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前言
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1. 五个入门结论
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2. 学会换位思考
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3. 迭代剔除和中心选民定理
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4. 足球比赛和商业合作的最佳对策
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5. 纳什均衡：坏风气与银行挤兑
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6. 纳什均衡：约会与古诺模型
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7. 纳什均衡：伯川模型与选民投票
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8. 纳什均衡：立场选择、种族隔离
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9. 混合策略：网球比赛
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10. 混合策略：棒球、约合与付税
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11. 进化稳定：合作、冲突与平衡
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12. 进化稳定：社会公约、侵略和周期
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13. 顺序游戏：道德风险、奖励和饥饿狮子
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14. 落后的感应：间谍与先手优势
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15. 落后的感应：道德风险、战略和可信威胁
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16. 落后的感应：声誉和决斗
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17. 最后通牒和讨价还价
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18. 信息集和子博弈完美
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19. 招商引资和战略投资
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20. 战争的消耗
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21. 合作
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22. 作弊、惩罚与外包
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23. 沉默、信令和教育
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24. 拍卖和获奖者的诅咒
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术语表
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<a href="." >23. 沉默、信令和教育</a>
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<h1 id="lecture-23-signaling">Lecture 23 signaling</h1>
<p>这一讲主要讲的是<strong>非对称博弈</strong>。</p>
<p>一个小的例子，有两个公司参与商品的生产，B公司仅知道自己的产品生产价格，而A公司两个公司的生产价格都知道。问A公司是否向B公司公布？</p>
<p>我们知道，当A公司的生产价格大于B公司的时候，那么A公司一定会公布自己的生产价格，那么根据之前的古诺模型，B公司的最佳对策是降低自己的产量，A公司增加自己的产量。</p>
<p><strong>那么高价格时A是否要公开自己的价格呢？也要！</strong>因为如果不公开B公司通过简单推测，反而会知道A公司价格比自己公司价格高。</p>
<p>上面这种不论如何，都要公布自己生产价格的现象，被称之为information unraveling。</p>
<p>lesson:</p>
<p>有时候缺乏信息也是一种信息。（想想电影《动物世界》里面最后推理的对决）</p>
<p>其他的例子：</p>
<ul>
<li>美国人的简历所有的事都会写下来，如果自己不写的话，显得自己没有做义工，很自私。</li>
<li>卫生检查的牌子显摆出来。</li>
</ul>
<p>前面的例子中，信息可以是可以被证实的（verifiable）。</p>
<p>下面讲讲not verifiable，但是我们可以通过不同代价，来进行区分。</p>
<h2 id="costly-signaling">costly signaling</h2>
<p>一个好的员工G 50工作效率（人数占10%），差一点的员工B 30工作效率（占90%）。</p>
<p>公司将那些认为好的员工支付工资50，那些认为差的员工值赋工资30，无法辨认的工资为32。</p>
<p>一般通过学历进行辨认。</p>
<p>还有一种辨认的方式：</p>
<p>通过雇员获得MBA的职位来区分，对于G员工，产生的代价为5（不是学费的代价，而是机会成本的代价），而对于B员工，代价为10.01（不是机会成本，而是痛苦工作的代价）</p>
<p>假设花<strong>三年</strong>时间拿到MBA，G都能拿到，B都不能，那么这样的一个局面就是一种纳什均衡。</p>
<p>并且认为拿到MBA一定是好员工，没拿到就是差员工。</p>
<h3 id="验证">验证</h3>
<p>那么我们可以画出收益矩阵：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th>拿到MBA</th>
<th>没拿到</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>G</td>
<td>50-3*5=35 大于没拿到的</td>
<td>30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>B</td>
<td>50-10.01*3约等于20 小于没拿到的</td>
<td>30</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>通过某种机制，使得好的员工能够拿到更好的工资，而对减少差员工因为他们撒谎的工资。</p>
<p><strong>本质上是因为代价不同。</strong></p>
<p><div class="alert alert-success" style="display: table"><i class="fa fa-check" style="float: left; padding: 5px"></i><div style="margin-left: 32px"><p>一个好的证明指标，需要有<strong>足够的代价</strong>来区分不同的类别。</p>
<p>例子：学历贬值</p>
</div></div></p>
<h2 id="lesson-for-education">lesson for education</h2>
<p><div class="alert alert-success" style="display: table"><i class="fa fa-check" style="float: left; padding: 5px"></i><div style="margin-left: 32px"><ol>
<li>这是一个悲观的模型——这个模型中没有考虑学历的因素。因此都不用学习了，这样就没痛苦了。</li>
<li>社会浪费，还是一样的原因，学历没有在区分中起到作用。</li>
</ol>
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