensive analysis, one would need to examine the box office performance of each of his films individually. Nonetheless, the success of \"Wonka\" suggests a positive trend for Chalamet's box office draw.\n\n\n## R1: B4: How often have movies with a strong marketing campaign achieved significant box office earnings over the Christmas 5-day opening period?\nAnswer:\nMovies with strong marketing campaigns often achieve significant box office earnings during the Christmas 5-day opening period. The first week of a movie's release is crucial, as it sets the tone for its overall performance. For every dollar made during the first four days of release, a movie is likely to make $2.7 in its entire run, highlighting the importance of a strong opening weekend and marketing blitz \\[[11](https://oscarpredictor.github.io/boxoffice.html#:~:text=The%20first%20week%20is%20extremely,how%20good%20the%20movie%20is.)\\]. Additionally, movies released in December can earn approximately $20 million more than similar movies released at other times of the year, due to the increased holiday demand and audience availability \\[[7](https://oscarpredictor.github.io/boxoffice.html#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20a%20movie%20releasing,their%20PG%2D13%20or%20R%2Drated%20counterparts.)\\]. \n\nThe Christmas period, particularly between Christmas and New Year's Day, sees high audience turnout, which can significantly boost box office earnings \\[[2](https://hsxsanity.blogspot.com/2012/12/what-can-i-expect-when-christmas-falls.html#:~:text=One%20reason%20for%20this%20is,an%20overview%20of%20Christmas%20legs.)\\]. This period is often associated with increased demand for family-friendly and general audience movies, which tend to perform better at the box office \\[[7](https://oscarpredictor.github.io/boxoffice.html#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20a%20movie%20releasing,their%20PG%2D13%20or%20R%2Drated%20counterparts.)\\]. Therefore, a well-marketed movie released during this time is likely to capitalize on these favorable conditions and achieve substantial earnings.\n\n\n## R1: B5: How often do movies that open on Christmas Day achieve more than $5 million in domestic gross earnings over their first 5-day period?\nAnswer:\nBased on the data from recent Christmas Day releases, it appears that movies opening on Christmas Day frequently achieve more than $5 million in domestic gross earnings over their first 5-day period. For instance, \"The Boys in the Boat\" opened on Christmas Day and earned $5.71 million on its opening day alone, which includes preview grosses \\[[1](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]\\[[2](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]. Similarly, \"Migration\" earned $5.36 million on Christmas Monday and accumulated $17.81 million over the four-day frame \\[[3](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=The%20opening%20day%20audience%20for,Christmas%20Monday%20with%20%245.36%20million.)\\]\\[[9](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Critical%20reviews%20for%20the%20George,four%2Dday%20start%20of%20%2417.81%20million.)\\]. These examples suggest that achieving over $5 million in the first 5-day period is a common occurrence for films released on Christmas Day, especially when considering the boost from holiday audiences.\n\n\n\n## R2: Q1: What are the historical box office earnings for films directed by James Mangold, particularly biographical films like Walk the Line?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical box office earnings for films directed by James Mangold, particularly his biographical films like \"Walk the Line.\" However, I can provide some general information based on known data up to October 2023.\n\nJames Mangold is known for directing several successful films, including biographical ones. \"Walk the Line\" (2005), a biographical film about Johnny Cash, was a commercial success, grossing approximately $119.5 million domestically. Another notable film by Mangold is \"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019), which, while not strictly a biographical film, is based on real events and earned around $117.6 million domestically. These figures suggest that Mangold's biographical films have the potential to perform well at the box office, particularly if they resonate with audiences and receive positive critical reception.\n\nFor more precise and updated figures, I recommend checking reliable box office tracking websites like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers.\n\n\n## R2: Q2: What are the projected domestic box office earnings for A Complete Unknown during its opening weekend, according to industry analysts?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific information about the projected domestic box office earnings for \"A Complete Unknown\" during its opening weekend. The results primarily focus on other films and their box office performances, such as \"The Boys in the Boat,\" \"Ferrari,\" and \"Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom\" \\[[1](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]\\[[2](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]\\[[3](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Aquaman%20and%20the%20Lost%20Kingdom,film%20in%20China%20during%202023%29.)\\]. To obtain accurate projections for \"A Complete Unknown,\" it would be necessary to consult industry analysts or box office forecasting sources that specifically address this film.\n\n\n## R2: Q3: What factors could influence movie attendance during the Christmas period, specifically for films released on December 25th?\nAnswer:\nSeveral factors can influence movie attendance during the Christmas period, particularly for films released on December 25th. Historically, Christmas is a popular time for movie releases due to the holiday season, which often sees families and individuals seeking entertainment options. The success of a film during this period can be significantly impacted by its marketing strategy and the extent of its theatrical release. For instance, a strong marketing campaign and a wide theatrical release can drive audiences to theaters, as seen with Amazon's strategy for \"Red One,\" which included a theatrical release to boost awareness and viewership \\[[5](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/red-one-amazon-biggest-streaming-debut-1236088166/#:~:text=By%20comparison%2C%20Netflix%20and%20Disney%2B,One%20was%20released%20in%20theaters.)\\]\\[[8](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/17/business/media/streaming-movies-theaters.html#:~:text=But%20the%20industry%20has%20now,for%20all%20of%20The%20Times.)\\].\n\nAdditionally, the competition from other entertainment options, such as streaming services, can affect box office performance. Streaming platforms have been gaining a larger share of viewership, with streaming viewership increasing by 7.6% in November 2024, reaching a record share of 41.6% of TV viewership \\[[11](https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2024/tv-viewing-in-november-interval-reaches-highest-level-since-february-streaming-nabs-largest-share-of-tv-ever-in-the-gauge/#:~:text=Coverage%20of%20the%20presidential%20election,TV%20with%2041.6%25%20%28%2B1.1%20pt.%29.)\\]. This trend suggests that films released in theaters during the Christmas period may face stiff competition from streaming services, potentially impacting their domestic gross earnings.\n\n\n## R2: Q4: What recent statements have been made by the film's cast or director regarding its promotion and public expectations?\nAnswer:\nRecent statements regarding the promotion and public expectations for the film \"A Complete Unknown\" have been made by the film's director, James Mangold, and its cast. In a behind-the-scenes featurette, Mangold emphasized the film's focus on Bob Dylan's genius and the transformative power of his music, highlighting Dylan's pivotal moment when he embraced rock and roll, which was a significant cultural shift. This narrative is expected to resonate with audiences familiar with Dylan's impact on music history. Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, who plays Dylan, is noted for performing the music in the film, including singing, guitar, and harmonica, which could attract fans of both Dylan and Chalamet \\[[8](https://geektyrant.com/news/behind-the-scenes-featurette-for-james-mangolds-bob-dylan-biopic-a-complete-unknown#:~:text=Searchlight%20Pictures%20has%20released%20an,with%20singing%2C%20guitar%2C%20and%20harmonica.)\\]. \n\nThese promotional efforts, focusing on the film's historical and musical significance, as well as Chalamet's involvement, are likely to influence public expectations and potentially boost the film's box office performance during its opening period.\n\n\n## R2: Q5: What are the average domestic opening weekend earnings for films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet in recent years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific information on the average domestic opening weekend earnings for films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet in recent years. However, they do mention some of his recent projects, such as \"A Complete Unknown,\" a Bob Dylan biopic, which is noted for its quality but does not provide box office figures \\[[3](https://clutchpoints.com/a-complete-unknown-timothee-chalamet-bob-dylan-2024-movie-review#:~:text=Directed%20by%20James%20Mangold%20%2C,best%20way%20of%20telling%20it.)\\]\\[[10](https://clutchpoints.com/a-complete-unknown-timothee-chalamet-bob-dylan-2024-movie-review#:~:text=A%20good%20music%20biopic%20is,Rhapsody%20got%20any%20Oscars%20attention.)\\]. To accurately determine the average domestic opening weekend earnings for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's films, additional data from box office tracking sources like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers would be required. These platforms typically provide detailed financial performance data for films, including opening weekend earnings.\n\n\n\n## R2: B1: What have been the domestic box office earnings during the opening weekend for films directed by James Mangold over the last 10 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic box office earnings during the opening weekend for films directed by James Mangold over the last 10 years. To address the question, I will provide information based on known data up to October 2023:\n\n1. **\"Logan\" (2017)**: Directed by James Mangold, \"Logan\" opened to a domestic box office of approximately $88.4 million during its opening weekend [source: Box Office Mojo].\n2. **\"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019)**: This film, also directed by Mangold, earned about $31 million in its opening weekend in the domestic market [source: Box Office Mojo].\n3. **\"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny\" (2023)**: Although specific opening weekend figures are not available in the search results, it is known that this film was directed by Mangold and had a significant box office presence [source: Box Office Mojo].\n\nThese figures provide a historical context for the opening weekend performance of James Mangold's films, which could be useful in forecasting the potential earnings for \"A Complete Unknown\" during its opening period.\n\n\n## R2: B2: How often have biographical films released during the Christmas period grossed over $50 million domestically in their opening weekend in the past 10 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic gross earnings of biographical films released during the Christmas period over the past 10 years. Therefore, I cannot directly answer the question based on the given data. However, I can suggest a general approach to finding this information:\n\n1. **Box Office Databases**: Check databases like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers for historical box office data. These platforms often have detailed records of film earnings, including opening weekend grosses.\n\n2. **Industry Reports**: Look for industry reports or articles from reputable sources like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter, which may discuss trends in biographical film releases and their box office performance during the Christmas period.\n\n3. **Historical Analysis**: Analyze the performance of notable biographical films released around Christmas in the past decade, such as \"The Wolf of Wall Street\" (2013) or \"Vice\" (2018), to see if they grossed over $50 million in their opening weekends.\n\nBy following these steps, you can gather the necessary data to determine how often biographical films have achieved the specified box office milestone during the Christmas period.\n\n\n## R2: B3: What are the average domestic opening weekend earnings for films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet over the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nBased on the available information, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's recent film \"Wonka\" had a strong start at the box office, earning approximately $14.4 million from Thursday previews and Friday's full day of showings. It is projected to earn between $35-$40 million domestically by the end of its opening weekend \\[[12](https://www.tmz.com/2023/12/16/timothee-chalamet-wonka-strong-box-office-start-johnny-depp/#:~:text=The%20first%2Dday%20numbers%20are%20in,2000s%2C%20the%20most%20recent%20iteration.)\\]\\[[13](https://www.tmz.com/2023/12/16/timothee-chalamet-wonka-strong-box-office-start-johnny-depp/#:~:text=Between%20Thursday%20previews%20and%20Friday%27s,in%20its%20opening%20weekend%20domestically.)\\]. However, there is no specific data provided in the search results regarding the average domestic opening weekend earnings for all films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet over the last five years. \n\nTo provide a more comprehensive answer, additional data on his other films' opening weekend earnings would be necessary. However, the performance of \"Wonka\" can serve as a recent benchmark for his box office draw.\n\n\n## R2: B4: Over the past 10 years, how often have films about musicians grossed more than $75 million domestically during their opening 5-day run?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the domestic gross earnings of films about musicians during their opening 5-day run. However, based on general industry knowledge, films about musicians that have achieved significant box office success in recent years include \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" (2018) and \"A Star is Born\" (2018). \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" grossed approximately $51 million in its opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada, and \"A Star is Born\" grossed about $42 million in its opening weekend. These figures suggest that while films about musicians can perform well, surpassing $75 million in a 5-day opening run is relatively rare and typically requires exceptional circumstances, such as a highly popular subject or strong critical acclaim.\n\nFor a more precise analysis, it would be beneficial to consult box office databases like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers, which provide detailed financial performance data for films. This would allow for a more accurate assessment of how often films about musicians have exceeded $75 million in their opening 5-day run over the past decade.\n\n\n## R2: B5: How often have films released on December 25th exceeded their projected domestic box office earnings in the past 10 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often films released on December 25th have exceeded their projected domestic box office earnings in the past 10 years. However, there is a mention of films like \"The Boys in the Boat\" and \"Ferrari\" performing better than expected on their opening day, which was Christmas Day \\[[4](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]\\[[6](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]. This suggests that opening on Christmas can positively impact a film's initial box office performance, potentially leading to earnings that exceed projections. \n\nFor a more comprehensive analysis, it would be beneficial to look at historical box office data from sources like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers, focusing on films released on December 25th over the past decade. This would provide a clearer picture of the frequency with which these films have surpassed their projections.\n\n\n\n## R3: Q1: What is the historical average domestic gross earnings for biographical films during their opening weekends in the U.S.?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical average domestic gross earnings for biographical films during their opening weekends in the U.S. However, I can provide some general context based on industry trends and typical performance metrics for biographical films.\n\nBiographical films, often categorized alongside dramas, tend to rely heavily on critical acclaim and word-of-mouth for their box office success. They typically have lower marketing budgets compared to blockbuster genres, which can impact their opening weekend earnings \\[[8](https://stephenfollows.com/how-are-movie-advertising-budgets-spent/#:~:text=The%20inverse%20of%20this%20is,powerful%20way%20to%20scare%20people.)\\]. While specific average earnings for biographical films are not provided in the search results, it is known that these films generally do not achieve the high opening weekend numbers seen in action or superhero films, but they can perform well over time due to strong narratives and critical reception.\n\nFor a more precise figure, it would be beneficial to consult box office databases such as Box Office Mojo or The Numbers, which track detailed financial performance of films by genre.\n\n\n## R3: Q2: What have been the recent box office trends during the Christmas period in previous years?\nAnswer:\nRecent box office trends during the Christmas period have shown a mixed performance, with some films performing better than expected while others have struggled. For instance, in 2023, \"Aquaman 2\" had a relatively weak debut with $28 million over the Christmas weekend, despite being a major release \\[[9](https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/movies/2023/12/24/aquaman-2-christmas-weekend-box-office/72024936007/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot#:~:text=%22Aquaman%202%22%20was%20the%20final,spots%20in%20the%20top%20five.)\\]. In contrast, \"The Boys in the Boat\" exceeded expectations with a $5.71 million opening on Christmas Monday, benefiting from its Christmas Day release \\[[13](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\]. This suggests that while some films can capitalize on the holiday period, others may not meet expectations, possibly due to competition or audience preferences.\n\nAdditionally, the global box office has been recovering but remains below pre-pandemic levels. The North American market was projected to grow by 12% in 2023, reaching $8.6 billion, yet still 25% below the pre-pandemic average \\[[3](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/global-box-office-forecast-2023-2022-pandemic-1235283441/#:~:text=The%20North%20American%20market%20is,percent%20behind%20the%20pre%2Dpandemic%20average.)\\]. This indicates a gradual recovery, but the market has not fully rebounded to its previous highs, which could impact the performance of films released during the Christmas period.\n\n\n## R3: Q3: What are the current viewership trends and social media buzz around the film *A Complete Unknown*?\nAnswer:\nThe film *A Complete Unknown* is generating significant social media buzz and positive critical reception ahead of its release. Notably, a tweet from Searchlight Pictures highlights a five-star review from The Guardian, indicating strong critical acclaim \\[[5](https://x.com/searchlightpics/status/1868341480932171937#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2Fen%2Fprivacy%20Conversation%20searchlightpictures.com%2Fa%2Dcomplete%2Dunk%205%3A04%20PM,to%20the%20and%20%2C%20including)\\]. Additionally, there is considerable excitement around Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance, with discussions on social media suggesting he could receive his second Oscar nomination for this role \\[[12](https://twitter.com/GraceRandolph/status/1864117923129790847#:~:text=%23ACompleteUnknown%20is%20very%20impressive%20If,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This level of buzz and critical praise could positively influence the film's box office performance during its opening weekend. Furthermore, Chalamet's recent public appearances, such as a Q&A session at the Museum of Modern Art, are also contributing to the film's visibility and anticipation \\[[15](https://twitter.com/timotheeupdates/status/1868154935550116236#:~:text=Timoth%C3%A9e%20Chalamet%20photographed%20by%20a,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\].\n\n\n## R3: Q4: What have the lead actors, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet and Edward Norton, said about their roles in the film, and how might this affect audience interest?\nAnswer:\nTimoth\u00e9e Chalamet has expressed a deep commitment to his role as Bob Dylan in \"A Complete Unknown,\" which could significantly boost audience interest. Chalamet has been involved with the project since 2018 and has undertaken extensive preparation, including guitar lessons, working with a dialect coach, and retracing Dylan's steps through key locations like Minnesota, Chicago, and New York \\[[5](https://www.awardsdaily.com/2024/11/timothee-chalamet-talks-becoming-bob-dylan-in-lengthy-interview-with-zane-lowe/#:~:text=Never%20gonna%20be%20another.%20Not,This%20is%20a%20wonderful%20interview.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.awardsdaily.com/2024/11/timothee-chalamet-talks-becoming-bob-dylan-in-lengthy-interview-with-zane-lowe/#:~:text=Not%20like%20that.%20%E2%80%9CTimoth%C3%A9e%20Chalamet,This%20is%20a%20wonderful%20interview.)\\]. His dedication is further highlighted by his learning to play 30 Bob Dylan songs and working with a harmonica coach for five years \\[[9](https://www.teenvogue.com/story/timothee-chalamet-channels-bob-dyla-new-york-premiere?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dhtwitter&utm_content=null#:~:text=In%20a%20recent%20interview%20with,started%20in%20Hibbing%2C%20in%20Duluth.)\\]\\[[12](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/timothee-chalamet-gain-weight-bob-dylan-a-complete-unknown-1236058855/#:~:text=So%20for%20me%2C%20it%20was,the%20lead%2Dup%20to%20the%20film.)\\]. This level of immersion and authenticity in portraying Dylan is likely to attract both fans of Chalamet and Dylan, potentially increasing the film's box office performance.\n\nEdward Norton's comments on his role have not been found in the search results, but Chalamet's transformation and dedication to the role are likely to be a significant draw for audiences, especially those interested in biographical films and music history.\n\n\n## R3: Q5: What are the reviews and critical reception of *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release?\nAnswer:\nThe critical reception of *A Complete Unknown* leading up to its release has been largely positive, with particular praise for Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance as Bob Dylan. According to a review from Deadline, Chalamet delivers an \"astonishing and authentic\" portrayal, performing all the songs himself, which adds a layer of authenticity to the film \\[[1](https://deadline.com/2024/12/a-complete-unknown-review-timothee-chalamet-astonishes-young-bob-dylan-james-mangolds-thrilling-musical-drama-1236199254/#:~:text=Music%2C%20at%20least%20in%20this,me%20to%20be%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20says.)\\]. The film, directed by James Mangold, is noted for its thrilling recreation of a pivotal moment in music history, specifically Dylan's controversial electric performance at the 1965 Newport Folk Festival \\[[1](https://deadline.com/2024/12/a-complete-unknown-review-timothee-chalamet-astonishes-young-bob-dylan-james-mangolds-thrilling-musical-drama-1236199254/#:~:text=Music%2C%20at%20least%20in%20this,me%20to%20be%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20says.)\\]\\[[4](https://deadline.com/2024/12/a-complete-unknown-review-timothee-chalamet-astonishes-young-bob-dylan-james-mangolds-thrilling-musical-drama-1236199254/#:~:text=Here%20was%20the%20Woodstock%2Dstyle%20traditional,what%20fans%20want%20from%20him.)\\]. \n\nHowever, some reviews highlight that while the film is well-made, it may not offer new insights into Dylan's life. Empire Online describes it as a \"strikingly well-made musical drama\" with \"pitch-perfect performances,\" but notes that it might not provide a revelatory portrait of Dylan \\[[5](https://www.empireonline.com/movies/reviews/a-complete-unknown/#:~:text=But%20as%20conventional%20as%20it,why%20you%20should%20trust%20us)\\]\\[[14](https://www.empireonline.com/movies/reviews/a-complete-unknown/#:~:text=Anyone%20looking%20for%20a%20revelatory,why%20you%20should%20trust%20us)\\]. Additionally, Bob Dylan himself has endorsed the film, expressing confidence in Chalamet's portrayal, which could positively influence audience interest and box office performance \\[[11](https://www.loudersound.com/news/love-in-between-bob-dylan-and-timothee-chalamet-a-complete-unknown#:~:text=In%20what%20will%20be%20undoubtedly,be%20completely%20believable%20as%20me.)\\].\n\n\n\n## R3: B1: How often have biographical films about famous musicians released during Christmas week earned significant box office revenue in their opening weekends over the past 20 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about biographical films about famous musicians released during Christmas week over the past 20 years. However, based on general industry trends, biographical films about musicians can perform well if they resonate with audiences and have strong marketing campaigns. For example, films like \"Bohemian Rhapsody\" and \"Rocketman,\" though not released during Christmas, have shown that there is a significant audience for well-made biographical films about musicians. \n\nTo provide a more accurate forecast, it would be beneficial to look at historical box office data for similar films released during the holiday season, as well as consider factors such as the popularity of the musician being portrayed, the film's marketing strategy, and competition from other holiday releases. Unfortunately, the search results do not provide this specific data.\n\n\n## R3: B2: What is the average domestic gross earnings for movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet during their opening weekends?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the average domestic gross earnings for movies starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet during their opening weekends. To accurately answer the question, additional research outside of the provided results would be necessary. However, based on general industry knowledge, Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet has starred in several high-profile films, such as \"Dune\" and \"Little Women,\" which have had significant box office performances. For precise figures, consulting a comprehensive box office database like Box Office Mojo or The Numbers would be recommended.\n\n\n## R3: B3: How often have films directed by James Mangold grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends?\nAnswer:\nTo determine how often films directed by James Mangold have grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends, we can look at his filmography and their box office performances. James Mangold is known for directing several successful films. Notably, \"Logan\" (2017) opened with $88.4 million, \"Ford v Ferrari\" (2019) opened with $31 million, and \"The Wolverine\" (2013) opened with $53.1 million. These films all surpassed the $20 million mark during their opening weekends. Additionally, \"3:10 to Yuma\" (2007) opened with $14 million, which did not meet the $20 million threshold. \n\nBased on this information, at least three of Mangold's films have grossed more than $20 million during their opening weekends. This suggests a strong track record for Mangold in achieving significant box office openings, particularly with films that have strong commercial appeal.\n\n\n## R3: B4: Over the last decade, how often have movies with strong critical acclaim and social media buzz met or exceeded box office expectations during their opening weekend?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not directly address the question of how often movies with strong critical acclaim and social media buzz have met or exceeded box office expectations during their opening weekend over the last decade. However, I can provide some general insights based on industry trends and examples.\n\nHistorically, movies that receive strong critical acclaim and generate significant social media buzz often perform well at the box office, especially during their opening weekends. For instance, films like \"La La Land\" (2016) and \"Green Book\" (2018) received critical acclaim and had strong word-of-mouth, contributing to their box office success \\[[8](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3783958/#:~:text=See%20production%2C%20box%20office%20%26amp%3B,dream%20and%20fulfill%20your%20pursuit.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6966692/#:~:text=Videos%2033%20Best%20Picture%20Winners,appealing%20and%20it%20looked%20appetising.)\\]. However, there are exceptions, such as \"Babylon\" (2022), which despite having a strong cast and critical interest, did not meet box office expectations \\[[12](https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/12/babylon-movie-review-damien-chazelle/672560/#:~:text=Yes%2C%20he%20seems%20to%20be,%2C%20where%20he%20covers%20culture.)\\]\\[[13](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20221216-babylon-review-a-cinematic-marvel#:~:text=With%20hundreds%20of%20extras%20in,calmer%2C%20but%20no%20less%20enthralling.)\\].\n\nIn general, while critical acclaim and social media buzz can significantly boost a film's opening weekend performance, other factors such as competition, marketing strategies, and audience preferences also play crucial roles. Therefore, while many acclaimed films do meet or exceed expectations, it is not guaranteed, and each film's performance can vary based on these additional factors.\n\n\n## R3: B5: How often do films released on Christmas Day in the United States achieve more than $15 million in domestic gross earnings over the five-day period including Christmas?\nAnswer:\nBased on the available data, it is challenging to find specific statistics on how often films released on Christmas Day in the United States achieve more than $15 million in domestic gross earnings over the five-day period including Christmas. However, some insights can be drawn from recent box office performances:\n\n- **\"The Boys in the Boat\"** opened on Christmas Day and earned $5.71 million on its opening day, which suggests a strong start but does not provide a full five-day total \\[[6](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=With%20%24177.6%20million%20internationally%20through,Boys%20in%20the%20Boat%20.)\\]\\[[8](http://www.boxofficereport.com/weekend/20231224.html#:~:text=Amazon%20MGM%20Studios%27%20The%20Boys,over%20the%20age%20of%2055%29.)\\].\n- **\"Avatar: The Way of Water\"** had a strong opening weekend, with expectations of $150 million to $175 million in North American ticket sales through Sunday, indicating that high-grossing films can significantly exceed the $15 million mark during this period \\[[4](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2022-12-16/avatar-the-way-of-water-grosses-a-solid-17-million-in-thursday-showings#:~:text=The%20movie%2C%20which%20cost%20at,%E2%80%9CAvatar%E2%80%9D%20to%20become%20a%20franchise.)\\].\n\nWhile these examples show that some films can achieve substantial earnings, they do not provide a comprehensive statistical overview. Historical data from box office reports would be needed to determine the frequency of films surpassing $15 million during this specific timeframe.\n\n\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nBefore providing a forecast, let's consider the various factors influencing the box office performance of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening 5-day period from December 25 to December 29, 2024.\n\n### (a) Time left until the outcome:\n- There are 8 days left until the film opens, and the box office earnings for this period will be reported shortly after December 29, 2024.\n\n### (b) The outcome if nothing changed:\n- If nothing changes in the current landscape, we might expect a moderate performance based on the typical earnings of biographical films, the popularity of the lead actor Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, and the historical trend of films released during the Christmas period.\n\n### (c) The outcome if the current trend continued:\n- If current trends continue, with strong holiday season earnings and the draw of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, *A Complete Unknown* could perform well, potentially surpassing $10 million in its 5-day opening period.\n\n### (d) The expectations of experts and markets:\n- Given James Mangold's track record and Chalamet's recent box office successes, experts might anticipate a strong performance, especially considering the holiday timing and increased moviegoing activity.\n\n### (e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:\n- An unexpected scenario could involve negative reviews or poor word-of-mouth, leading to lower-than-expected attendance. Additionally, unexpected competition from a surprise blockbuster release could divert audiences away from *A Complete Unknown*.\n\n### (f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:\n- An unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome could involve overwhelmingly positive reviews and strong word-of-mouth, boosting attendance. Additionally, a standout marketing campaign or an unexpected increase in interest in Bob Dylan could drive higher box office numbers.\n\n### Final Forecast:\nTaking into account the various factors and uncertainties, here is the forecast for the domestic gross earnings of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening 5-day period:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $5 million\nPercentile 20: $7 million\nPercentile 40: $9 million\nPercentile 60: $12 million\nPercentile 80: $15 million\nPercentile 90: $18 million\n```\n\nThis forecast reflects a balance between the potential for strong performance due to the film's release timing, cast, and director, and the uncertainties related to competition and audience reception.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\nTo address the interview question on forecasting the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day Christmas opening period, let's consider the following components:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known**: The film will open on December 25, 2024, and the 5-day period ends on December 29, 2024. Since today is December 17, 2024, we have about 12 days until the initial box office performance is known.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed**: If no promotional activities or significant events occurred, the outcome might be influenced by the existing popularity of the cast and director, as well as the intrinsic interest in a Bob Dylan biopic. Given Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's strong box office draw and James Mangold's successful track record, the film could potentially perform moderately well.\n\n(c) **Outcome if the current trend continued**: Considering the current trend of successful Christmas openings and the historical appeal of biographical films, *A Complete Unknown* might perform in line with or slightly above average relative to similar releases. This would suggest earnings potentially exceeding $10 million over the 5-day period.\n\n(d) **Expectations of experts and markets**: Experts might anticipate a solid performance given the film's subject matter, directorial pedigree, and lead actor's popularity. The markets might expect earnings to align with successful Christmas releases, potentially targeting the $10-$20 million range.\n\n(e) **Unexpected low outcome scenario**: An unexpected scenario resulting in a low outcome could involve negative critical reviews or poor word-of-mouth, leading to decreased audience interest. Additionally, significant competition from other high-profile releases could overshadow the film.\n\n(f) **Unexpected high outcome scenario**: A high outcome could result from exceptional critical acclaim, strong marketing, and buzz generated from early screenings. Additionally, if the film captures the zeitgeist or receives awards buzz, it could significantly boost its earnings.\n\n**Final Answer:**\n\nPercentile 10: $5 million \nPercentile 20: $7 million \nPercentile 40: $10 million \nPercentile 60: $13 million \nPercentile 80: $16 million \nPercentile 90: $18 million \n\nThis forecast considers various factors, including historical trends, the cast and director's track records, and potential market dynamics during the Christmas release period.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n### Forecasting Process:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** \nThe film *A Complete Unknown* will release on December 25, 2024. The 5-day box office earnings will be known by December 30, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:** \nIf nothing changed, the film's earnings would be unknown. Given the current lack of specific data, a neutral estimate based on historical data would be around $10 million.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:** \nIf the current trend of strong holiday openings for films continues, and considering the popularity of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, the film could perform well, potentially earning between $10 to $30 million in its opening 5-day period.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:** \nExperts might anticipate a successful opening due to the film's release timing, director's track record, and lead actor's popularity. A conservative expert estimate might place the 5-day earnings between $15 to $25 million.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:** \nAn unexpected scenario could involve negative reviews or poor audience reception, leading to a lower turnout, resulting in earnings below $5 million.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:** \nA high outcome could occur if the film receives exceptional reviews, leading to strong word-of-mouth promotion and higher attendance, resulting in earnings above $30 million.\n\n### Final Forecast:\n\nBased on the provided data, historical trends, and potential variables, here's the forecast for *A Complete Unknown*'s 5-day domestic earnings:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $5 million\nPercentile 20: $8 million\nPercentile 40: $12 million\nPercentile 60: $18 million\nPercentile 80: $25 million\nPercentile 90: $30 million\n``` \n\nThis range accounts for various scenarios, including both unexpected challenges and opportunities that could impact the film's performance.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\nTo forecast the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day opening period from December 25 to December 29, 2024, let's go through the outlined points:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known**: There are about 12 days until the movie's release, and the outcome will be known shortly after December 29, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed**: If nothing changes, we can consider the general trend for movies released during the Christmas period. Historically, many films achieve significant earnings due to increased movie-going activity during the holidays.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued**: Given the success of similar films, such as those directed by James Mangold and starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, along with the strong performance of films released during Christmas, it is likely that *A Complete Unknown* could earn a substantial amount, potentially exceeding $10 million in its opening 5-day period.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets**: Industry experts might expect *A Complete Unknown* to perform well due to the holiday release, the popularity of biographical films, and the strong cast and director. However, without specific marketing details, this is a generalized expectation.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome**: An unexpected scenario that could lead to a low outcome might include a significant competing film release that draws away the target audience or unfavorable reviews that dampen public interest.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome**: A scenario leading to a high outcome could be an exceptionally strong marketing campaign that resonates with audiences, coupled with positive critical reviews that create a buzz, driving higher-than-expected attendance.\n\nBased on these considerations, here is a forecast with corresponding percentiles for the domestic gross earnings during the 5-day opening period of *A Complete Unknown*:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $7 million\nPercentile 20: $9 million\nPercentile 40: $12 million\nPercentile 60: $15 million\nPercentile 80: $18 million\nPercentile 90: $22 million\n```\n\nThese estimates account for potential variability in performance due to the holiday release timing, the film's cast and director, and general market trends.\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately two weeks, as the film \"A Complete Unknown\" is set to release on December 25, 2024, and the five-day period extends through December 29, 2024. \n\n(b) If nothing changed, meaning no additional marketing efforts or unexpected events occurred, the film could perform moderately well, given the holiday period and the strong market presence of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet. However, without additional context, it's challenging to accurately predict a specific outcome. \n\n(c) If the current trend continued, where films released on Christmas Day tend to perform well, with past examples earning over $5 million in their opening five-day periods, \"A Complete Unknown\" could likely achieve similar earnings. The strong market draw of Chalamet and the director's previous successes suggest a positive outlook.\n\n(d) The expectations of experts and markets would likely lean towards a favorable box office performance, considering the holiday release, strong lead actor, and director's track record. However, without specific data on promotional strategies or competing films, these expectations are speculative.\n\n(e) An unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome could involve a major competing film releasing simultaneously, drawing audiences away, or negative critical reviews that significantly impact audience interest.\n\n(f) An unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome might include a significant surge in interest due to a viral marketing campaign or a major award nomination shortly before release, boosting anticipation and ticket sales.\n\nTaking these considerations into account, the wide 90/10 confidence intervals reflect the potential variability in outcomes:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $5 million\nPercentile 20: $7 million\nPercentile 40: $10 million\nPercentile 60: $13 million\nPercentile 80: $18 million\nPercentile 90: $22 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nBefore providing a forecast for the domestic gross earnings of \"A Complete Unknown\" during its 5-day opening run from December 25 through December 29, 2024, I'll address the key points:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** The movie opens on December 25, 2024, and we are currently on December 17, 2024. This means we have approximately 12 days until the opening, and the earnings for the period in question will be known shortly after December 29, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:** In a scenario where no additional information or changes occur, we rely on historical performance and known factors. James Mangold's track record with biographical films, the star power of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, and the holiday release timing suggest a potential moderate to strong opening. However, given the lack of specific projections or unique selling points beyond the usual expectations for a biopic, a conservative estimate might be around $30-$50 million.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:** If current trends and factors, such as increasing competition from streaming services and a crowded holiday movie schedule, continue, the earnings might align with or slightly exceed the conservative estimate. This could place the earnings in the range of $40-$60 million.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:** Without specific projections available, it's challenging to pinpoint expert expectations. However, the combination of Mangold's previous successes and Chalamet's star power might suggest an anticipation of $50 million or more, especially if the film receives positive critical reception.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:** An unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome could involve significant competition from other high-profile releases or negative reviews that dampen audience interest. Additionally, a severe winter storm impacting major markets could reduce theater attendance.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:** A high outcome could occur if the film receives unexpected critical acclaim or award nominations, sparking increased interest and strong word-of-mouth. Additionally, a standout performance by Chalamet or a viral marketing campaign could drive higher-than-expected attendance.\n\nGiven these considerations, here's a forecast for the domestic gross earnings of \"A Complete Unknown\" during its 5-day opening period:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $25 million\nPercentile 20: $35 million\nPercentile 40: $45 million\nPercentile 60: $55 million\nPercentile 80: $65 million\nPercentile 90: $75 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome is known: The film \"A Complete Unknown\" is set to open on December 25, 2024, and the forecast is for the 5-day period ending December 29, 2024. Therefore, the outcome will be known shortly after December 29, likely by early January 2025.\n\n(b) The outcome if nothing changed: If we assume no changes in current expectations and trends, the film might perform in line with other biographical films by James Mangold and films starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, which suggests a moderate box office performance. Given Mangold's history of successful films and Chalamet's draw, a reasonable estimate might be in the range of $30-$50 million for the 5-day period.\n\n(c) The outcome if the current trend continued: If the trend of increased holiday movie attendance and interest in biographical films continues, along with Chalamet's rising popularity, the film could see higher earnings, potentially reaching $60-$75 million.\n\n(d) The expectations of experts and markets: Currently, there are no specific projections from industry analysts for \"A Complete Unknown.\" However, given the director's reputation and the holiday release timing, industry experts might expect it to open moderately well, with potential to exceed expectations if it receives positive reviews and strong word-of-mouth.\n\n(e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome: An unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome could be negative critical reviews or poor audience reception, which could significantly dampen box office performance. Additionally, strong competition from other films released during the same period or disruptions due to external factors (e.g., severe weather, health concerns) could negatively impact attendance.\n\n(f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome: An unexpected scenario leading to a high outcome could involve the film receiving exceptional critical acclaim and awards-season buzz, driving greater audience interest. Additionally, a standout performance by Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet or a strong marketing campaign could elevate its profile and result in higher-than-expected earnings.\n\nFinal answer:\n```\nPercentile 10: $25 million\nPercentile 20: $35 million\nPercentile 40: $45 million\nPercentile 60: $55 million\nPercentile 80: $65 million\nPercentile 90: $75 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\nTo forecast the domestic gross earnings of *A Complete Unknown* during its opening 5-day period from December 25th to December 29th, 2024, let's break down the process:\n\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known**: The outcome will be known shortly after December 29th, 2024, as box office data is typically reported by the following day or within a few days.\n\n(b) **Outcome if nothing changed**: If the film's performance aligns with average biographical films and films released during Christmas, we might expect earnings similar to other successful biographical films or films released at this time, which often see strong box office numbers due to the holiday.\n\n(c) **Outcome if the current trend continued**: Considering James Mangold's track record and Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's draw, the film could see a strong opening, potentially similar to other successful biopics or holiday releases. A reasonable estimate might be in the range of $30-$50 million, given the factors involved.\n\n(d) **Expectations of experts and markets**: While specific projections are not available, industry analysts typically look at factors such as star power, director reputation, marketing strategy, and competition. Given the film's subject matter and the holiday release, expectations might lean towards a solid opening, though not necessarily blockbuster-level without extraordinary reviews or buzz.\n\n(e) **Unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome**: Poor reviews or competition from other major releases, especially if there are unexpected hits during the holiday season, could dampen earnings. Additionally, adverse weather or other unforeseen events affecting theater attendance could result in lower-than-expected earnings.\n\n(f) **Unexpected scenario leading to a high outcome**: Exceptional critical acclaim, strong word-of-mouth, or awards buzz could elevate interest in the film. Additionally, if the film captures the cultural zeitgeist or if there are no strong competing films, it could exceed expectations significantly.\n\nBased on these considerations, here's a forecast with wide confidence intervals to account for uncertainties:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $15 million\nPercentile 20: $20 million\nPercentile 40: $30 million\nPercentile 60: $40 million\nPercentile 80: $50 million\nPercentile 90: $60 million\n``` \n\nThese estimates reflect the potential variability in box office performance due to the factors discussed and aim to capture a range of plausible outcomes.\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n**(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known:** \nThe outcome will be known shortly after the 5-day box office period, which ends on December 29, 2024. Given that today is December 17, 2024, there are 12 days remaining until the end of this period.\n\n**(b) The outcome if nothing changed:** \nIf nothing were to change, and assuming typical market conditions, a biographical film such as \"A Complete Unknown,\" directed by James Mangold and starring popular actors like Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, would likely perform moderately well. Considering Mangold's previous biographical films and Chalamet's drawing power, a reasonable estimate could be in the range of $20-$40 million for the 5-day opening period.\n\n**(c) The outcome if the current trend continued:** \nPast trends for Mangold's films and recent biographical films suggest that \"A Complete Unknown\" could follow a similar path to films like \"Walk the Line,\" although possibly adjusted for inflation and current market conditions. If the trend of strong openings for Mangold's films continues, the film could earn between $30-$50 million over the 5-day period.\n\n**(d) The expectations of experts and markets:** \nWithout specific projections from industry analysts, we can infer from typical market performance and the film's potential appeal. Given the holiday release and the popularity of both Dylan's music and the film's cast, experts might expect a strong opening, possibly exceeding $40 million if the film receives positive reviews and strong promotional support.\n\n**(e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:** \nAn unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome might involve negative critical reviews or a significant competing release that draws away the target audience. Additionally, adverse weather conditions or a resurgence in health-related restrictions could reduce theater attendance, resulting in earnings below $20 million.\n\n**(f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:** \nConversely, a high outcome could result from overwhelmingly positive critical reviews and word-of-mouth that draw in not just Dylan fans but a broad audience. A strong promotional push or unexpected cultural relevance could propel the film to exceed $60 million during the 5-day period.\n\n**Final Answer:**\n```\nPercentile 10: $18 million\nPercentile 20: $24 million\nPercentile 40: $32 million\nPercentile 60: $40 million\nPercentile 80: $50 million\nPercentile 90: $60 million\n```\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\nGiven the task of forecasting the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day opening from Christmas 2024 through December 29, 2024, I'll go through the provided steps and synthesize the information before making a prediction.\n\n### (a) The Time Left Until the Outcome is Known:\nToday is December 17, 2024, and the film opens on December 25, 2024. The forecast period ends on December 29, 2024. Thus, the outcome will be known shortly after that date, likely by January 1, 2025.\n\n### (b) The Outcome if Nothing Changed:\nIf no new information or significant changes occur, the film's performance might mirror similar films in its genre and release period. Comparable biographical films, especially those released during the Christmas period, have varied widely in success, often depending on critical reception, star power, and marketing.\n\n### (c) The Outcome if the Current Trend Continued:\nIf current trends in biographical films and those starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet continue, it might achieve moderate success. Chalamet's recent work, like \"Wonka,\" shows he can draw audiences, though not necessarily in blockbuster numbers. James Mangold's track record with biographical films and the holiday release could provide a modest boost.\n\n### (d) The Expectations of Experts and Markets:\nThere is no specific data from industry analysts on this film's expected opening, but historically, films by Mangold and with Chalamet have had respectable openings. Given the holiday release, there's potential for higher-than-average attendance.\n\n### (e) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a Low Outcome:\nNegative reviews, overshadowing by other Christmas releases, or adverse weather conditions affecting key markets could result in lower attendance. Additionally, if the film doesn't resonate with audiences or if streaming services draw away potential viewers, it could underperform.\n\n### (f) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a High Outcome:\nPositive critical reception, awards buzz, or a standout performance by Chalamet could drive higher attendance. Additionally, strong marketing campaigns or significant interest in Bob Dylan's life could lead to a surge in viewership.\n\n### Final Answer:\nGiven the information, my forecast for the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during its 5-day opening period is as follows:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $20 million\nPercentile 20: $30 million\nPercentile 40: $40 million\nPercentile 60: $50 million\nPercentile 80: $60 million\nPercentile 90: $70 million\n```\n\nThese estimates consider the potential variability in audience reception, competition, and the impact of the holiday season on movie attendance.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\nBefore providing a forecast, let's go through the necessary steps:\n\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:**\nThe film \"A Complete Unknown\" is set to be released on December 25, 2024, and the five-day period for box office earnings will conclude on December 29, 2024. Today is December 17, 2024, so there are about eight days remaining until the release and approximately 12 days until the earnings outcome is known.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:**\nIf nothing changed, the film would not have any earnings because it wouldn't be released. However, since the release date is fixed, this scenario is not applicable here.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:**\nCurrent trends suggest strong social media buzz and critical acclaim for \"A Complete Unknown.\" If these trends continue, the film could have a solid opening, driven by interest in Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's performance as Bob Dylan and the holiday release timing, which generally boosts attendance.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:**\nExperts likely anticipate a strong opening for \"A Complete Unknown,\" especially given the holiday release and positive buzz around the film. However, exact expectations might vary, particularly considering the mixed performance of films during the Christmas period in recent years.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:**\nAn unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome could involve a major winter storm or severe weather conditions affecting large parts of North America, significantly reducing theater attendance during the Christmas week. Additionally, poor word-of-mouth after the initial release could dampen interest.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:**\nA high outcome could occur if the film receives overwhelming positive reviews immediately upon release, creating a viral moment on social media. Additionally, if the film garners significant award buzz or unexpected endorsements from influential figures, it could drive higher turnout than anticipated.\n\nNow, considering these points, here's the final forecast with a 90/10 confidence interval:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $10 million\nPercentile 20: $15 million\nPercentile 40: $25 million\nPercentile 60: $35 million\nPercentile 80: $45 million\nPercentile 90: $55 million\n```\n\nThis forecast takes into account the strong social media buzz, critical acclaim, and the holiday release timing, while also considering potential risks and uncertainties that could impact box office performance.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n### Forecasting Framework\n\n(a) **Time Left Until Outcome is Known:**\nThe film *A Complete Unknown* is set for release on December 25, 2024, and the five-day box office performance will be tracked through December 29, 2024. Thus, the outcome will be known shortly after this period, likely by early January 2025.\n\n(b) **Outcome if Nothing Changed:**\nIf nothing changed, considering the positive buzz and critical acclaim, *A Complete Unknown* could perform well, but given the variability in historical performances of biographical films, it might achieve moderate success around industry averages for similar films.\n\n(c) **Outcome if Current Trend Continued:**\nGiven the existing positive critical reception and social media buzz, the film could see a strong opening. Historically, films with similar pre-release buzz have had successful openings; therefore, if this trend continues, the film could potentially exceed average biographical film earnings.\n\n(d) **Expectations of Experts and Markets:**\nThe film benefits from the star power of Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet and the direction of James Mangold, both of whom have histories of strong box office performances. The timing of its release during the lucrative Christmas period also aligns with higher audience turnout. Experts and markets might expect the film to perform well, potentially achieving a box office gross in the range of $20 million to $30 million over the five-day period.\n\n(e) **Unexpected Low Outcome Scenario:**\nAn unexpected low outcome might occur if the film faces unforeseen competition from other major releases during the same period, or if there is a significant shift in audience preferences. Additionally, adverse weather conditions or other external factors affecting theater attendance could also result in lower earnings.\n\n(f) **Unexpected High Outcome Scenario:**\nA high outcome scenario could emerge if the film receives extraordinary word-of-mouth reviews, leading to a wider audience reach. Additionally, if the film garners awards recognition or nominations shortly after release, it could boost attendance significantly, pushing box office earnings higher than expected.\n\n### Final Answer (Box Office Gross Predictions in USD)\n\n- **Percentile 10:** $10 million\n- **Percentile 20:** $15 million\n- **Percentile 40:** $20 million\n- **Percentile 60:** $25 million\n- **Percentile 80:** $30 million\n- **Percentile 90:** $35 million\n\nThis forecast considers the available data on critical reception, timing of release, historical performance of biographical films, and the influence of star power and direction. It also acknowledges the inherent uncertainties in predicting box office performance.\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) **The time left until the outcome to the question is known:**\n\nThe film is slated for release on December 25, 2024, and the 5-day box office figure will be known by December 30, 2024, which is approximately 13 days from today, December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) **The outcome if nothing changed:**\n\nIf current factors remain unchanged, including social media buzz, critical acclaim, and historical performance of similar films, the film could perform well due to its holiday release and Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's popularity. However, without additional data, it's difficult to determine a precise figure.\n\n(c) **The outcome if the current trend continued:**\n\nAssuming that the positive critical reception and social media buzz continue to build, and considering the historical performance of similar films, the film could potentially achieve a strong opening. Biographical films with strong performances and high-profile directors have seen moderate to strong box office results in similar circumstances.\n\n(d) **The expectations of experts and markets:**\n\nExperts might expect a solid performance given the film's critical acclaim, Chalamet's star power, and the historical success of James Mangold's films. However, competition from other holiday releases and market conditions could impact expectations. Markets typically anticipate higher attendance during the holiday season, which could boost earnings.\n\n(e) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome:**\n\nUnexpectedly poor word-of-mouth or negative critical reviews that surface post-release could hamper the film's performance. Additionally, severe weather conditions or other unforeseen events affecting major markets could lead to lower theater attendance.\n\n(f) **A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome:**\n\nIf the film receives overwhelmingly positive audience reviews, leading to strong word-of-mouth, it could significantly exceed expectations. Additionally, if other holiday releases underperform or are delayed, it could reduce competition and boost earnings for *A Complete Unknown*.\n\n**Final Answer:**\n\nGiven the information and considering various scenarios, I would forecast the domestic gross earnings for *A Complete Unknown* during the 5-day period as follows:\n\nPercentile 10: $10 million \nPercentile 20: $15 million \nPercentile 40: $22 million \nPercentile 60: $28 million \nPercentile 80: $35 million \nPercentile 90: $42 million \n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is roughly two weeks, as the film's release and the subsequent five-day box office period will run from December 25, 2024, through December 29, 2024.\n\n(b) The outcome if nothing changed would theoretically be the zero earnings since the movie has not yet been released. However, this doesn't apply here, as the film is scheduled for release and will earn during the specified period.\n\n(c) The outcome if the current trend continued would be difficult to specify exactly, as current trends include the film's positive critical reception, social media buzz, and Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet's strong fan base. These factors suggest a favorable opening, potentially in line with other successful biographical films or films starring Chalamet that have performed well.\n\n(d) The expectations of experts and markets might lean toward a positive outcome given the critical acclaim, the timing of the release during the lucrative Christmas period, and the involvement of a popular actor and a respected director. \n\n(e) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a low outcome might include severe weather conditions or a resurgence of pandemic-related restrictions that deter audiences from attending theaters during the Christmas period.\n\n(f) A brief description of an unexpected scenario that results in a high outcome might involve the film receiving an unexpected surge in word-of-mouth praise after its release, leading to widespread attention and increased attendance, or perhaps a notable award nomination or win that draws additional interest.\n\nTaking into account the factors mentioned, such as the film's positive buzz, the holiday release timing, and the historical performance of similar films, I would project the following:\n\nPercentile 10: $10 million \nPercentile 20: $15 million \nPercentile 40: $22 million \nPercentile 60: $30 million \nPercentile 80: $40 million \nPercentile 90: $50 million\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\nTo address the interview question, I will consider various factors and scenarios that could influence the box office performance of \"A Complete Unknown\" during its opening 5-day period from Christmas 2024 through December 29, 2024.\n\n### Analysis Framework\n\n#### (a) The Time Left Until the Outcome is Known\nThe outcome will be known shortly after December 29, 2024, as box office data is typically reported soon after the weekend ends.\n\n#### (b) The Outcome if Nothing Changed\nIf nothing were to change, based on current trends and data, the film could be expected to perform decently due to its critical acclaim, strong cast, and the historical success of James Mangold's films. Additionally, the Christmas release window is generally favorable for films.\n\n#### (c) The Outcome if the Current Trend Continued\nContinuing the current trend of strong critical reception and social media buzz, the film could achieve a successful opening, potentially in the range of $10-20 million, given the factors at play.\n\n#### (d) The Expectations of Experts and Markets\nExperts and industry watchers might expect a decent performance, considering the film's positive reviews, lead cast's popularity, and the director's track record. The film might be expected to earn somewhere between $10-25 million over the 5-day period.\n\n#### (e) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a Low Outcome\nAn unexpected scenario leading to a low outcome might include a significant winter storm that disrupts movie-going in key markets, or the release of a competing blockbuster that captures the majority of the audience's attention.\n\n#### (f) A Brief Description of an Unexpected Scenario that Results in a High Outcome\nA high outcome could result from unexpected factors such as a major award nomination announcement during the release period, which boosts audience interest and attendance. Additionally, if the film resonates exceptionally well with audiences, positive word-of-mouth could significantly drive box office numbers.\n\n### Final Answer\n\nTaking into account the information and analysis above, here are the projected percentiles for \"A Complete Unknown\" in terms of domestic gross earnings during the 5-day opening period:\n\n```\nPercentile 10: $8 million\nPercentile 20: $10 million\nPercentile 40: $15 million\nPercentile 60: $20 million\nPercentile 80: $25 million\nPercentile 90: $30 million\n```\n\nThese projections reflect a range of outcomes, considering both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, while accounting for the inherent uncertainties in predicting box office performance.\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 1.6582049999999986, + "minutes_taken": 1.5967149615287781, + "forecast_info": [], + "prediction": { + "declared_percentiles": [ + { + "value": 10.0, + "percentile": 0.1 + }, + { + "value": 10.3, + "percentile": 0.10600000000000002 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The resolution source will be the social media analytics website Social Blade.\n\nThe three Twitter/X accounts are: \n\n* [Elon Musk](https://x.com/elonmusk) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk/monthly).\n* [The New York Times](https://x.com/nytimes) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/nytimes/monthly).\n* [The Economist](https://x.com/TheEconomist) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/theeconomist/monthly).\n\nThe number of tweets reported by Social Blade for December 21-December 30, 2024 (inclusive) will be summed for each Twitter/X account.", + "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie or other such edge cases preventing there from being a clear winner, this question will be annulled. ", + "background_info": "Wikipedia: [Twitter under Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) | The Economist: [Elon Musk\u2019s transformation, in his own words Our analysis of 38,000 posts on X reveal a changed man](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/11/21/elon-musks-transformation-in-his-own-words) | Fortune: [Elon Musk\u2019s X/Twitter removes the New York Times\u2019 gold verification badge](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-x-twitter-removes-151913195.html)", + "close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00", + "actual_resolution_time": null, + "scheduled_resolution_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00", + "date_accessed": "2024-12-17T15:05:53.555361", + "api_json": { + "id": 31010, + "title": "Who will send out more tweets in the 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024--Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist?", + "url_title": "Most tweets Dec 21-30 '24: Elon Musk, NYT, or The Economist?", + "slug": "most-tweets-dec-21-30-24-elon-musk-nyt-or-the-economist", + "author_id": 115975, + "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", + "coauthors": [], + "projects": { + "category": [ + { + "id": 3696, + "name": "Sports & Entertainment", + "slug": "sports-entertainment", + "description": "Sports & Entertainment", + "type": "category" + }, + { + "id": 3698, + "name": "Economy & Business", + "slug": "economy-business", + "description": "Economy & Business", + "type": "category" + }, + { + "id": 3701, + "name": "Technology", + "slug": "technology", + "description": "Technology", + "type": "category" + } + ], + "question_series": [ + { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + ], + "default_project": { + "id": 32506, + "type": "question_series", + "name": "Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", + "slug": "aibq4", + "prize_pool": "30000.00", + "start_date": "2024-10-08T19:25:49Z", + "close_date": "2025-01-01T19:25:50Z", + "meta_description": "", + "is_ongoing": true, + "user_permission": null, + "created_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380022Z", + "edited_at": "2024-10-07T19:26:23.380027Z", + "default_permission": "viewer", + "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", + "is_current_content_translated": false + } + }, + "created_at": "2024-12-12T20:27:02.340076Z", + "published_at": "2024-12-14T14:25:46.032073Z", + "edited_at": "2024-12-17T15:00:38.165356Z", + "curation_status": "approved", + "comment_count": 0, + "status": "open", + "resolved": false, + "actual_close_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "nr_forecasters": 12, + "question": { + "id": 30770, + "title": "Who will send out more tweets in the 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024--Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist?", + "description": "Wikipedia: [Twitter under Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) | The Economist: [Elon Musk\u2019s transformation, in his own words Our analysis of 38,000 posts on X reveal a changed man](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/11/21/elon-musks-transformation-in-his-own-words) | Fortune: [Elon Musk\u2019s X/Twitter removes the New York Times\u2019 gold verification badge](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-x-twitter-removes-151913195.html)", + "created_at": "2024-12-12T20:27:02.340414Z", + "open_time": "2024-12-14T15:30:00Z", + "cp_reveal_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", + "actual_resolve_time": null, + "resolution_set_time": null, + "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "actual_close_time": "2024-12-17T15:30:00Z", + "type": "multiple_choice", + "options": [ + "Elon Musk: @elonmusk", + "The NY Times: @nytimes", + "The Economist: @TheEconomist" + ], + "group_variable": "X/(formerly Twitter) account", + "status": "open", + "possibilities": null, + "resolution": null, + "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, + "question_weight": 1.0, + "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the option corresponding with the X platform (formerly Twitter) account that has the most posts (tweets) in the 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024. The resolution source will be the social media analytics website Social Blade.\n\nThe three Twitter/X accounts are: \n\n* [Elon Musk](https://x.com/elonmusk) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk/monthly).\n* [The New York Times](https://x.com/nytimes) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/nytimes/monthly).\n* [The Economist](https://x.com/TheEconomist) -- Social Blade resolution source [here](https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/theeconomist/monthly).\n\nThe number of tweets reported by Social Blade for December 21-December 30, 2024 (inclusive) will be summed for each Twitter/X account.", + "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie or other such edge cases preventing there from being a clear winner, this question will be annulled. 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Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 60.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15.0%\n\n*Forecaster 2*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 3*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 4*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15.0%\n\n*Forecaster 5*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nThe research report examines the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist on their respective X accounts, focusing on the period from December 21-30, 2024. Recent data indicates that Elon Musk has been more active on X compared to The New York Times, with at least three tweets in a five-day span, while The New York Times tweeted twice over eight days. The Economist's recent tweet frequency is not specified, but they are actively expanding their social media team, suggesting a potential increase in activity [Q1, Q3].\n\nFactors influencing tweet frequency include Elon Musk's known high engagement on social media, The New York Times' steady stream of news updates, and The Economist's focus on global news and analysis. The holiday season and strategic goals of these entities could impact their tweet activity, with Musk likely to tweet more frequently based on recent patterns and engagement levels [Q2, Q4].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- No specific historical data is available on the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the holiday season over the past three years [B1, B2, B3].\n- There is no specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period over the past year [B4].\n- No specific data is available on how often The New York Times has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period over the past year [B5].\n\n#### Pros\n- Elon Musk has a pattern of frequent tweeting, with recent activity showing multiple tweets in a short span, suggesting he may continue this trend during the specified period [Q1, Q2].\n- The Economist is expanding its social media team, indicating a potential increase in tweet frequency and engagement [Q3].\n\n#### Cons\n- The New York Times' recent tweets show minimal engagement, which could indicate a lower volume of tweets compared to Elon Musk, especially if there are no major news events [Q2].\n- The holiday season might reduce The Economist's output if staff are on leave or if there are fewer newsworthy events [Q2].\n\n\n## Report 2 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 2*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 3*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 4*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 5*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nRecent events suggest potential influences on the tweeting activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the specified period. Elon Musk's involvement in political engagements, particularly with Donald Trump's transition team, may lead to increased tweeting activity as he engages in political discussions or announcements [Q2]. The New York Times is actively covering significant political events, such as Trump's meetings with tech executives, which could also result in heightened tweeting activity as they report on these developments [Q2]. However, there is no specific information about The Economist's recent activities that might influence their tweeting frequency during this period.\n\nHistorically, Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-engagement tweets, often tweeting multiple times a day, which suggests a high volume of tweets over a 10-day period [Q3]. In contrast, The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns, focusing on news updates and articles [Q3]. There are no specific public statements from any of the entities regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024, and no known upcoming events that might trigger increased tweeting from any of the three accounts during the specified period [Q4, Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- There is no direct data available on how often Elon Musk tweets more than The New York Times and The Economist over a 10-day period, but he is known for high engagement and frequent tweeting [B1].\n- Specific data on The New York Times tweeting more than 50 times over a 10-day period in the last year is not available [B2].\n- Specific data on The Economist tweeting more than 30 times over a 10-day period in the last year is not available [B3].\n- Specific data on Elon Musk tweeting more than 100 times in any given 10-day period over the past year is not available [B4].\n\n#### Pros\n- Elon Musk's involvement in political engagements, particularly with Donald Trump's transition team, may lead to increased tweeting activity [Q2].\n- Historically, Elon Musk is known for frequent and high-engagement tweets, suggesting a high volume of tweets over a 10-day period [Q3].\n\n#### Cons\n- There are no specific public statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024 [Q4].\n- There are no known upcoming events or news cycles that might trigger increased tweeting from any of the three accounts during the specified period [Q5].\n\n\n## Report 3 Summary\n### Forecasts\n*Forecaster 1*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 60.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 30.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 2*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n*Forecaster 3*: \n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65.0%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25.0%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10.0%\n\n\n\n### Research Summary\n#### Research Overview\nIn the last month, Elon Musk has shown a high level of activity on Twitter, frequently tweeting on various topics and receiving significant engagement. This pattern suggests that Musk is likely to continue his active tweeting behavior during the specified period from December 21-December 30, 2024. In contrast, The New York Times has demonstrated less frequent and less engaging Twitter activity, with minimal interaction on their posts. There is no specific data available for The Economist's recent Twitter activity, but based on general trends, it is likely to maintain a consistent presence, albeit less frequent than Musk's [Q1].\n\nThere are no specific statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their planned posting activity during the holiday period. Additionally, no significant events are anticipated that might directly affect their tweet frequency during this time. However, unforeseen events could potentially influence their activity. Historical trends suggest that Elon Musk remains active on Twitter during the holiday season, while The New York Times and The Economist maintain steady but potentially reduced activity [Q2, Q4, Q5].\n\n#### Possible Base Rates\n- Elon Musk has been active on Twitter during the holiday season in previous years, but specific data on tweeting more than 10 times in a 10-day period is unavailable [B1].\n- The New York Times has tweeted more than 50 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season, but specific historical data is lacking [B2].\n- The Economist likely tweets more than 20 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season, though precise historical data is not provided [B3].\n\n#### Pros\n- Elon Musk's recent high engagement and frequent tweeting suggest he may continue this pattern during the specified period [Q1].\n- Historically, Elon Musk has been a prolific user of Twitter, especially after acquiring the platform, indicating a potential for high tweet volume [B4].\n\n#### Cons\n- There are no specific statements or anticipated events that suggest an increase in tweet frequency for any of the accounts during the holiday period [Q2, Q4].\n- The New York Times and The Economist may maintain a steady but potentially reduced tweet frequency during the holiday season, based on historical trends [Q5].\n\n\n# RESEARCH\n## R1: Q1: What is the recent tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist on their respective X accounts?\nAnswer:\nBased on the recent activity on their respective X accounts, here is the tweet frequency for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist:\n\n- **Elon Musk**: Elon Musk has been quite active on X, with tweets on December 11, 14, and 15, 2024 \\[[3](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1866787090102620304#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2Fen%2Fprivacy%20Conversation%20Dec%2011%2010%3A08,to%20the%20and%20%2C%20including)\\]\\[[4](https://twitter.com/ElonMuskAOC/status/1867997487765811267#:~:text=What%20do%20you%20want%20for,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]\\[[11](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1868098574145265777#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20ARMY%2DNAVY%20%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FAEVHGP5v15%7C%20created_at%3A,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20und)\\]. This suggests a pattern of frequent tweeting, with at least three tweets in the span of five days.\n\n- **The New York Times**: The New York Times has also been active, with tweets on December 6 and 14, 2024 \\[[5](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867986222066368830#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2Fe1fM2J6c9D%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[12](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867969622265270725#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FcpLfjzhGmv%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[14](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1864918025570312604#:~:text=Change%20in%20Abstract%20https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FWuZNteUfPi%7C%20created_at%3A,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This indicates a less frequent tweeting pattern compared to Elon Musk, with two tweets over an eight-day period.\n\n- **The Economist**: Unfortunately, there is no specific data available in the search results regarding The Economist's recent tweet frequency. Additional research would be needed to determine their activity level.\n\nGiven this information, Elon Musk appears to have a higher tweet frequency compared to The New York Times in the recent period analyzed. This could suggest that he might continue to tweet more frequently in the upcoming 10-day period from December 21-30, 2024.\n\n\n## R1: Q2: What factors could influence the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the specified period?\nAnswer:\nTo forecast who will send out more tweets between Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist from December 21-30, 2024, consider the following factors:\n\n1. **Elon Musk's Tweeting Behavior**: Elon Musk is known for his high engagement on Twitter, often tweeting multiple times a day. Recent activity shows he tweeted on December 12, 14, and 15, 2024, with high engagement metrics such as 179,378 favorites and 12,174 retweets on a single tweet [3, 7]. This suggests a high likelihood of continued frequent tweeting, especially if he is involved in ongoing discussions or events.\n\n2. **The New York Times' Tweeting Patterns**: The New York Times typically maintains a steady stream of tweets, often focusing on news updates and articles. However, recent tweets from their account show minimal engagement, with some tweets having no retweets or favorites [5, 9, 15]. This could indicate a lower volume of tweets compared to Elon Musk, especially if there are no major news events during the specified period.\n\n3. **The Economist's Activity**: While not directly mentioned in the search results, The Economist generally tweets regularly, focusing on global news and analysis. Their frequency might be influenced by the holiday season, potentially reducing output if staff are on leave or if there are fewer newsworthy events.\n\nOverall, based on recent activity and engagement levels, Elon Musk is likely to tweet more frequently than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n\n## R1: Q3: Have there been any recent statements or strategies from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their social media engagement?\nAnswer:\nRecent developments regarding social media engagement strategies from The Economist and The New York Times provide some insights into their potential activity levels on platforms like Twitter. The Economist is actively expanding its social media team, hiring a Social-Media Editor and a Social-Media Fellow to enhance their digital presence. Their strategy focuses on distributing journalism across various digital channels, including social media platforms, newsletters, and emerging formats like WhatsApp Channels and Apple News. This indicates a concerted effort to increase their social media output and engagement \\[[1](https://www.economist.com/news/2024/01/31/the-economists-social-media-team-is-hiring-in-london#:~:text=They%20are%20innovative%2C%20unstoppable%20newshounds,accurate%20manner%20across%20digital%20channels.)\\]\\[[9](https://www.economist.com/news/2024/01/31/the-economists-social-media-team-is-hiring-in-london#:~:text=We%20are%20now%20hiring%20a,have%20told%20engaging%20stories%20online.)\\].\n\nThe New York Times, on the other hand, has been focusing on integrating social media strategies with their broader audience engagement efforts. Jake Grovum, a social strategy editor, has been working closely with various desks to ensure their journalism reaches a wide audience in a compelling manner. This includes collaboration with visual departments to enhance the sharing of their work on social platforms \\[[6](https://www.nytco.com/press/a-promotion-for-jake-grovum-2/#:~:text=He%E2%80%99ll%20partner%20with%20news%20desks%2C,share%20their%20signature%20work%20off%2Dplatform.)\\]. While specific strategies for Twitter are not detailed, this approach suggests a robust and potentially high-volume social media presence.\n\nNo specific recent statements or strategies from Elon Musk regarding his personal social media engagement were found in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R1: Q4: What events or news are expected between December 21-December 30, 2024, that might impact tweet activity for these accounts?\nAnswer:\nBetween December 21-30, 2024, several factors could influence tweet activity for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist. \n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Musk's influence in both social media and Washington is significant, and he is frequently a topic of discussion in the news \\[[15](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/05/elon-musk-jeff-bezos-news#:~:text=Between%20the%20lines%3A%20In%20news,Musk%20even%20more.%20Go%20deeper)\\]. This could lead to increased tweet activity as he engages with his audience and responds to ongoing discussions. Additionally, the presence of alternative platforms like Bluesky, which has gained traction as a refuge from Musk's influence on X (formerly Twitter), might impact his tweeting behavior as he potentially seeks to retain his audience \\[[3](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/magazine/bluesky-social-media.html#:~:text=Bluesky%2C%20created%20by%20one%20of,she%20posted%20on%20the%20site.)\\]\\[[4](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/magazine/bluesky-social-media.html#:~:text=Call%20it%20whatever.%20But%20each,the%20interferences%20of%20Elon%20Musk.)\\].\n\n2. **The New York Times and The Economist**: Both publications are likely to maintain high tweet activity due to their extensive global coverage and subscriber base. The New York Times, in particular, is working towards expanding its subscriber base to 10 million by 2025, which may drive increased content sharing and engagement on social media platforms \\[[9](https://dv.nytimes.com#:~:text=Times%20journalism%20is%20in%20amazing,world%2Dclass%20technology%20and%20product%20company.)\\]. The period in question might also coincide with significant news events or end-of-year retrospectives, which typically result in heightened activity for news organizations.\n\nThese dynamics suggest that while all three accounts may be active, Musk's personal engagement and the strategic goals of the news organizations could lead to varying levels of tweet activity.\n\n\n## R1: Q5: What are the historical tweet patterns for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the holiday season in previous years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical tweet patterns of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the holiday season. To provide a useful answer, I would recommend looking at historical data from Twitter analytics or third-party tools that track tweet frequency and patterns for these accounts. Typically, Elon Musk is known for his high volume of tweets, often engaging with followers and discussing various topics, including technology and business. The New York Times and The Economist, on the other hand, tend to have more structured and scheduled tweet patterns, focusing on news and analysis.\n\nFor a more accurate prediction, it would be beneficial to analyze past data from the same period in previous years to identify any trends or changes in their tweeting behavior during the holiday season. This could involve looking at the number of tweets sent by each account in the last few years during the same 10-day period.\n\n\n\n## R1: B1: Over the past 3 years, how often has Elon Musk tweeted more than The New York Times and The Economist during the holiday season (December 21-30)?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results provided, there is no direct information available regarding the specific number of tweets Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist have sent during the holiday season (December 21-30) over the past three years. The search results primarily contain individual tweets and discussions that do not provide comprehensive data on tweet counts for these entities during the specified period.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access historical Twitter data or analytics that track the tweet activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist during the holiday seasons of the past three years. This data is not available in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R1: B2: Over the past 3 years, how often has The New York Times tweeted more than The Economist and Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30)?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on the number of tweets sent by The New York Times, The Economist, or Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30) over the past three years. Therefore, I cannot directly answer how often The New York Times has tweeted more than The Economist and Elon Musk during this period. \n\nTo address this question, you would need to access historical Twitter data or analytics tools that track tweet volumes for these accounts over the specified time frame. This data is typically available through platforms like Twitter's API or third-party social media analytics services.\n\n\n## R1: B3: Over the past 3 years, how often has The Economist tweeted more than The New York Times and Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30)?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the tweeting activity of The Economist, The New York Times, or Elon Musk during the holiday season (December 21-30) over the past three years. Therefore, I cannot directly answer the question based on the available data. However, I can suggest a general approach to finding this information:\n\n1. **Twitter Analytics**: Accessing Twitter's analytics tools or third-party services like Social Blade or Tweet Binder could provide historical data on tweet counts for specific accounts during the specified period.\n\n2. **Manual Review**: Manually reviewing the Twitter timelines of The Economist, The New York Times, and Elon Musk for the specified dates in previous years could help determine their tweeting frequency.\n\n3. **Media Reports**: Checking media reports or articles that might have analyzed or mentioned the tweeting habits of these entities during the holiday season could provide insights.\n\nIf you have access to these tools or resources, they could help you gather the necessary data to make a more informed prediction.\n\n\n## R1: B4: Over the past year, how often has Elon Musk tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period over the past year. However, they do offer some context about general Twitter usage patterns and activity levels post-Musk's acquisition of Twitter. For instance, there has been a noticeable decline in the average number of tweets per month by the most active users following Musk's acquisition, with a 25% decrease in tweet volume \\[[4](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/17/how-us-adults-on-twitter-use-the-site-in-the-elon-musk-era/#:~:text=These%20users%E2%80%99%20average%20number%20of,of%20tweeters%20since%20the%20acquisition.)\\]\\[[7](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/17/how-us-adults-on-twitter-use-the-site-in-the-elon-musk-era/#:~:text=And%20a%20quarter%20of%20these,the%20site%20in%20October%202022.)\\]. This suggests a potential reduction in overall tweeting activity, which might indirectly affect Musk's tweeting frequency as well.\n\nTo obtain precise data on Musk's tweeting frequency, one would need to access his Twitter account's activity logs or use a Twitter analytics tool that tracks his tweet history over the specified period. Unfortunately, such specific data is not available in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R1: B5: Over the past year, how often has The New York Times tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain any information regarding the frequency of tweets by The New York Times over the past year. Therefore, I am unable to directly answer the question based on the given data. To accurately determine how often The New York Times has tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period, I recommend checking their official Twitter account or using a social media analytics tool that tracks their tweet frequency over the specified timeframe.\n\n\n\n## R2: Q1: What has been the recent tweeting activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist in the past month according to Social Blade?\nAnswer:\nError in generating answer\n\n\n## R2: Q2: Has there been any recent news or events involving Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist that might influence their tweeting activity during the specified period?\nAnswer:\nRecent events involving Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist could potentially influence their tweeting activity during the specified period. Elon Musk has been actively involved in political engagements, as he is part of a group of influential Silicon Valley billionaires who have been supporting Donald Trump's transition after endorsing him in the campaign \\[[2](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/14/technology/trump-tech-amazon-meta-openai.html#:~:text=Tim%20Cook%20%2C%20Apple%E2%80%99s%20chief,endorsing%20him%20in%20the%20campaign.)\\]. This involvement might lead to increased tweeting activity from Musk, especially if he continues to engage in political discussions or announcements related to these events.\n\nOn the other hand, The New York Times has been covering significant political events, such as Donald Trump's meetings with tech executives and his first news conference since the election \\[[4](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/briefing/trump-news-conference-germany-government-collapse.html#:~:text=When%20we%20have%20confirmed%20access%2C,relished%20seizing%20the%20world%E2%80%99s%20attention.)\\]. This focus on high-profile political coverage could lead to an increase in their tweeting activity as they report on these developments. However, there is no specific information about The Economist's recent activities that might influence their tweeting frequency during this period.\n\n\n## R2: Q3: What are the historical tweeting patterns and averages for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist over similar 10-day periods in past years?\nAnswer:\nTo assess the historical tweeting patterns of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist over similar 10-day periods, we can look at recent activity as a proxy. Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-engagement tweets. For instance, between December 9 and December 15, 2024, Musk tweeted multiple times, with some tweets receiving significant engagement, such as one on December 15 with over 179,000 likes and 12,174 retweets \\[[13](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1868098574145265777#:~:text=%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20ARMY%2DNAVY%20%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%20https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FAEVHGP5v15%7C%20created_at%3A,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20und)\\]. This suggests a high volume of tweets and interactions.\n\nIn contrast, The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns, focusing on news updates and articles. However, specific data for their tweet counts over a similar period is not provided in the search results. Historically, major news outlets like these tend to tweet several times a day, but not at the same volume or engagement level as a high-profile individual like Musk.\n\nGiven this information, it is likely that Elon Musk will have a higher tweet count and engagement over a 10-day period compared to The New York Times and The Economist, based on his recent activity and historical patterns.\n\n\n## R2: Q4: Have Elon Musk or the organizations (The New York Times, The Economist) made any public statements regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results provided, there are no specific public statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their social media activity plans for the end of December 2024. The results primarily focus on general social media usage and the presence of news influencers on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) but do not include any direct statements or plans from the entities in question about their tweeting activity during the specified period. \n\nFor instance, a Pew Research study highlights that a significant portion of news influencers are active on X, with 85% having accounts there \\[[1](https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2024/11/18/how-we-created-a-list-of-popular-news-influencers-and-where-they-post/#:~:text=For%20more%20information%2C%20refer%20to,X%2C%20formerly%20known%20as%20Twitter.)\\]. However, this does not directly address the specific social media strategies or plans of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist for the end of December 2024.\n\n\n## R2: Q5: Are there any known upcoming events or news cycles in the specified 10-day period that might trigger increased tweeting from any of the three accounts?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there are no specific upcoming events or news cycles mentioned that would directly trigger increased tweeting from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the specified 10-day period from December 21-December 30, 2024. The results primarily focus on general information about The New York Times' goals and operations, and unrelated events like RNG Day and Brazzeltag [1-15].\n\nHowever, it is worth noting that The New York Times is actively working towards reaching 10 million subscribers by 2025 and is focused on transforming into a world-class technology and product company \\[[4](https://dv.nytimes.com#:~:text=Times%20journalism%20is%20in%20amazing,world%2Dclass%20technology%20and%20product%20company.)\\]\\[[5](https://dv.nytimes.com#:~:text=Our%20journalists%20report%20from%20the,field%E2%80%99s%20most%20creative%2C%20distinguished%20technologists.)\\]. This ongoing effort might lead to increased activity on their social media platforms, including Twitter, as they push for more engagement and reach. Additionally, Elon Musk is known for his unpredictable tweeting habits, often influenced by developments in his various business ventures, though no specific events are highlighted in the search results.\n\n\n\n## R2: B1: How often does Elon Musk tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist over a 10-day period based on historical data?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there is no direct data available regarding the frequency of Elon Musk tweeting more than The New York Times and The Economist over a 10-day period. However, we can infer some insights from the general activity on Twitter.\n\nElon Musk is known for his high engagement on Twitter, often tweeting multiple times a day. For instance, a tweet from October 2024 shows significant engagement with 28,454 favorites and 2,921 retweets, indicating active participation on the platform \\[[2](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1844904681585377647#:~:text=For%20my%20time%2Dbased%20predictions%2C%20I,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. In contrast, there is no specific data on the New York Times' or The Economist's tweet frequency in the search results. However, given that these are major media outlets, they likely tweet multiple times daily to share news and updates.\n\nTo make a more informed prediction, historical data on the average number of tweets per day from each account would be necessary. Without this data, it is challenging to accurately determine how often Elon Musk tweets more than these media outlets over a 10-day period.\n\n\n## R2: B2: How often has The New York Times tweeted more than 50 times over a 10-day period in the last year?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the frequency of The New York Times tweeting more than 50 times over a 10-day period in the last year. The results primarily focus on website traffic and unrelated data points from The New York Times. To accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access Twitter analytics or a similar tool that tracks the tweet frequency of The New York Times over the specified period. Unfortunately, this information is not available in the current search results.\n\n\n## R2: B3: How often has The Economist tweeted more than 30 times over a 10-day period in the last year?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific information on how often The Economist has tweeted more than 30 times over a 10-day period in the last year. The results include various tweets from The Economist and other users, but none of them directly address the frequency of The Economist's tweeting activity over specific periods.\n\nTo accurately determine how often The Economist has tweeted more than 30 times over a 10-day period, you would need to analyze their Twitter account's activity using a tool that tracks tweet frequency or manually review their tweet history over the past year. Unfortunately, this specific data is not available in the provided search results.\n\n\n## R2: B4: Over the past year, how often has Elon Musk tweeted more than 100 times in any given 10-day period?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than 100 times in any given 10-day period over the past year. The results primarily focus on Musk's influence on the platform X (formerly Twitter) and his interactions with certain accounts, but they do not provide quantitative data on his tweeting frequency.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access a database or analysis that tracks Musk's tweet frequency over the specified period. This could potentially be found through platforms like SocialBlade or other social media analytics tools that monitor user activity on X. Unfortunately, the current search results do not provide this specific information.\n\n\n## R2: B5: How often have significant political events resulted in increased tweeting activity from Elon Musk in the past year?\nAnswer:\nIn the past year, Elon Musk has shown a pattern of increased tweeting activity in response to significant political events. For instance, on November 15, 2024, Musk tweeted about spending time with Donald Trump and Javier Milei, which garnered substantial engagement with over 342,000 favorites and 27,659 retweets \\[[15](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1857456159759687980#:~:text=Last%20night%20with%20%40realDonaldTrump%20%26amp%3B,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This suggests that Musk's tweeting activity spikes around politically charged events or figures. Additionally, on March 16, 2024, Musk tweeted about the potential for a \"red wave\" in the upcoming elections, which also received significant interaction with 57,290 favorites and 15,799 retweets \\[[3](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1768819343628947703#:~:text=%40anammostarac%20There%20is%20either%20a,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. These examples indicate that Musk tends to tweet more frequently and with higher engagement during politically significant times, which could suggest a potential increase in his tweeting activity during the specified period if similar events occur.\n\n\n\n## R3: Q1: What are the recent tweet patterns of Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist in the last month?\nAnswer:\nIn the last month, Elon Musk has been quite active on Twitter, with multiple tweets on various topics. For instance, on December 10, 2024, he tweeted about a prediction, which garnered significant engagement with 22,522 favorites and 2,736 retweets \\[[2](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1866366196146442586#:~:text=The%20crazy%20thing%20is%20that,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. On December 12, 2024, he tweeted about AI models, receiving 19,543 favorites and 1,889 retweets \\[[3](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1867067649471177056#:~:text=The%20truth%2C%20the%20whole%20truth,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This pattern suggests that Musk is consistently tweeting and engaging with his audience.\n\nIn contrast, The New York Times' Twitter activity appears to be less frequent and less engaging. For example, a tweet from December 3, 2024, had only 5 favorites and 2 retweets \\[[1](https://twitter.com/nyttypos/status/1863951483676373002#:~:text=%40nytimes%20You%20have%20a%20paragraph,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. Similarly, other tweets from their account, such as those on December 7 and December 14, 2024, had minimal engagement, with some tweets having no retweets or favorites \\[[10](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1865400485919764955#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FYs8ew9irfU%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2007,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[11](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867999803533095074#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FPMEqMAFs3g%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[12](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867989994343665813#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FiD2OQ5eLzQ%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\]\\[[13](https://twitter.com/nyt_diff/status/1867969622265270725#:~:text=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FcpLfjzhGmv%7C%20created_at%3A%20Sat%20Dec%2014,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20zxx)\\].\n\nUnfortunately, there is no specific data available for The Economist's Twitter activity in the provided search results. However, based on the available data, Elon Musk's recent tweet patterns suggest he is more active and engaging on Twitter compared to The New York Times. This could indicate a higher likelihood of Musk sending out more tweets in the specified period.\n\n\n## R3: Q2: Have there been any statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their upcoming posting activity on X during the holiday period?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there are no specific statements from Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist regarding their upcoming posting activity on X during the holiday period from December 21 to December 30, 2024. The search results primarily include general tweets from Elon Musk and other unrelated content, but none address their posting plans for the specified period.\n\n\n## R3: Q3: What are the average daily tweet counts for Elon Musk, The New York Times, and The Economist over the last three months?\nAnswer:\nBased on the information available, the average daily tweet counts for the entities in question over the last three months are as follows:\n\n- **Elon Musk**: There is no specific data in the search results regarding Elon Musk's average daily tweet count over the last three months. However, given his active presence on Twitter, it is reasonable to assume he tweets multiple times a day, though exact figures would require further research or direct data from his Twitter account.\n\n- **The New York Times**: The New York Times has been publishing an average of 57 articles per day over the past 30 days, as mentioned in a tweet \\[[12](https://twitter.com/JohnArnoldFndtn/status/1854325150340038953#:~:text=That%27s%20an%20average%20of%2057,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]. This figure does not directly translate to tweets, but it provides a sense of their content output, which is likely mirrored in their social media activity.\n\n- **The Economist**: There is no specific data in the search results regarding The Economist's average daily tweet count over the last three months. Like The New York Times, The Economist is a major publication likely to have a consistent and frequent presence on Twitter, but exact figures would require further research or direct data from their Twitter account.\n\nFor a more precise prediction, direct access to Twitter analytics for these accounts would be necessary.\n\n\n## R3: Q4: Are there any significant events or news anticipated between December 21-December 30, 2024, that might affect the tweet frequency of these accounts?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there are no significant events or news specifically anticipated between December 21-December 30, 2024, that might directly affect the tweet frequency of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist. The search results primarily focus on unrelated topics such as the LessWrong Annual Review, One Piece Card Game events, and RNG Day, none of which are likely to impact the tweeting behavior of these accounts during the specified period.\n\nHowever, it is important to consider that unforeseen events or breaking news could always arise, potentially influencing the tweet frequency of these accounts. For instance, Elon Musk is known for tweeting about SpaceX launches, Tesla updates, or other personal and business-related matters, which could occur unexpectedly. Similarly, The New York Times and The Economist might increase their tweet frequency in response to major global news events. Therefore, while no specific events are currently identified, the dynamic nature of news and social media should be taken into account.\n\n\n## R3: Q5: What are the historical trends in tweet activity for each of these accounts during the holiday season in previous years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the historical tweet activity of Elon Musk, The New York Times, or The Economist during the holiday season in previous years. To provide a useful answer, I recommend considering the following general trends and insights based on historical data and typical behavior:\n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Historically, Elon Musk is known for his high activity on Twitter, often tweeting multiple times a day. His tweet frequency can vary significantly based on current events, his business activities, and personal interests. During holiday seasons, his activity might decrease slightly as he engages in personal time, but he often tweets about ongoing projects or personal reflections.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: As a major news organization, The New York Times maintains a consistent presence on Twitter, with frequent updates and news coverage. During the holiday season, their activity might focus on holiday-related news, year-end reviews, and ongoing global events. Their tweet frequency is likely to remain steady, reflecting their commitment to providing continuous news coverage.\n\n3. **The Economist**: Known for its analytical and in-depth content, The Economist typically tweets less frequently than a daily news outlet like The New York Times. During the holiday season, they might focus on year-end analyses and forecasts for the upcoming year. Their tweet frequency might be slightly lower compared to other times of the year, but they maintain a consistent presence.\n\nFor precise historical data, it would be beneficial to analyze the Twitter accounts of these entities using tools like Twitter analytics or third-party services that track social media activity over time.\n\n\n\n## R3: B1: How often has Elon Musk tweeted more than 10 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nBased on the search results, there is no direct information available about the frequency of Elon Musk tweeting more than 10 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season over the last five years. However, there are several tweets from Elon Musk and discussions involving him around the holiday season in December 2022, which suggest that he was active on Twitter during that time \\[[2](https://twitter.com/LimitingThe/status/1606053354785984538#:~:text=Great%20Twitter%20spaces%20with%20%40elonmusk,of%20cognitive%20load%20for%20Elon.)\\]\\[[4](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1605995133119258627#:~:text=This%20is%20normal%20for%20video.,%7C%20lang%3A%20en%20%40elonmusk%20.)\\]\\[[8](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1606345442345619456#:~:text=Maybe%20call%20it%20%22Favorite%22%20again,are%20a%20very%20small%20%25.)\\]. This implies that he does engage with the platform during the holiday season, but without specific data on the number of tweets, it's not possible to definitively answer the question about his tweeting frequency exceeding 10 times in a 10-day period.\n\nFor a more accurate assessment, a detailed analysis of Elon Musk's Twitter activity logs during the specified periods over the past five years would be necessary.\n\n\n## R3: B2: How often has The New York Times tweeted more than 50 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often The New York Times has tweeted more than 50 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season over the last five years. However, the results do include some tweets from The New York Times around the holiday season, such as tweets from December 21, 2022, and December 21, 2023 \\[[1](https://twitter.com/heavyredaction/status/1605414819275739136#:~:text=%40nytimes%20is%20simply%20glamorizing%20whining.%7C,retweeted%3A%20False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en)\\]\\[[3](https://twitter.com/nyttypos/status/1737838465671414069#:~:text=%40nytimes%20%E2%80%9Cthree%20time%E2%80%9D%20is%20a,False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en%20%3C%7Cend)\\]\\[[5](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1737923418345865261#:~:text=2023%20was%20a%20big%20year,False%20%7C%20lang%3A%20en%20%3C%7Cendo)\\]. Unfortunately, these snippets do not provide a comprehensive count of tweets over a 10-day period, nor do they offer historical data for the past five years.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, one would need access to a comprehensive dataset or analytics tool that tracks the frequency of tweets from The New York Times over specified periods. This information might be available through Twitter's API or third-party social media analytics platforms.\n\n\n## R3: B3: How often has The Economist tweeted more than 20 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about The Economist's tweeting frequency during the holiday season over the past five years. To accurately answer the question, additional data sources or direct access to The Economist's Twitter account analytics would be necessary. However, based on general knowledge, The Economist is known for maintaining a consistent social media presence, often tweeting multiple times a day, which suggests that it is likely they have tweeted more than 20 times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in recent years. For precise statistics, a review of their Twitter activity logs or a third-party analytics tool would be required.\n\n\n## R3: B4: How often has Elon Musk tweeted more than The New York Times in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results do not provide specific data on how often Elon Musk has tweeted more than The New York Times during the holiday season over the past five years. However, they do indicate that Elon Musk has been a prolific user of Twitter, especially after acquiring the platform. His tweet frequency has increased significantly post-acquisition, with a notable rise in engagement metrics such as quote tweets and replies \\[[1](https://www.axios.com/2022/12/06/musk-tweets-engagement-data#:~:text=It%20compares%20engagement%20during%20the,January%202020%20meme%20about%20smartphones.)\\]\\[[2](https://www.axios.com/2022/12/06/musk-tweets-engagement-data#:~:text=The%20ratio%20of%20likes%20to,with%20Musk%E2%80%99s%20tweets%20over%20time.)\\]\\[[5](https://www.statswithsasa.com/2022/12/17/elon-musk-tweets-too-much/#:~:text=Click%20here%20for%20a%20more,at%20the%20beginning%20of%202022.)\\]. This suggests that Musk's tweeting activity has been substantial, potentially surpassing that of major media outlets like The New York Times during certain periods.\n\nTo provide a more precise answer, additional data specifically comparing the tweet counts of Elon Musk and The New York Times during the holiday seasons of the past five years would be necessary.\n\n\n## R3: B5: How often has The New York Times tweeted more than The Economist in a 10-day period during the holiday season in the last 5 years?\nAnswer:\nThe search results provided do not contain specific information about the frequency with which The New York Times has tweeted more than The Economist during the holiday season over the past five years. The results primarily focus on engagement metrics and general content from The New York Times, but do not provide comparative data on tweet volumes between The New York Times and The Economist.\n\nTo accurately answer the question, it would be necessary to access historical Twitter data or analytics that specifically compare the tweet counts of The New York Times and The Economist during the specified periods. This information might be available through social media analytics platforms or by directly analyzing the Twitter accounts of both organizations over the past five holiday seasons.\n\n\n\n\n# FORECASTS\n\n## R1: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known**: The specified period for tweet activity is from December 21 to December 30, 2024. Today is December 17, 2024, so there are 13 days left until the period ends and the outcome is known.\n\n(b) **Status quo outcome if nothing changed**: Based on the recent activity and typical tweeting patterns, Elon Musk appears to be the most active on X (formerly Twitter). He has been frequently tweeting, and his engagement levels suggest continued activity. Therefore, if current patterns persist, Elon Musk is likely to send out more tweets than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) **Scenario resulting in an unexpected outcome**: An unexpected outcome might occur if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media during the holiday season, reducing his tweet frequency significantly. Alternatively, a major news event could drive The New York Times or The Economist to increase their tweet output substantially, surpassing Musk\u2019s activity. Additionally, if The Economist implements a new social media strategy or campaign during this period, it might lead to a surge in their tweet frequency.\n\n**Rationale**: \n1. **Elon Musk's Activity**: Musk is known for his high engagement on social media, often tweeting multiple times a day. His recent activity suggests a high likelihood of continued frequent tweeting. Given his unpredictable nature, he might increase his activity, especially if involved in discussions or if any significant events occur related to his businesses.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: While The New York Times has a steady stream of tweets, their recent activity appears less frequent than Musk\u2019s. They may have a structured approach to tweeting, which could be less reactive unless driven by major news events.\n\n3. **The Economist**: Although there is limited specific data about The Economist\u2019s recent tweet frequency, they are generally consistent in their social media presence. However, without evidence of significant recent activity or a strategic push, they are less likely to surpass Musk\u2019s tweeting frequency.\n\nTaking into account the status quo and the potential for unexpected developments, I will assign probabilities with a bias towards the status quo but allowing for the possibility of change.\n\n**Final Probabilities**:\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 60%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) **Time Left Until Outcome is Known**: There are only a few days left until the 10-day period from December 21 to December 30, 2024, commences. The outcome will be determined shortly after this period, once the tweet counts are accessed via Social Blade.\n\n(b) **Status Quo Outcome if Nothing Changed**: Based on the current information, Elon Musk appears to be the most active tweeter among the three accounts. His frequent and often spontaneous tweeting habits suggest that he is likely to tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) **Scenario Resulting in an Unexpected Outcome**: An unexpected outcome could occur if there are significant news events or a strategic shift in social media engagement by The New York Times or The Economist during the period. For instance, if there are major global or national events that The New York Times or The Economist decide to cover extensively on social media, they may significantly increase their tweet frequency. Another scenario could involve Elon Musk taking a break from social media or focusing on other platforms, reducing his tweet volume unexpectedly.\n\n### Rationale:\n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Historically, Elon Musk is known for his high engagement and frequent use of Twitter. He often tweets multiple times a day, discussing various topics ranging from technology to personal opinions. This behavior is likely to continue unless there are unforeseen circumstances that limit his social media usage.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: While The New York Times is a major news outlet that regularly tweets updates, its recent patterns suggest less frequent tweeting compared to Elon Musk. However, the holiday season could bring significant newsworthy events or retrospectives that might increase their tweet volume.\n\n3. **The Economist**: Without specific recent data on The Economist's tweet frequency, predicting their activity is more challenging. However, their focus on global news and analysis might lead to increased activity if there are significant developments during the period.\n\nGiven these considerations and the emphasis on maintaining a balanced view to account for unexpected shifts, the probabilities are as follows:\n\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n### (a) Time Remaining Until Outcome is Known\nThere are approximately 13 days until December 30, 2024, when the tweet frequencies will be assessed for the period from December 21 to December 30, 2024.\n\n### (b) Status Quo Outcome if Nothing Changed\nBased on the recent tweet frequencies, Elon Musk has been more active than The New York Times and The Economist. His pattern of frequent tweeting, especially in short time spans, suggests that he is likely to continue this trend in the upcoming period. Therefore, the status quo outcome is that Elon Musk will send out more tweets than the other two entities.\n\n### (c) Scenario Resulting in an Unexpected Outcome\nAn unexpected outcome could occur if a significant news event or internal decision affects the tweeting patterns of The New York Times or The Economist. For example, if there are major global events that require extensive coverage, both news organizations might increase their tweet output significantly to keep their audiences informed. Similarly, if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media or is engaged in activities that limit his online presence, his tweet frequency might drop, allowing one of the news organizations to surpass him in tweet volume.\n\n### Rationale\n1. **Elon Musk's Consistent Activity**: Historically, Elon Musk has maintained a high level of activity on social media platforms. His recent pattern of tweeting multiple times within a few days indicates that he is likely to continue this behavior unless external factors intervene.\n\n2. **The New York Times and The Economist**: Both organizations are known for their structured and regular tweeting patterns, primarily focused on disseminating news articles and analyses. However, they typically do not match the high engagement level of Elon Musk's personal account. \n\n3. **Influence of Unexpected Events**: While the status quo strongly favors Elon Musk, there is always the potential for unexpected events to disrupt the usual patterns. For instance, a major news event could lead to both The New York Times and The Economist increasing their tweet frequency to provide real-time updates.\n\n4. **Historical Patterns**: While specific historical data during the holiday season is unavailable, general trends suggest that Elon Musk is more likely to have a higher tweet frequency compared to the news organizations.\n\n### Final Probabilities\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is approximately 13 days, as the period in question is December 21-30, 2024, and today is December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, if nothing changes, appears to be that Elon Musk will tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period. Historically, Elon Musk has been a prolific tweeter and tends to engage frequently on social media.\n\n(c) A scenario that could result in an unexpected outcome might involve a significant news event or a strategic change by The New York Times or The Economist that leads to a surge in their tweet frequency. For example, an unexpected global event or a major announcement from either publication could increase their tweet activity substantially. Additionally, if Elon Musk were to take a break from social media or reduce his activity for some reason, this could alter the expected outcome.\n\nGiven these considerations, my final probabilities for the options are:\n\n- Option A: Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65%\n- Option B: The NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\n- Option C: The Economist: @TheEconomist: 15%\n\n\n## R1: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n### Analysis:\n\n(a) **Time Left Until the Outcome is Known**:\nThe period in question is from December 21 to December 30, 2024. Today is December 17, 2024, so there are 4 days remaining until the observation period begins and 13 days until the conclusion of that period.\n\n(b) **Status Quo Outcome**:\nBased on the recent tweeting activity and historical patterns, Elon Musk is the most likely to tweet the most during the specified period. He is known for frequent and spontaneous tweeting, often engaging with current events or discussions. The New York Times and The Economist tend to have more structured and scheduled tweeting patterns focused on news and analysis, which may not match Musk's volume.\n\n(c) **Scenario for an Unexpected Outcome**:\nAn unexpected outcome could occur if a major news event happens, prompting The New York Times or The Economist to significantly increase their tweet volume to cover the event. Additionally, if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media or is occupied with other commitments, his tweet frequency could decrease, allowing one of the publications to surpass him in tweet volume.\n\n### Rationale:\n\n1. **Elon Musk (@elonmusk)**:\n- Known for frequent and spontaneous tweeting.\n- Recent activity suggests a high likelihood of continued frequent tweeting.\n- Personal engagement and the potential for ongoing discussions make him the most likely to tweet the most.\n\n2. **The New York Times (@nytimes)**:\n- Typically maintains a steady stream of tweets focused on news updates.\n- Recent engagement metrics are low, indicating potentially lower volume.\n- Unless there is major news, they are less likely to surpass Musk.\n\n3. **The Economist (@TheEconomist)**:\n- Generally tweets regularly but lacks specific data on recent frequency.\n- Their social media strategy suggests a possible increase in output, but it may not be enough to surpass Musk or The New York Times without a significant news event.\n\nGiven these considerations, the status quo outcome seems likely, with Elon Musk tweeting the most. However, due to the potential for unexpected events or changes in behavior, it is prudent to allocate some probability to the other options.\n\n### Final Probabilities:\n\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) There are 4 days left until the 10-day period from December 21 to December 30, 2024, begins. The outcome will be known shortly after December 30, 2024, when the data from Social Blade is accessed.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, based on historical and recent tweeting patterns, indicates that Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will likely tweet more than The New York Times (@nytimes) and The Economist (@TheEconomist). Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-volume tweeting, often influenced by current events, particularly those of a political nature.\n\n(c) An unexpected outcome could occur if The New York Times or The Economist significantly increases their tweeting activity during this period due to a major news event or strategic social media campaign. For example, if a significant global event occurs that requires extensive coverage, both media outlets might ramp up their tweeting frequency to provide real-time updates and analyses. Alternatively, a technical issue or decision by Elon Musk to take a break from social media could reduce his tweeting frequency unexpectedly.\n\nConsidering these factors, the following probabilities are assigned:\n\nOption_A: Probability_A = 0.70 (Elon Musk: @elonmusk)\nOption_B: Probability_B = 0.20 (The NY Times: @nytimes)\nOption_C: Probability_C = 0.10 (The Economist: @TheEconomist)\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) There are 4 days left until the 10-day period begins, and an additional 10 days until the period ends, so a total of 14 days until the outcome is known.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, based on historical patterns and recent activity, is that Elon Musk will send out more tweets than The New York Times and The Economist. Musk is known for his frequent tweeting, often multiple times a day, and his engagement tends to spike around significant events. The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns.\n\n(c) An unexpected outcome could occur if there is a significant news event or development that causes The New York Times or The Economist to increase their tweeting activity substantially. For example, a major global event or a significant development in their respective industries might prompt these outlets to tweet more frequently to provide continuous updates and analysis.\n\nTaking all of this into account, I will assign probabilities as follows:\n\nElon Musk: 70% - Given his historical tweeting behavior and the lack of any specific evidence suggesting a change, he is the most likely to tweet the most during the period.\n\nThe NY Times: 20% - As a major news outlet, there's a chance they could ramp up their activity if there are significant news events, although this is less likely than Elon Musk's high activity.\n\nThe Economist: 10% - Their tweeting pattern is generally less frequent than the other two, and without specific events to suggest increased activity, they are the least likely to tweet the most.\n\nFinal probabilities:\nElon Musk: @elonmusk: 70%\nThe NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\nThe Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) **Time left until the outcome is known:** The outcome will be known after the 10-day period from December 21 to December 30, 2024, which is in approximately 13 days from today, December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) **Status quo outcome if nothing changed:** Historically, Elon Musk is known for his frequent and high-volume tweeting habits. Given his recent involvement in political events and the general pattern of his social media activity, it is likely that he will continue this trend. The New York Times and The Economist typically have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns compared to Musk. Therefore, based on the status quo, Elon Musk is expected to tweet more than The New York Times and The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) **Scenario that results in an unexpected outcome:** An unexpected outcome could occur if there is a major news event or breaking story that significantly affects The New York Times or The Economist. For instance, if there is a major political or global event that requires constant updates and coverage, these media organizations might increase their tweeting frequency to provide real-time news updates. Additionally, technical issues, policy changes on X, or a decision by Musk to take a break from social media could reduce his tweeting frequency, leading to an unexpected outcome where The New York Times or The Economist tweets more.\n\n**Final probabilities:**\nElon Musk: @elonmusk: 65%\nThe NY Times: @nytimes: 25%\nThe Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 4 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known: Since today is December 17, 2024, the outcome will be known after December 30, 2024, when the tweet counts for the 10-day period from December 21-30 are accessible via Social Blade.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome if nothing changed: Historically, Elon Musk is known for his high volume of tweets, often tweeting multiple times a day. Given the absence of any significant changes to his tweeting habits or external factors that might reduce his activity, the status quo outcome would be that Elon Musk tweets more frequently than The New York Times or The Economist during the specified period.\n\n(c) A description of a scenario that results in an unexpected outcome: An unexpected outcome could occur if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media or reduce his tweeting frequency during the holiday season for personal reasons or due to unforeseen circumstances. At the same time, The New York Times or The Economist might increase their tweeting activity significantly due to major news events or a strategic push for more engagement, leading them to surpass Elon Musk's tweet count.\n\nRationale:\n1. Historically, Elon Musk's tweeting activity is high and often surpasses that of media organizations like The New York Times and The Economist, who generally have more structured and less frequent tweeting patterns.\n2. The absence of specific plans from The New York Times or The Economist to significantly increase their tweet volume during the specified period supports the likelihood of the status quo outcome.\n3. While unexpected events could alter this pattern, such as a major news story requiring extensive coverage or a change in Musk's tweeting behavior, these are less likely scenarios.\n\nFinal probabilities:\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R2: Forecaster 5 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome of the question is known is approximately 13 days, as the tweets from December 21 to December 30, 2024, will be summed and reported by Social Blade shortly thereafter.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, if nothing changed, would likely be that Elon Musk tweets the most among the three options. Historically, Musk has been known for his frequent and high-engagement tweeting activity, often outpacing more structured and less frequent posts from media outlets like The New York Times and The Economist.\n\n(c) An unexpected scenario could involve a significant global or political event that drastically increases the tweeting activity of The New York Times or The Economist. For instance, a major international crisis or breaking news story could lead these organizations to ramp up their tweeting frequency to provide continuous updates. Alternatively, if Musk were to take a hiatus from social media for personal reasons or due to business obligations, this could also alter the expected outcome.\n\nGiven the information, my rationale is that Elon Musk's tweeting habits are typically robust and frequent, especially given his involvement in various high-profile activities and his tendency to engage with controversial topics. While The New York Times and The Economist also tweet regularly, they do so at a more moderated pace. However, I will allow for some probability that unexpected events could lead to a shift in tweeting behavior for the media outlets.\n\nFinal probabilities:\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 70%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 20%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 1 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is 13 days, as the period of interest is from December 21 to December 30, 2024, and today is December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome if nothing changed would likely be that Elon Musk (@elonmusk) sends out the most tweets during the specified period. This conclusion is drawn from his recent pattern of frequent tweeting and high engagement compared to The New York Times (@nytimes) and The Economist (@TheEconomist). Elon Musk is known for being a highly active and unpredictable user on X (formerly Twitter), often tweeting multiple times per day.\n\n(c) A scenario that could result in an unexpected outcome might be a significant news event or series of events that require extensive coverage by The New York Times or The Economist, thereby increasing their tweet frequencies significantly. For instance, a major global political event, economic crisis, or other breaking news could prompt these media organizations to increase their output on social media to provide timely updates and analyses. Additionally, if Elon Musk decides to take a break from social media during the holidays or if he is occupied with other engagements, his tweet frequency might decrease unexpectedly.\n\nGiven these considerations and the tendency for the world to change slowly, I will assign probabilities that reflect the current status quo while accounting for the possibility of unexpected events:\n\nElon Musk: @elonmusk: 0.60\nThe NY Times: @nytimes: 0.30\nThe Economist: @TheEconomist: 0.10\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 2 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome is known is 13 days, as the period in question is from December 21 to December 30, 2024, and today is December 17, 2024.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome, if nothing changed, is that Elon Musk will send out more tweets than The New York Times and The Economist. This is based on recent tweet patterns indicating that Elon Musk is more active on Twitter compared to The New York Times, which has shown less frequent and less engaging activity. There is no specific data for The Economist, but it is implied that their tweet frequency is consistent but likely lower than Musk's.\n\n(c) A scenario that results in an unexpected outcome could involve The New York Times or The Economist increasing their tweet frequency significantly during the specified period. This could occur if there is a major global event or breaking news that requires continuous updates, prompting the news organizations to tweet more frequently than usual. Additionally, Elon Musk could unexpectedly reduce his tweeting activity due to personal reasons or business commitments, which might make it less likely for him to maintain his usual high tweet volume.\n\nIn considering these points:\n\n1. **Elon Musk** has a history of being very active on Twitter and is known for his high engagement, especially after acquiring the platform. Given his unpredictable nature, he could either increase his activity unexpectedly or take a break, but the former is more consistent with his past behavior.\n\n2. **The New York Times** may have a steady stream of tweets, especially if there are significant news events, but the data suggests their tweet frequency is generally less than Musk's.\n\n3. **The Economist** tends to have a lower volume of tweets compared to a daily news outlet. Without specific data, it's reasonable to assume their activity won't surpass Musk's unless there is a major news event or strategic decision to increase their social media presence.\n\nFinal probabilities:\n\n- **Elon Musk: @elonmusk**: 70%\n- **The NY Times: @nytimes**: 20%\n- **The Economist: @TheEconomist**: 10%\n\n\n## R3: Forecaster 3 Reasoning\n(a) The time left until the outcome to the question is known is 13 days. On December 31, 2024, the tweet counts from December 21 to December 30 will be available for analysis, and the outcome will be determined based on the Social Blade data for each account.\n\n(b) The status quo outcome if nothing changed would be that Elon Musk (@elonmusk) sends out more tweets than The New York Times (@nytimes) and The Economist (@TheEconomist) in the 10-day period. This is based on his historical pattern of high tweet activity and engagement compared to the other two accounts.\n\n(c) A scenario that results in an unexpected outcome could be a major global news event that significantly increases the tweet frequency of The New York Times or The Economist. For example, if a major political or economic event occurs during this period, these media organizations might ramp up their tweeting to provide continuous updates and analyses, potentially surpassing Elon Musk's tweet count.\n\nConsidering the historical patterns and typical behavior of each account, here is the rationale for the probabilities:\n\n1. **Elon Musk**: Known for his high activity on Twitter and personal engagement, Musk frequently tweets on a variety of topics, including his businesses and personal interests. Even though it is the holiday season, his pattern of regular tweeting suggests a high probability of him maintaining this activity level. Additionally, there are no specific indications that he plans to reduce his tweet frequency during this period.\n\n2. **The New York Times**: As a major news outlet, The New York Times maintains a steady presence on Twitter. Their tweet frequency is generally higher than that of The Economist, but typically lower than Musk's. Without any anticipated events that might drastically change their tweet volume, they are less likely to surpass Musk in tweet count during this period.\n\n3. **The Economist**: While The Economist is active on Twitter, their tweet frequency is generally lower than that of The New York Times and Elon Musk. They focus on in-depth analysis and are less likely to post as frequently during the holiday season unless there are significant events to cover.\n\nGiven these considerations, here are the final probabilities for each option:\n\n- Elon Musk: @elonmusk: 65%\n- The NY Times: @nytimes: 25%\n- The Economist: @TheEconomist: 10%\n\n", + "other_notes": null, + "price_estimate": 1.571872499999999, + "minutes_taken": 1.5952050646146139, + "forecast_info": [], + "prediction": { + "predicted_options": [ + { + "option_name": "The NY Times: @nytimes", + "probability": 0.25 + }, + { + "option_name": "The Economist: @TheEconomist", + "probability": 0.1 + }, + { + "option_name": "Elon Musk: @elonmusk", + "probability": 0.65 + } + ] + } + } + ] + } +] diff --git a/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_manager.py b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_manager.py index 2b3e4c4..5e8cdd5 100644 --- a/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_manager.py +++ b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_manager.py @@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ def get_fake_binary_questions( question = BinaryQuestion( question_text="Will TikTok be banned in the US?", id_of_post=0, + id_of_question=0, state=QuestionState.OPEN, community_prediction_at_access_time=community_prediction, ) diff --git a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_benchmarker.py similarity index 68% rename from code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py rename to code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_benchmarker.py index e954a2d..f87d366 100644 --- a/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py +++ b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_benchmarker.py @@ -10,6 +10,9 @@ TemplateBot, ) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.helpers.benchmarker import Benchmarker +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.benchmark_for_bot import ( + BenchmarkForBot, +) from forecasting_tools.util import file_manipulation @@ -33,7 +36,11 @@ async def test_file_is_made_for_benchmark(mocker: Mock) -> None: if os.path.isfile(os.path.join(absolute_path, f)) ) - await Benchmarker.run_benchmark([bot], 10) + await Benchmarker( + forecast_bots=[bot], + number_of_questions_to_use=10, + file_path_to_save_reports=file_path_to_save_reports, + ).run_benchmark() files_after = set( f @@ -48,29 +55,23 @@ async def test_file_is_made_for_benchmark(mocker: Mock) -> None: os.remove(os.path.join(absolute_path, new_file)) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("num_questions", [1, 5, 10]) async def test_each_benchmark_mode_calls_forecaster_more_time( mocker: Mock, + num_questions: int, ) -> None: - if ForecastingTestManager.quarterly_cup_is_not_active(): - pytest.skip("Quarterly cup is not active") - bot_type = TemplateBot - bot = bot_type() - + bot = TemplateBot() mock_run_forecast = ForecastingTestManager.mock_forecast_bot_run_forecast( bot_type, mocker ) - modes: list[int] = [1, 5, 10] - num_calls_for_modes = [] - for mode in modes: - score = await Benchmarker.run_benchmark([bot], mode) - assert isinstance(score, float), "The score should be a float" - - previous_calls = num_calls_for_modes[-1] if num_calls_for_modes else 0 - current_calls = mock_run_forecast.call_count - previous_calls - num_calls_for_modes.append(current_calls) - - assert ( - current_calls > previous_calls - ), "No new forecast calls were made" + benchmarks = await Benchmarker( + forecast_bots=[bot], + number_of_questions_to_use=num_questions, + ).run_benchmark() + assert isinstance(benchmarks, list) + assert all( + isinstance(benchmark, BenchmarkForBot) for benchmark in benchmarks + ) + assert mock_run_forecast.call_count == num_questions diff --git a/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_benchmark_for_bot.py b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_benchmark_for_bot.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e3f8d7 --- /dev/null +++ b/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_questions_and_reports/test_benchmark_for_bot.py @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +from code_tests.utilities_for_tests import jsonable_assertations +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.benchmark_for_bot import ( + BenchmarkForBot, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.binary_report import ( + BinaryReport, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.multiple_choice_report import ( + MultipleChoiceReport, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.numeric_report import ( + NumericReport, +) + + +def test_benchmark_for_bot() -> None: + read_path = "code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/forecasting_test_data/benchmark_object_examples.json" + temp_write_path = "temp/temp_benchmark_object_examples.json" + jsonable_assertations.assert_reading_and_printing_from_file_works( + BenchmarkForBot, + read_path, + temp_write_path, + ) + + benchmarks = BenchmarkForBot.load_json_from_file_path(read_path) + all_reports = [ + report + for benchmark in benchmarks + for report in benchmark.forecast_reports + ] + assert any(isinstance(report, NumericReport) for report in all_reports) + assert any( + isinstance(report, MultipleChoiceReport) for report in all_reports + ) + assert any(isinstance(report, BinaryReport) for report in all_reports) diff --git a/code_tests/utilities_for_tests/jsonable_assertations.py b/code_tests/utilities_for_tests/jsonable_assertations.py index 69969ae..550b100 100644 --- a/code_tests/utilities_for_tests/jsonable_assertations.py +++ b/code_tests/utilities_for_tests/jsonable_assertations.py @@ -17,9 +17,7 @@ def assert_reading_and_printing_from_file_works( # Read the data_type from the file try: objects_from_file: list[Jsonable] = ( - jsonable_class_to_test.convert_project_file_path_to_object_list( - read_path - ) + jsonable_class_to_test.load_json_from_file_path(read_path) ) except Exception as e: raise RuntimeError( @@ -46,9 +44,7 @@ def assert_reading_and_printing_from_file_works( # Read the data_type from the file try: objects_from_file: list[Jsonable] = ( - jsonable_class_to_test.convert_project_file_path_to_object_list( - temp_write_path - ) + jsonable_class_to_test.load_json_from_file_path(temp_write_path) ) except Exception as e: raise RuntimeError( diff --git a/forecasting_tools/__init__.py b/forecasting_tools/__init__.py index a99563d..a4515df 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/__init__.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/__init__.py @@ -14,6 +14,9 @@ from forecasting_tools.ai_models.resource_managers.monetary_cost_manager import ( MonetaryCostManager as MonetaryCostManager, ) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import ( + ForecastBot as ForecastBot, +) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.main_bot import ( MainBot as MainBot, ) @@ -29,6 +32,9 @@ from forecasting_tools.forecasting.helpers.smart_searcher import ( SmartSearcher as SmartSearcher, ) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.benchmark_for_bot import ( + BenchmarkForBot as BenchmarkForBot, +) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.binary_report import ( BinaryReport as BinaryReport, ) diff --git a/forecasting_tools/ai_models/model_archetypes/openai_text_model.py b/forecasting_tools/ai_models/model_archetypes/openai_text_model.py index 81c6488..0f063ec 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/ai_models/model_archetypes/openai_text_model.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/ai_models/model_archetypes/openai_text_model.py @@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ from abc import ABC from langchain_community.callbacks.openai_info import ( + TokenType, get_openai_token_cost_for_model, ) from openai import AsyncOpenAI @@ -143,10 +144,10 @@ def calculate_cost_from_tokens( self, prompt_tkns: int, completion_tkns: int ) -> float: prompt_cost = get_openai_token_cost_for_model( - self.MODEL_NAME, prompt_tkns, is_completion=False + self.MODEL_NAME, prompt_tkns, token_type=TokenType.PROMPT ) completion_cost = get_openai_token_cost_for_model( - self.MODEL_NAME, completion_tkns, is_completion=True + self.MODEL_NAME, completion_tkns, token_type=TokenType.COMPLETION ) cost = prompt_cost + completion_cost return cost diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/bot_lists.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/bot_lists.py index 5bd8d15..1b34281 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/bot_lists.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/bot_lists.py @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ ) -def get_all_bots() -> list[type[ForecastBot]]: +def get_all_bot_classes() -> list[type[ForecastBot]]: return [ MainBot, TemplateBot, diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py index df62394..d63b990 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py @@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ def get_config(self) -> dict[str, str]: return { name: str(getattr(self, name)) for name in params.keys() - if name != "self" + if name != "self" and name != "kwargs" and name != "args" } async def forecast_on_tournament( diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/main_bot.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/main_bot.py index 0fb627c..e76dd62 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/main_bot.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/forecast_bots/main_bot.py @@ -28,9 +28,11 @@ def __init__( publish_reports_to_metaculus: bool = False, folder_to_save_reports_to: str | None = None, skip_previously_forecasted_questions: bool = False, + skip_questions_that_error: bool = True, number_of_background_questions_to_ask: int = 5, number_of_base_rate_questions_to_ask: int = 5, number_of_base_rates_to_do_deep_research_on: int = 0, + **kwargs, ) -> None: super().__init__( research_reports_per_question=research_reports_per_question, @@ -38,7 +40,9 @@ def __init__( use_research_summary_to_forecast=use_research_summary_to_forecast, publish_reports_to_metaculus=publish_reports_to_metaculus, folder_to_save_reports_to=folder_to_save_reports_to, + skip_questions_that_error=skip_questions_that_error, skip_previously_forecasted_questions=skip_previously_forecasted_questions, + **kwargs, ) self.number_of_background_questions_to_ask = ( number_of_background_questions_to_ask diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py index 899f4ae..1585a9c 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/helpers/benchmarker.py @@ -3,7 +3,6 @@ from datetime import datetime import typeguard -from pydantic import BaseModel from forecasting_tools.ai_models.resource_managers.monetary_cost_manager import ( MonetaryCostManager, @@ -12,6 +11,9 @@ ForecastBot, ) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.helpers.metaculus_api import MetaculusApi +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.benchmark_for_bot import ( + BenchmarkForBot, +) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.binary_report import ( BinaryReport, ) @@ -24,22 +26,6 @@ from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.questions import ( MetaculusQuestion, ) -from forecasting_tools.util.jsonable import Jsonable - - -class BenchmarkForBot(BaseModel, Jsonable): - name: str - description: str - timestamp: datetime = datetime.now() - time_taken_in_minutes: float | None - total_cost: float | None - git_commit_hash: str - forecast_bot_config: dict[str, str] - forecast_reports: list[BinaryReport | NumericReport | MultipleChoiceReport] - - @property - def average_expected_log_score(self) -> float: - raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") class Benchmarker: @@ -69,6 +55,7 @@ def __init__( ): file_path_to_save_reports += "/" self.file_path_to_save_reports = file_path_to_save_reports + self.initialization_timestamp = datetime.now() async def run_benchmark(self) -> list[BenchmarkForBot]: @@ -107,13 +94,11 @@ async def run_benchmark(self) -> list[BenchmarkForBot]: ], ) benchmark.forecast_reports.extend(reports) - if self.file_path_to_save_reports is not None: - self._save_benchmarks_to_file( - benchmarks, self.file_path_to_save_reports - ) + self._save_benchmarks_to_file_if_configured(benchmarks) end_time = time.time() benchmark.time_taken_in_minutes = (end_time - start_time) / 60 benchmark.total_cost = cost_manager.current_usage + self._save_benchmarks_to_file_if_configured(benchmarks) return benchmarks @classmethod @@ -125,14 +110,15 @@ def _batch_questions( for i in range(0, len(questions), batch_size) ] - @classmethod - def _save_benchmarks_to_file( - cls, benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot], file_path_to_save_reports: str + def _save_benchmarks_to_file_if_configured( + self, benchmarks: list[BenchmarkForBot] ) -> None: + if self.file_path_to_save_reports is None: + return file_path_to_save_reports = ( - f"{file_path_to_save_reports}" + f"{self.file_path_to_save_reports}" f"benchmarks_" - f"{datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d_%H-%M-%S')}" + f"{self.initialization_timestamp.strftime('%Y-%m-%d_%H-%M-%S')}" f".json" ) BenchmarkForBot.save_object_list_to_file_path( diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/benchmark_for_bot.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/benchmark_for_bot.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e6b95b2 --- /dev/null +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/benchmark_for_bot.py @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +from datetime import datetime + +import typeguard +from pydantic import BaseModel + +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.binary_report import ( + BinaryReport, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.forecast_report import ( + ForecastReport, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.multiple_choice_report import ( + MultipleChoiceReport, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.questions_and_reports.numeric_report import ( + NumericReport, +) +from forecasting_tools.util.jsonable import Jsonable + + +class BenchmarkForBot(BaseModel, Jsonable): + name: str + description: str + timestamp: datetime = datetime.now() + time_taken_in_minutes: float | None + total_cost: float | None + git_commit_hash: str + forecast_bot_config: dict[str, str] + forecast_reports: list[BinaryReport | NumericReport | MultipleChoiceReport] + + @property + def average_inverse_expected_log_score(self) -> float: + reports = typeguard.check_type( + self.forecast_reports, + list[ForecastReport], + ) + return ForecastReport.calculate_average_inverse_expected_log_score( + reports + ) diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py index a6b21f4..b803d0a 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/binary_report.py @@ -68,3 +68,16 @@ def deviation_points(self) -> float | None: if self.community_prediction is None: return None return abs(self.prediction - self.community_prediction) + + @staticmethod + def calculate_average_deviation_points( + reports: list[BinaryReport], + ) -> float: + validated_deviation_points: list[float] = [] + for report in reports: + assert report.deviation_points is not None + validated_deviation_points.append(report.deviation_points) + assert validated_deviation_points + return sum(validated_deviation_points) / len( + validated_deviation_points + ) diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py index 64fb28d..1c1969e 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/forecast_report.py @@ -73,10 +73,6 @@ def inversed_expected_log_score(self) -> float | None: """ raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") - @property - def deviation_points(self) -> float | None: - raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") - @property def community_prediction(self) -> Any | None: raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") @@ -97,19 +93,6 @@ def calculate_average_inverse_expected_log_score( ) return average_deviation_score - @staticmethod - def calculate_average_deviation_points( - reports: list[ForecastReport], - ) -> float: - validated_deviation_points: list[float] = [] - for report in reports: - assert report.deviation_points is not None - validated_deviation_points.append(report.deviation_points) - assert validated_deviation_points - return sum(validated_deviation_points) / len( - validated_deviation_points - ) - @classmethod @abstractmethod async def aggregate_predictions( diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py index 6f2f4f6..68dad05 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/multiple_choice_report.py @@ -24,17 +24,6 @@ class MultipleChoiceReport(ForecastReport): @property def inversed_expected_log_score(self) -> float | None: - """ - Expected log score is evaluated to correlate closest to the baseline score - when assuming the community prediction is the true probability. - (see scripts/simulate_a_tournament.ipynb). - We invert the expected log score so it behaves like a brier score - (where it is positive and lower is better). - """ - raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") - - @property - def deviation_points(self) -> float | None: raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") @property diff --git a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/numeric_report.py b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/numeric_report.py index 09775fd..c4a6623 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/numeric_report.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/forecasting/questions_and_reports/numeric_report.py @@ -35,6 +35,14 @@ class NumericDistribution(BaseModel): lower_bound: float zero_point: float | None + @property + def inversed_expected_log_score(self) -> float | None: + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + + @property + def community_prediction(self) -> NumericDistribution | None: + raise NotImplementedError("Not implemented") + @field_validator("declared_percentiles") def validate_percentiles_order( cls: NumericDistribution, percentiles: list[Percentile] diff --git a/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py b/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py index 5bbbf6e..0314ef7 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ def from_json(cls: type[T], json: dict) -> T: ) @classmethod - def convert_project_file_path_to_object_list( + def load_json_from_file_path( cls: type[T], project_file_path: str ) -> list[T]: return ( diff --git a/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py b/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py index bd988be..ecce848 100644 --- a/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py +++ b/front_end/app_pages/benchmark_page.py @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ async def _async_main(cls) -> None: if selected_file: corresponding_file_path = f"{cls.BENCHMARK_FOLDER}/{cls.BENCHMARK_FILES_TO_SHOW[selected_file]}" - reports = BinaryReport.convert_project_file_path_to_object_list( + reports = BinaryReport.load_json_from_file_path( corresponding_file_path ) cls.__display_deviation_scores(reports) diff --git a/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py b/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py index d651f83..58c6393 100644 --- a/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py +++ b/scripts/benchmark_forecast_bot.py @@ -3,10 +3,17 @@ import asyncio import logging +import typeguard + from forecasting_tools.ai_models.resource_managers.monetary_cost_manager import ( MonetaryCostManager, ) -from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.main_bot import MainBot +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import ( + ForecastBot, +) +from forecasting_tools.forecasting.forecast_bots.template_bot import ( + TemplateBot, +) from forecasting_tools.forecasting.helpers.benchmarker import Benchmarker from forecasting_tools.util.custom_logger import CustomLogger @@ -14,15 +21,22 @@ async def benchmark_forecast_bot() -> None: + questions_to_use = 2 with MonetaryCostManager() as cost_manager: - bot = MainBot() - benchmark = await Benchmarker().run_benchmark( - number_of_questions_to_use=100, - forecast_bots=[bot], + bots = [TemplateBot(), TemplateBot(), TemplateBot()] + bots = typeguard.check_type(bots, list[ForecastBot]) + benchmarks = await Benchmarker( + number_of_questions_to_use=questions_to_use, + forecast_bots=bots, file_path_to_save_reports="logs/forecasts/benchmarks/", - ) - logger.info(f"Total Cost: {cost_manager.current_usage}") - logger.info(f"Final Score: {benchmark.average_expected_log_score}") + ).run_benchmark() + for i, benchmark in enumerate(benchmarks): + logger.info(f"Benchmark {i+1} of {len(benchmarks)}") + logger.info(f"- Total Cost: {cost_manager.current_usage}") + logger.info( + f"- Final Score: {benchmark.average_inverse_expected_log_score}" + ) + logger.info(f"- Time taken: {benchmark.time_taken_in_minutes}") if __name__ == "__main__": diff --git a/scripts/gather_saved_reports.py b/scripts/gather_saved_reports.py index 8f64e01..613c3c9 100644 --- a/scripts/gather_saved_reports.py +++ b/scripts/gather_saved_reports.py @@ -54,9 +54,7 @@ async def gather_reports_for_date_range( all_reports: list[BinaryReport] = [] for file_name in target_files: file_path = os.path.join(absolute_forecast_path, file_name) - reports = BinaryReport.convert_project_file_path_to_object_list( - file_path - ) + reports = BinaryReport.load_json_from_file_path(file_path) all_reports.extend(reports) return all_reports diff --git a/scripts/show_saved_report_app.py b/scripts/show_saved_report_app.py index d50922e..77be7fa 100644 --- a/scripts/show_saved_report_app.py +++ b/scripts/show_saved_report_app.py @@ -17,9 +17,7 @@ def main() -> None: if file_path: st.divider() st.subheader("Reports:") - reports = BinaryReport.convert_project_file_path_to_object_list( - file_path - ) + reports = BinaryReport.load_json_from_file_path(file_path) ReportDisplayer.display_report_list(reports) From 0b54373328b0ca08440bbede66e1e3492bda425c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ben Wilson Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2024 05:08:58 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 3/6] Upddated readme again --- README.ipynb | 8 +++++--- README.md | 6 ++++-- 2 files changed, 9 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.ipynb b/README.ipynb index 8fa63cd..0323eaf 100644 --- a/README.ipynb +++ b/README.ipynb @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "code", - "execution_count": 2, + "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ "output_type": "stream", "text": [ "[NbConvertApp] Converting notebook README.ipynb to markdown\n", - "[NbConvertApp] Writing 32246 bytes to README.md\n", + "[NbConvertApp] Writing 32369 bytes to README.md\n", "┌──────────┬────────────┬───────────┐\n", "│ \u001b[1mlast_day\u001b[0m │ \u001b[1mlast_month\u001b[0m │ \u001b[1mlast_week\u001b[0m │\n", "├──────────┼────────────┼───────────┤\n", @@ -374,7 +374,9 @@ "# To/From Json String\n", "single_benchmark = benchmarks[0]\n", "json_object: dict = single_benchmark.to_json()\n", - "new_benchmark: BenchmarkForBot = BenchmarkForBot.from_json(json_object)\n" + "new_benchmark: BenchmarkForBot = BenchmarkForBot.from_json(json_object)\n", + "\n", + "# Note: Make sure to set the 'FILE_WRITING_ALLOWED' environment variable to true if you want to save the benchmarks to a file\n" ] }, { diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 9f633b2..a0bda50 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -209,11 +209,11 @@ Below is an example of how to run the benchmarker ```python from forecasting_tools import Benchmarker, TemplateBot, BenchmarkForBot -class MyCustomBot(TemplateBot): +class CustomBot(TemplateBot): ... # Run benchmark on multiple bots -bots = [TemplateBot(), MyCustomBot()] # Add your custom bots here +bots = [TemplateBot(), CustomBot()] # Add your custom bots here benchmarker = Benchmarker( forecast_bots=bots, number_of_questions_to_use=2, # Recommended 100+ for meaningful results @@ -273,6 +273,8 @@ single_benchmark = benchmarks[0] json_object: dict = single_benchmark.to_json() new_benchmark: BenchmarkForBot = BenchmarkForBot.from_json(json_object) +# Note: Make sure to set the 'FILE_WRITING_ALLOWED' environment variable to true if you want to save the benchmarks to a file + ``` ## Smart Searcher From 104e2a85619a241f8f6dab9bf0f442690e072feb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ben Wilson Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2024 05:40:33 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 4/6] Fixing unit test pydnatic bug --- forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py | 6 ++- front_end/helpers/tool_page.py | 4 +- poetry.lock | 69 ++++++++++++++++-------------- 3 files changed, 42 insertions(+), 37 deletions(-) diff --git a/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py b/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py index 0314ef7..eb29da1 100644 --- a/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py +++ b/forecasting_tools/util/jsonable.py @@ -33,7 +33,8 @@ def to_json(self) -> dict: @classmethod def from_json(cls: type[T], json: dict) -> T: if issubclass(cls, BaseModel): - return cls._pydantic_model_from_dict(cls, json) + pydantic_object = cls._pydantic_model_from_dict(cls, json) + return pydantic_object else: raise NotImplementedError( f"Class {cls.__name__} does not have a from_json method. This should be implemented in the subclass." @@ -80,4 +81,5 @@ def _pydantic_model_from_dict( cls_type: type[BaseModel], json_dict: dict ) -> Any: json_string: str = json.dumps(json_dict) - return cls_type.model_validate_json(json_string) + pydantic_object = cls_type.model_validate_json(json_string) + return pydantic_object diff --git a/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py b/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py index 333b97f..95bc139 100644 --- a/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py +++ b/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py @@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ import streamlit as st from pydantic import BaseModel -from forecasting_tools.util.file_manipulation import load_json_file from forecasting_tools.util.jsonable import Jsonable from front_end.helpers.app_page import AppPage @@ -102,8 +101,7 @@ async def _display_single_example_button( async def _get_examples(cls) -> list[Example]: if cls.EXAMPLES_FILE_PATH is None: return [] - examples_raw = load_json_file(cls.EXAMPLES_FILE_PATH) - examples = [Example.from_json(ex) for ex 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__dict__(self) -> dict: - return self.to_json() - def to_json(self) -> dict: if isinstance(self, BaseModel): return self._pydantic_model_to_dict(self) diff --git a/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py b/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py index 95bc139..ce24fef 100644 --- a/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py +++ b/front_end/helpers/tool_page.py @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) -class Example(Jsonable, BaseModel): +class Example(BaseModel, Jsonable): short_name: str | None = None notes: str | None = None input: dict[str, Any] From 3320b46c91680b80f40b79623c87cbf6fa159e62 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ben Wilson Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2024 05:49:24 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 6/6] Moved test_benchmarker --- .../test_benchmarker.py | 0 pyproject.toml | 2 +- 2 files changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) rename code_tests/{unit_tests/test_forecasting => low_cost_or_live_api_tests}/test_benchmarker.py (100%) diff --git a/code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_benchmarker.py b/code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py similarity index 100% rename from code_tests/unit_tests/test_forecasting/test_benchmarker.py rename to code_tests/low_cost_or_live_api_tests/test_benchmarker.py diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml index 6193cbe..18ee67c 100644 --- a/pyproject.toml +++ b/pyproject.toml @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ [tool.poetry] name = "forecasting-tools" -version = "0.2.3" +version = "0.2.4" description = "AI forecasting and research tools to help humans reason about and forecast the future" authors = ["Benjamin Wilson "] license = "MIT"