ClimateAction.nlogo

;; Global parameters/variables
;; emis_tick_cumulative: total emissions in the atmosphere
;; emis_tick
;; emis_tick_negative
;; per_person_emis: emissions per capita per time step
globals [emis_tick_cumulative emis_tick emis_tick_negative per_person_emis social_tipping_point earth_system_tipping_point]

;; Two types of agents (breeds)
breed [VIPs influencer]
breed [population people]

;; Attributes of population agents:
;; status: activist, denier, neutral
;; energy: level of activism of agent
population-own [status energy]

;; Set up the world
to setup-patches
  ask patches [
    set pcolor black
  ]
end

;; Define agents
to setup
  clear-all
  create-population initial-number-of-agents
  create-VIPs initial-number-of-influencers

  ;; Emission-level starts at 410ppm (today's level of CO2 in atmosphere)
  set emis_tick_cumulative 410
  ;; Normal population emit 0.02ppm per time period. Activist reduce their personal emissions (on average) to 0
  set per_person_emis 0.02
  ;; Emission removal technologies remove emis_tick_negative per time period
  set emis_tick_negative -0.5
  ;;; With at least 60% of population being activists: negative emission technology takes effect
  set social_tipping_point 0.6
  ;;; At a level of 1200ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, the Earth System reaches a tipping point and the game ends
  set earth_system_tipping_point 1200


  ask population [
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
    set shape "person"
    let random_prob random-float 1
    (ifelse
      random_prob <= 0.2 [ set status "denier" ]
      random_prob > 0.2 AND random_prob < 0.8 [ set status "neutral" ]
      random_prob >= 0.8 [ set status "activist" ]
    )

    if status = "activist" [
      set color blue
      set energy 90
    ]
    if status = "neutral" [
      set color white
      set energy 50
    ]
    if status = "denier" [
      set color red
      set energy 10
    ]
  ]

  ask VIPs [
    setxy random-xcor random-ycor
    set shape "car"
    set color green
  ]

  setup-patches
  reset-ticks
end

to move-population
  ask population [
    right random 360
    fd 1
    encounter
  ]
end

;; Influencers move faster than population
to move-VIPs
  ask VIPs [
    left random 360
    fd 5
    VIPradius
  ]
end

;; Influencers add energy to people in their surrounding (prevent switching to deniers)
to VIPradius
    ask population in-radius 3 [
    set energy energy + energy_inc
 ]
end

to encounter

  if status = "activist" [
    ask other population-here [
      if random-float 1 < Activitst-Convincing-Power [
        set energy energy + energy_inc
         if energy > 70 [
           set status "activist"
          set color blue
        ]
      ]
    ]
 ]

  if status = "denier" [
   ask other population-here [
     if random-float 1 < Denier-Convincing-Power [
       set energy energy - energy_dec
        if energy < 30 [
          set status "denier"
          set color red
       ]
     ]
   ]
 ]

end

to energy_check_post_vip
  ask population[
  if energy <= 30 [
      set status "denier"
      set color red
    ]
  if (energy > 30) AND (energy < 70) [
      set status "neutral"
      set color white
    ]
  if energy >= 70 [
      set status "activist"
      set color blue
    ]
  ]
end

;;; Start the simulation
to go
  move-population
  move-VIPs
  energy_check_post_vip
  set emis_tick per_person_emis * count population with [status != "activist"]
  tick
  set emis_tick_cumulative emis_tick_cumulative + emis_tick
  if (count population with [status = "activist"] / count population) > 0.6 AND emis_tick_cumulative > 0 [
   set emis_tick_cumulative emis_tick_cumulative + emis_tick_negative
  ]
  if emis_tick_cumulative >= 1200 [ stop ]
end

;;; Go one time step
to start
  move-population
  move-VIPs
  energy_check_post_vip
  set emis_tick per_person_emis * count population with [status != "activist"]
  tick
  set emis_tick_cumulative emis_tick_cumulative + emis_tick
  if (count population with [status = "activist"] / count population) > social_tipping_point AND emis_tick_cumulative > 0 [
   set emis_tick_cumulative emis_tick_cumulative + emis_tick_negative
  ]
  if emis_tick_cumulative >= earth_system_tipping_point [ stop ]
end
@#$#@#$#@
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@#$#@#$#@
## WHAT IS IT?

The Climate Action ABM is a simple agent-based model. It models the role of
climate activists, climate deniers and the power of influencers in a society.

CO2 emissions per capita depend on the agents state of mind (activists emit less
compared to the general population or climate deniers).
If a certain share of the population is climate-aware (activist state),
carbon removal technologies are used. This is a social tipping point. 

The global level of CO2 in the atmosphere starts at 410ppm. At a state of
1200ppm Earth System tipping points are reached and humanity ends.


## HOW IT WORKS

There are two types of agents (people and influencers). 
People move around randomly.
Influencer (VIPs), represented by the car symbol, also move randomly, but faster. They move several steps in one time step, while people, represented by the person symbol, move only 1 step. 

The population (people) are divided into activists (blue), neutral (white) and deniers (red). Each agent is endowed with a certain level of activism energy. If activism energy is greater than 70, the person is declared activist, if it is below 30, the person is declared denier. All other are neutral individuals. 
Initially, 20% of the population are deniers, 20% activists and 60% neutral individuals.

Here, the names are only representative and can be elaborated/generalized as follows:
* "activist" are agents with considerable knowledge about climate change, are empathetic, care about the environment, convince others to make better choices to avoid envronmental degradation.
* "neutral" are agents with or without considerable knowledge about climate change. These agents are indifferent towards impacts of climate change. In real world, such elements in population probably exist in large numbers. These agents don't convince others to think any differently but are persuaded by others.
* "deniers" are agents who don't believe in climate change, are not empathetic, do not care about the environment, and engage in actively denouncing the existence of climate change.
* "influencer" are agent(s) which are similar to "activist" but these agents have a higher reach or engagement with normal population. These agent(s) help in moving public consensus about climate change by virtue of talking publically about perils of climate change and the damages it can do for future generations. Influencer(s) also make sure that misinformation about climate change is not propagated in their vicinity or influence circle.

When an activists meets another person, the other person's activism energy increases. When a denier meets another person, the other person's activism energy decreases. 

Influencer increase the energy of people in their surrounding (3-pixel radius) by the same amount as activists and therefore support activists and hinder spreading of misinformation, consipiracy theories and climate scepticism. 

Every agent (except for activists) emits 0.02ppm CO2 per time step. Activists don't emit CO2.
When carbon removal technology comes into place (above social tipping point: support of 60% of population), 0.5ppm CO2 are removed from the atmosphere per time step.  

## HOW TO USE IT

The setup button sets up the world (initialization of game according to selected settings).
The go button starts the simulation run.
The start button lets agents make one step.

The user can set 
(a) the initial number of agents in a range between 1 billion represented by 100 turtles (population at around 1900) and 10 billion represented by 1000 turtles (potential population by the end of the century).  
(b) the initial number of influencers in a range between 0 and 5.
(c) the activits (deniers) convincing power, i.e. the probability that the activits (denier) convinces the person they met (between 0 and 1)
(d) the activits (deniers) level of activism they add (subtract) from the person they meet energy_inc (energy_dec)

## THINGS TO NOTICE

In the standard setting (7.5 billion people (750), 10 mio. influencers (1), same convincing power for activists and deniers), it is possible to hit the Earth System Tipping Point before the Social Tipping Point allowing decarbonization (carbon removal) is reached. However, there is also a chance that humanity survives. 

There are strategies to decrease the likelihood of human extinction (population size, number of influencers, power of activists)


## THINGS TO TRY

- Increase the population: How much faster is the Earth System Tipping Point reached with higher population size? (Analyze risk of over-population)
- Increase the activists convinving power or energy_inc relative to the power of the deniers. (Analyze the effect of Science Communication)
- Play with the number of influencers. (Role of social media)


## EXTENDING THE MODEL

Potential extensions include:
- population expansion scenarios (e.g. increase of population over time)
- make all model parameters flexible (social-tipping-point, earth-system-tipping-point, initial co2 in atmosphere, emissions per capita)
- include social networks and clusters (deniers have higher likelihood to meet deniers, activits higher likelihood to interact with activits)
- include extreme events
- include technological break-throughs

## NETLOGO FEATURES

- Netlogo interface, buttons and output graphs

## RELATED MODELS

Potentially similar models in the NetLogo Library are
- Altruism
- HIV

## CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Developed by Felicitas Beier and Abhijeet Mishra
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@#$#@#$#@
NetLogo 6.2.0
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<experiments>
  <experiment name="ConvincingPower" repetitions="5" runMetricsEveryStep="true">
    <setup>setup</setup>
    <go>go</go>
    <timeLimit steps="500"/>
    <exitCondition>emis_tick_cumulative = 0</exitCondition>
    <metric>count population with [status = "denier"]</metric>
    <metric>count population with [status = "neutral"]</metric>
    <metric>count population with [status = "activist"]</metric>
    <metric>emis_tick_cumulative</metric>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-of-influencers">
      <value value="1"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="energy_dec">
      <value value="10"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <steppedValueSet variable="Denier-Convincing-Power" first="0" step="0.2" last="1"/>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="initial-number-of-agents">
      <value value="750"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <enumeratedValueSet variable="energy_inc">
      <value value="10"/>
    </enumeratedValueSet>
    <steppedValueSet variable="Activitst-Convincing-Power" first="0" step="0.2" last="1"/>
  </experiment>
</experiments>
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