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OSINT for War Analysis & Geopolitics

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Jieyab edited this page Sep 7, 2024 · 1 revision

OSINT for War Analysis

Analyzing warfare or conflict is not an easy thing, there are many challenges that investigators must do in analyzing warfare. As we know OSINT is not as easy and simple as you imagine, tough challenges such as the amount of information, miss information, propaganda and other things

Finding geolocation is also not an easy too, as well as finding information that relates to events or events, researchers are required to be observant in analyzing geolocation, especially at night or lack of information on objects or events to be analyzed such as

  1. Problems with satellite analysis limited information and lack of recent data
  2. Lack of information
  3. Event was taken at night
  4. Lack of graphic quality in pictures or videos
  5. There are manipulations in the video such as editing, cutting video, audio and other things
  6. Lack of GIS information in the conflict area
  7. Propaganda and hoax content and miss information

The Challenge

  1. Propaganda and hoax content and miss information
  2. Knowing the background of the conflict problem
  3. Understand the geography, social characteristics and conflict-affected areas
  4. Widening conflict information
  5. Understand astronomy and measurement science (MASINT)
  6. Takes a long time
  7. Mental

Tips and Trick

  1. Understand your mental and physical health
  2. Determine your convenient time, I personally like at night like noctrunal animals like bats, owls
  3. Understand the area, climate, building structure, social, problems in the conflict area first
  4. Archive and record your discovered sources
  5. Use the 3d buliding app (it's already available in this repo)
  6. Take measurements and verify the time when it was taken
  7. Use satellite remote sensing like Nasa firms, EO browser, etc
  8. Take reliable sources such as credebitlas sites, posts, and other things that have evidence, theoretical foundations and scientific results
  9. Critical thinking. Especially about big, inflammatory claims. When big news breaks, we see a lot of recycled footage posted on social media. Recycled footage is footage from another conflict or time period that is publicized as if it were from a current event. Often details in the footage such as signage or other details in the surroundings can provide clues as to the actual time or place the video was taken
  10. Beware of manipulation and AI generation, When all the footage or photos related to an event go viral, you often see accounts popping up that spread manipulated or completely fake images. Free and easily accessible AI-powered image creation tools have now made this type of content faster to create and more common
  11. Beware of state actors, who Sometimes Share Fabricated or Unreliable Footage In times of conflict, it is not unusual for state actors to imply bad faith on the part of their adversaries. In some cases, doctored videos appear online
  12. Protect your mental health watching footage from war zones can cause trauma. Be careful when watching unknown footage. There is almost always a lot of highly disturbing content circulating during times of conflict
  13. Racing to be first at all costs it's easy to get caught up in the maelstrom of breaking news, especially around terror attacks and military conflicts. The incentives of social media platforms, where most public open-source research is conducted, encourage this behavior. There is a great temptation to be the first to make a 'breakthrough' in a developing story, or to quickly create an analysis of an event. However, validating content should always take precedence over speed

Satellite Imagery

Satellites are one of the most useful resources in an open-source investigator's toolkit. However, eye-in-the-sky imagery can be used for more than just mapping and geolocation. Some satellites also carry instruments with sensors that detect heat - and the data they generate can be used to monitor war zones. NASA's Fire Information System for Resource Management, or FIRMS, is a tool that detects active fires and thermal anomalies

Satellite images that can detect climate change and fires are commonly referred to as remote sensing satellites. Some satellites that are often used for this purpose include:

  1. Landsat satellites: Uses sensors such as the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) that help monitor changes in land use, vegetation and fires.

  2. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellites: Attached to the Terra and Aqua satellites, MODIS provides data on surface temperature, humidity and fire.

  3. Suomi NPP Satellite: Uses instruments like VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) to detect fires and monitor climate change.

  4. Sentinel-2 satellite: Part of the Copernicus program, providing high-resolution imagery to monitor changes in land use, vegetation and fires.

  5. GOES satellites (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites): Monitor weather in real-time, including major fires and climate-related weather changes.

You can read the documentation to understand the source of the imagery, basically the imagery will provide you with information, make sure you know how to measure, set up, search for satellite data to facilitate your investigation

These satellites provide very useful data for climate analysis, wildfire monitoring and other environmental studies.

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